Weekly Roundup: Fallout from Romania's Election and Other Stories
May 8, 2025
Romania Slides into Political Crisis (again)
Fallout from the first round of the presidential elections continues in Romania. This week Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu resigned as his PSD party left the ruling coalition causing the government to collapse. He explained the decision saying:
"The coalition was formed in December with two goals: to ensure a stable government with a parliamentary majority and to nominate a single candidate for the post of President of Romania. One of these goals was not achieved.”
The former PM went on the state that the coalition had lost their legitimacy because of this and that a new government would need to be formed. He also stated that PSD will not support any candidate in the second round elections calling on supporters to vote their conscience.
The remaining government has appointed an interim prime minister who will serve for between 2 weeks and 45 days. The interim cabinet’s powers will be restricted to administering state affairs as a new government is formed. This move opens up the likelihood that the new president will play a role in appointing the prime minister1.
Adding to the political crisis is an evolving run on the Romanian leu. Simion’s victory in the first round caused massive sales of Romania’s currency as people sought to change money to euros. This resulted in the leu falling to a record low against the euro - 5.09 lei / 1 euro. The National Bank of Romania spent 2 billion euros to prop up the currency as of May 6th and there are indications that they have continued spending as the leu continued to fall. JP Morgan has informed its clients that Simion’s first round victory could result in a 6 lei / 1 euro exchange rate.
Second Round Polls and Analysis
Newly released polls show George Simion with 54.8% of decided voters against Nicușor Dan’s 45.2%. Analysis of the voting patterns in the first round shows that there aren’t enough pro-European voters to get Nicușor Dan across the finish line. The demographics of the first round heavily favor Simion meaning that only through mass mobilization of pro-EU voters who did not vote in the first round does Nicușor Dan have a chance of victory.
Moldovan Reactions
President of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) Igor Grosu announced that the party will support Nicușor Dan in the runoff election. He stated:
"In the second round of the presidential elections, the Action and Solidarity Party expresses its support for candidate Nicușor Dan, a person who has committed to helping the Republic of Moldova and our citizens as President of Romania and who has promised to be the firm advocate of Chișinău in all European capitals."
"Dear Bessarabians, your heart beats with great love for the Romanian nation, for the common European future of the citizens on both banks of the Prut. On May 18, every vote will count in the election of the President of Romania. You value freedom and democracy, and your voice will be essential for a strong Romania in the European Union, which will be our constant support in the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the EU and the reliable friend for all citizens of the Republic of Moldova”
Meanwhile, Igor Dodon, speaking to Russian state broadcaster TASS, stated:
"They [Romanians] want to see a leader at the head of Romania who will defend their own sovereignty and national interests, and not try to please Brussels for the purpose of their future employment. (…) Romania, judging by the mood of its voters, is following in the wake of Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, forming new elites in Europe that support the United States,"
International Affairs
Here’s a roundup of the other top international affairs stories of the week:
Maia Sandu spoke at the European People’s Party (EPP) congress in Spain last week. At the event she spoke of the need for Moldova and Ukraine to join the EU “not only because they naturally belong to it, but also because Europe will become stronger, safer and more united by accepting those who fight for its values.” She held bilateral meetings with other heads of state from EPP linked parties and she called on the congress to support Moldova in the context of upcoming parliamentary elections saying:
"The threats have not gone away. Moldova will have new elections this year – and Russia will try to steal them again. The stakes are even higher: parliamentary elections that will decide whether we stay on the European path or fall victim to foreign influence.
Russia's goals have not changed. It wants to turn Moldova into a corridor of influence and use it against Ukraine - along a border that stretches over 1,200 kilometers, the longest of all of Ukraine's neighbors,"
The EU has extended sanctions against individuals and organizations seeking to destabilize Moldova for another year. These sanctions, which target Ilan Shor, members of the Shor party, Vladimir Plahotniuc, Shor’s NGO Eurasia and others prevent them from entering the EU and freezes any assets that they might have in the block2.
The United States has reversed course and canceled Romania’s inclusion in the visa waiver program citing “security concerns.” The Romanian authorities noted that they completed all necessary steps to be included in the program and called the move a “political decision.” George Simion seemed to confirm this fact stating that the real reason for canceling the visa free travel regime was the cancelation of last November’s presidential elections. He stated that "I'm telling you directly from the source, from people in the Trump administration who directly dealt with this file." This implies that the Trump administration is actively supporting Simion and that Simion himself has, on his trips to the United States, failed to argue for Romania’s inclusion in the program preferring to use it as political leverage. This US decision has a direct impact on around half a million Moldovans holding dual citizenship who might have hoped to travel to the United States.
Political News
Here’s a roundup of the top political stories of the last week:
Parliament passed a bill to expand vote by mail for the diaspora. The bill, which has been passed in the first reading, would expand the vote by mail program to include Japan and Australia. Diaspora voters in those countries would join those in the United States, Canada, Norway, Sweden, the Finland and Iceland in being able to vote by mail. The bill also seeks to implement various measures aimed at collecting and counting mail ballots more efficiently.
Moldova fell 4 places in the Reporters without Borders (RSF) annual press freedom rankings (2024). The slide comes in the context of RSF reporting a global decline in press freedoms as the global average ranking fell to an all time low. Moldova’s ranking of 35th of 180 countries remains strong and is by far the highest ranking in the region. Romania ranked 55th, Ukraine 62nd and the United States 57th. Norway came in #1 with Estonia at #2. Marking Press Freedom Day President Sandu thanked journalists and called attention to the important work of the free press saying:
"In the past year, we have seen with our own eyes how important investigative journalism is. Thanks to courageous reporters, the entire society learned how criminal groups tried, through corruption, to steal the future of this country."
Igor Dodon has proposed renaming the Party of Socialists as the Party of Sovereignists3. No decision has yet been made but he explained that the discussion within the party has begun. He explained the move saying:
"If you look at the trends in Europe and our neighbors, the doctrine we are promoting is more sovereigntist than socialist. Because European socialists are a left-wing force that supports or does not oppose LGBT and other such things. Such are socialists in Europe and in the world. And we do not promote such ideas. We promote completely different, more conservative values"
Renato Usatii announced that “Our Party” would change their logo to a bunch of grapes. He explained the move saying: “This is a symbol that does not need to be explained or translated. It is a symbol of labor, roots and traditions. A symbol of fertility, family and harvest. This is a symbol of Moldova, for which we are fighting,"
Former PAS MP Olesea Stamate announced that she would support a Socialist initiative to set up an independent commission to investigate the scandal around the amnesty law. Stamate had previously started her own initiative in parliament but found no backing from her former party. She called on them to support the Socialist initiative saying that she hopes they are “not afraid of the truth.”
Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban has announced that he opposes the holding of the annual Pride March in the city. He stated that he is “personally against the propaganda of homosexuality in Chisinau and throughout the country. This position has not changed for many years." The mayor also proposed an order banning "LGBT propaganda in schools" to the city council saying "We think that all children in our country deserve different information and approaches to different topics. And this topic is not a priority." The mayor has no authority to ban peaceful protests in the city - Mayor Ceban makes similar statements each year.
Parliament has again tightened penalties for voter bribery. Individuals who bribe a voter now face fines of up to 57,500 lei and up to 5 years in prison. Those who bribe voters “on behalf of a criminal organization” face fines up to 117,500 lei and up to 15 years in prison. Those convicted will also face bans on holding public office for some years (depending on the offense). Penalties for illicit financing of political parties have also increased and allow for sentences of up to 15 years in prison.
Moldova will create a new National Anti-Fraud System to monitor the use of EU funds. This is a requirement for obtaining EU financial aid. It will involve a new monitoring structure as well as a mechanism to bring together various agencies to monitor spending and procurement.
PAS MP Lilian Carp registered 2 bills in parliament to strengthen presidential power in the field of national security. The first bill proposes to move the “Center for Strategic Communications and Countering Disinformation” (STRATCOM) under presidential authority and to rename it the “Center for Strategic Communications and Containing Disinformation.” STRATCOM would still report to parliament but would also report to the Supreme Security Council. The second bill would substantially increase the power of the Supreme Security Council, which is headed by the president, to make it "the central decision-making body in the field of national security." This bill would turn the advisory council into an executive body by granting it binding powers in national security affairs. According to the draft law:
"to ensure the effectiveness of its decisions, the Council may ask state institutions and the private sector to take additional measures to ensure national security, including in the areas of justice, economy, energy, finance and critical infrastructure."
The Ministry of Education has mandated that all schools show the film “Siberia din Oase” (Siberia from Bones) to grades 5-12 on May 8th. The Moldovan film chronicles the Soviet deportations of 1949 by following 4 individuals through the tumult of those times. The Socialist Party has loudly objected to the screening noting that it is being shown a day before Victory Day and saying:
"We consider it absolutely unacceptable to use schools and children for political propaganda. Attempts to rewrite history and sow hostility are especially dangerous when this is done through the consciousness of the younger generation,"
May Day marked in Moldova. President Sandu and Prime Minister Recean both made statements on the May 1st holiday thanking workers and highlighting those in various professions who work to make their communities a better place. Igor Dodon and the Socialists gathered for a traditional red-banner May Day rally but chose not to focus on labor issues but instead to attack the government, sing Soviet songs including Katiusha4, and call for a Moldova that is friends with “Russia and with Europe, but with a Europe without LGBT." Dodon promised his supporters that they would win parliamentary elections and organize early presidential elections to remove Maia Sandu from power.
Shor MP Vasile Bolea made a statement to the press 5 days after his child called the police to report that "daddy attacked mommy.” He denied assaulting his wife, blaming the situation on his wife having a “nervous breakdown.” He claimed that he was trying to “immobilize her” but struggled to explain why he did so by seizing her hands and feet and pinning her to the floor. He claims that his family has been under “pressure” from state institutions for 7-8 months, that they are being monitored and that “I am convinced that even the phones are tapped.” He claims that his wife lost her job of 20 years at MoldPress and that this, and a summons by the anti-corruption police about a situation from 2008, pushed her over the edge. If Bolea was attempting to garner sympathy, he quickly reverted to form saying "I'm surprised that the representatives of pederast and lesbian organizations have come out with some statements and positions" and calling on those criticizing him to “mind their own business.” Police have referred the case to a judge who will decide on extending the active restraining order and sentencing him to community service. He also risks being included in the registry of “family aggressors.” The case has continued to spark public discourse with legal experts noting that the politician who so loudly promotes the “traditional family” lost all credibility when he was filmed pinning his crying wife to the floor with force.
Shor and Hybrid Warfare
Here are the top stories on Russia’s hybrid war against Moldova from the week:
Investigative outlet “Little Country” has reported that Plahotniuc secretly traveled to Moscow in summer 2024. The purpose of the meeting was a meeting with Kremlin fixer Dmitry Kozak to discuss Plahotniuc’s return to Moldovan politics. His trip to Russia lasted 9 days and was facilitated by former Russian diplomat Vladislav Darvai who is speculated to be Plahotniuc’s handler. The outlet obtained and published audio recordings related to his visit and reported that various options were discussed for returning Plaha to Moldovan politics but that no final decision had been made by Putin. Russia refused to respond to Moldova’s request for information about the visit and continues not to respond to requests to extradite Shor. Recall: in March 2025 Plahotniuc’s trial in absentia began in Moscow over his alleged laundering of $2.7 billion dollars in the “Russian Laundromat” scheme. The Kremlin has not previously favored Plahotniuc but Little Country quoted Darvai as saying that without him Moldovan politics are “chaos.”
Investigative outlet Cu Sens released the names of 8 Shor activists who participated in paramilitary trainings in Russia. This story dates from October 2024 when police raided local Shor offices and found evidence that around 100 young people were sent to training at a bordering school outside of Moscow under the pretext of a “cultural and tourist program”. There they learned tactics in riot instigation, trained with weapons, bomb-making and the use of drones. Moldova Matters wrote about this story at the time. Cu Sens reported the names of 8 participants for the first time - all of them young people with leadership positions in Shor-linked parties. All of them are currently free and none are subject to ongoing criminal cases. Prosecutors commented saying that multiple people related to this story are being monitored but that they have not yet committed a provable crime. Cu Sens further reported that there are increasingly “small, discreet groups” of young people at Shor protests who watch the proceedings without chanting or posters. The outlet speculates that trained provocateurs remain in place ready to be used during the parliamentary elections.
Minister of Education Dan Perciun announced that he has received information about teachers taking trips to Russia organized by Shor’s Eurasia NGO. The ministry called such trips actions that are part of a “hybrid war” and warned schools against:
"activities of a militaristic, chauvinistic or nationalist-extremist propaganda nature, as well as those that promote interethnic hate speech or revisionist attitudes"
Economics & Infrastructure
Here are the top economics and infrastructure stories of the week:
The Ministry of Economy has proposed a bill allowing for digital receipts. The bill would create a framework for digital cash registers on phones and computers that can issue electronic receipts (eBon Fiscal) via email or SMS. The virtual cash registers will cost around 75 lei / month, substantially less than maintaining physical registers and is hoped to support small and medium sized companies, especially in rural areas. This bill would also revolutionize service based e-commerce by omitting the current requirement for paper receipts.
As of May 1st the airport has taken over management of retail space within the departure and arrival zones. Management asks for patience as the old concession company moves out and renovations begin to expand the departures area and add new retail offerings. This is among the last steps in the government’s effort to reassert control over the airport after the 99 year lease to a Shor linked company was terminated.
Transnistrian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky has said that with the end of the heating season the region has enough natural gas to restart heavy industry. He thanked Russia for lending the region gas and the EU for their critical support from February 1-10. He stated that "Ultimately, the bottom line is that it is the Russian Federation that is lending to us. We are buying gas through European, so to speak, platforms, but with the help of Russia." There are currently no details on the terms of this loan contract between Russia and Transnistria. Krasnoselsky went on to blame the Chisinau government for the energy crisis, etc, etc.
This issue of Moldova Matters is supported by Rotary Club Cosmopolitan — Club Secretary Luc Vocks invites you to join an English-speaking (mostly) expat club that meets weekly to hear from engaging speakers and enjoy some light networking. If you're curious to learn more or would like to attend a meeting as a guest, feel free to contact l.vocks@developmentaid.org.
In Romania the president formally appoints a candidate for prime minister “after consultation with the parties.” In theory the president should appoint someone who has the backing of the parliamentary majority or who is capable of getting that support. If parliament fails to ratify a new government twice then the president may dissolve parliament and call early elections. So if Simion won, he could theoretically try and force the dissolution of parliament in the hopes of AUR gaining more votes in a new parliamentary election and being able to form a government.
Based on constitutional norms, this would be quite radical. But it’s not unheard of - back in Spring 2021 this is exactly the standoff that happened between newly elected president Maia Sandu and parliament. If you want to read more about those events, and the constitutional crisis that resulted, see these Weekly Roundups from the time: March 12, March 19, March 26, April 2, April 9, April 16, April 23, April 25 (Constitutional Crisis begins), April 30 (elections called)
Recall that Emma Marechal has previously reported for Moldova Matters on how these sanctions are porous and still allow Shor and his allies to hire lobbyists to represent their interests, or attack Moldova’s, in European capitals:
I wrote more about this move, as well as the trend that it represents here:
This is a WW2 era Soviet war song that inspired the naming of the famous Katiusha multiple rocket launches. It is a war anthem today and has been picked up by Shor’s supporters at their rallies. If you want an idea of the creepy militarism of Russia these days see this recording of the song on youtube.