Editorial Note: This article is written by Misha Zeldin-Gipsman, Director of the Moldovan School of Economics, as part of Moldova Matter’s new series “The Next Economy: Moldova 2030.” We’ve asked experts, business leaders and economists from a variety of backgrounds to share their vision for how Moldova can develop a stronger economic future. Most articles will focus on one big idea towards this end.
Moldova’s task is not to senselessly copy foreign reform packages but to construct an economic architecture grounded in its own comparative advantages and forecasting opportunities. World economic complexity has evolved from pencil manufacturing to globalization - with smartphone ubiquity and the integration of artificial intelligence in everything. The fastest-growing sectors no longer rely just on services, but require serious R&D investment. Moldova faces this context with three classical growth requirements: human capital, infrastructure, and investment.
Foresight: What Should Moldova Do - and What It Can Offer?
Moldova requires permanent inclusive economic foresight through mapping futures and identifying current and potential comparative advantages. Several are evident: low labor costs within the European space and available industrial zones from Soviet infrastructure. Moldova needs a clear picture for every citizen showing how agriculture, given high soil fertility potential, will modernize to EU productivity levels. This approach will help mobilize farmers with their communities, banks, and state to address widespread rural bankruptcy in Moldova. These become development assets when connected to future industries through planning across 5-, 15-, and 30-year horizons. This process should not be confined to government directives or business elites but must include diverse formats and involve all stakeholders. Ultimately, foresight will aid in responding to the question of what Moldova can supply for itself, the EU, and the world.
No one can schedule a full, robust long-term economic plan, but preparation for trends and risks is possible. All the countries that achieved rapid economic shifts Ireland, Scandinavia, Israel, and South Korea - began with foresight and positivistic synchronization, enabling future coordination instead of conflicts and frustration. This provided capabilities to recognize and exploit emerging opportunities while offering platforms for forming alliances with strategic partners to jointly invest in innovations.
New Industrialization
One of the key trends of the next decade is systematic reindustrialization (or new industrialization) with spatial development planning. Moldova needs a consortium structure that brings together actors from various sectors, a clear understanding of existing capabilities and human skills within the territory, and an analysis of expectations to attract major players as investors. Having well-prepared strategic plans makes it easier to attract industrial investors and partners, especially when infrastructure, workforce development, and regulatory frameworks are aligned with a robust and clear plan.
Moldova has an opportunity to participate in Ukrainian reconstruction by implementing smart infrastructure designs that meet domestic utility needs and support cross-border cooperation and solidarity efficiency.
The establishment of a kind of Development Foundation, Strategic Investment Fund, or Republican Bank merits consideration. It should be operated by independent professionals, as cumatrism1 (patronage-based) management would ruin it. A related initiative, also could be a private-public Export Agency that facilitates global sales and market access to the EU and new emerging economies, such as Africa and Asia.
Furthermore, Moldova can learn from successful FinTech modernizations in Latin American, Asian, Gulf countries, Estonia, Ireland, Luxembourg, Israel. It could establish itself as a new, transparent, and liberal European FinTech hub by adopting simple regulations and international expert oversight. This approach depends on reliable experts and organizations to guide the process, with the state providing support rather than direct control.
And one of the essential steps for Moldova, connected with FinTech, is to transform remittances into investments and strengthen domestic resource mobilization.
To have Democracy is not enough.
Market liberalization remains essential. Total factor productivity depends on optimal conditions. Moldova shows numerous Post-Soviet institutional traits and does not have impressive economic freedom, even when compared to regional peers.
EU integration automatically positions the government toward regulatory functions rather than enabling the spirit of enterprise and venture building. After 35 years of limited administrative success across different governments, even the current pro-European administration operates within a system that has discredited itself.
Therefore, Moldova must foster an environment of freedom and adopt an ecosystem approach for creative destruction, where development is driven by entrepreneurs from rural areas and local producers to high-tech startups and international players, rather than by centralized state institutional bounded cognition. Entrepreneurs are engines of growth when conditions do not constrain them.
Foreign aid does not make countries wealthier, but can provide an ecosystem for growth. The flypaper effect and rent-seeking exist everywhere; the question is whether conditions can be structured so that productive behavior becomes preferred for economic agents.
Moldova has the biggest proportion of shadow economy in the EU - but this doesn’t just mean that people are breaking the law. It means that the economic agents are trying to perform in the most effective way and that the market needs liberalization.
For example, the typical rural small private farmer works in grey conditions simply because he does not see other options for surviving. The government should ask the question not of how to suppress and get taxes to match new international bank requirements, but how to liberate it from barriers that citizens and businesses avoid, to not hinder their potency.
Mutual Benefits
The Pridnestrovie-Transnistrian question should transform into an economic opportunity through mutual value creation: international investment, privatization, and new industrial projects creating material incentives for cooperation on both banks of the Dniester. This deal automatically addresses energy instability and production cost in the region. Without resolution, this frozen situation will continue freezing Moldova’s broader economic potential.
Logistic hub
Moldova should dedicate all efforts to becoming a logistics hub within the Trans-European Transport Network. Moldova should advocate extending or developing new corridors connecting Scandinavia to Greece and Solidarity Lanes from Portugal - Central Europe to Donbas through Chișinău, Bălți, Giurgiulesti and Tiraspol. This is a unique moment when Moldova can change its logistical position on the world map.
This is possible only with the previous points implemented. Infrastructure must generate productivity rather than accumulate debt. Roads financed through loans without producing revenue deteriorate to a critical condition, requiring repeated reconstruction through additional borrowing. Fiscal illusion already affects Moldova due to populism.
The population should not decrease
It is essential to recognize that addressing demographic challenges: population decline, low birth rates, and migration, are critical for achieving sustained economic growth. Without intervention in systematic reasons of these issues, the prospect of ongoing growth becomes increasingly unattainable.
BANI Education
(BANI – another fashionable acronym means brittle, anxious, non-linear, incomprehensible | *Bani in Romanian/Moldovan means money)
Education reform requires stronger development of STEM disciplines and creative, adaptive skills needed in contemporary volatile conditions. Expert consensus confirms that early “Prussian” industrial mass educational systems no longer match modern requirements for personal and state success. The existence of a large, skilled diaspora, Russian anti-war migrants, solidarity from EU countries, and numerous professionals loyal to democratic Moldova all represent a significant resource.
One basic step could be to introduce a school course on entrepreneurship, finance, and economic literacy developed by international experts.
The budget should refocus from education for diplomas and prestige toward funding actual educational projects, generating capabilities for current and adaptive competencies, and affordable workforce requalification to new demands. Education development should be synchronized with market realities foresight-forecasting and an investment plan.
Solarpunk Stork
Moldova may never replicate Ireland’s case, Israel’s path to the “Start-Up Nation” or the experience of the “Asian Dragons,” but why Moldova can’t become the “Solarpunk Stork?”
*Stork in Romanian is “Barza” – one of the traditional symbols of hope and prosperity in Moldova.
Cumatrism is Moldovan slang for the networks of nepotism and patronage that permeate the Moldovan state and state owned companies. “Keeping it within the family” moves beyond simple hiring decisions to vast networks of supplier arrangements and intermediary companies created to siphon off funds to loyal members of the network.
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This piece really made me think, Misha. Your point about Moldova building its *own* economic architecture, not just copying, is so smart. While agriculture is a clear powerhouse, I wonder if too much focus on low labor costs risks obscuring high-skill tech export. We could definately build some great digital storks with AI integration too!