Quick Hit: Preparations for Violent Demonstrations, New Polls and Plaha is Back
September 26, 2025
Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the following:
“…we have already lost Georgia in Europe. Human rights and the European character of the state system are constantly declining there, and Georgia is dependent on Russia. For many, many years, Belarus has also been moving towards dependence on Russia. Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova as well. It is important to remember how the world once ignored the need to help Georgia after Russia’s attack. Moldova must not be lost.”
He called attention to the importance of helping Moldova now in the broader context of how it is “cheaper” to invest in Ukraine’s struggle now, than it is to relocate kindergartens in Europe to bomb shelters later.
Also highlighting the stakes in this election was the European Commission spokesperson Anitta Hipper who noted this week that these attacks are not like past election interference saying:
”This is not the first time that Russia has resorted to classic tactics of manipulation and disinformation, but today it is going much further. Moscow is deeply interfering in the electoral process,”
Even “deeply interfering” is an objectively light statement given recent developments. Today the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) produced a new report (in English) that Russian’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, is preparing the ground for violent confrontations in Moldova. They call attention to media manipulations that are laying the groundwork for violent protests aimed at overthrowing President Sandu - something ISW rates as a “possible high-impact event of indeterminate probability.”
Right now my best description for how things are feeling in Moldova is “tense.” Dirty campaign tactics are not new, but these multi-layered hybrid attacks are unprecedented. Here is a roundup of the main stories from the last 3 days since our last Weekly Roundup.
Mass Arrests Targeting Serbia Network
On September 22nd a massive operation was conducted jointly by the police, anti-corruption police (CNA), police special forces (Fulger), and Security and Intelligence Service (SIS). Officers raided 250 locations around the country. We now know that 74 people were detained and that the raids targeted a network preparing mass violent unrest around the elections.
Police stated that this investigation began back in July when the Shor network brought a large number of people to Serbia under the guise of a religious pilgrimage. There they met Russian military instructors, including one identified military intelligence (GRU) officer named Andrei Pavlov Vladimirovich and another who goes by the name “Bes.” Police have identified 111 people who attended these trainings where they trained with firearms, armed drones and learned tactics for violently destabilizing street protests. The operation was managed and run by the Russian intelligence services with facilitation support from the Shor network. Of the 111 people identified, 74 were detained and 12 have been arrested. Police note that others are cooperating and all are being investigated - they face 4-8 years in prison.
Searches found weapons, ammunition, phones, sim cards, tents and camping equipment, passports and cash. At least some of the locations searched were regional offices of the Socialist Party.
Police released a compilation video showing some of the arrests and evidence from the raids. Here are some screenshots from the video:
Hybrid War Updates
Here’s a roundup of the other top stories related to Russia’s hybrid war against Moldovan democracy from the last 3 days:
Police warn of election day cyberattacks. Chief of the National Police, Viorel Cernăuțeanu, stated that a major cyber attack compromised thousands of household internet routers on the morning of Thursday September 25th. The authorities expect these routers to be used in a coordinated cyber attack on the Central Election Commission (CEC) and other state infrastructure on election day. Cybersecurity experts are working now on the problem. For a technical explanation of how this works see this footnote1.
The CEC has announced that 5 polling stations for Transnistria residents will be relocated deeper within Moldovan controlled territory. They explained the decision as follows:
“The decision was made following a request from the General Police Inspectorate, which highlighted serious risks in the Security Zone, including possible reports of explosive devices and provocations on election day. Under these conditions, the actions of specialized units are hampered, as their movement is only possible with permission from the Joint Control Commission, which is virtually impossible to obtain on short notice. Furthermore, any suspension of the electoral process on election day cannot exceed two hours,”
Prime Minister Recean gave a speech calling on all parties to reject election interference. He referenced raids targeting the network from Serbia, Russia’s spending of “hundreds of millions of euros on buying votes” and disinformation campaigns including how “In the last two months alone, TikTok has deleted over 100,000 fake accounts and over 250,000 spam accounts—all of which were part of an information attack on Moldova.” He specifically mentioned intelligence that “carousel voting” is being organized (see footnote2). The Prime Minister called on all parties to reject these attacks. Only Mayor Ceban responded saying that he always condemns interference “no matter where it comes from3.”
Police raid a printing house finding 200 pre-stamped ballots for the Alternative Bloc. Police state that these ballots could be preparations for a carousel voting scheme. Mayor Ceban says that they are official campaign literature and are clearly stamped “model.” He says that they are printed so that they can show voters where to put the stamp. The CEC says that the printing house was the one to notify them and that printing exact copies of ballots, pre-stamped, is not normal election material and is prohibited by law.
Romanian police connect Shor candidate Victoria Furtună to a criminal case in Iasi. Police were conducting raids linked to organized crime monetizing fictional home registrations. Suspects from the Corduneanu criminal clan registered more than 10,000 Moldovans as living in a single apartment. They collected payment for the registration and the Moldovans used the address to obtain Romanian documents. Victoria Furtună was among the people listed in the apartment. The Corduneanu mafia clan were strong supporters of Calin Georgescu and far right political groups in Romania. Reporting earlier in the week suggested that Romania may strip Furtună of her citizenship.
The Police are clear - don’t take a bribe for your vote. Right now, when I read the CNN website in Moldova I am more likely to see an advertisement from the Moldovan police than from any candidates. The ads links to facebook posts by the police explaining the risks of taking bribes for your vote. The same text also appears now on all police cars and in an ad campaign around Moldova. Official text messages are also going out with the message. Here’s an example text:
Context.ro reports on a new campaign by the Matryoshka botnet. The report shows concrete examples of one operation in the vast disinformation campaign against Moldova. It features AI videos and false assertions and quotes, primarily designed to denigrate Maia Sandu and PAS. Charlie Kirk is shown using Maia Sandu as an example of how there are no successful examples of women leaders. The Romanian Foreign Minister is shown claiming that child sexual abuse in Moldova has skyrocketed. Moldova is re-cast as a mass exporter of weapons and drugs into Europe. Most videos use the branding and logos of real media outlets to make them seem like clips of real news. They are then spread through a botnet of fake accounts and amplified through the algorithms of the platforms they are operating on. Matryoshka is only one Kremlin based malign player in this space (of many).
Unfortunately, this only scratches the surface on this topic. Every day there are numerous reports of police raids and searches. In one officers tracked 9 million lei in transfers, another they found 800,000 lei in a bag. A raid discovered an underground printing house producing materials designed to provoke inter-religious violence. In short - the police, Fulger, SIS and prosecutors are working overtime right now.
Irina Vlah and “Heart of Moldova” are Out of the Elections
Thursday the Chisinau Court of Appeals suspended the activity of the Heart of Moldova political party for 12 months. This followed a failed attempt by the party to appeal to the Constitutional Court (which rejected the case). The decision follows a request by the Ministry of Justice to suspend the party on the basis of suspicions of illicit financing. Recall, large scale police raids on the Shor financing network targeted Heart of Moldova offices in recent weeks.
Party leader Irina Vlah had tried to head off this situation by expelling numerous party members this week “whose actions contradicted the principles of transparent and legal financing.”
Responding to the news Irina Vlah blamed the PAS government saying:
“This is just part of a larger plan by the ruling authorities to silence our party. Over the past four weeks, there hasn’t been a single day without vile, dirty, and politically motivated attacks against the Heart of Moldova party. If the authorities think they’ve silenced us with this, they’re gravely mistaken. The fight continues, and the truth will come out,”
TV8 released a report on September 25th showing how numerous Shor network supporters, associates and former candidates quietly moved into Heart of Moldova earlier this year. They show how many of these figures were already under police investigation for bribery and other crimes.
What Happens Now?
No one knows. There is no precedent for excluding one party from a political bloc a few days before an election. The Central Election Commission (CEC) and the courts will have to figure out how to implement this decision. 25 candidates on the list of the Patriotic Bloc are from Heart of Moldova including 2 in the top 10. It remains unclear what happens to them and what happens to the “Patriotic Electoral Bloc of Socialists, Communists, Heart and Future of Moldova.”
Igor Dodon stated unequivocally that Vlah and her party “remain on our team.” He previously stated that they would launch protests if her party was excluded.
A bad day gets worse…
Irina Vlah is did not have a good day on Thursday. Shortly after the news about her party being banned, the Polish Government announced that she was banned from entering the country for 5 years. Their Ministry of Foreign Affairs wrote:
“ Irina Vlah, a politician from the Republic of Moldova who is assisting the Russian Federation in its intervention in the preparations for the parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova, will be banned from entering the territory of the Republic of Poland,”
Poland follows bans from Canada (August 28) and Lithuania (September 16). Shortly after this news broke Estonia and Latvia also announced that she was banned from entering their respective countries. Latvia simply named her as an “undesirable person,” but Estonia sanctioned her as an individual “who undermines the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states and incites separatism.” She was sanctioned alongside President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik.
New Polls & Election Updates
On Thursday the Barometer of Public Opinion poll was published. It was conduced by CBS research and commissioned by the Institute of Public Policy. Here are the results of the question they asked about parliamentary elections:
Their poll shows 4 parties making it into parliament.
PAS - 28.6% (55% of decided voters)
Patriotic Bloc - 13.9% (275 of decided voters)
Out Party / Renato Usatii - 5.1% (10% of decided voters)
Alternative Bloc - 4.2% (8% of decided voters)
Simple math such as excluding voters who say they don’t know (27.8%), won’t vote (5.4%) or refuse to respond (9.1%) used to be a fairly straightforward assumption. Now it is not. As I’ve written before, there are major issues with polling right now - even from reputable firms like this. More than 42% of those polled did not respond with a clear answer, and many theorize that some of Shor’s bribed voters are in there waiting for instructions. So while this poll is consistent with past quality polls, don’t read too much into it.
No Exit Polls on Sunday
In other polling news, there will be no exit polls this Sunday. The last exit poll in Moldova was conducted in the 2020 presidential elections, and since then most firms have abandoned the practice due to the high cost. This year only iData applied to the CEC for permission to conduct a poll but they were rejected. CEC Deputy Chairman Pavel Postica cited “reasonable suspicions” about the company’s funding sources in his decision4.
Other Election Updates
Here’s a roundup of some other election related stories of the last 3 days:
Romanian President Nicușor Dan called Moldovans to the polls. He didn’t endorse any political party, but called the vote a “decisive moment” and stated that “Your future, the future of your families, and the future of Bessarabia depend on your vote.”
The “Blocul Unirea Națiunii” (BUN) bloc has withdrawn from the elections and called on their supporters to back PAS. They called on all of their voters5 to prevent the return of pro-Russian forces.
Vladimir Plahotniuc (yes, we’re getting to him shortly), posted on his facebook about the elections. He first lamented that there was no time to gather his old parties before the elections6, and then stated that the top priority is that “No direct or indirect vote should reach PAS.” He then called on people to vote for any other party with a chance of getting into parliament. Vladimir Cebotari, leader of Plaha’s PDMM party that was excluded from the elections made it more explicit saying:
“However, we have colleagues who are in the “Alternativa” Bloc and the “Partidul Nostru” formation. I urge you to give them your vote.”
Alternative didn’t comment on the statement, Usatii denied it saying “They rented a part of the PDM to Chicu and Ceban, not to me.”
Plaha is Back, in Cuffs
On Thursday September 25th at 9:48 am Vladimir Plahotnuic exited a plane on the Chisinau tarmac and set foot back in Moldova for the first time in 6 years. He did so handcuffed and surrounded by police. Not long after he was brought out of the airport through the arrivals doors and hustled past the mob of journalists to be ushered into a waiting van. Again, he was flanked on all sides by Fulger7 and other police officers.
He will be held in solitary confinement in Prison 138.
Commenting on his arrival, President Sandu reflected on the protest movements that began in 2017 writing:
“If you don’t give up when it’s hard and keep fighting - the whole society keeps fighting - even criminals who seemed invincible come to justice,”
Reactions to his return on social media were varied. Many, including many PAS candidates, called it a victory for justice and recalled the long road that finally brought Plahotniuc to prison. Others cautioned against premature celebration. Plaha’s lawyers will begin making the case for his pre-trial release in 30 days. If the court rejects it, they will request release again monthly and ultimately have to let him out if the trials are still ongoing after 1 year of pre-trial detention (including the last 2 months in Greece). Naturally, at his charging hearing this morning a bomb threat against the courthouse caused its evacuation and the delay of the hearing until another day. We can expect any and all delay tactics to be used going forward.
This isn’t the end of a story - it is the beginning of the greatest challenge ever faced by Moldova’s fragile justice system.
For now though, he’s in jail and is unlikely to have anything else to say about Sunday’s election. We’ll circle back to Plaha later when there are more details.
Why Now?
So many people have asked me this in the last few days that I feel the need to share my 2 cents. To be clear, this is not based on any special knowledge, just my read of the situation. Usually the question goes something like this “why would the government bring Plahotniuc back now? right before the elections?” often, especially from Moldovans, I’ll hear “couldn’t they have just left him in Greece for a while? isn’t there some other country that can take him?”
Personally, I think that this is ascribing political motives to what is essentially a law enforcement situation. By all indications Plaha got arrested because he got sloppy or unlucky - not because he planned it. Once in the system he made 2 moves - the choice not to fight extradition and the move to reactivate his political network ahead of the elections. I consider them both tactical responses not part of some big plan - likely he had a plan on the shelf for what to do if he got caught. Because the elections were so close, and Moldovan politics has changed fundamentally since he left9, his political project fizzle out (at least for now).
I think that most Moldovans in leadership assumed he would fight extradition. Since he didn’t, the choice became pretty stark - he had to come back or be let go. Greece can’t just hold a foreign citizen for fun. In my opinion, this is just the hand of cards that everyone was dealt.
They are worried about a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack - basically when huge numbers of computers try and access a website or service at the same time causing it to crash. Police allege that Russian state hackers will target Moldova’s cyber infrastructure on election day with the intent of crashing it. In Moldova, voters are registered electronically at the polling places - this shows real time turnout and prevents people from voting multiple times. Attacks against the CEC infrastructure could cause delays and a certain amount of chaos. They are targeting household routers because it will be extremely hard for Moldova’s cyber defenders to know which houses have people who are interested in watching the realtime turnout and which are part of an attack. If all the traffic came from Russia for instance - you could just block / filter it out.
“Carousel voting” is a tactic for assuring that people you pay to vote actually do as you tell them in the privacy of their polling station. Taking pictures of the ballot is illegal (and monitored) so carousel voting is a workaround. It works like this - the first person on “team Shor” enters the voting booth with a fake ballot, pre-stamped for their candidate, in their pocket. They stamp the real ballot, but put it in their pocket and drop the fake one in the box. Person 1 then leaves the polling station and passes the pre-stamped real ballot to person 2 on “team Shor” who goes in and does the same thing - votes with the one in their pocket, and stamps / takes with them the ballot they were given when they entered the voting booth. This way, the coordinator outside can direct a never ending stream of people into the voting booth and certify exactly who they vote for.
Cause why single Russia out? everyone is terrible. Right?
Moldova Matters has chosen not to report on iData’s increasingly outlier polls this election. They have consistently shown the Patriotic Bloc ahead of PAS and other odd outcomes. The decision not to report on iData and some other companies is not based on their results however, but other factors that I detail in this article:
0.0% of the electorate in the above poll.
A funny statement, because they weren’t really “doing politics” without him. Does he mean that it’s too bad he wasn’t arrested a little bit earlier? Too bad that his incentive to pump money back into the political corpses of his parties came too late? The whole thing is somewhat saying the quiet part out loud.
SWAT
Fun aside - Prison 13 was once called the Chisinau Castle. It was always a prison, but had a Victorian castle like vibe to it before WW2. Only the central tower remains and its not visible from outside of the current structure. You can see an old photo of the castle here, and read about the history here.
In those days, any attempts by the CEC to remove a party from the elections, no matter how justified, would run into stern, patronizing European criticism. Not criticism based on actually understanding the situation, but born out of some academic platitudes around an ideal democracy. Now, after Shor, Georgescu, Simion, Russia’s invasion and many more changes to circumstance, there is a greater understanding that this is *not* politics as usual.
I'm hoping what Irina Vlah means by "not being silenced" is that she's planning to rap again.