Weekly Roundup: A Presidential Inauguration, Holidays and Energy Crisis Updates

December 27, 2024

Welcome back to Moldova Matters! I want to wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays for all those who celebrate. Normally this time of year has a last big burst of news before the country more or less slumbers through January. This year with the uncertainty over Transnistria and looming energy crisis it is more likely that things will get busier in January. Between being sick this last week, greeting the holidays and having a short vacation planned things are likely to get a bit messy for me schedule wise. After this roundup I’m planning to primarily focus on critical stories about the energy crisis through about the middle of January when we will resume something of a normal schedule. In there I also have the traditional Year in Review and Year Ahead articles planned… but we’re going to have to see just what happens on January 1st.

Thank you as always for reading Moldova Matters. Enjoy this time of year with family or however you choose to spend the last days of 2024. All the best,

David Smith

President Sandu is Inaugurated for a 2nd Term

On December 24th Maia Sandu was inaugurated as the first person to be popularly elected to a second term as Moldova’s president. In her speech at the event she thanked voters for their trust and spoke both of challenges past and an optimist future.

Four years ago, we promised good times. It was a sincere promise. But times have turned out to be difficult, to the point of regret.

Moldova found itself in the midst of regional and global crises. After the pandemic, there was the price increase, the energy crisis, the gas blackmail, and now - the blackmail with darkness.

But all these crises pale in comparison to the brutal war on our border. A war that has driven millions from their homes, devastated the economy, and scarred us as people - we have witnessed tragedies and atrocities we never thought possible in our time.

In these difficult circumstances, we stood tall, we remained united, and we moved forward resolutely. We managed to preserve the peace and defend our democracy in the face of external threats.

I thank you all from the bottom of my heart for your patriotism, courage and unity, for your humanity and generosity. We can be proud that, despite the difficulties, we managed to be on the good side of history!

My message today is an optimistic one.

Moldova is not only a small country with a big heart, but also an inspiration to others in uncertain times. Moldova stands in the wind, but does not fly like a leaf, but resists with determination, waiting for the plague to pass. But today I do not want to talk to you about waiting, because your patience is already tested.

The president went on to pledge that she would enter her new term with increased energy and determination but also called voters to a “great national mobilization, because if we don't save ourselves, no one will save us.”

President Sandu is sworn in for a second term. Photo source presedinte.md

Energy Crisis Looms

As the new year approaches uncertainty remains about what will happen on January 1st after Ukraine’s contract to transit Russian natural gas to Europe ends. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico made a surprise visit to Moscow this week to meet with Putin in the apparent hope of finding a way to keep the Russian gas flowing. Russia has repeatedly called on Europe to pressure Ukraine to allow continued transit while Kyiv has been clear that this will not happen. The Kremlin’s refusal to find a workaround to provide gas to Transnistria may simply serve their greater goal of pressuring Europe, or be directly targeted at destabilizing Moldova - most likely it is both. In any case, both the Moldovan government and the Transnistrian “authorities” are clearly operating on the assumption that the gas stops at midnight on December 31st.

To this end preparations and policies continue to be announced by Moldova’s emergency commission and the separatist “authorities.” Here’s a roundup of the top energy related news of the past week:

• Russia conducted a massive Christmas day bombardment of Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Ukrainian authorities report that at least one cruise missile transited Moldovan and Romanian airspace for 140 km before turning back into Ukraine to hit a target. Moldovan border police report spotting this missile but the Army says that they did not detect any overflight. This attack had no impact on Moldova’s energy system but when MGRES shuts down on January 1st attacks like this will have a higher probability of rippling through the Moldovan network and causing disruptions.

• Russian sources are spreading the narrative that Moldova is preparing to seize the MGRES power plant by force. The Presidential administration called on citizens to be wary of fake news and disinformation and reiterated Moldova’s position that the country only seeks a peaceful resolution to the conflict with Transnistria.

• The Ministry of Energy has restricted renewable energy exports during the crisis. Energocom will be required to purchase locally produced energy as a priority and local producers will be prevented from exporting until local needs are met.

• Prime Minister Recean announced the creation of a “Crisis Cell” in the government that started work from December 26th and will coordinate the national response. The cell will coordinate not just energy emergencies but questions of border crossings and assure that “plans to destabilize our country will not succeed.” The Prime Minister also announced upcoming plans for energy subsidies for business and called on factories to switch production to night hours if possible. The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection announced that with higher prices for electricity in January compensation amounts have been increased such that most consumers will not pay more than last year.

• The Transnistrian “authorities” have announced policies around the energy deficit. The following are the key points:

  • The MGRES power plant will shift to coal and will be able to provide around 50 days of power to the Transnistrian region.

  • Schools will shift to online learning.

  • Residents will be allowed to collect wood from fallen trees without permits.

  • Kindergartens will only accept children if both of their parents work.

  • All scheduled (non-emergency) medical appointments were canceled starting December 23rd.

  • 4 regional hospitals cannot be run around the clock without gas. As such patients will be consolidated in other hospitals.

  • Central heating and hot water will end immediately with the gas cutoff.

  • The remaining pressure in gas pipelines will be prioritized for apartment blocks and will last 19-20 days in the south, 5-10 days in the north. Houses will be cut off on January 1st.

  • Any residents found trying to use propane tanks in apartments will have them confiscated and criminal cases opened.

• Moldova’s central region power company Premier Energy announced a planed "program of power disconnections" in cases of a power deficit. Customers will be notified by email of schedule changes and are encouraged to make sure that the company has an email on file for them. The basic plan envisions rolling blackouts in three 8 hour windows, midnight to 8 am, 8 am to 4 pm, 4 pm to midnight. With a smaller energy deficit households would lose power for one 8 hour window per day. If the deficit increases this reduces to the point where households would have only 8 hours of power per day. The company and the government stress that consumers must ration power in peak periods to prevent the institution of rolling blackouts.

• Zona de Securitate and Watchdog conducted a poll of Transnistrian residents that found 50% of people were supportive of reintegration. The poll showed a growing openness to the change based on the regional context and many respondents rejected the status quo as their primary option. Residents were worried about the security situation as well as perceptions of declining quality of life and of being unable to keep up with Moldova economically. Residents also were much more likely to buy into Russian narratives around the war, the “decadence” of the west and various disinformation narratives about the EU.

Political News

Here’s a roundup of the other top political stories of the past week+

• President Sandu released messages congratulating those celebrating New Christmas on December 25th and the start of Hanukkah. While most Moldovans still celebrate Christmas on January 6th in the old style “new” Christmas is gaining in popularity as the Romanian Orthodox Church gains in prominence as compared to the Russian Church.

• Parliament delayed the implementation of the declaration of beneficial owners law for another year. Last week I wrote about how this well intentioned reform had created a mess due to poor implementation and a holiday deadline. Now companies will have another 12 months to comply.

• On December 12th parliament held a marathon 10 hour hearing on election integrity. During the hearings reports were heard from numerous government agencies detailing what went wrong in the last elections and what changes needed to be made going forward. The top 6 challenges identified were: illicit financing and voter corruption; externally funded disinformation and hybrid information warfare; “fake” political parties taking the place of the outlawed Shor party; involvement of the church and clergy; illegal collection of voters personal data; and electoral materials inciting hatred being distributed by organizations not officially involved in the elections. Recommendations were made regarding tightening campaign finance rules, increasing the traceability of donations from companies, prioritization of court cases regarding electoral corruption, etc. The parliamentary hearing continued into the early hours of the morning as the opposition brought a no-confidence vote against the Prime Minister which failed.

• On December 19th parliament adopted a bill in the first reading tightening penalties for electoral corruption. Under the new rules voter bribery could be prosecuted on the basis of a quid-pro-quo agreement even in the absence of evidence of money or goods changing hands.¹ It proposed an increase in fines and jail terms of 3-7 years² for election fraud in the interests of a “criminal organization.” The bill provided for expediting various court procedures by removing loopholes used by defendants for long delays. It also proposed banning all media broadcasting and rebroadcasting from “states waging illegal and unjustified aggressive wars against other states…” (aka Russia). This could potentially ban Russian movies and TV shows in the Moldovan market. NGO Promo-Lex criticized the passage of this bill under an expedited procedure and advocated for a normal comment period and consultations before moving forward.

• President Sandu congratulated residents of Gagauzia on the 30th anniversary of the region’s autonomous status. The President and various senior political leaders met with Gagauzian residents and civic leaders for an event celebrating the occasion. In her statement the President stressed that the country is united in spite of differences saying: "As in any family, we may have misunderstandings. But the most important thing is that Moldovans consider Gagauz people part of their family, just as Gagauz people consider Moldovans part of their family. This is the true foundation of our relations. Regardless of political and geopolitical games, we are one whole, and Moldova is our home."

• The Gagauzian leadership took a different tone in their celebrations. Speakers denied the existence of Russian “hybrid” attacks against Moldova, said that the central authorities are focused on destroying Gagauzia and complained that Russian TV stations were blocked. Bashkan Gutsul stated that:

  "I would like to add that just as the central authorities do not recognize us as a legitimate authority, we also do not recognize this president. Because the presidential elections were falsified. A worthy candidate should have won, who would now be sitting with us and congratulating us on the holiday,"

Crime, Corruption and Shor

Here’s a roundup of the top stories in justice in the past week:

• The Supreme Court of Justice upheld Ilan Shor’s conviction in the Theft of the Billion. The ruling caps a 10 year long trial and appeals process and upheld his sentence of 15 years in prison.³

• Mass searches were conducted at city hall on December 16th which Mayor Ceban called political prosecutions. Head of the city Department of Urban Mobility, Vitalie Mihalache, and his deputy were arrested. Prosecutors allege that they took kickbacks of 10-15% for awarding contracts for sidewalk construction in the city. These are among 20 cases being investigated and searches expanded to the homes of employees and the seizures of devices. Mayor Ceban refused to tell reporters whether or not these men would be suspended from their jobs while in jail only saying that he was conducting his own internal investigation.

• Moldova experiences the largest leak of private medical data in the country’s history. Alfa diagnostica, the largest private lab in Moldova, had been posting test results publicly on their website for an undetermined amount of time. Newsmaker was alerted by a patient who realized that their results’ hyperlink had no security and journalists were able to download the entire databse of alergy tests, gynecological tests, pregnancy results, children’s medical tests etc - along with names, ID numbers, addresses, etc - in 10 minutes. According to current law the company could face *massive* fines for each and every document leaked. Prosecutors have made no announcements about opening an investigation at this time.

• An investigation by Bloomberg reported that former Moldovan Minister of Justice and Director of SIS, Vitalie Pirlog, was the primary architect of the Interpol corruption scheme. The case in question came to light in June when anti-corruption prosecutors raided the Moldova Interpol office as part of an investigation jointly conducted with French authorities. Bloomberg reports that while working at Interpol headquarters Vitalie Pirlog instituted a rule by which a red notice (international arrest warrant) could be revoked if a person recently received asylum. He and his associates then marketed this opportunity and leveraged corrupt connections in Moldova to sell asylum claims to those on the wanted list - netting millions of dollars in bribes in the process. The scheme was operational from mid 2022 until early 2023 when Interpol opened an investigation. It resulted in 26 people being removed from the wanted list of whom around half were Chinese and nearly all were wanted for financial crimes.

1. This is likely targeting the voters who were bribed via bank apps. Due to the complexities of getting the money from Transnistria and the internal back-biting and theft amongst Shor activists it is likely hard to track what final amount of cash arrived in a person’s hands. The police are able to prove more easily (in this situation) that someone promised something and received confirmation that they would be paid - whether or not they finally were.

2. This exceeds the standard sentences for production of CSAM, rape or manslaughter in Moldova.

3. On of Shor’s lawyers in this last, loosing, appeal was UK based Shaul Brazil who we have previously written about in October’s investigation into influence campaigns in the west.