Weekly Roundup: The Elections are Declared Valid
The process of forming a new government will begin next week
Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections are Valid
The Constitutional Court (CC) reviewed reports from the Central Election Commission (CEC) and heard arguments on the validity of the recent elections on October 16th. The main contention in question was the fate of the “Democracy at Home” party (PPDA) and their surprise 6 seats in parliament.
Recall, the PAS party had filed a complaint with the CEC asking for PPDA’s mandates to be invalidated. The complaint was based on a campaign video by George Simion calling on his supporters to support PPDA1. The CEC had additionally gathered evidence of a large scale TikTok campaign in support of PPDA which the party did not finance. The CEC had issued a warning and moved to restrict the party’s access to state financing for a year. The Court of Appeals overturned the decision allowing for continued state financing while maintaining the warning… then, the Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ) overturned the lower court’s ruling and reinstated the CEC’s prohibition on receiving state financing.
In the Constitutional Court hearing yesterday, PAS representatives reversed their position from September 28th and requested that the court seat all 6 MPs from PPDA. Asked about the unaccounted for TikTok campaign, PPDA leader Vasile Costiuc stated:
We are ready in the next Parliament to give a masterclass to all those who want to listen to us,”
He implied that organic reach and really cool videos could account for the lack of financing2.
There was something of a lively debate with the Socialist Party insisting that the whole election was fraudulent and needed to be annulled (with absolutely zero evidence).
Ultimately, President of the Court, Domnica Manole, ruled that there were no “violations serious enough to make it impossible to determine the opinion of the electorate.”
All parliamentary mandates were validated. President Sandu announced that she would convene parliament for their initial session on October 22nd at 10 am.
Alexandru Munteanu is Put Under a Microscope
The new PAS candidate for Prime Minister, Alexandru Munteanu, had a tough first few days in the spotlight. With so little known about him, investigative outlets started digging into his past and began releasing a number of unflattering reports.
RISE Moldova reported that Munteanu’s name is connected to 5 companies in offshore jurisdictions reported on in the Pandora Papers, the largest leak of tax haven data in history. They don’t allege any wrongdoing, but they note that some of these companies had links to Cypriot lawyer Christodoulos Vassiliades who is now under international sanctions for laundering the money of various Russian oligarchs close to the Kremlin.
Munteanu had previously chosen not to make detailed statements after his name was announced, indicating that he would wait until after the Constitutional Court validated the elections. This cost him narrative initiative and let these stories run wild. He eventually responded, and first took aim at RISE saying:
“I received questions on the official page [his brand new official facebook page] at 12:53 about the companies and the funds managed. Just as I was preparing the answers, 20 minutes later, the accusations were already published. I will answer them one by one here, I am certain that citizens deserve as much honesty and openness as possible:”
He went on to explain the purpose of the various companies, as well as the fact that he is not affiliated with any of them since 2019. He details, for example, how some of these companies were special purpose vehicles for joint investments by his firm, Dragon Capital and the EBRD. Munteanu also noted that he inherited the relationship with the Cypriot firm when he came into Dragon Capital and cut ties immediately after he discovered the Kremlin connections. He detailed all this information on his newly created facebook page and has begun doing TV interviews to get ahead of the forming narratives.
Overall, Mr. Munteanu seems to be managing his “baptism of the press” and has found sympathizers among other outlets who criticized RISE’s extremely short comment window.
Speaking about his selection, President Sandu stated:
“This man, a week ago, had no plans to become prime minister. He supported us with his vote, he worried, as many citizens, at home or abroad, worried, for the fate of the Republic of Moldova. When I called him, after several discussions in which I explained why we needed his profile, him specifically, the man said he was coming to lend a helping hand. If there are people who don’t want to believe that he wants to do good for the country, that’s their business,”
Asked about the criticisms, she went on to joke: “I honestly believe that if we resurrected Stephen the Great, even he wouldn’t be good enough for some of our compatriots.”
Alexandru Munteanu also commented to the press on this whirlwind process saying:
“It was very unexpected, it was a beautiful evening, I was sitting with my wife, arranging our things, making plans and the phone rang. Figuratively speaking, when the phone of history rings, you have to pick it up. I didn’t know who was calling me, but I recognized the voice. She asked me what I was doing that evening and we talked a little about the evening, the puppies, about Codruț [Maia Sandu’s 3-legged rescue dog], about my puppy Cupper and the President tells me: ‘You realize that I’m calling you to tell you something else’. That’s how the conversation started. (…)
10 days ago I was a free person who was thinking about vacations, about universities, and now I’m in the Republic of Moldova because this was, I think, a calling in my life. I realize the responsibility I carry. (…)
Madam President was very convincing. I can’t say no when a president of the country calls me to duty. That’s how my parents raised me. When the country calls you - you can’t say no. It’s the place where I was born and I want to achieve something here, for the country”
Asked how the process of forming a cabinet of ministers was going, Munteanu stated that PAS had given him complete freedom to choose his team without preconditions. He stated that 80-90% of the ministers have already been selected but that he is continuing to consult inside and outside of political circles. Asked about the current team he stated “I like this team. I think they’ve handled the security challenges that have impacted Moldova well.”
It remains unclear which current ministers are staying on and who Munteanu might be considering bringing from the outside.
Other Political Updates
Here’s a roundup of other top political stories of the week:
Ion Ceban will remain Mayor of Chisinau. After being elected first on the list of the Alternative Bloc, he will give up his seat in parliament in order to stay as mayor.
Vladimir Voronin has announced that the Communist Party will break away from the Patriotic Bloc. The Communists, who represent 8 of the 26 seats won by the bloc, will form their own faction. This is not official as factions are not formed until the first seating of parliament. If they do break away, the Communists will be tied for 3rd largest faction with Alternative, and Voronin will have once again proved wrong those who were writing his political obituary (including me).
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov threatened the new Moldovan parliament, comparing their “unfriendly” actions to Ukraine’s and threatening a similar outcome. He said:
“This is a continuation of a rather confrontational direction towards our country, an unfriendly line. From our point of view, the current leaders of Moldova are making a serious mistake,”
“They believe that developing relations with Europe requires totally antagonizing Russia. Another country has already made this mistake and it has not brought it any good,”
Igor Dodon was the only major Moldovan political leader to send Putin birthday congratulations. He wrote “On your birthday, dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, I wish you good health, prosperity, and strength.” He went on to talk about how all Moldovan’s really love Russia, etc, etc, etc.
On October 8th the outgoing government approved a 10 year military strategy. The plan lays out a path for Moldova to spend 1% of GDP on defense by 2030. Then Prime Minister Recean commented on criticisms of the plan saying:
“Every time we talk about investing in Moldova’s defense, in the National Army, we hear hysterical voices against it. They have kept the army in poverty and chaos for all these decades. They praise the Kremlin, but they forget to mention that the Kremlin spends 7% of GDP and 32% of its budget on wars. 32% means that every third dollar of the Russian budget goes toward killing children, young people, and residents of Ukraine,”
Transnistria & Energy Crisis
As cooler autumn temperatures begin to set in, it appears the breakaway region is facing another winter of crisis. Since October 1st Transnistria has been rationing their natural gas due to what the regional “authorities” called:
“unfavorable circumstances associated with the need to restore the flow of financial aid from Russia”
Moldova’s Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Roman Rosca commented on the information noting that the government was monitoring the situation, and explaining that the “payer is changing, which has delayed the financing of the next gas supply.”
Russia has been financing the purchase of gas from the region via different shady companies and jurisdictions and the ever shifting nature of the source of funds has begun to create complications with payments.
By October 8th some Moldovan villages in the security zone that are connected to electricity via Transnistria started experiencing rolling blackouts. Rumors of region wide rolling blackouts being re-implemented circulated last week. Transit supplier MoldovaGaz announced yesterday that gas will begin flowing again on October 17th with enough supply for moderate electricity generation. These supplies are not sufficient to power heavy industry, or consumer needs in the cold season.
This shaky supply situation underscores the potential for a new energy crisis in Transnistria this winter. The Moldovan government has assured that they are prepared for winter and are continuing to offer Transnistria support, along with EU financing for energy purposes, conditional on democratic reforms.
Shor & Hybrid Warfare Updates
Here’s a roundup of the top stories related to the Kremlin’s hybrid war against Moldova of the past week:
The court published the full verdict in their conviction of top Shor lieutenant Marina Tauber. In it, they detail how Tauber falsified party donation forms in the 2021 Balti mayoral election, thereby facilitating illicit party financing on behalf of a criminal organization. Prosecutors are appealing the ruling, claiming that the 7.5 year sentence is insufficient and asking the appeals court to reconsider some charges that were dismissed or lessened. They ask for a 13 year sentence. Tauber remains in Russia, and according to Chief of the National Police, Viorel Cernăuteanu, she is not yet on the wanted list as they are awaiting a court order.
Investigations into voter bribery continue. We haven’t covered the slow but steady cadence of convictions related to the 2024 presidential elections, but they are ongoing. This week a court found 2 residents of Sîngerei guilty of paying voters 2400 lei to “vote a certain way” or for “any presidential candidate except one.” The convicted face fines of 40,000 lei. Stories like this continue weekly, as do new cases being opened in relation to the 2025 parliamentary elections including a new investigation against 6 members of the clergy accused of illegal campaigning.
A court decision has been made upholding the CEC’s decision to exclude the “Moldova Mare” from the electoral race. The ejection of Victoria Furtuna’s party at the last minute was upheld in a 41 page decision that brought together evidence from law enforcement and public work by investigative journalists. Evidence was provided that Ilan Shor’s financial manager supplied the party with €50,000 euros in June, €300,000 for July and €370,000 for August. They also demonstrated that Russian citizen Anton Tregub, a close Shor associate and past Shor electoral advisor, had instructed Furtuna on who was to be part of her party and how they should run in the race. Writing in the decision, the judges stated:
“We have proof of the massive flow of money from abroad, proof of their planned spending in the campaign, proof of direct foreign influence on the party’s decisions and proof of resorting to illegal means (bribery) to obtain votes. This multitude of data, exact figures, dated conversations and confirmed actions far exceeds any reasonable doubt regarding the party’s commission of the imputed acts and the systematic nature of these acts.” (…)
“A warning or a fine would have been ignored or absorbed without difficulty by an actor supported by almost unlimited material from the outside,”
They concluded that removing the party was “the only effective remedy to stop the rigging of elections.”
Economic Updates
In Moldova inflation has continued to cool. Annual inflation fell in August from 7.9% to 7.3%, prompting a rate cut from the National Bank from 6.25% to 6%. Inflation continued to fall in September ending at 6.9%. The inflation rate started the year at 9% in January, and the National Bank projects a return to the target corridor of 5% ± 0.5% by December.
In other economic news, the outgoing government approved the creation of the Moldova International Stock Exchange. The government will own 20% of the new exchange which is being created in collaboration with the Bucharest Stock Exchange. According to a government press release:
”The new stock exchange will allow companies to access alternative sources of financing through the issuance of shares and bonds, will increase market transparency and strengthen the confidence of local and international investors. The initiative will contribute to diversifying the economy’s financing instruments and reducing dependence on bank lending,”
Aka foreign interference by a person banned from Moldova as a national security risk.
Which is patently untrue and proven already.