Transnistria's Last "Election?"
Why the last remaining Supreme Soviet may be running out of time
On Sunday, November 30th, the Transnistrian region1 held “elections.” This stage managed process saw all 33 seats of the Supreme Soviet (their rubber stamp legislature), 469 municipal council seats and 76 mayors “elected.” As expected the Renewal party, fully subordinated to the Sheriff corporation, swept all before them.
Even as stage-managed elections go this was a dull affair. Of the 33 seats in the Supreme Soviet, 21 of them were uncontested. The rest of these single member districts had regime-approved opposition candidates who dutifully lost badly. Officially, there was record low turnout in the elections at only 26.01%. This didn’t matter of course because there is no threshold under which an election is considered invalid.
Ironically, Transnistrian elections are well known for inflated turnout. Public sector employees and employees of the Sheriff corporation are turned out en masse. Is the low turnout a sign of a lack of enthusiasm? No.
The reason that there is no electoral threshold is that it eliminates the need to have the uncomfortable conversation about what the actual population of the region is. Voter turnout was over 102,000 persons. The 26% turnout figure is based on the last census count of 475,000 residents… in 2015. Even if that was accurate a decade ago, most current estimates land closer to 250,000.
These “elections” were clearly no such thing. There was no free press and no real opposition parties. Zona de Securitate noted that the last real attempt at an opposition, Oleg Khorzhan’s Transnistrian Communist Party, is now defunct. Oleg Khorzhan was arrested, imprisoned for 4 years, released and then murdered in summer 2023.
So why even write about it? Much of the Moldovan press barely bothered. My reason for focusing on Transnistria today is simple - these might very well be the very last “elections” to the very last Supreme Soviet. There is real reason to believe that Transnistria will not exist in its current form when this term of office ends in 2030.
On October 30th, Moldovan journalist Evgeny Cheban wrote a piece for Carnegie that started with this paragraph:
“The Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria is disintegrating, no longer able to survive in the same way that it has for decades. Economic and political change in the region is inevitable. Ultimately, there are two possible paths: the withdrawal of Russian troops and reintegration with Moldova, and the transformation into a Russian military outpost with no economy and few inhabitants. The path that Transnistria ends up taking depends not only on Tiraspol and Moscow, but also on Chișinău.”
Today we’re going to check in with Transnistria ahead of what is sure to be another difficult winter in the region. In this article we’ll…
Look at recent reports showing the region’s economy and the quality of life for its inhabitants are in a nosedive.
Review how the power dynamics between Chisinau and Tiraspol have changed in recent years.
Dive into Transnistria’s political clans and look at the history of Sheriff and its shadowy owner.
Scrutinize arguments about what motivates these clans and how Moldova could wedge their interests.
Look at the tough choices Moldova will face and potential outcomes.