Energy Crisis Update: The Beginning of the End?
January 29, 2025
The last 2 days have seen the first concrete agreements between Chisinau and Tiraspol aimed at alleviating, and potentially solving, the ongoing energy crisis. On Monday the Transnistrian1 “authorities” sent the Moldovan government an emergency request for 3 million cubic meters of natural gas - which they promised to pay for. The region’s official news agency explained the request stating:
"This is a necessity due to the fact that the gas reserves saved by suspending the activities of energy-intensive industrial enterprises at the end of December are running out. They [the 3 million cubes] will be enough until the first days of February at the latest,"
This came after Transnistrian “leader” Vadim Krasnoselsky stated on January 24th that the pressure in their gas pipelines was decreasing and that gas would run out “Literally in a couple of days.” He noted that coal reserves for MGRES will run out in the middle of February. The Transnistrian “authorities” followed this up with orders to suspend gas usage at the remaining small power plants and to switch hospitals and other public buildings over to diesel generators and wood / coal heating.
On the same day as the request for aid the Moldovan government agreed. Prime Minister Recean quickly put out a statement saying:
"I would like to address our fellow citizens on the Left Bank. The Right Bank will provide you with assistance today - 3 million cubic meters of gas to maintain pressure in the system,"
The Prime Minister went further saying that the European Union had offered a grant of 30 million euros for the purchase of gas for power production. If the Transnistrian’s agree to this support, Energocom will use this money to purchase gas on the European market and MoldovaGaz will deliver it to Transnistria. In exchange, Transnistria will provide Moldova with free electricity. Electricity prices in Moldova will then be able to be reduced to pre-crisis levels. The Prime Minister explained that this aid will only cover the dates of February 1st through 10th but that:
"In parallel, the Moldovan government and the EU are working on a two-year aid package to strengthen the energy resilience of the entire country. In essence, the EU is coming to Moldova's aid again. And these are not just words. The EU is providing real aid: heat, light, security for all of us. Chisinau has done everything possible to resume gas supplies, and today's decision clearly demonstrates that problems that were not created by us can be solved through joint efforts,"
The loan of 3 million cubes of gas was officially agreed and signed today January 29th. Under the terms of the contract Transnistria agrees to either return the gas or to pay for it at market prices by March 1st. Transnistrian “foreign minister” Vitaly Ignatiev stated:
“Transnistria welcomes the EU’s intention to provide an emergency financial grant to provide short-term support to the republic [Transnistria] in the circumstances of the humanitarian and energy crisis.”
Chisinau and Tiraspol agreed to hold a technical meeting on January 30th to discuss the EU’s offer of 30 million euros in assistance in detail. Transnistrian “leader” Vadim Krasnoselsky commented on the situation saying:
"I will be honest, when we find ourselves in such conditions, it is simply absurd to refuse. Therefore, of course, we welcome assistance from the EU."
How Did We Get Here?
By all appearances Transnistria finally ran out of time for games. Russian news outlet Kommersant ran another story this week floating yet another complex scheme whereby Hungarian companies would purchase gas for Transnistria but, as with past schemes nothing concrete was announced. In the absence of GazProm booking any gas transit from Turkstream or offering another solution Transnistria seems to have realized that in a few days the region would have to almost fully shut down.
Meanwhile, other solutions continued to get floated from the Moldovan side over the last week. During a joint press conference with Maia Sandu in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reiterated his offer to provide the region with coal to power the MGRES plant. At the same time he addressed for the first time Transnistria’s claim that this was unworkable because they were offering the wrong type of coal saying that if Transnistria needed help converting the power plant to a different type of coal Ukraine could send specialists to “set it all up very quickly.”
I think this coal issue deserves its own little digression but I will leave that in the footnotes.2
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Serghei Lavrov put out statements blaming the Moldovan government for “cynically” trying to place the blame on Russia and suggesting that if Moldova recognizes the alleged debts to GazProm and Ukraine starts transiting gas again this can all be solved - effectively preconditioning a solution on actions that are non-starters for Moldova and Ukraine.
On Friday Prime Minister Recean released a video message recorded in Russian where he directly addressed the residents of the Transnistria region. In it he discusses Moldova’s offers of humanitarian help and stated that GazProm can send them gas anytime without Moldovan interference. He said:
"But the Kremlin does not want to resume gas supplies, it wants to create a conflict in Moldova, to set us against each other, so that people from the Right Bank get angry at people from the Left Bank and vice versa. So that we blame each other for everything. And so that we do not see the obvious - the suffering of people lies on the conscience of the Kremlin. The Kremlin did not and does not care about the residents of all of Moldova and the Transnistrian region. The Kremlin did not think for a second about their fate, turning off their gas and heating right in the middle of winter and putting the region on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. Russia plans to use human tragedies as an instrument of enmity. The Kremlin's policy is extremely cynical - creating chaos in our entire country,"
So while the messaging war continued much as it has in the last few months, the main thing that changed is Transnistria facing an imminent loss of their final gas reserves. Currently gas is only used for cooking in apartment buildings and for heating hospitals and other critical state buildings. If all residents using gas for cooking have to switch to electric ranges this would further strain the already buckling electric system. Without Moldova’s help with generators and diesel it is also highly unlikely that the region would be able to maintain power for hospitals and critical infrastructure. Simply put, they ran out of time.
And Russia did not send any gas.
What Comes Next?
With all the twists and turns in this saga making any kind of predictions is a dangerous game. Tomorrow’s technical meeting on the EU’s 30 million euro grant proposal will give us an indication on whether or not Tiraspol is prepared to enter into longer term agreements with the Chisinau government… and the EU. If they do so it is likely an admission that Russian gas is not coming and a final admission that the era of free gas is over.
But is that destined to happen? It’s hard to say. The Kremlin could provide some new proposal and seriously attempt to provide free gas again. It’s unclear why they haven’t so far, though indications are continuing to imply that Russia may be under more financial strain than previously thought.3
Speaking about the EU’s proposed support in this crisis President Sandu posted on X:
“Hard times reveal true friends. Thank you, Ursula @vonderleyen and the EU, for standing with Moldova against Russia’s energy blackmail. Grateful for the emergency response to support the Transnistrian region and for working with us on a long-term energy solution for all Moldova.”
Whatever comes next this seems to be the takeaway at this moment. The EU has the potential to bring the financial and diplomatic support Moldova needs to put this crisis onto a course that resolves not only current energy needs but broader questions about Transnistria. With the continuing halt to all American foreign aid programs Moldova will be increasingly reliant on European support for these big questions.
This crisis has not yet ended and people in Transnistria still do not have heat. But there is a glimmer of hope that it is nearing the end. We’ll come back with updates following tomorrow’s meetings.
Disclaimer: As we’ve done before with articles about Transnistria we will sometimes say “Moldova” and “Transnistria” as a way to indicate the parts of Moldovan territory controlled by Chisinau and Tiraspol respectively. This is easier for most readers than “left bank” vs “right bank” and is simply a convienent shorthand. All territory in question is Moldova.
Let’s take a quick deep dive on this coal issue. Ukraine and Moldova have repeatedly offered to provide MGRES with additional coal to continue electricity production after the current coal reserves end around February 15th. Transnistrian officials stated that this isn’t possible because MGRES is designed to burn anthracite which is a specific type of coal mined in Ukraine’s Donbas region (which is under Russian occupation). Ukraine continued insisting that they could provide coal, maybe cheaply, maybe for free in exchange for electricity. The implication seemed to be that Ukraine had a stockpile of anthracite even though they no longer control the mines in the Donbas - but this was never explicitly stated. Now, Ukraine has acknowledged Transnistria uses anthracite and that the gas coal offered by Ukraine is not the same and cannot be burned without modifying the plant. On January 25th President Zelenskyy reiterated the offer for coal and said “now they can say that this coal is not suitable technically” brushing this aside and offering to send engineers to make quick modifications.
Firstly, Transnistria has been saying that the type of coal is not suitable for quite a while - this is not a new claim. Secondly, Transnistria estimated that converting the plant from anthracite to gas coal will result in substantial downtime and cost around $60 million dollars. Asking ChatGPT about this the AI confirms that this is a pretty extensive process (multiple years of work) and estimated the cost as between $35 million and $180 million - with a recommendation not even to bother if the plant is old (the bot suggests natural gas instead).
So were Ukraine, Moldova and Transnistria just talking by each other this whole time about coal? Or was the offer of coal always a messaging issue and not a serious offer? Like many weird aspects of this whole crisis we just don’t know what is going on here.
Gazprom has requested that the Russian Duma allow them to raise prices on domestic consumers urgently citing growing losses. We’ll come back to the potential frailty of the Russian gas giant and what role it may (or may not) have played in this whole crisis - hopefully in a crisis post-mortem soon.
Excellent article, unsurprisingly! Will history record that this was the start of the reunion of Moldova, hopefully peacefully?
It does seem like there is finally at least the possibility of a happy ending.
Good explanation of the coal situation too, though personally I would be reluctant to trust an explanation from the same AI systems that advise using glue to old ingredients in place on pizza, and can't count the correct number of fingers for a human.