All last week I was attending the Moldova Security Forum and related events. The time I spent there combined with an avalanche of news to make this roundup a 2 part affair. Today we’re going to look at the most important new stories affecting Moldova’s national security. Tomorrow we’ll circle back with part 2 which will deal with other political updates.
Multiple Drones Violate Moldovan Airspace
On the night of November 18-19 a small, unarmed drone violated Moldovan airspace when it flew near the village of Saiți, Causeni, before re-entering Ukrainian airspace. It flew at low altitude, approximately 100 meters, and was therefore not picked up by Moldovan radars. On the same night a drone entered Romanian airspace and flew for around 8 km, where it also allegedly crossed into parts of Moldova and Ukraine.
Analysts were unclear whether these were 2 different drones or the same one. What is clear is that the drone passed close to the strategically vital Vulcănești power station. This station is the starting point of the Vulcănești-Chisinau high voltage line which is currently under construction (updates in part 2 on the progress). In response to the air incursion in Romania NATO scrambled 4 fighter jets, 2 Romanian and 2 German.
A much larger incursion took place on the night of November 24-25, where the Moldovan army’s airspace surveillance systems detected 6 drones entering the country’s airspace. This was in the context of a massive Russian bombardment of Ukraine that night.
The first drone was reportedly a Shahed which passed through Moldova to Romania around Vinogradovca - Vulcănești. 5 more entered Moldova’s airspace all across the North and East of the country in Dondușeni, Orhei, Bender, Vadul lui Vodă and Florești.
One drone crash landed on the roof of a house in Cuhurestii de Jos, Floresti district.
Police evacuated the area, which was an isolated house in a field used by agricultural workers. Following an inspection it was found to have no explosive payload. The authorities identified it as a Russian Gerbera (wikipedia) drone.
Gerbera drones are generally used as decoys. They are lightweight (18 kg) and indistinguishable from a Shahed or Geran-2 on radar. Gerbera drones can carry around 5-10 kg of TNT and they also have surveillance capabilities. Even the decoys often carry a camera to record Ukrainian air defense positions and report this intelligence back to inform future attacks.
On the same night another drone of unknown type crash landed in the yard of a man’s house in the town of Puiești in Vaslui County Romania. On the map below you can see that this is nowhere near Ukraine.
Reactions to the Drone Incursion
Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a “firm” condemnation to the Russian Ambassador Designate1 after the first drone incursion. Following the larger incursion the Ministry has again summoned the Russian Ambassador Designate to lodge an official complaint. The Russians denied that it was their drone and alleged that Moldova put it there intentionally as a false-flag operation.
Reactions from pro-Russian political parties and politicians in Moldova was swift. Igor Dodon called the drone attack staged saying:
“Have you seen how PAS is trying to cover up recent scandals? Today, they carefully placed a drone on the roof of a building”
This builds on a mass of narratives circulating on Kremlin-linked social media claiming that it is impossible that the drone landed so neatly on a roof like that2. Socialist MPs reposted AI images of the drone being placed on the roof from pro-Kremlin Telegram channels, while Mayor Ceban blamed the government for failing to communicate clearly about the situation3. MPs from Democracy at Home (PPDA) accused the government of “dramatizing” the situation.
Former Minister of Economy Dumitru Alaiba responded posting:
“We live on the border with the bloodiest war on the continent in the last 80 years. (…) I am concerned by the comments of those who hint at conspiracies and say it was staged. Some do so out of ignorance (not to say stupidity). Others do so because they follow and promote the agenda of Russian propaganda, which will continue to try to convince us that war is not war and that Russia is not the aggressor. Four years of war, and they still deny the obvious,”
Border Guards Stop a Truck Filled With Weapons
On November 20th at 1:30 am a truck that claimed to be carrying scrap metal entered the Leușeni-Albița border crossing between Moldova and Romania. It was flagged as suspicious by a Moldovan customs officer and sent for a scan by Romanian officers. The scan found that the truck was carrying weapons and ammunition. According to later reporting by the Moldovan Prosecutor General’s office this included:
18 items of “ammunition components”
8 items of “complete ammunition”
A surface to air launcher
A Geran 2 drone. “consisting of multiple parts disassembled after being shot down, showing shrapnel in the separation areas, with the engine detached on the drone – without any items of pyrotechnic interest.”
The Romanian authorities arrested the truck driver, who claims that he did not know what he was transporting. Moldovan authorities announced on November 22nd that they arrested 3 additional people in the case, the customs broker, the head of the transport company and the company administrator.
On November 26th the Prosecutor General’s office released the following statement about the source of the weapons:
“According to the investigation, these ammunitions were smuggled into the territory of the Republic of Moldova with the help of a carrier, who regularly traveled by freight truck from Ukraine. The munitions were taken over through several trips, which involved transporting two units of ammunition, taken from an unidentified warehouse in Ukraine, from unknown persons. They were brought in a camouflaged manner to the Republic of Moldova, from where they were soon taken over by several accomplices,”
According to the customs documents the truck was bound for Israel.
Facts First
The story was first broken by Romanian outlet Antena 3 CNN and pro-Russian politicians in Moldova, as well as Russian media outlets, managed to provide lots of commentary before the Moldovan government started providing details. This left a *very* muddled situation in the first days of this story. We’ll go through that, but first let’s focus on 2 key facts:
Leușeni-Albița is a joint customs point. This means that when you stop your car you deal with both Moldovan and Romanian officers at the same location. As such, the 2 sides work as a team and don’t overlap competencies. At this crossing it is the Romanians who have the truck scanner.
The weapons were Russian / Soviet. They were 18 portable anti-tank missiles (likely 9M133 Kornet / 9K111 Fagot), 8 anti-tank grenade launchers (likely RPG-26 / RPG-27), a man portable air defense system (MANPADS - likely a 9K38 Igla), and parts of a Geran 2 drone. “Likely” here means that this is the identification of weapons experts from the photos, not officially confirmed by the prosecutors office.
The truck belongs to a company called S.P.-SOLAR SISTEM SRL which deals in furniture and construction materials. Company founder Veaceslav Pîrvu has said that he knew nothing about the weapons and that a friend asked him to export cargo through his company since it had a license4.
Conspiracies Abound
Immediately a flurry of mis- and dis-information exploded across the internet. Many opposition figures fixated on the fact that the weapons were found with the Romanian truck scanner, alleging that the Moldovan side was either incompetent or corrupt when they let the truck through. By the time the new director of customs clarified that a Moldovan officer flagged the truck for the scan with the joint customs equipment, this narrative was widespread. Igor Dodon claimed that this was an indication that the West is dragging Moldova into war. Mayor Ceban claimed it was a case of clear incompetence and seemed to allege that it was somehow linked to drug smuggling (in which he implies the government would also be complicit).
Renato Usatii took the biggest leap by holding a press conference and announcing that the MANPADS system in the truck was an FIM-92 Stinger, provided by the United States to Ukraine. As “proof” he brought a picture of a stinger he printed off from the internet.
This then crossed over into Russian disinformation networks which produced 37 english language articles in 48 hours. Mainstream Russian outlets also focused on the story heavily - all quoting Usatii about the Stinger.
What’s Going on Here?
Watchdog did an analysis of the timeline and spread of these narratives - you can find it here in English. They state that the entire event has “all the hallmarks of a false flag operation.” Meaning, that their experts believe that the whole thing - from the truck to the weapons - was a setup for an information operation. Watchdog notes that 2 narratives emerged immediately from this story:
The Internal Narrative - The Moldovan government is corrupt and complicit in selling drugs and arms trafficking.
The External Narrative - Ukraine is corrupt and is selling American weapons. All aid should be stopped.
Usatii’s allegation that there was an American Stinger was key in how Russian outlets and disinformation botnets spread information about this story.
Watchdog claims that their analysis of the timing and spread of related disinformation suggests a pre-planned effort designed to spread the above narratives. Additionally, the internal story that showed serious weapons moving unchecked across the country is meant to spread fear and make Moldovans believe that their government cannot protect them from the war spilling over. They point to the fact that there is no logical reason why anyone would smuggle these weapons to Israel as further supporting the fact that these were not meant to get through customs.
Whether false flag, or just a convienent message for the Kremlin, this story has turned into a major scandal and source of claims and counterclaims.
Remaining Unknowns
The Prosecutor General’s announcement that the weapons were smuggled into Moldova from Ukraine “over several trips” raises serious questions about the Moldova-Ukraine border. It is likely that some of the people who have been arrested were either ignorant or acting as “disposable agents” for the Kremlin. At the same time, someone had to receive shipments of weapons in Moldova and combine them for “export to Israel” via Romania. We’ll come back with updates as the investigation continues.
The Moldova Security Forum
Last week the second annual Moldova Security Forum (MSF) was held in Chisinau, co-organized by the Institute for European Policy and Reform, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, the NATO Liaison Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
In an opening interview, President Sandu laid out the biggest security challenge facing Moldova right now. She stated:
“The most challenging task remains combating online disinformation, where Moldova has limited capabilities. Even if we tried to act independently, it could be perceived as undemocratic interference. We need the support of countries like the EU to develop policies that Moldova can implement against fake accounts and disinformation funded by Russia, which pose a serious threat to our democracy. In these matters, the democratic world must work with us to propose solutions. We can participate in discussions, but we cannot accomplish this alone,”
The forum brought together government representatives and experts from across Europe to discuss hybrid threats, civil emergency preparedness, cyber warfare and other increasingly relevant topics. Through speeches and panels a common narrative emerged from the event - Moldova is in need of security support, but it is also a security partner and provider. The country’s experience in dealing with these hybrid attacks is now being widely shared and discussed across Europe.
I attended the MSF and found that through the events and side conversations I walked away with much better insights into some of the key issues facing Moldova now. I’ll circle back to some of these discussions in future articles looking at specific topics such as Transnistria.
The “Ukraine Peace Plan”
Reacting to the “peace plan” that was (apparently) leaked by a Russian negotiator and then embraced by the Trump administration, President Sandu stated:
“Europe’s stability depends on Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and security being fully guaranteed. The unity and determination of all Ukraine’s partners are essential to ensure lasting peace,”
The entire situation with this “plan” is in such flux that it does little good to comment here. The 28 point plan has been replaced by a 24, 26 or 27 point plan from Europe, and a new 19 point plan from the US. It’s bewildering to follow and interested readers can find lots written about it online.
For anyone interested, I would like to recommend 3 interesting podcast discussions on the “plan” from 3 different British podcasts, namely:
The Rest is Politics: Could Trump’s Deal Finally Bring Peace to Ukraine? (youtube)
Behind the Lines with Arthur Snell: Ukraine Crisis: Will Trump Force Moscow’s Deal on Zelenskyy? (apple podcasts)
Ukraine The Latest: BREAKING: Zelensky ‘agrees’ to Trump’s amended peace deal – but is all as it seems? (youtube)
I’m recommending them because they each provide a European perspective on the chaos coming out of the White House. The hosts all grapple with the new “kremlinology” of trying to parse competing statements and reporting from the apparent internal factions led by Witkoff / Kushner, Marco Rubio and JD Vance - who all seem to be pursuing different agendas. All of this against the backdrop of Russian negotiators seeming to drive the narrative with careful leaks and statements and a demonstrated ability to shape outcomes from these groups.
All 3 episodes, but especially The Rest is Politics, make an increasingly loud case that all evidence points to the Trump administration actively supporting the Russian position and the need for Europe to start taking responsibility for its own future. The part of the “plan” where the US would act as a “neutral” mediator between NATO and Russia was a particular focus of discussion. The episode of Ukraine the Latest also discusses the drone incursions in Romania and Moldova.
I’ll also note here that at the Moldova Security Forum that absence of any US government representatives on panels was notable and impossible to imagine if this was held even 1 year ago.
At some future point I’ll write a stand alone article outlining what podcasts I follow for the war and geopolitics more generally for those interested.
Shor & Hybrid War Updates
Here’s a roundup of the top stories in Russia’s hybrid war against Moldova from the week:
Russia is launching a new propaganda TV channel in Kyrgyzstan. This was reported by Radio Azattyk (part of the RFE/RL network). The new network is backed, in part, by Ilan Shor’s Eurasia NGO, which was launched in April 2024. Eurasia has played a major role in hybrid attacks, laundering campaign money and voter bribery efforts in Moldova. Kyrgyz media expert Asel Sooronbaeva spoke of their work to ZdG saying:
“As far as I know, the Eurasia organization conducts media trainings for journalists and students. Its ties to Russia are also obvious. It is equally clear that it takes journalists to Russia and trains them there. At these trainings, lessons, and press tours, we also see employees of media outlets that have direct or indirect ties to our government,”
Orhei mayor Tatiana Cociu is still missing, but is not wanted. Anti-Corruption prosecutors confirmed to ZdG that there are no open cases against the mayor, who, as we wrote last week, is understood to have fled to Moscow and is unwilling to return to Moldova.
Romanian mercenary Horațiu Potra was deported from Dubai to Romania in handcuffs along with his son and grandson. All 3 men will stand trial on charges of trying to organize a coup d’état. We previously wrote about how they were fighting extradition with the help of Moldovan Alexandr Kalinin who was stripped of his citizenship in 2023 for his role supporting the Russian war effort.
Romania has been providing passports to Russian “oligarchs and criminals.” Romanian outlet G4Media reported on a major corruption scandal whereby 300 Russians illicitly obtained Romanian documents. Of those, at least 20 bribed border officials and took the names of Ukrainian soldiers who died in battle as their new identities. The other 280 never set foot in Romania but obtained official birth certificates through Romanian consulates. Apparently, when consulates issue these official documents they are not recorded in any central database, so it is difficult to know which are forgeries and which are real. G4Media reports that the Russians paid bribes ranging from €15,000 to €40,000 euros for their new documents and identities.
PAS MP Lilian Carp signals a new effort to dismantle the Shor network in Gagauzia. The MP, who is the chair of parliament’s National Security Committee, stated that the resignation of Dumitru Constantinov, head of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, and his recent attempts to distance himself from Shor, are no coincidence. Carp stated that the Shor network is now fearing accountability for their illegal actions and that they are monitoring the airport for those seeking to flee. About the upcoming elections in Gagauzia (assumed to be in March 2026) he stated:
“Since they had local electoral bodies, and they acted in violation of the law, but in the interests of certain groups, it was decided that everything will be controlled from Chisinau, including the electoral processes. This is being done to prevent vote-buying and election fraud. We are talking about certain electoral competitors. For example, if there are complaints about election fraud or vote-buying, and there is evidence, then the Central Electoral Commission in Chisinau will make the necessary decisions,”
In the linked article, Newsmaker noted that while Shor’s people warned that the arrest of Bashkan Gutsul would spark mass protests, in reality, protest action by the Shor network all but dissolved when she went to prison.
A Moment of Zen
Amidst a week of fairly dark news, I thought I’d share a funny experience I had at the Moldova Security Forum. I applaud the work of the organizers who put together an extremely interesting and well organized series of events. The funny moment for me came when it was time to take a family photo with all the participants.
The venue, MAIB Park, had a second level for photographers and videographers in the main event hall. For the photo, the organizers asked everyone sitting in the back rows who would not be seen from this vantage to move forward to the stage. Being the kind of person who sits well towards the back, I found ushers moving me and others towards the front for the picture. Many people had the good sense to simply dodge out, but me and around 4 others did as we were instructed and moved to the front. This resulted in me and the other 3 standing on stage for the photo alongside all the speakers and guests (who filled in after I got there and no one else followed the instructions). The result is an improbable photo where I’m side by side with the Foreign Minister and appearing far more important than I really am. It’s all the more notable as I’m one of the only people anywhere in the hall without a sport coat.
Sometime I really enjoy the odd little “Forrest Gump” moments that life seems to throw my way.
President Sandu has thus far refused to receive his official credentials, leaving him an “Ambassador Designate”
Anyone with any experience with an asbestos roof knows they are tough. If asphalt shingle is typically rated for 25 years, asbestos tiles are rated for more than 60.
Government: a Russian drone crashed into a house. Online Bot: [many conspiracy theories]. Mayor Ceban: it’s the government’s fault that I don’t know what to believe. Not Mayor Ceban: anything about Russia, the war, or weapons or war landing on a shepherd’s roof.
A typical setup for smuggling