Shor Closes his “Social Projects” in Moldova
The end of an era? Not quite. The fugitive oligarch signaled that he’s wrapping up operations in Moldova. Experts see a change in the Kremlin’s strategy.
On December 1st Ilan Shor broadcast a video message where he stood against a gray background and announced the closure of his “social projects” in Moldova. In it he said (in part):
“Today, with a heavy heart, I announce that I am forced to close my social projects in Moldova, which have helped people survive all this time. [...] The funds we transfer are being completely blocked, our employees are being arrested - you all see and know this,”
“We are creating a common national front that will resist. [...] We will not abandon or forget our people. The second goal is to overthrow the regime. Assistance to people and social projects will resume in full as soon as the government, which persecutes people simply because we help them, changes,”
Shor claimed that over $50 million USD in social aid had been blocked by the government in the last 6 months alone.
Asked by Newsmaker for comment on the video, Presidential Press Secretary Igor Zakharov replied:
“We cannot comment on the lies of a convicted criminal who is hiding from justice in an authoritarian regime and is attempting to destabilize Moldova with dirty money,”
What Social Programs?
Over the last decade Shor’s network sought to built a popular movement by providing various services to the rural poor. Many of these were simply aspects of his voter bribery networks, but some included programs for subsidized utilities and other costs in the areas his party controlled. Most visible was his “Merișor” network of shops (some mobile) that sold products at or below market cost to pensioners (while largely ignoring food safety requirements).
Shor’s announcement that these programs were being shuttered was immediately followed by signals that parts of his broader network was also closing up shop.
Mayors Resign
On December 2nd, one day after Shor’s announcement, Orhei Mayor Tatiana Cociu announced her resignation. If you recall, she’s been missing now for months and was rumored to be in Moscow hiding from the Moldovan authorities.
Following her announcement, on December 3rd Taraclia Mayor Veaceslav Lupov also announced his resignation. He also claimed that the “authorities” were blocking their social projects and promised to return after “the fall of the Sandoval regime.” Local media outlet Tuk had just recently reported that Mayor Lupov had also not been to work in some time. Apparently, on June 2nd he flew to Istanbul before heading on to Moscow. He never returned. In that time he had been digitally signing papers and after he burned through all his paid vacation filed for unpaid leave 10 times.
The End of the Shor Era?
All this news started a lot of speculation that Shor is out of favor in the Kremlin after having lost the parliamentary elections. Various pundits suggested that the closure of these projects, mayoral resignations and the ongoing political realignment in Gagauzia indicate that the Shor network is ending.
Asked about this, President Sandu stated:
“Unfortunately, I don’t think Moscow is changing its attitude toward Moldova. We would like to have normal relations, we would like to be sure that the Kremlin doesn’t interfere in our internal affairs, but as we’ve seen in recent years, including after the elections, the Kremlin’s attitude hasn’t changed,”
Experts interviewed by Newsmaker all believed that this represents a change in tactics by the Kremlin - not a change in goals. Valeriu Pașa of Watchdog pulled back the camera and looked at the development in regional terms saying:
“Russia is preparing for a hybrid war of attrition against the pro-European idea in the Republic of Moldova, and voter corruption is too expensive to maintain until the next elections. All Russian investments will now go into propaganda and proxy parties,
Let’s not interpret Shor’s reduction in activities in the Republic of Moldova as his removal from the Kremlin’s favor. The Shor group has become very active in Kyrgyzstan, where elections are coming up. Similarly, the so-called Eurasia organization is quite active in Armenia, where important parliamentary elections will be held in 2026. Probably, budgets will also be directed primarily towards these states”
So is that the end of the Shor network in Moldova? Most likely not. But it’s very possible that Ilan Shor will no longer be the face of Kremlin interference in Moldova.
Perhaps the newsletter section titled “Shor & Hybrid War Updates” will just become “Hybrid War Update.” We’ll se…
Drone Incursions Close Moldovan Airspace
On the night of November 29th two drones again entered Moldovan airspace. Their flights took them over central Moldova and resulted in the temporary closure of the national airspace leading to flight delays. The drones were tracked by the Ministry of Defense’s Aviation Operations Service in collaboration with Moldovan and Ukrainian border guards. They were not detected on Moldovan radars. You can see the approximate flight path as published on the nightly map of attacks against Ukraine:
The drones disrupted air traffic leading a flight from Barcelona to Chisinau to divert to Bacău, Romania. Other flights faced ground delays or landing delays as they waited outside affected airspace.
Moldova joins the growing list of European countries that are forced to shut down their airports for a time due to Russian drone incursions. This week Vilnius airport shut down due to a suspicious balloon. While Russia allegedly has launched drone incursions in Western Europe from “civilian” shipping, Moldova’s proximity to the nightly bombardment of Ukraine means it is easy to divert a few drones across Moldova. Its important to note that the intensity of drone attacks against Ukraine has not increased in recent weeks - but the number that stray into Moldova has changed, at exactly the same time Western European countries grapple with the same issue.
The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, responded to the news out of Moldova with a post on X saying:
“Violations of Moldovan airspace by Russian drones are unacceptable and threaten civilian air traffic. This year, the EU will invest €20 million in Moldova’s air defense to strengthen the country’s security. Moldova’s skies cannot become a victim of a war unleashed by Russia,”
When you find a drone you should…
…NOT take it home. Unfortunately, that’s what a man did in a small village in Sîngerei this week. The man found a drone in a field that crashed on November 29th and on December 3rd he decided to take it home.
Alarmed, villagers noticed a man towing a drone behind his motobloc (2 wheeled tractor) and they called the mayor - who then called the police. Mayor Oleg Cernei stated that the man had acted “out of ignorance” and in a later interview, the man, named Gheorghe Manoilă, stated:
“I thought of it like this in my head to bring it to Town Hall. I said: ‘It’s a plane, it’s definitely a plane’. What, do I know what it is? I’ve never seen it before...”
Police determined that it was an unarmed1 Gerbera drone, and noted that Mr. Manoilă had already disassembled it and all the components were found at his house. Police remind people not to approach suspicious objects and to call the authorities.
Other Security and Defense News
Here’s a roundup of the other top recent security related stories:
The EU donated €5 million euros of non-lethal vehicles to the Moldovan army. They included busses, trucks, minivans and SUVs. The EU says that they are meant to help in the modernization of the Moldovan army.
The Moldovan army “acquired” Scorpion self-propelled mortars. There was no official announcement of this fact, or information about where they came from or what they (might have) cost. Instead, the Moldovan army released a video with the hashtag #modernizare (modernization) showing them in action. An analysis of the video by journalists at RFE/RL counted around 20 Scorpion systems. Scropion (also called Alakran) is made in Spain and is a fully digital mortar system deployed in the back of any 2 ton 4x4 pickup truck (Toyotas in Moldova’s case). It has swappable 81 mm and 120 mm barrels with a range of 6.5 km and 8 km respectively. Targeting is entirely handled by a computer and the system is designed for shoot-and-scoot operations. It can stop driving, fire 8 rounds, and get back on the road in 2 minutes. The Ministry of Defense refused to comment for RFE/RL citing state secrets.
The Moldovan army “acquired” ATMOS self-propelled artillery systems. Just as with the Scorpions, the Army posted a video on youtube showing exercises with new artillery systems. Analysis have identified them as ATMOS 2000 Israeli made 155 mm truck mounted artillery systems. The video shows at least 4 systems, but RFE/RL reported that the firm that makes the ATMOS 2000 had announced a $102 million dollar contract in 2023 from an unnamed “international client.” Depending on the negotiated price, this contract could represent 10-15 ATMOS 2000 systems. This has been identified as most likely a “discrete purchase” by the Moldovan army. The ATMOS system has a 30 km range with traditional artillery shells or 41 km with rocket assisted shells. It can fire 4-9 rounds / minute.
The Moldovan Amy participated in Romania’s National Unity Day military parade in Bucharest. Elements of the Honor Guard Company & 22nd Peacekeeping Battalion attended.
Addressing the drone incursions, President Sandu stated that “there are no magic solutions.” She explained that they are working with partners to buy more radars, but that “simply detecting it isn’t enough; we need to be able to defend ourselves.” The President also condemned “politicians who misinform and manipulate” and stated that only by acknowledging the dangers head on can the country begin to find solutions.
President Sandu presented the Democratic Resilience Plan for 2026–2027. The plan, which is largely a set of short bullet points, can be found online here. According to the Presidential Administration:
“The plan was developed based on the experience of the last three elections, a period in which Moldova was the target of unprecedented foreign interference: illegal financing of political activities, disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and attempts to destabilize public order.
To address these risks, the document provides for measures to strengthen information security, more efficient financial monitoring, strengthen cyber defense capabilities, and improve cooperation between responsible institutions. Some of the actions represent classified information, so as not to compromise the state’s protection mechanisms.”
Political Updates
Here’s a roundup of the top politics stories of the week:
Prime Minister Munteanu presented the 2026 budget. In his announcement he highlighted an increase in investments saying “for the first time in history, capital investments increase by 55%. We have an allocation of up to three billion lei.” He also stated that the minimum wage will be increased from 5,500 lei to 6,300 lei. Minister of Finance Andrian Gavriliță gave a press conference walking through elements of the budget. There he noted that the projected budget deficit in 2026 will amount to 5.5% of GDP saying “I must admit, the deficit is not small, but it is important to emphasize that about half of this deficit will go into investments.”
PAS MPs registered a bill for economic stimulus for small and medium (SME) sized companies. In the bill, they propose maintaining the “zero rate” of tax on reinvested profits for some categories of SMEs through 2026. They also propose increasing the VAT threshold from 1.2 million lei to 1.5 million lei2. Recall, just this week Moldova Matters published a translated piece from former Minister of Economy Dumitru Alaiba where he advocated for making this tax policy permanent, and for expanding it to businesses of all sizes.
The Ministry of Education announced school consolidations3. For those unfamiliar with the local school system see this footnote4 for terminology. Gymnasiums with 35 students of fewer will shed grades 5-9 which will be bussed to a larger school. Primary schools with fewer than 30 students will be merged with kindergartens, becoming Primary School-Kindergartens. If an Primary School-Kindergartens has fewer than 10 students it will become only a kindergarten (with primary student bussing to a larger school). Regardless of size, all kindergartens will be retained. The Ministry also assured that no reorganizations will take place unless the bussing school is fewer than 20 km away and teaches in the same language. These changes will affect 73 schools with 1328 students total (out of 330,000 students in Moldova). The Ministry has noted that tiny village schools5 vastly underperform on test scores and other educational outcomes, and it’s working to move students to better performing larger schools. This process will be conducted yearly in December to make preparations for the next school year.
Energy compensation rates have been announced for winter 2025-2026. The maximum compensation will be 1000 lei / month with the minimum set at 500 lei. The compensation will vary based on the type of hear and eligibility. The government has allocated 2.36 billion lei to pay compensation this cold season.
Crime and Corruption
Here’s a roundup of the top justice sector stories of the week:
Plaha appears in court. On December 2nd Plahotniuc made his first appearance at his ongoing trial to make a statement and open the defense case. In his lengthy statement he claims his innocence, promised to prove it and complained about the case complexity. He stated that he had been preparing his defense from prison and complained about only being allowed one phone call a week and no access to a computer saying “I’ve never done so much mental calculation in my life.” His lawyers had previously submitted a list of 58 defense witnesses to call, Plahotniuc overruled this and submitted 168 names. He previewed his defense as follows: 1) If he captured the state then it stands to reason that all MPs, judges, prime ministers, etc from this period worked for him and will say so under questioning. So he wants to call them as witnesses. 2) He took umbrage at the allegation that he organized the theft of the billion but only profited around 18 million lei from it - the implication being that he would have profited much more if he was the real organizer6. The panel of judges listed to his statement, and approved 27 of his requested 168 witnesses.
Anti-Corruption police (CNA) and prosecutors announced a criminal investigation into public procurement at Chisinau City Hall. Raids targeted the head of the General Directorate for Housing and Communal Development, Ion Burdiumov, 2 department heads and 3 businessmen. Prosecutors seized more than 3 million lei in cash and released wire tap transcripts outlining the scheme whereby corrupt officials received kickbacks for awarding city contracts. Ion Burdiumov is a member of the National Council of Mayor Ceban’s MAN party, and his wife is a city councilor for the party. Responding to the news, Mayor Ceban claimed that these raids only happened “After I announced that we would be discussing the alarming growth of the national debt.” Apparently implying that the searches, wiretaps and 3 million lei in cash were a distraction from a planned vertical video about the 2026 budget.
Recall, they are mostly decoy and reconnaissance drones - but they can carry a small explosive payload as well.
Value Added Tax (VAT) is 20% for most products. Companies who make less than the VAT threshold over 12 months don’t have to pay this tax. For most companies this is advantageous, but not for all. Being part of the VAT system means you also get tax credits for your purchases. In any case, this policy is less about expanding the tax exemption than it is about keeping pace with inflation.
Minister Dan Perciun has apparently used the start of a new parliamentary mandate to grab the 3rd rail with both hands
In Moldova, grades 1-4 are called Primary School and grades 5-9 are called Gymnasium. A school building called a Gymnasium will often house grades 1-9. Also, a school could be called an Primary School-Kindergarten - and just like it sounds it combines those 2 functions.
Moldova currently has 91 schools in with fewer than 50 students and 247 schools with fewer than 90 students.
Obviously, it’s very hard to know who owns what shell company - the $18 million is what is alleged to be tracked directly to him (so far).
I know it is utterly different, but the man towing the drone reminds me irresistibly of the Ukrainian tractor drivers who helped themselves to Russian tanks...
Anyway, another great and wide ranging article, essential reading, thank you!