Personally, (without deep analysis), it had always seemed to me that the threat was overstated, though judging by this, not for sound reasons...
In the initial stages of the invasion of Ukraine I followed a chap called Trent Telenko on Twitter obsessively - he was a logistics expert, and pretty much immediately predicted that the Russian vehicles would not get very far, as they had clearly not had the most basic levels of routine maintenance. (He was VERY good at explaining how he could tell, in this case almost universal rust in the lower parts of wheel hubs and similar, showing they had not been moved for a long time)
So my assumption was that the ammo had been similarly poorly maintained.
This seems to have been a dodgy assumption.
But given the mess in Transnistria since Russia cut off energy, it seems possible things have got worse. And highly unlikely they have got better.
I think my takeaway here is that in the absence of evidence, all these claims are political. My reporting has led me to believe that the new estimates of the yield are accurate. If Transnistria / the Russians suddenly come out (as they are) and say “oh, the condition is super bad and we really need to do something about it,” then I think the answer has to be “sure, let’s send inspectors to see.”
Excellent reporting. It was a mood booster to see these articles in my inbox.
“'Moldovan and Transnistrian administrations are thoroughly penetrated by each other' and that the Human Intelligence (HUMINT) cited is likely to come through cousins, family connections[...]."
I have an irrational image in my mind of the "inner-Moldovan" border being akin to the inner-German border of the Cold War era. Little things like this in in your reporting do a good job of dispelling the idea that I (and I assume many Westerners who have never been to Moldova) have of the nature of the Transnistrian entity.
One question I still have is: What would be the best option for dump if convergence happened tomorrow? On-site disposal? Shipment to a third party nearby to the east?
Hi Benjamin! sorry for the slow reply, I sent this article and then went on vacation.
About disposal - I don't think there is any way to know right now. Firstly, the circumstances really matter - would it be possible to ship it back to Russia? unlikely, but we don't know what the future will bring. Secondly, we have no idea what the condition of the ammunition is right now. Back in 2004 it could have been shipped off. Now? maybe so, maybe it would have to be dismantled / destroyed on site.
Right now there are too many variables and unknowns.
Fascinating articles. I get the feeling that Cobasna has not only been overstated in terms of its size and the viability of its weapons but also how useful it could even be to Russia. There is almost no chance that Transnistria would want to open up a second front against Ukraine in any case, unless Russia forced their hand.
Hi Hamish - thanks for the comment! I think that these articles show that it isn't a pile of munitions it is a MacGuffin. None of these lies or myths were about disguising military ends - they were all about politics. Cobasna is very useful to Russia as a political tool, even if it was never useful as a stockpile of bullets. That's my takeaway anyhow!
A brilliant pair of articles, thank you.
Personally, (without deep analysis), it had always seemed to me that the threat was overstated, though judging by this, not for sound reasons...
In the initial stages of the invasion of Ukraine I followed a chap called Trent Telenko on Twitter obsessively - he was a logistics expert, and pretty much immediately predicted that the Russian vehicles would not get very far, as they had clearly not had the most basic levels of routine maintenance. (He was VERY good at explaining how he could tell, in this case almost universal rust in the lower parts of wheel hubs and similar, showing they had not been moved for a long time)
So my assumption was that the ammo had been similarly poorly maintained.
This seems to have been a dodgy assumption.
But given the mess in Transnistria since Russia cut off energy, it seems possible things have got worse. And highly unlikely they have got better.
I think my takeaway here is that in the absence of evidence, all these claims are political. My reporting has led me to believe that the new estimates of the yield are accurate. If Transnistria / the Russians suddenly come out (as they are) and say “oh, the condition is super bad and we really need to do something about it,” then I think the answer has to be “sure, let’s send inspectors to see.”
Yes. If it is used as a bargaining chip, (which would not be a first, as you show), then the first step is to establish what is there.
Also - thank you for the “brilliant” tag. I’m not sure it is deserved but I much appreciate it :)
It's a neglected subject, clearly explained, with important and relevant sources, and clear relevant photos that add to the explanation.
Any one of those qualities is depressingly rare!
Excellent reporting. It was a mood booster to see these articles in my inbox.
“'Moldovan and Transnistrian administrations are thoroughly penetrated by each other' and that the Human Intelligence (HUMINT) cited is likely to come through cousins, family connections[...]."
I have an irrational image in my mind of the "inner-Moldovan" border being akin to the inner-German border of the Cold War era. Little things like this in in your reporting do a good job of dispelling the idea that I (and I assume many Westerners who have never been to Moldova) have of the nature of the Transnistrian entity.
One question I still have is: What would be the best option for dump if convergence happened tomorrow? On-site disposal? Shipment to a third party nearby to the east?
Hi Benjamin! sorry for the slow reply, I sent this article and then went on vacation.
About disposal - I don't think there is any way to know right now. Firstly, the circumstances really matter - would it be possible to ship it back to Russia? unlikely, but we don't know what the future will bring. Secondly, we have no idea what the condition of the ammunition is right now. Back in 2004 it could have been shipped off. Now? maybe so, maybe it would have to be dismantled / destroyed on site.
Right now there are too many variables and unknowns.
Fascinating articles. I get the feeling that Cobasna has not only been overstated in terms of its size and the viability of its weapons but also how useful it could even be to Russia. There is almost no chance that Transnistria would want to open up a second front against Ukraine in any case, unless Russia forced their hand.
Hi Hamish - thanks for the comment! I think that these articles show that it isn't a pile of munitions it is a MacGuffin. None of these lies or myths were about disguising military ends - they were all about politics. Cobasna is very useful to Russia as a political tool, even if it was never useful as a stockpile of bullets. That's my takeaway anyhow!