Weekly Roundup: EU Summit, Vlah Raps, Transnistria is in Trouble
July 4, 2025
First EU-Moldova Bilateral Summit in Chisinau
Today Moldova is hosting the first bilateral summit with the European Union in what is being billed as “a landmark event” that “reaffirms the EU’s unwavering support for Moldova’s reforms and European integration aspirations.”
Top EU leaders, including European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will join President Maia Sandu, Prime Minister Dorin Recean and Speaker of Parliament Igor Grosu for the summit.
What Outcomes are Expected?
Moldova began formal negotiations with the EU on accession one year ago on June 25, 2024. So far this has entailed a “screening” process that assesses the candidate country’s national legislation for compatibility with the EU. The next step is to open formal negotiations on the 33 “chapters” of EU legislation that have been split into 6 clusters. Opening a cluster requires the approval of all EU member states.
The most concrete outcome from this summit would be the announcement of opening negotiations on one of these legislative clusters. At the same time, that isn’t really expected. All EU members states support moving forward with Moldova, but Hungary is blocking the opening of these negotiations with Ukraine. We’ve seen a delicate dance in past months as EU officials have floated separating Moldova and Ukraine’s accession process, while others have pulled back on such statements. Based on recent statements from the Moldovan government which have supported the countries moving together, it appears that no such break will be announced today.
“Same Path, Same Future”
The main outcome of today’s summit is likely to be symbolic - a major show of support from the EU ahead of September’s elections. The EU’s pre-summit communications have stressed that “sovereignty, security and resilience of the Republic of Moldova will be at the centre of the discussions.” Adopting a focus on “sovereignty” at a time when such a word has been weaponized against the EU in Romania and Moldova highlights the domestic political positioning of the event.
Ahead of the summit the EU announced an information campaign titled “Same Path, Same Future” which includes videos of journalists, business owners and other influential Moldovans speaking about the tangible benefits of Moldova’s relationship with the EU.
While the summit isn’t an explicit endorsement of PAS, it is a clear signal of support from the EU to Moldova’s pro-EU parties going into the September elections.
Here’s an example of one of the videos, you can see more about the campaign here.
195 “Athletes” Denied Entry to Moldova
The Moldovan Border Police announced that they denied entry to 19 people and prevented another 176 from boarding their flights bound for Chisinau. All were citizens of Russia and Belarus who were traveling to the so-called “European Kickboxing Championship” in Chisinau. As we wrote last week this event was organized by an internationally unrecognized Russian organization called the “World Kickboxing Federation” (WKF). The border police stated that the people who presented themselves as athletes were connected to “organized criminal groups, directly linked to law enforcement agencies in the Russian Federation.”
A video released by an advisor to Mayor Ion Ceban showed a man who claimed to be stuck at the border with minors who belong to a Romanian sports club. He claimed that they had been held for more than 3 hours and noted that Moldova was denying entry to “Citizens of Romania and the European Union.” ZdG later reported that the man, Marius Vasile Niţă, runs a youth sports club in Romania but has also had a political career, recently as a provocateur for George Simion.
Increased border checks, delays and the denial of entry to Russian and Belarusian “athletes” has caused a war of words between the government and Mayor Ceban’s city hall, which was a co-organizer of the event. The Mayor stated that “it is regrettable that children have begun to be called criminals." He went on to call the statements of the police and government “lies and disinformation” and said that they were making children out to be “Wagner mercenaries who were supposedly going to destabilize something.”
Interior Minister Daniella Misail-Nikitin confirmed that some of those who were denied entry were minors stating:
"As for the videos that appeared in the public space, we must distinguish between two cases. The first concerns teams of junior athletes who were eventually allowed to enter the country because they had a clearly defined purpose and evidence. But on the same day, there was another situation when the athletes could not provide clear evidence of where they came from, who was accompanying these children, and who was the organizer of the events they were supposed to participate in. For this reason, they were not allowed to enter Moldova,"
The Interior Ministry reiterated that the 195 people who were blocked from entering represented a “high risk to national security.”
The Ministry of Education called it “regrettable” that the city allowed Russian athletes to participate under their flag and not a neutral one. The Ministry’s official facebook page went on to state:
“This decision shows, once again, the hypocrisy of those who call themselves "pro-Europeans", but in fact, shows deference to an aggressive state and openness to criminal networks. It is, in fact, the essence of the alternative offered by the mayor's party: hypocrisy, duplicity and dangerous complicity.”
In the end, the event went forward with a diminished attendance. Still, around 700 athletes from 17 European countries attended and the youth championships operated mostly according to plan. Mayor Ceban attended the event claiming its organization in Chisinau was an “important achievement” (…) “[d]espite all the obstacles and pressure from the central authorities.”
Transnistria is in a Pickle
Victor Gushan has “donated” 35 million Transnistrian rubles to Tiraspol as “charitable aid.” Gushan is the owner of the company Sheriff, which monopolizes most sectors of the Transnistrian economy including supermarkets, gas stations, industrial concerns, telecoms, media, etc1. The mayor of Tiraspol stated that the funds, which amount to around €1.8 million euros, would be used to help solve the city’s economic problems. Recently Tiraspol was forced to transfer 75 million rubles from the city’s budget to the “national” budget of Transnistria. This donation highlights the increasingly dire financial crisis in the region… and it was meant to.
Experts differ on what exactly this signals, but agree that it is meant to be seen as a signal. Sheriff effectively controls all aspects of the Transnistrian “state” and therefore sets its own tax rates. Sheriff has also apparently made one-time “donations” of support before, but never in the name of Viktor Gushan personally. Gushan largely keeps to the shadows, running the region via proxies (in collaboration with the FSB) but not personally - he is reported to live in Germany.
Experts are divided on who this signal is meant for, but agree that rolling out Gushan’s name personally is meant to stress to either Chisinau, Moscow or both that the situation is getting extremely dire in the region. With Russia provoking the crisis by limiting energy supplies, and Chisinau showing a low level of engagement or interest, it is possible that Gushan and the region’s leaders are signaling that they can’t be ignored for long - and that they want to be paid.
Back in September 2023 I wrote about the slow burning crisis that the war in Ukraine sparked in Transnistria and why the situation would inevitably become untenable. You can read that article here:
Shor, Security & Hybrid War
Here’s a roundup of this week’s top stories related to Russia’s hybrid war against Moldova:
Russia’s FSB claims to have detained 2 Moldovan spies. They claim that the 2 men are agents of Moldova’s Security and Intelligence Service2 (SIS) and that they have "admitted their guilt." Moldova’s Foreign Ministry called the claims "unfounded and speculative" and noted that Russia is blocking consular access to the detained men. Experts interviewed by ZdG doubt that the men were SIS agents and speculated that these are just unfortunate men caught up in a Kremlin game. Moldova’s Foreign Ministry has reiterated travel warnings noting the risk of arbitrary detention in Russia.
Police warn citizens not to use the “Taito” app. They report that the Shor network is instructing people to load this new app for group communications purposes. Through it, people are asked to provide their personal data so that accounts can be opened in the Russian bank PSB in their name. Police are warning citizens not to give their personal data and reminding them that accepting money for their votes is a serious crime. Information about this app was uncovered during regional searches into illicit financing schemes by the Shor network.
Adrian Culai found guilty of illicit political party financing in a complex case. The prosecution’s case related to the scheme organized by Shor that’s been locally referred to as “Arina 007.” Ilan Shor had approached Arina Spataru and offered her financing and support to create a pro-European political party that would be secretly under his control. She turned to prosecutors and went undercover in a case resulting in the arrests, and later the escapes, of 2 MPs. Shor allegedly instructed Mihai Bagas and Adrian Culai to join Spataru in this project, with Adrian Culai becoming the Secretary of the ALDE party. He pled guilty to accepting $452,700 dollars from Shor for this purpose. Culai was given a 4 year prison sentence, which was then suspended pending good conduct in a 1 year parole period. He was also fined 200,000 lei and banned from working in accounting or finance for 7 years. Arina Spataru has loudly protested this prosecution, briefly going on hunger strike in May, claiming that Culai was a cooperating witness in the undercover investigation. Prosecutors have not publicly spelled out what conditions were agreed with Culai and other cooperating witnesses in the case.
Prosecutors demand 9 year prison sentence for Bashkan Gutsul. The trial itself just wrapped on July 3rd with Gutsul and her co-defendant Svetlana Popan having pled not guilty. Judges will now consider the evidence and arguments and have announced that the verdict will come on August 4th. Igor Dodon defended Gutsul calling the trial an attempt by Maia Sandu to “openly mock the mother of two small children.3” He went on to accuse the government of political oppression, while never addressing the underlying facts of the case - illicit financing of the Shor party. Igor Dodon is still on trial in a case that is slowly winding through the courts regarding his alleged acceptance of a bag full of money from Plahotniuc. Gutsul has commented publicly that the police have increased security outside of her apartment where she is under house arrest. She claims this is “harassment,” though it is likely designed to prevent her escaping prior to the verdict as has become common in Shor-linked cases.
Political Updates
Here’s a roundup of the top politics stories of the week:
"PAS, say goodbye." Irina Vlah, former Bashkan and current leader of the “Heart of Moldova” Party recorded a rap video urging voters to say goodby to PAS. If the goal was to get attention… it really worked. Her stilted and uncomfortable (for everyone) performance drew mostly ridicule online but became the talk of the town for a few days.
President Sandu has officially appointed Oleg Serebrian as ambassador to Turkey and Vladislav Kulminski as ambassador to the United States. Serebrian’s appointment leaves the position of Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration vacant, and the government has not yet announced a new candidate for the position. Given the expanding crisis in Transnistria, and the short time before elections, it will be interesting to watch who the government appoints to this important role.
Moldova marks 35 years since the “Declaration of Sovereignty.” On June 23, 1990 the Supreme Soviet of the Moldovan SSR declared the supremacy of their authority over that of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR. A formal declaration of independence came later, on August 27th, 1991, but this early declaration marked a major step on that journey. President Sandu, Prime Minister Recean, Speaker Grosu, and other PAS leaders led a 10,000 person sovereignty march to commemorate the anniversary. President Sandu addressed the crowd stating:
"Sovereignty is not a slogan, but daily work. Those who today seem to carve the word "sovereignty" on their foreheads are in fact fighting to once again subjugate Moldova to a foreign state, an empire that brings only destruction and disaster,"
Pro-Russian opposition hold a sovereignty day protest. The Socialists and Communist parties were joined by Vasilie Tarlev and “pro-European” Irina Vlah to hold a protest on the occasion of the anniversary. They framed Moldova’s “sovereignty” as being under threat from the EU and NATO, and Igor Dodon announced that following the elections the new Prime Minister’s first visit must be to Russia. Irina Vlah and Igor Dodon did not rule out a “left” wing coalition in the coming elections4.
The Central Election Commission (CEC) officially registered the Alternative Bloc for the September elections. The Bloc was the first to file their paperwork and be officially accepted.
Crime, Corruption and Justice Reform
Here’s a roundup of the top justice related stories of the week:
Scandal at the Moldovan Bar Association threatens justice reform efforts. Under the government’s justice reform effort, 3 “lay” (aka non-judge) members were added to the Superior Council of Magistracy (SCM), the top self-governing entity for judges. According to a letter signed by all 3 “lay” members and addressed to the Council of Bars and Law Societies of Europe (CCBE), their positions have come under attack. An “opposition politician,” later explained to be Victoria Furtuna of the Shor party, referred them to the Moldovan Bar Association alleging an “incompatibility.” Essentially, the complaint argued that the 3 non-judge members of the SCM should be barred from practicing law while they serve on that body - that they should be disbarred. This is contrary to the law that explicitly sought to bring practicing lawyers into the process while providing strict conflict of interest rules. This complaint was examined by the bar association in less than 3 days with no right of self defense, or even notification, given to any of the lawyers in question. They agreed with the complaint and began disciplinary action - something that was suspiciously celebrated online by Furtuna before it was publicly announced.
Veaceslav Platon’s extradition to Moldova to be decided in November. A London court set extradition hearings for 24-28 November. In the meantime Platon remains in custody and has been denied bail on account of his considerable financial means and arguments from prosecutors that he is a flight risk. Moldova’s prosecutors are confident that he will be extradited on charges related to the “Russian Laundromat” money laundering scheme that he is alleged to have organized. Platon’s lawyers claim that he is a political dissident seeking asylum in the UK.
The government’s appointment of PAS co-founder and former Minister of Justice Sergiu Litvinenco to the Constitutional Court (CC) causes criticism. Opposition parties claimed that PAS is packing the court, while NGOs and civil society groups accused the government of a lack of transparency. In an open letter, many of Moldova’s most respected civic groups called for a merit based open competition for the post. Under the law, 2 positions on the CC are appointed by the government, 2 by parliament and 2 by the SCM after an open competition. Government spokesmen responded that they are acting according to the law and that appointing the judge is their prerogative. Legal expert Alexander Bot of Watchdog agreed with this noting that the correct time to raise alarms about this procedure when CC reform was considered by parliament in 2020.
Economics and Infrastructure
Here’s a roundup of the top economics news of the week:
Moldova’s GDP continues to contract - falling 1.2% in Q1 2025. Economy Minister Doina Nistor explained that the largest impact came from a decline on goods export, driven partially by last year’s drought but also by a larger crisis in the European auto manufacturing sector. Orders for parts from Moldova’s factories in this sector are down as uncertainty grows. She explained:
"We are in a completely unstable situation not only in Moldova, but also in the whole world. Many uncertainties, armed conflicts, tariff wars - all this, of course, affects the economic situation in our country,"
Mortgage rates in the Prima Casa (first house) program rose on July 1st. Rates which formerly averaged 7% are now up to approximately 9% with the increase driven by inflation. Interest rates in the government subsidized program are recalculated every 6 months and experts point to forecasted falling inflation in the second part of the year as a potential signal that rates will fall then. Last year’s expansion of the Prima Casa program helped drive a spike in real estate prices which rose 35% in a year. Experts are now projecting a 5-10% reduction in housing prices by the end of the year driven by increased interest rates.
Parliament passes a new “freelancers law” in the first reading. The law provides for a simple, free, registration for people who are self employed. It proposes a simplified 15% tax, covering social contributions, income tax and medical insurance. Income under this program would be capped at 1.2 million lei / year, after which freelancers would presumably open Limited Liability Companies. I wrote about the importance of this reform, and broader efforts to rationalize the employment system, back in 2023 here:
If you’re interested in diving deeper into the Sheriff story, OSW has a good youtube explainer here.
In the past I’ve often called SIS the “Security and Information Service” which is a literal translation from Romanian (Serviciul de Informații și Securitate). It came to my attention that “Security and Intelligence Service” is a better translation into English and how the service refers to itself in English.
The Socialists and other “pro-family” parties often frame their female political allies in terms of how many children they have. This is a deliberate attempt to contrast them with President Maia Sandu who is unmarried.
Left and right have little meaning in Moldova - I covered this in a 2021 article prior to the last elections which I plan on updating this summer. Even Igor Dodon says that the Socialists are not recognizable as a left wing party as he has mused about renaming them the Party of Sovereigntists.
Insofar as there is a way to shorthand the parties, “right wing” means pro-EU while “left-wing” means authoritarian and pro-Moscow. So yeah, don’t get hung up on the labels here.