Perspective: Romania's Election May Herald a Political Realignment in Moldova
May 2, 2025
On Sunday May 4th Romanians go to the polls to vote in the first round of their presidential elections. These elections are a rerun of the November 24th, 2024 presidential elections that were later canceled by the Romanian Constitutional Court over concerns of foreign (Russian) interference. The top 2 candidates receiving the most votes on Sunday will go on to a second round vote on May 18th. In some places the polls are already open as the Romanian diaspora around the world, and Romanian citizens in Moldova, head to the polls.
I’ve already written about how the stakes of this election are high for Moldova. Given the war in Ukraine, brewing trouble in the Balkans and global uncertainty caused by trade wars and America’s waning commitment to European security, it is more important than ever for Moldova and Romania to maintain a close relationship. Romania is by far Moldova’s top supporter and partner in the EU and the ties of geography, culture and language intertwine the countries’ national interests.
Recently, all Romanian presidential candidates were asked in a debate what they would do should Moldova be invaded. Their answers differed but most agreed that this outcome needed to be prevented by supporting Moldova’s EU accession. None voiced support for military support on behalf of Moldova though some promised humanitarian aid or to receive refugees. The fact of the question alone highlights the stakes.
In this subscriber only article I’m going to briefly unpack where the race stands now and how it’s being viewed in Moldova. Then, I want to dive into a discussion of *how* this race has been unfolding and what it might foreshadow in Moldova’s parliamentary elections this fall.
These elections indicate that something has fundamentally changed geopolitically. Where there were once Pro-European candidates vs nationalists and Euroskeptics now there is a new force, or at least a new brand, “Sovereigntists.” This grouping does not look to Brussels or Moscow for support - but to Washington, or, more appropriately, Mar-a-Lago.
