The Parliamentary Roster is Now Final
Following the election and convening of a new parliament, MPs have a set period of time (around 30 days) to resolve any “incompatibilities” with their new role. According to the constitution and relevant laws, the role of a Member of Parliament (MP) is incompatible with virtually all paid work except for part time roles as teachers or academics. This means that for the most part, MPs must give up their other jobs when they are elected. If they are business owners, they may retain ownership but are barred from public procurements and they must step away from active management.
This week 8 MPs resigned their seats in parliament - with most stating that they preferred to keep their old jobs. Of these 8, 5 are from PAS, 2 are from “Our Party” and 1, Ion Ceban, is from Alternative. Mayor Ceban resigned in order to continue his role as Chisinau’s mayor. All MPs that resigned will be replaced with new candidates from their party’s list.
The 5 PAS MPs who left parliament are:
Maria Acbaș - Chose to remain the director of her agriculture business in Gagauzia.
Constantin Cheianu - Cited health reasons and stated that he “overestimated his capabilities and physical condition.”
Viorel Bostan - will remain rector of the Technical University.
Roman Cojuhari - will remain Director of the Public Property Agency.
Nicolae Drăgănel - will remain president of Călărași district.
With these resignations the new parliament is in its final form.
Quick Context: These 5 PAS MPs join 8 others who already resigned, 5 of them for positions in government. The large number of people who ran on the PAS lists but seem not to have intended to serve in parliament has provoked a lot of discussion in recent weeks. This included some of the highest profile PAS candidates - including Dorin Recean, Nicu Popescu and Artur Mija. The quick departure of candidates who undoubtedly inspired at least some personal support with voters is being criticized as an electoral strategy rather than a real presentation of a governing team.
It’s worth noting that this isn’t a new phenomenon, but these numbers are larger than normal. For example, no one really expected Mayor Ceban to leave his post and move to parliament. Should Alternative have become kingmakers and he was in a position to be Prime Minister he may have done so. But otherwise he was always going to return to city hall. This situation is an odd effect of the electoral and party system.
Other Political News:
Here’s a roundup of the other top news of the week:
The government plans to denounce multiple agreements with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). These agreements, all signed in the 90s, mostly govern scientific and technical cooperation on environmental, chemical and energy research and regulation. Most notably, Moldova plans to denounce the agreement on visa-free travel with CIS states. In practice, that would only immediately impact travelers from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as Moldova has separate bilateral agreements with other CIS states (including Russia). At the same time it is a step towards Moldova having the power to impose visa restrictions on residents of various CIS states.
Moldova did not receive a $170 million dollar loan tranche from the IMF. The IMF stated that the current “agreements expired in October 2025 due to delays in fulfilling the remaining tax and governance obligations.” The Ministry of Finance sought to play down concerns, noting that they have replaced the expected IMF funds with other loans under the EU Growth Package. Asked to comment, Speaker Grosu called the outcome a “political decision” by the government. He stated that they made the choice to increase salaries and pensions outside of the IMF’s austerity requirements to “help people.1” The Speaker noted that the IMF will send a new delegation in December and they will discuss a new package then.
Chisinau airport has taken over the use of the Lukoil fuel terminal. This was announced by Minister of Energy Dorin Junghietu, who stated that the turnover happened on November 12th. The airport has concluded a contract with Romanian energy suppliers and now with the use of the facility they do not envision any problems in providing fuel. The next step will be to negotiate with Lukoil on the purchase of these assets.
Will Moldova Be Forced to Sell Agricultural Land to EU Citizens?
This question was asked of EU Ambassador to Moldova, Iwona Piórko, in a recent interview. In her answer, she noted that each candidate country has the right to negotiate deferments (transition periods) with the EU but that eventually all member states must adopt EU legislation2. The opening of the rights to purchase various types of property is part of the EU’s free movement of capital.
This issue is certain to become one of the most politically salient and discussed of the country’s EU negotiations process. Many countries with major agricultural industries have negotiated deferments of 7-12 years where they could maintain restrictions on the sale of agricultural land. Often, these restrictions will allow the sale to other EU citizens but require them to be residents or otherwise create protections against mass land purchases from outside individuals or companies.
This narrative, that the government is “selling out our land to foreigners” is almost certain to be pushed by the opposition in the coming months and years. In many EU candidate countries that later joined the union this has been the case (leading to the negotiated deferments). There are actually no cases of countries where lots of agricultural land is bought up after EU membership. Once the predictions fail to come true, this populist narrative simply fades away. Instead of a foreign purchasing blitz, most countries entering the EU experience a moderate boom in internal agricultural investment as EU farm subsidies make the business much more lucrative.
Expect the government to try and negotiate hard to prevent these sales in order to defuse this narrative (for an amusing aside on why this really is a crazy narrative see footnote3). I wanted to flag this here because it’s not the last we’ll hear of the issue.
Shor & Hybrid Warfare News
Here’s a roundup of the top hybrid war / Kremlin related stories of the week:
Dmitry Konstantinov, Chairman of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, announced his intention to resign. He claims that he is doing so for health reasons and not due to any political pressure. In recent weeks he has tried to distance himself from Ilan Shor in interviews. He also stated that while not finalized, elections in the region could happen in March. Asked whether that would be for the People’s Assembly or both the People’s Assembly and the Bashkan, he said that he didn’t know but that it would be cheaper to hold them on the same day. Bashkan Gutsul remains officially in her post (as of today) while serving her prison sentence. Failure in her appeals or the upholding of other integrity related investigations against her will result in her removal from office and the need for new elections in the region.
The Mayor of Orhei is missing. Mayor Tatiana Cociu has not been seen in public for 50 days and she has not signed any official documents since September 23rd. The Orhei City Hall has stated that she is on vacation as of October 16th, but did not provide any details on where she went or when she might return. One municipal councilor speaking to ZdG stated that the predominant rumor is that she went to Moscow and is afraid to return to Moldova. Tatiana Cociu won the 2023 mayoral elections in Orhei as Ilan Shor’s backup candidate. He first supported Chance Party leader Alexei Lunga, but when the Chance party was excluded from the elections threw his support to Tatiana Cociu. Her disappearance comes in the context of increasing numbers of convictions of Shor’s regional representatives.
The Communist Party of Russia “honored” Vladimir Voronin with the Lenin Prize. The prize, which is awarded for special contribution to the promotion of socialism, justice and related cultural work, was also awarded to Kim Jong-un this year. Voronin responded by affirming his commitment to communism saying: “I re-established the Communist Party, participated in parliamentary elections four times, and served as president twice, all under the communist banner. This is the meaning of my life.” At the same time he noted that he found out about the award from the news as no one contacted him. Asked what he would do next he said he has no plans to travel to Russia and will let them call him about it.
PAS MP Maria Acbaș alleged to have taken €20,000 euros from Shor. This alleged scandal broke when various Telegram channels began circulating a 2023 report from Moldova’s Security and Intelligence Service (SIS) which flagged a payment to her agribusiness as likely originating with Shor. These claims were then amplified by PPDA Party leader Vasile Costiuc. Recall that in 2023 Ilan Shor created multiple money laundering schemes to funnel money to public works projects and directly as voter bribery in Gagauzia4. These schemes were managed from Shor proxy Igal (Igor) Shved in Kazakhstan. There, the 61 year old Israeli-Russian dual citizen would make “donations” to schools, community centers, etc. It was all conducted under the guise of one of Shor’s NGOs. Maria Acbaș, who resigned from parliament this week to return to her company, stated that when the funds arrived at her company “we did not even touch this money.” She stated that the local government of Gagauzia had drawn up lists of companies in the agricultural sector that were impacted by the drought. Then, money appeared in their account which was nominally support money from an “outside donor.” Maria Acbaș claims that they had heard the rumor that the money was from Shor and did not touch it and cooperated with the authorities - particularly the National Anti-Corruption Center (CNA). She said that after a while the money was simply removed from their account.
(Another) Tragedy at the Hotel National
On November 7th a 13 year old girl was found dead at the Hotel National. She had been reported missing the night before by her mother who stated that she failed to return from school. The event was followed by an extremely emotional post by one of the firefighters who found her and a broad public outcry about the building’s condition.
The hotel, which is among the first things anyone arriving from the airport sees, is derelict and has been largely abandoned since 2006. Prior to that year, the building and accompanying restaurant were owned and operated by the state owned company “Moldova-Tur.” It was privatized under dubious circumstances and has been on an ownership journey since - currently it is owned by an offshore shell company registered in Belize.
The shell of the hotel is essentially open to the public and has become a gathering place for the homeless, drug users and kids getting up to trouble. The building is quite dangerous and in the last 3 years alone police have had to respond to many calls related to the building. These included 2 suicides, both by children, and 1 seriously injured teenage girl who became paralyzed after a fall.
As the public outcry has built over why the building is not closed off, Mayor Ceban complained that the city is not allowed to block off the building because it is private property. He called on the government to do something about the problem. Anger has built as nearby residents filmed more kids in the building in the days after the death and the police and fire department have continued to respond to calls to remove them.
Former Deputy Mayor Victor Chironda5 has stated that “There are no legal provisions that prohibit the city hall from taking measures to protect abandoned buildings.” He noted that they could install a fence, or act on the owner’s failure to make the property safe and take them to court over it.
On November 17th Mayor Ceban reversed course and instructed his team to wall off the site - and to send the bill to the owners of the building.
“Stagflation”
Inflation increased from 6.9% in September to 7% in October according to national statistics. Economists note that it remains under control, if stubbornly above the National Bank’s 5±1.5% target. The uptick was driven by food prices and slightly offset by a fall in energy prices.
Economist Veaceslav Ioniță has started using the “S” word - Stagflation - to describe the situation that the country is in. Speaking of the last 5 years he stated:
“We essentially experienced an 80% price increase with virtually zero economic growth. Industry and agriculture failed to recover to 2019 levels.”
He went on to write:
“VAT revenues, reflecting economic activity, stagnated in 2023–2024, remaining at around 30 billion lei. Only in 2025 did they experience a slight recovery, reaching 36.6 billion lei—a level comparable to 2019 at the real exchange rate. We experienced unprecedented inflation, GDP stagnation, a decline in production and exports, job losses, and a decline in consumption. All of this clearly characterizes the phenomenon of stagflation—an unfavorable economic environment for both the population and the business environment,”
In short, the Moldovan economy is still struggling to find its feat after the double crises of COVID and war.
“We’re in for a Cold Winter”
…or so everyone says. I wanted to briefly address this concern because the “certainty” of a catastrophically cold winter across all of Europe has become something that many commentators are taking for granted right now. Recently, a ZdG editorial opened with the following passage:
“In less than three weeks we will enter winter. According to meteorologists, in Europe, and therefore in the Republic of Moldova, we will have a harsh winter, the likes of which we have not had in recent decades: low temperatures, heavy snowfalls... The winter could be not only colder, but also longer, having, according to specialists, direct harmful effects on agriculture, transport and the global economy.”
It’s telling that even in very prestigious publications, no one feels the need to expand on the line “according to specialists.”
To be clear - there are zero scientifically proven tools for predicting the weather more than 15 days out. Anyone who tries to plan a picnic for the weekend only to be surprised by a changed forecast should be skeptical about crystal balls looking months into the future. We may have a very cold winter with lots of blizzards, or we may have a very mild winter (like in recent years). We just don’t know.
If you feel strongly about the effects of La Niña on European winters, or have some other evidence of this - feel free to leave a comment. But it is important to realize that there is no certainty of a harsher than normal winter as is being broadly discussed right now.
We’ll just have to see what winter brings and how that will impact the country’s ever-precarious energy situation.
Read: “win elections.”
Except Hungary of course, which still makes it virtually impossible for non-citizens to buy land. The EU is suing them about this, etc, etc.
In addition to there simply being no evidence of this being a problem that comes with joining the EU, we can look at internal factors as well. Moldova has some of the best and most fertile agricultural land in Europe. At the same time, it has some of the worst laws and regulations for doing business. In particular, land consolidation is a nightmare in Moldova.
When the Soviet Union fell there was little to no heavy industry outside of Transnistria. So while Ukraine and Russia saw “businessmen” privatize state assets for a song and thus become oligarchs, Moldova didn’t. Here, the main asset - collective farms - were divided amongst the people. This had various political benefits, and it really helped people through the lean times in the 90s. Now however, this legacy means that all the land is divided up into tiny parcels - and it’s very hard to put them back together.
People who work in this area find it laughable that anyone could sweep in and buy large swaths of productive land without running into the same problems that Moldovan farmers have in this process.
Chironda was forced out of office by Mayor Ceban in a dispute that largely focused on the Mayor’s insistence that he sign off on the demolition of the hotel. Chironda claimed that key regulatory steps were being bypassed to hastily approve a major construction project in the area. He refused to sign paperwork he considered illegal and was forced out.