This evening Gazprom informed its subsidiary MoldovaGaz that deliveries would be reduced to 0 cubic meters per day on January 1st at 8 am Moscow time1. The company cited "failure to fulfill payment obligations" by Moldova as the reason. All of the 5.7 million cubic meters of gas currently provided on a daily basis are used by Transnistria - meaning that the Kremlin is cutting off their proxy.
With this announcement the Kremlin has confirmed that the artificially imposed energy crisis will come with a full gas cutoff. This will result in a shutdown of the MGRES power plant and a conversion to a limited production regime using coal reserves. As we’ve written about in the past this will have a ripple effect on Moldova causing a power shortage and the possibility of rolling blackouts. Additionally, strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure could directly or indirectly impact Moldova’s electricity supply causing unexpected blackouts and other serious challenges.
In addition to these challenges, a full gas cutoff means that heating in the Transnistrian region will effectively cease after January 1st. Some household heating will be cut off on that day, other buildings will continue getting gas and heat based on reserve volumes in the gas pressure pipes. But in no case will this last very long.
Prime Minister Recean highlighted this situation in his comments reacting to GazProm’s notification saying:
"This decision confirms, once again, the Kremlin's intention to leave the residents of the Transnistrian region without light and heat in the middle of winter. Russia is using energy as a political weapon, turning the people of the Transnistrian region, which it controls through the illegally stationed army, into hostages."
"The government condemns these oppressive tactics and reiterates that it will not recognize any alleged debt, which has been invalidated by the international audit,"
The Prime Minister stated that "We will continue to ensure the supply of natural gas from other sources and protect vulnerable consumers." In the past he and the government have stressed that this is only possible if Transnistrian customers pay for this energy - meaning that the era of free gas is officially over.
This final removal of uncertainty regarding Russia’s intentions sets in motion a multi-dimensional crisis. There is going to be a technical crisis in supplying Moldova2 with electricity and making sure that Transnistria has enough heat to survive the winter. There is a messaging and propaganda crisis where the Kremlin will push disinformation seeking to blame the current Moldovan government for this crisis. There is a security and military angle as Russian soldiers in the breakaway region could interfere with the delivery of humanitarian aid or otherwise put their thumbs on the scale of crisis management.
Finally, there is a political crisis. One of Russia’s clear intentions is to create instability and discontentment in order to influence this summer’s parliamentary elections. We should expect Russian proxy politicians across Moldova to begin spreading their own narratives and disinformation during this crisis - a situation made more complicated because there are good faith reasons to object to the government’s management of this crisis so far.
While we don’t know how this multi-crisis will progress, there are a number of internal and external factors that imply that the Kremlin will not be in a rush to resolve it. The Vulcanesti - Chisinau high voltage line is expected to be completed in late 2025. If this line is completed then future actions that hurt Transnistrians will not have the same ripple effect over the river. Outside Moldova there is every indication that Putin is putting maximum pressure on Ukraine and Europe ahead of a new Trump administration. This winter is a moment of leverage for the Kremlin, which may mean that, unlike 2022-2023, Moldova will have to manage this situation through spring.
It’s worth noting that Transnistrian “authorities” had already announced last week that restrictions will come into place 7 am local time (8 am Moscow time). It’s almost as if…
Note: As we’ve done before with articles about Transnistria we will sometimes say “Moldova” and “Transnistria” as a way to indicate the parts of Moldovan territory controlled by Chisinau and Tiraspol respectively. This is easier for most readers than “left bank” vs “right bank” and is simply a convienent shorthand. All territory in question is Moldova.
Putin's next location of his imperialistic colonial expansion push. I wonder if his brave armed personnel in occupied Moldova mind a cold winter too? God Save Moldova.