Weekly Roundup: Europe Stands Alone(?)
March 4, 2025
"Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It's up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.”
This was stated by Kaja Kallas, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, following the meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy and Vance in the Oval Office.
President Sandu joined the chorus of European leaders expressing support for Ukraine following the meeting with a post on X saying:
The fallout from the explosive Oval Office meeting rippled across Europe over the weekend with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen stating the European Union must “urgently” rearm and help make Ukraine into a "steel porcupine" that is "indigestible for future invaders."
The news of this meeting and following “pause” of American military aid to Ukraine has struck Moldova particularly hard. Moldova made a lot of appearances in the international press this weekend - none for a good reason. French President Macron stated in an interview that if Putin is not stopped he "will certainly continue with Moldova and maybe beyond, in Romania." Many similar statements have been made by leaders and commentators who all recognize that Moldova is next on the list after Ukraine.
Antonio Costa Visits Chisinau in Show of Support
Yesterday President Maia Sandu met with President of the European Council Antonio Costa in Chisinau. This meeting was timed to the 3rd anniversary of Moldova’s application to join the EU and while official remarks were focused on the EU’s support to Moldova, some questions at the press conference turned towards defense. In response to a question about whether Moldova will also increase defense spending alongside Europe, Costa stated that the EU will offer Moldova an additional €60 million euros in defense support in 2025. President Sandu made it clear that the EU was critical for Moldova’s future security saying that “only in the European Union will we be protected, we will be safe” and that “EU membership is a guarantee of future peace, freedom and development.”
Antonio Costa pledged more support to Moldova in overcoming Russia’s energy blackmail. He also celebrated Moldova’s progress saying:
“I am very happy to be here in Chisinau on this symbolic day. Three years ago, you, Madam President, signed Moldova’s official application for membership of the European Union. Since then, Moldova has been on a path of transformation, moving ever closer to the European Union. I am impressed by how much your country has achieved in these three challenging years.”
How Far Could America Withdraw from the World?
With all eyes focused on the meeting at the White House a second story regarding the Trump administration got a lot less attention. Politico reported that the Trump Administration has plans to dramatically downsize the US State Department. These plans involve scaling back or cutting bureaus focused on advancing democracy, promoting human rights and other public diplomacy and soft power functions. Offices that would be safe in the cuts would involve protecting US security, promoting investment in the United States and work governing “transactional” agreements between countries.
The plan does not only envision cutting a significant portion of staff, but also closing Embassies around the world in countries that aren’t deemed to be important to these new priorities. One former official quoted by Politico stated that the plan is…
“going to dramatically shrink the ambit of American diplomacy, dramatically shrink the purpose and the practice of our diplomacy and return it, if not to the 19th century, at least pre-World War II,”
Politico cites sources that say Marco Rubio is “on board” with closing a significant number of embassies globally. The State Department has apparently asked the Defense Department, CIA, Justice Department and Department of Homeland Security to rate each embassy by region on a 1-10 scale. The provided rubric assures that 25% of embassies by region will be ranked 0-2 and another 25% ranked 3-5, which would seem to imply an effort to eliminate a percentage of “unimportant” diplomatic missions in each region. While Politico’s reports indicate that these plans are in early stages the last month has shown that such cuts can move very quickly.
Is the US Embassy in Chisinau at Risk?
In times like these it is impossible to make predications. The idea that the United States would close embassies in this manner anywhere in the world was unthinkable 6 weeks ago.
So while we don’t know anything concrete, it would seem that these criteria are not good for the US Embassy in Chisinau. The fact that there are few commercial ties between the United States and Moldova has meant that the embassy here does not have a commercial section. There is also no FBI office or major law enforcement presence. Traditionally, US Embassy Chisinau has primarily served as a development partner (working with USAID) and in roles related to public diplomacy. Other roles, such as commerce and law enforcement have typically been managed by the US missions in Bucharest and Kyiv.
In addition, current plans to build a new US Embassy in Chisinau are expected to cost tens of millions of dollars - an expenditure that is hard to imagine in the current cost cutting environment. Without this new investment, the Chisinau mission adds an antiquated building that the State Department has been desperate to get rid of to the list of problems.
Political Updates
Here’s a roundup of the top politics stories of the last week:
On March 2nd Moldova observed the Day of Memory and Gratitude commemorating those who died in the 1992 Transnistria War. President Sandu, Prime Minister Recean and Speaker Grosu attended events with veterans. The President commended the “self-sacrifice, bravery, and patriotism” of those who fought to defend the country 33 years ago.
Parliament voted in the first reading to index pensions by 10% on April 1st. This indexation would only apply to pensions up to the projected monthly national average salary for 2025 which is 16,100 lei.
Igor Dodon gave an interview to TASS where he once again stated that Moldova should be at the table for discussions of partitioning Ukraine. He said that there are hundreds of thousands of “Moldovan speakers” in Ukraine who need protection.
President Sandu stated that Moldova is in talks with the US about preserving energy assistance programs pledged under USAID. She stated:
"As for the assistance we received from the United States, and in particular through the USAID program. The energy program is extremely important for us. It involves investments in the power lines in Straseni1. The second energy project concerns the potential for energy storage and production. And we are discussing with the United States the continuation of these projects. If it does not work out, then obviously we will discuss with other partners the continuation of these extremely important projects for citizens. So that we can provide citizens with electricity and reduce its cost,"
Crime, Corruption and Justice Reform
Here’s a roundup of the top crime, corruption and justice reform stories of the week:
The prosecution rests in the "kuliok" case against Igor Dodon. Two years into the trial the defense will now begin to present their case. Anti-Corruption Prosecutors blamed the delays in the trial on changes in the composition of the Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ) due to vetting during the period. They also noted that defense motions produced delays and that there were delays in producing some of their 15 witnesses. The defense has announced plans to call 190 witnesses. Recall the "kuliok" case involves a 2019 video showing Vladimir Plahotniuc giving a bag (a "kuliok") to Igor Dodon. Prosecutors allege that the bag contained around $800,000 for salaries and expenses of the Socialist Party. In February 2024 a defense motion was granted to provide for a technical analysis of the video in question. At the time the analysis was projected to be done in March 2025. We’ll see if they manage to produce it on time. This is only 1 of 3 cases against Igor Dodon involving corruption that are mired in the court system.
The prosecution rests in a “Russian Laundromat” case against Veaceslav Platon. This case has also languished in court after being first charged in 2021. Anti-Corruption Prosecutors blamed the delays in this trial on the repeated failures of the defense to show up for court - failures that resulted (eventually) in court sanction. They also noted that the complexity of the case resulting in long witness testimony. Platon is charged with various instances of money laundering, corporate raiding and other financial crimes. He is currently residing in London.
Alexei Cotorobai was arrested on charges of murder and rape. Alexei Cotorobai came to the public’s attention back in May 2024 when his brother, Gheorghe Cotorobai, was arrested for the rape and murder of 19 year old, 6 month pregnant, Ana-Maria. We covered both brothers at the time. Gheorghe Cotorobai has since been convicted and sentenced to life in prison. Alexei Cotorobai is a member of the Chance Party and stood as a candidate in the 2023 local elections. He is accused of murdering a 10 month old baby 15 years ago and then covering it up. For more details on the brother’s who shocked the nation see this article from May 2024:
Prosecutors have secured another conviction against a judge in the Russian Laundromat case. The court ruled that the judge facilitated the laundering of $1.2 billion USD through manufactured court decisions between 2011 and 2013. The investigation took 4 months but the trial took 8 years. The judge will face no prison sentence, fine or prohibition from working in the future as a judge. This is because the statute of limitations has expired. Anti-Corruption Prosecutors have now secured convictions against 4 judges in the laundromat case - none of whom will face any justice due to the statute of limitations. I’ll try and provide a little analysis about this clear pattern in a footnote2.
Energy and Infrastructure
Here’s a roundup of the top stories of the week:
Transnistria will continue to receive gas via the “Hungarian scheme” through March. Vadim Krasnoselsky thanked Russia for continuing supplies past March 1. TiraspoltransGaz returned the 3 million cubic meters of gas borrowed from MoldovaGaz on schedule.
Transnistria announced an increase in energy prices for residents. The region’s “authorities” say that the price increase is required because of increased energy prices but that they will raise consumer prices only gradually. Andrei Curăraru of WatchDog explained to ZdG that the regional authorities are lying about this structure. They are receiving gas for free from Russia under the Hungarian scheme so price increases are not due to gas prices. Instead, they are related to the massive gap in the region’s budget due to the lost revenue from exporting electricity to Moldova. Critically, raised prices are not being paid to TiraspoltransGaz because this company would then have to use the money to repay the billions of dollars of their debts to MoldovaGaz. Some new company is being arranged for the energy price increases - making them essentially a tax rather than a utility payment.
Transnistrian “leader” Vadim Krasnoselski has sent an emergency bill to the Supreme Soviet. The bill calls for clawing back / redirecting any unspent funds from last year, at all levels of government, and redirecting them towards salary payments. Experts project that without heavy industry operating the region has lost more than 55% of their “government” budget. The bill highlights the increasing economic crisis in the region as they struggle to pay government employees and pensions.
The Ministry of Energy has proposed a bill which creates a mechanism for the Moldovan government to control who sells gas to Transnistria. Under the proposed mechanism, which was developed with support from EBRD and USAID’s MESA project3, the government determine the gas supplier and mandate that they create gas reserves. The proposal would require 15% gas reserves, enough to provide for households, schools and social centers in a crisis.
Parliament has passed a bill allowing for the installation of renewable energy equipment on agricultural land. Previously, one of the primary impediments to installing wind or solar projects was the need to re-zone the land. This new law will take effect on April 1st.
Economic Updates
Here’s a roundup of the top economic news of the week:
The National Bank (NBM) revised inflation projections. Inflation is expected to be 8.5% in Q1 2025 and to begin falling through the end of the year. They project an annual inflation rate of 7.3% - above the NBM target rate of 5% ±1.5%. Inflation projections are being driven by increased energy prices and other imported inflation.
Parliament passed the 7th debureaucratization package in the second reading. Like the 6 previous bills developed by the Ministry of Economy this package provides for measures to reduce paperwork, licensing and other bureaucratic impediments to business. This law also makes it mandatory for companies earning more than 500,000 lei annually to accept cashless payments by July 1, 2026. This could require the installation of card readers, but companies will also have the opportunity to use the MIA system.
The Chisinau airport has taken over operations of all catering establishments. As of February 28th Aerofood SRL has ceased operating the catering concessions, but the failures of 3 attempts to auctioning off the space has meant that no company was prepared to take over. The airport is directly operating the businesses in the short term and asks for patience in the transition. Recall that Aerofood SRL previously donated hundreds of thousands of lei to the Shor Party and was named by the Security and Information Service (SIS) as an entity closely associate with Shor. Back in April 2023 the state regained control of the airport from Shor’s company Avia Invest after 9.5 years.
This regards the construction of a planned Straseni-Gutinas 400 kV power line. This is planned to be the 3rd high voltage connection to Romania and was to be sponsored by USAID. Construction was planned to start towards the end of 2025 and finish in 2029. Long term this line is important for Moldova’s energy security, but short term the first 2 power lines which are being built with European funds are much more critical.
It’s important to note right off the bat that these crimes were charged within the statute of limitations. The cases have dragged on for so long and there are so few journalists covering complex judicial issues that no reporting has really explained what is going on here. After speaking on background with a few experts here’s one theory on what’s going on here. I’ll tell via an example:
Scenario 1: How it’s supposed to work
A man, call him Steve, robs a bank. He gets away and is later found by police 11 years later. The statute of limitation on this crime (in our hypothetical) is 10 years so police can’t charge Steve with bank robbery. That’s the statute of limitations.
Scenario 2: What if the trial is delayed?
A man, call him Steve, robs a bank. He is arrested trying to leave the lobby. Steve’s lawyer gums up the trial for 11 years but then he’s convicted. Steve goes to jail. The statute of limitations governs time to charge not time to convict.
Scenario 3: Ion robs a bank
A man, call him Ion, robs a bank in Chisinau. He’s arrested right away in the lobby. Ion’s lawyers gum of the trial for 15 years but he’s eventually convicted. Conveniently, Ion invested in a backup plan. Somewhere along the way, probably multiple times, he bribed the prosecutor to re-organize the charges. Maybe Ion combined his trial with his accomplices, maybe Ion separated himself from them. Maybe Ion convinced prosecutors to apply a harsher set of charges. Whatever he did, prosecutors dropped the old charges and leveled the new ones. At some point they do this at a time after the statute of limitations has expired and - surprise! Ion is still on trial but can’t face consequences.
It is not clear if MESA has officially been canceled but, like almost all USAID projects, it is safe to assume it has been. This work therefore would have been done before the late January stop work order.