Weekly Roundup: Romania Tilts Towards Crisis and Other Updates
November 29, 2024
Moldova Watches Nervously as Romanian Politics Tilt Towards Crisis
Romania’s contentious first round presidential elections last Sunday continue to shock Europe and risk tipping the country into a political crisis. Outgoing President Iohanis convened the Supreme Council of Defense to discuss the election and the body concluded that "there were cyber attacks with the aim of influencing the fairness of the electoral process." Specifically the body stated that a candidate (unnamed, but clearly Calin Georgescu) violated electoral legislation in order to benefit from massive preferential treatment on TikTok. Basically, that neither Calin Georgescu nor TikTok marked his videos as campaign videos. This meant that the candidate’s massive hashtag campaign (allegedly conducted via 100,000+ users and bots) gained far more traction that the campaign materials of other candidates due to the TikTok algorithm’s bias against marked political content.
The Romanian President also confirmed to the council that he had no prior warning from state security institutions that there was any risk or that they had any evidence of attempts to interfere in the election.
Mr. Georgescu has spent the week in the limelight in Romania with the top search term in the country being “Cine este Călin Georgescu?” (“who is Calin Georgescu?”). Those investigating found additional messianic-religious pronunciations from the candidate including that C-section births are “tragic” because "the divine connection is broken," COVID-19 is fake because “god does not make mistakes” (viruses presumably), the moon landing was faked and a woman can’t be president because "She won’t be able to cope." Most critically the press has focused on his pro-Putin, anti-NATO and “legionary” (aka Fascist adjacent at best) statements.
On Thursday the Romanian Constitutional Court ordered a recount of the round 1 votes on the basis of obscure complaints by minor parties and NGOs. Romanian pundits speculate that this is being done to prepare the ground for a cancelation of the first round results early next week. Waiting until next week would allow this Sunday’s parliamentary vote to complete before the expected backlash from the far right. Any actual recount would take weeks or up to a month and likely result in an acting president taking office when Iohanis’ term expires in December. Romanian writers speculate that 3rd place finisher Marcel Ciolacu, Prime Minister and former leader of the PSD is attempting to use these technicalities to obtain a favorable recount and bypass second place finisher Elena Lasconi (leading by 2700 votes).
For his part Prime Minister Ciolacu announced that he will withdraw from the race even if it is proven that he was rightfully in second place. He wrote that he does not want second place but that:
"We need to know clearly if the vote was rigged. More directly: if it was STOLEN!"
What will actually happen is unclear and beyond the remit of this newsletter. What is clear is that last week Romania was a politically stable partner for Moldova in many areas including being a top supporter of the country’s EU integration. It was a reliable member of the EU and critical NATO partner and supporter of Ukraine. Now, the media buzzes with talk of the far right coming to power, Russian interference, canceling elections, expelling candidates, mystical theories about the moon landing and more. In a region where stability is in precious short supply this situation is not great.
In Moldova, Socialist Party leader Igor Dodon is thrilled, praising the results of the elections saying that:
"In Romania, the idea of national interest has come to the fore - sovereignty, protection of the economy, traditions and Christian values. The same is happening in Moldova. We saw the first signal in the presidential elections, when the candidate nominated by the socialists won in the country. And when the citizens of the country rejected the pro-European referendum. The final victory will be in 2025 in the parliamentary elections, when Moldovans vote en masse for the national interest of our country,"
President Sandu made an appeal to Romanian voters ahead of the parliamentary elections this weekend saying:
"See what the Kremlin is doing to its neighbors? They blackmail them, bomb them, kill them. Do you see what it does to its own citizens? He imprisons them just for being against the war or for criticizing the authorities. (...) We don't want the Kremlin to dictate Bucharest's relations with Chisinau",
Amidst all the accusations of Russian influence, geopolitics, etc, there is also clearly a major backlash against establishment parties. Romania is in for a bumpy ride.
1000 Days of War
November 19th marked a grim milestone as 1000 days passed since the beginning of Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine.
"For 1,000 days, Ukraine has been facing relentless aggression and throughout this entire period its people have remained strong showing the world it’s unshakable resilience and incredible courage
Today you are fighting not only for your own freedom but for all people who believe in a peaceful world. (…)
Moldova is with you—now and always. Glory to Ukraine"
You can watch the statement in full, in English, here.
Parliament also lit up its courtyard with the colors of the Ukrainian flag in solidarity.
Security and Transnistria News
Here are the top security and Transnistria stories of the week:
Transnistrian “Leader” Vadim Krasnoselsky appointed a new mayor of Tiraspol. Media reported that the old mayor, Oleg Dovgopol, who was in office since 2016 was arrested over an unnamed “disagreement” with Krasnoselsky. The new mayor is Ilona Tyuryaeva.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Moldova. He met with Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi stating that “Moldova’s freedom and future are very important.” The UK will provide Moldova with 5 million GBP in support of Ukrainian refugees in the country and 2 million GBP to aid the government’s cybersecurity efforts. In addition (or in return) Moldova signed a "readmission agreement" whereby the country is prepared to accept back Moldovan citizens deported from the UK for illegal migration.
On November 28th Residents in a village in Norther Moldova claimed that 4 missiles flew over their houses and struck nearby in Ukraine. Ukraine later reported that there was a missile attack on the nearby Novodnistrovsk hydroelectric power station but that it was repelled by air defense. The Moldovan Ministry of Defense stated that they detected no violations of the country’s airspace.
Bashkan Gutsul’s media advisor led an independence rally in Gagauzia. Her advisor, Mihail Vlah, had recently courted controversy by releasing a video calling for President Sandu and Igor Dodon to be killed. At the rally he called for people to prevent any ministers of the Chisinau government from entering Gagauzia and stated that the answer to various (real or perceived) injustices was to declare a Gagauze Republic. A few hundred people attended and no effort was made to hide the organized transportation of protestors from journalists.
The Central Election Commission (CEC) is auditing 4 political parties and “independent” candidate Victoria Furtuna. The parties are all related to Shor, namely: Chance, Pobeda (Victory), Alternative Force for Saving Moldova and Future of Moldova (the party of candidate Vasile Tarlev). The CEC is collecting reports from the parties on their financing and spending and will compare it against information collected by state security agencies. A report is planned for public release on March 1st.
Russia’s Prosecutor General has announced a criminal case against Renato Usatii. They allege that Usatii, in collaboration with Veaceslav Platon and Vladimir Plahotniuc illegally transferred 175 billion rubbles out of the Russian Federation as part of a large scale money laundering scheme. The case has been sent to court and they plan to try him in absentia claiming no luck getting Moldova to extradite him. Mr. Usatii denies involvement and called the charges fabricated.
Political News
Here is a roundup of the top politics stories of the week:
Last week’s cabinet reshuffle is getting mixed reactions. Opposition groups called the reshuffle a “joke” or “cosmetic” because only one minister was brought in from outside existing government institutions. Igor Dodon made comments to Russian state broadcaster TASS suggesting that the decision to leave the Minister of Justice was in place meant that the government thought justice reform was going well.1 Supporters of the current government criticized "changes for the sake of change" and questioned whether or not new ministers could be effective with only around 6 months before the next elections.
Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban announced the opening of a MAN party office in Gagauzia. His party continues announcing new regional offices as they prepare for parliamentary elections. In his announcements he is emphasizing his record as mayor of “implementing” changes and calls MAN a “party of action.”
Marina Tauber has proposed that parliament recognize that Maia Sandu is conducting a “genocide” against the Moldovan people. PAS refused to comment on the statements. The use of the word “genocide” is notable as it reflects Kremlin use of the term as a pretext for war in Ukraine.
Moldovan Israeli Rabbi Zvi Kogan was kidnapped and murdered in the UAE. The UAE has arrested 3 Uzbek citizens for the murder but the investigation is only beginning. President Sandu condemned the act writing:
"We mourn the tragic loss of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, a Moldovan-Israeli citizen killed in the UAE, and strongly condemn this hateful act. Hate has no place in our world. Our thoughts are with his family, the Jewish community, and all who grieve. We are in contact with Israel and the UAE."
Crime, Corruption and Justice Reform
Here is a roundup of the top justice sector stories of the week:
Parliament plans on passing the law creating an Anti-Corruption Court in December. The law was passed in the first reading back in December 2023 and has since changed in major ways. The first version of the law envisioned a new first level court specialized in corruption cases. The new version plans to add an anti-corruption panel to the existing Buicani first level court (which already handles most anti-corruption cases). Decisions would then be appealable to another specialized anti-corruption panel at the appeals court and then to the Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ). MPs are still taking feedback and consulting on the court’s creation but hope to have it passed in December.
The National Anti-Corruption Center (CNA) has announced that fines for voter bribery are now up to 7 million lei in total. They have continued leveling around 1 million lei / week in fines since the election ended. 2
Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Dragalin has lost her state protective detail. The detail was withdrawn with little warning or explanation. Asked about the situation Speaker of Parliament Igor Grusu implied that she had little to fear because she was accomplishing so little saying:
"As for security, that's not for me. They probably analyzed the risks or lack thereof and made that decision. Now we see a threat to the judges. I don't know. Given the amount of work or how much she worked, who should she be protected from? From Entourage3 or from someone else?"
Economics and Infrastructure
The National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE) approved MoldovaGaz’s request to raise natural gas prices for consumers. The company had requested a 35% increase in the purchase price but the ANRE ultimately approved a 27.5% increase.
The news is becoming a political scandal in Moldova as companies and politicians race to assign blame for the fact that the country purchased too little gas in the warm months. It now appears that the country’s strategic reserve is adequate only until January resulting in more severe price fluctuations as markets increase prices. Last year the government was responsible for preparing these reserves through the state enterprise Energocom under the rules of the State of Emergency. This year, with the State of Emergency canceled, both government and Energocom blame MoldovaGaz for failing to make forward leaning purchases when prices were low. All parties are blaming the other and promising to prove their case next week at parliamentary hearings.
Scandal aside, a major increase in gas prices coupled with worries about electricity prices are threatening to create major financial pain for Moldovans this winter. Prime Minister Recean sought to calm citizens speaking on public TV saying:
"No one will pay more expensive gas this winter than last winter in their bills.
Including the increases approved today by ANRE, people will be protected, because the Government will grant compensation to all those who need it",
The statement itself has a major contradiction - “no one” and “all those who need it” each speak to different policy intentions. Based on the compensation mechanism in place this year using cash subsidies it is possible that the government will be able to shield some of the least well off consumers from the price hikes. At the same time companies and more well off individuals are unlikely to benefit from compensation.
Incredibly this situation seemed to come out of nowhere almost as soon as the weather turned cold. Moldova has again rolled into a new crisis just in time to replace the last one.
Meanwhile, new economic forecasts predict GDP growth of 3-3.7% over the years 2025-2027. These forecasts contradict with previous announced growth plans and indicate that on the current trajectory Moldova will be unable to catch up to EU standards in the near future. Experts are divided on what the best approach to growth is and these discussions foreshadow what is likely to be a key issue in the parliamentary election campaign.
It is worth keeping in mind that Mr. Dodon is happy to attack the government for failing to reform justice fast enough, and to himself believe that no justice reform is needed at all. Holding absolutely contradictory positions is possible for many opposition candidates, in part, because they are not challenged to present their own plans. Certainly Mr. Dodon’s choice of speaking to TASS was to assure that he was not challenged.
1 million lei / week in fines equates to around 33 people. Given their announcements of 130,000 people being bribed, at this rate it will take 75 years to finish punishing all the voters who took bribes. The CNA is relying on “1 million” to sound like a big number, but in reality these numbers are not promising.
Entourage refers to a restaurant in the center of Chisinau understood to be owned by Plahotnuic or his associates. Soon after taking office in 2022 Dragalin was photographed there meeting with people she called “childhood friends.” She was privately warned of the danger of being seen at this restaurant but responded publicly saying that “I can go to Entourage and at the same time investigate the Plahotniuc case. I don’t see a conflict of interest here,” This represented the first of many divides between Dragalin and various figures in government and is representative of a feeling that as a long time member of the diaspora Dragalin payed insufficient interest to local advice.