Weekly Roundup Part 1: International Affairs and Hybrid War Updates
June 17, 2025
Hello and welcome back to Moldova Matters! This past week has been pretty heavy on the news so we’ve decided to break the Weekly Roundup into 2 parts. Today we’re covering the top international affairs, security, Transnistria and Shor / Hybrid war news of the week. Tomorrow we’ll come back with part 2 that will focus on domestic politics, including last weekend’s Pride march and other updates. If you haven’t become a paid subscriber to Moldova Matters already - please consider supporting this work financially. For just $8 / month you can really help support all the work that goes into this newsletter.
Ukraine-Southeastern Europe Summit in Odesa
On June 11th, President Sandu attended Ukraine’s regional summit in the city of Odesa. This was the 4th Ukraine – Southeast Europe Summit and the first held on Ukrainian territory. It brought together Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Moldovan President Maia Sandu, Romanian President Nicușor Dan, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Montenegrin President Jakov Milatovic, Albanian Parliament Speaker Eliza Spiropali and Bulgarian Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov. The leaders discussed regional security, energy cooperation, trade, Ukraine’s recovery and the ongoing threat of hybrid war.
At the summit President Sandu attended a trilateral meeting with President Zelensky and President Dan.
President Zelensky highlighted the regional threat that reaches beyond Ukraine saying:
"Russia wants to destroy Odesa just as it destroyed many cities and villages in the occupied territories. Moscow's military plans are aimed at this region - first Odesa, and then the borders with Moldova and Romania,"
He went on to emphasize that Moldova’s security is key to regional security saying:
"We have witnessed attempts to manipulate public opinion in Romania with the involvement of Moscow, and for three decades Russia has tried to keep Moldova in poverty and instability in order to finally control it completely, and if Europe loses in Moldova this year, it will encourage Russia to intervene even more in your countries by taking your resources, sovereignty and even your history,"
President Sandu wrote of the meeting that:
“When Chisinau, Kyiv and Bucharest act together, we can build not only infrastructure or joint projects, we can ensure the security of our people, hope for a peaceful future and a clear path to a united, free and democratic Europe.”
She also spoke of the need to further support Ukraine saying that “Ukraine is our shield. And yours.”
Other International Affairs Stories
Here’s a roundup of the other top stories in Moldovan international affairs from this week:
Moldova hosted Romanian President Nicușor Dan on an official visit to Chisinau on June 10th. He was received by President Sandu and the two leaders participated in a joint press conference as well as public events. President Dan reaffirmed his support for Moldova’s EU accession and discussed cooperation on regional security issues with President Sandu.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis paid an official visit to Chisinau on June 12th following the Odesa summit. He met with Prime Minister Recean and President Sandu while in Chisinau.
President Sandu announced the first EU-Moldova summit will be held in Chisinau on July 4th. At this event President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council António Costa and Vice-President of the European Commission and top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas will come to Chisinau. The summit will be held in the context of Moldova’s EU candidacy and is planned to be held annually until the country joins the EU.
Igor Dodon, Bashkan Gutsul and Marco Rubio all extend congratulations to Russia on the occasion of “Russia Day.” All three leaders congratulated Russians on their national holiday and spoke of the need to forge closer ties with the country. The inclusion of the US Secretary of State in this list of people making such overtures was particularly noted by the Moldovan press.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs advises all Moldovan citizens to leave Israel. The Ministry and Moldovan Embassy have provided advice on land boarder evacuation routes in the context of the expanding war with Iran. Moldova’s Ambassador denied reports that the Moldovan Embassy had been hit in a ballistic missile strike, but noted that an apartment complex adjacent to his own was hit. The Moldovan Embassy and Consulate has been closed as a precaution. No Moldovan citizens have been reported as injured or killed in the attacks thus far. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has joined international calls for both sides to engage in an “immediate de-escalation of tensions.”
How Could Russia Deploy 10,000 Soldiers to Moldova?
Last week Prime Minister Recean gave an interview to the Financial Times emphasizing the huge efforts Russia was making to undermine Moldova’s democracy. He stated in that interview that if a pro-Kremlin government came to power in Moldova, that Russia planned to deploy 10,000 soldiers to reinforce Transnistria.
These comments provoked criticism, namely that Russia does not share a border with Moldova and therefore it would be impossible to send any Russian soldiers to the region. President Sandu was asked about these statements this week and she replied:
"This is a real danger if Russia controls the government in Chisinau. We have information, and the figures are threatening. The risks for the country are high, I am not exaggerating. I do not want to scare anyone, but we are all wise people, and we should analyze the situation and take care not to lose what we have,"
Also this week she stressed that Russia planned to use Transnistria as leverage during the election saying:
"All these years, Russia has been using the residents of Transnistria and at any moment it can provoke an even greater crisis if it suits its plans in Moldova. We can expect this crisis to deepen in the coming months, before the elections,"
The President explained that the Kremlin is likely to use a combination of bribery and blackmail to drive voter turnout among Transnistrian residents in the election.
Answering more directly the question of the 10,000 soldiers, the president’s advisor on security Stanislav Secrieru stated the following:
"In 1962, the Soviet military contingent stationed in Cuba was forbidden to wear military uniforms. And the increased Soviet presence there was explained by the fact that the USSR was providing assistance in the form of agricultural expertise. In 1970, Soviet troops were transported to Egypt on civilian tourist ships. The soldiers and officers were dressed in civilian clothes. In 1982, Soviet troops were transferred to Syria on civilian ships, and the contingent was dressed in civilian clothes. During the civil war in Angola in 1975, Soviet troops operated in the country in civilian clothes,"
He explained that since February 2022 there have been multiple attempts to infiltrate soldiers and officers into Moldova already.
Author’s Note: We’ve written in the past about attempts to infiltrate Wagner mercenaries into Moldova via the airport. Currently passengers holding Russian passports, or those flagged by local or partner intelligence agencies, are subject to additional screening and potential refusal of entry. The president’s advisor is clearly implying that efforts like these would no longer be opposed under a pro-Kremlin government and that planeloads of plainclothes soldiers could enter Moldova and make their way to Transnistria.
Transnistria and Security News
Here’s a roundup of the top security related stories of the week:
On June 11th the Transnistrian “authorities” declared an economic state of emergency. The “Supreme Soviet” announced that this was justified by the “severe general economic crisis… caused by the reduction in natural gas supplies to Transnistria.” Under the state of emergency all exports of energy resources are banned including coal, peat, wood building materials, firewood, wood chips, sawdust, etc. The region also recently reintroduced fines and disconnections for customers who do not pay their energy bills. Additionally, since June 5th the whole region has seen disruptions in the hot water supply due to annual maintenance. The providing company claims that hot water will be restored within 2 weeks and that the maintenance is normal, however in past years only sections of the system would be taken down for repairs at any one time. Shutting down the entire region’s hot water system is unusual.
Transnistria is rapidly getting poorer than the rest of Moldova. Economic Expert Veaceslav Ioniță, of think tank IDIS Viitorul, has reported that the average salary and pension in the region is now half that of the rest of Moldova in real terms. He noted that until 2010 both salaries and pensions were about equal on both sides of the Nistru river. In the years after that Transnistrians enjoyed pensions roughly 2x higher than the rest of Moldova by 2016 and salaries rose to about 50% higher. Now, this trend has dramatically reversed. Inflation in the region is also higher than the rest of Moldova - a fact that is no longer offset by cheaper energy prices.
Telegram is much less secure than it claims and has close connections to the Kremlin. A new report by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) has identified critical weaknesses in Telegram’s security protocols that leaves users vulnerable to 2 different kinds of attacks. Firstly, all messages open with an unencrypted header called auth_key_id which can uniquely identify users even if their messages are encrypted. This means that people controlling either the servers behind Telegram, or local internet routers, could snoop on traffic and identify who is sending messages and where they are located. Worse, messages are not encrypted by default, adding further risk if the servers run by Telegram itself were compromised. OCCRP noted that in court filings in an unrelated case in Miami a man named Vladimir Vedeneev revealed that his company, Global Network Management (GNM), is responsible for more than 10,000 IP addresses related to Telegram as well as the network equipment routing these messages. They found that Telegram’s founder Pavel Durov empowered Vladimir Vedeneev to sign documents as the company’s CFO as far back as 9 years ago. Vedeneev is also the founder of a St. Petersburg headquartered company called GlobalNet which operates 18,000 km of backbone network infrastructure across Russia and has contracts to manage key Russian government systems associated with the Presidential administration, FSB, FSO, GRU, Interior Ministry and others1. OCCRP also noted that Pavel Durov has claimed that he hasn’t returned to Russia since being “expelled” in 2014 - a claim that is false as leaks showed more than 50 visits to Russia between 2015 - 2021. Telegram is a hugely popular messaging app in the region and is believed to be highly secure due to the company’s pronouncements. Claims that now appear to be misleading at best, but are more likely intentionally false.
Shor / Hybrid War News
Here are the week’s top stories in the Kremlin’s hybrid war efforts against Moldova:
Anti Corruption Police (CNA) confiscated 1 million lei in various currencies during searches in Chisinau. Searches targeted vote buying and illicit party finance schemes associated with a “foundation” in Russia that is under sanctions. While it was not named this most likely refers to Ilan Shor’s Eurasia Foundation. No suspects were detained but CNA reports that multiple people are under investigation.
Political science students in Moscow are being recruited as “managers of pro-Russian party campaigners" in Moldova’s elections. Russian investigative outlet The Insider reports, with reference to student publication Groza, that students at Moscow's Higher School of Economics are being offered 120,000 rubbles / month (25,000 lei / $1500) for jobs based in Moscow. They would be working for Ilan Shor’s NGO “Eurasia” for jobs that appear to be remote political campaign teams for the Kremlin’s various political entities in Moldova.
Recent Romanian presidential candidate George Simion has posted a video address calling on Moldovan citizens to vote against PAS. He called for “revenge” against Maia Sandu, who continues to play a central role in his conspiracy theories about a rigged election. Simion claims that only 100,000 additional votes are needed to bring other political forces to power. PAS MP Radu Marian responded by posting:
“I understand that George Simion, one of the Kremlin’s ‘mouthpieces’, disguised as a unionist, is looking for votes in Moldova against PAS and Maia Sandu in the parliamentary elections of September 28! He probably has instructions from his masters to help block Moldova’s accession to the EU,”
Vasile Costiuc rails against “globalists and Satanists” (aka PAS) in Washington DC. The leader of the Democracy at Home party was on a “working visit” to Washington where he claimed to have met with “Robert Brown Aderholt, Andy Ogles, and Anna Paulina Luna all Republican Senators." Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), Andy Ogles (R-TN) and Robert Aderholt (R-AL) are all far right MAGA members of the House of Representatives, and not in fact Senators. Costiuc states that he was there to deliver a message about the "lack of democracy in Chisinau" and "PAS censorship" and claims that he was assured that these members of congress will come to Moldova closer to the parliamentary elections. We’ll no doubt check in on this story later2. Past reporting has tied Vasile Costiuc to George Simion and has shown that he has multiple ties to the Putin regime.
37 graves in Chisinau’s Jewish Cemetery were vandalized with swastikas and Nazi symbols. Police are looking for the perpetrators and have called on the public to call in tips. Speaker of Parliament Grosu condemned the "barbaric provocation by individuals who are trying to create tensions in society" and speculated that these actions may be "part of large-scale destabilization efforts planned by the Kremlin in the Republic of Moldova."
Antisemitic vandalism in Moldova’s Jewish Cemeteries has happened before in cases that were not linked to organized campaigns designed to drive interethnic divisions. At this time we do not know who desecrated the cemetery or why, but as Valeriu Pașa wrote in a piece Moldova Matters ran this past weekend activities such as this are known to be part of the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare playbook.
We’ll be back with Part 2 of the Weekly Roundup tomorrow looking at last weekend’s Pride March, the sometimes violent opposition to it, and other political updates.
It is worth noting that all large companies, especially those that manage critical infrastructure, are de facto state controlled in Russia - as they are in all authoritarian and totalitarian states.
Vasile Costiuc is just the latest in a series of little known and largely unimportant Moldovan political figures getting improbable meetings with American leaders. He was almost certainly represented in Washington by a PR / lobbying firm but as of the time of writing no FARA disclosures related to his visit have been filed. Moldova Matters has reported in the past on cases where such disclosures were filed, leaving more questions than answers, as well as cases where they were not - in clear violation of American federal law.