I really enjoyed your accounting of what is happening with Transnistria. I served in the Peace Corps in Moldova 2015-2017. A time of beginning changes. Following much of it. But your synopsis is written in a way that makes all I've seen - and often misunderstood - start to make sense. I am rooting for the EU for Moldova and am so very proud of the monumental changes that have occurred and the path it is leading this wonderful country. Please keep us updated as thing move along. I suspect it will all be faster than we anticipate.
Is it the most preferable option for Moldova to "solve" the Transnistria issue on its own with soft EU and American support, without the two latter parties taking a serious stake in the issue?
The binary in your question is false. “Alone with soft support” versus a “serious stake” assumes serious means mediation. But thirty years of that is the point. Negotiations kept the peace and gave us leverage that still matters today, yet never ended an artificial conflict Russia provoked and sustained, and let Moscow wield a veto over our choices, undermining our sovereignty and neutrality. The serious stake already exists. Chisinau and Tiraspol can talk, and a decade of Moldova’s European integration has quietly done the work of reintegration. It is anything but soft. The left bank sells most of its exports into the EU market, our people on the left bank cross the river for jobs and Moldovan services, convergence keeps growing, and Brussels and Washington have been part of that all along. So not “on our own”, and not back to a table where Russia plays the same tune. Reintegration as a consequence of accession, on terms that deny Moscow a veto. That is the whole point.
I am an American, and I have never traveled to Moldova, so my perspective is not fully informed. My concern is this: Even if Moldova accedes to the EU (100% possible as seen by Cyprus), and fully manages to reintegrate the left bank in every political, economic, and practical sense; at the end of the day, there is still an illegal Russian military presence on the territory of Moldova. Absent kinetic action, the only actor that can remove that garrison is Russia.
Is the role of the EU and the USA here to wholly back Moldova and pressure Russia for an unconditional withdrawal for as long as it takes? Is your concern that Moldova's Western partners will attempt to hoist conditions upon Moldova as a part of a hypothetical deal brokered between the West and Russia on the Transnistria issue?
Thank you, Ben. To your first question. Yes, but with a shift in framing. We shall not wait on Russia’s goodwill to withdraw that garrison, and we cannot count on it doing so at all. The strategy should be to keep raising the cost of its presence and make it irrelevant, by peaceful and lawful means. It is already boxed in. Ukraine has blocked rotation since 2014, sealed the border since 2022, and what remains is a few hundred men guarding a rusting Soviet depot they cannot even resupply. A liability to Moscow, not a lever over us. But a serious Russian military weight in Europe sits in Kaliningrad, not Cobasna. What matters about our garrison is not that it is dangerous, but that it is illegal. The Western role is not to broker their exit, but to hold one line without wavering. Withdrawal is an obligation Russia already owes, affirmed at Istanbul in 1999 and by the UN in 2018, not a favour to be bought. The moment anyone offers Moscow a price for leaving, they concede its presence was a legitimate card. It never was.
And to your second question, directly. My concern is not too little Western support, because it is there. The worry is that the Transnistria issue may get folded into a wider bargain, over Ukraine or European security, with our sovereignty traded above our heads for a withdrawal already owed. Which is why the garrison was never the real question. A just and durable peace in Ukraine is. A just peace leaves those troops a stranded relic. An unjust one hands Moscow back every lever it holds over us, that garrison included. Ukraine security is our own security, Europe’s security.
I really enjoyed your accounting of what is happening with Transnistria. I served in the Peace Corps in Moldova 2015-2017. A time of beginning changes. Following much of it. But your synopsis is written in a way that makes all I've seen - and often misunderstood - start to make sense. I am rooting for the EU for Moldova and am so very proud of the monumental changes that have occurred and the path it is leading this wonderful country. Please keep us updated as thing move along. I suspect it will all be faster than we anticipate.
I enjoyed reading your piece.
Is it the most preferable option for Moldova to "solve" the Transnistria issue on its own with soft EU and American support, without the two latter parties taking a serious stake in the issue?
Thank you, dear Ben. Glad it resonated.
The binary in your question is false. “Alone with soft support” versus a “serious stake” assumes serious means mediation. But thirty years of that is the point. Negotiations kept the peace and gave us leverage that still matters today, yet never ended an artificial conflict Russia provoked and sustained, and let Moscow wield a veto over our choices, undermining our sovereignty and neutrality. The serious stake already exists. Chisinau and Tiraspol can talk, and a decade of Moldova’s European integration has quietly done the work of reintegration. It is anything but soft. The left bank sells most of its exports into the EU market, our people on the left bank cross the river for jobs and Moldovan services, convergence keeps growing, and Brussels and Washington have been part of that all along. So not “on our own”, and not back to a table where Russia plays the same tune. Reintegration as a consequence of accession, on terms that deny Moscow a veto. That is the whole point.
Thank you for responding. I fully agree.
I am an American, and I have never traveled to Moldova, so my perspective is not fully informed. My concern is this: Even if Moldova accedes to the EU (100% possible as seen by Cyprus), and fully manages to reintegrate the left bank in every political, economic, and practical sense; at the end of the day, there is still an illegal Russian military presence on the territory of Moldova. Absent kinetic action, the only actor that can remove that garrison is Russia.
Is the role of the EU and the USA here to wholly back Moldova and pressure Russia for an unconditional withdrawal for as long as it takes? Is your concern that Moldova's Western partners will attempt to hoist conditions upon Moldova as a part of a hypothetical deal brokered between the West and Russia on the Transnistria issue?
Thank you, Ben. To your first question. Yes, but with a shift in framing. We shall not wait on Russia’s goodwill to withdraw that garrison, and we cannot count on it doing so at all. The strategy should be to keep raising the cost of its presence and make it irrelevant, by peaceful and lawful means. It is already boxed in. Ukraine has blocked rotation since 2014, sealed the border since 2022, and what remains is a few hundred men guarding a rusting Soviet depot they cannot even resupply. A liability to Moscow, not a lever over us. But a serious Russian military weight in Europe sits in Kaliningrad, not Cobasna. What matters about our garrison is not that it is dangerous, but that it is illegal. The Western role is not to broker their exit, but to hold one line without wavering. Withdrawal is an obligation Russia already owes, affirmed at Istanbul in 1999 and by the UN in 2018, not a favour to be bought. The moment anyone offers Moscow a price for leaving, they concede its presence was a legitimate card. It never was.
And to your second question, directly. My concern is not too little Western support, because it is there. The worry is that the Transnistria issue may get folded into a wider bargain, over Ukraine or European security, with our sovereignty traded above our heads for a withdrawal already owed. Which is why the garrison was never the real question. A just and durable peace in Ukraine is. A just peace leaves those troops a stranded relic. An unjust one hands Moscow back every lever it holds over us, that garrison included. Ukraine security is our own security, Europe’s security.
So encouraging to hear a well-written account by a Moldovan with good news about what is going on, especially at a time like this!