Gagauzia Votes Sunday
Today is the last day of campaigning in the joint elections for the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia and Bashkan (governor) on Sunday, November 15. A series of recent polls from IMAS on the Bashkan race show independent candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo leading with 26.5%, followed by Socialist candidate Fiodor Gagauz with 17.5% and Ivanna Koksal in 3rd with 9.6%. IMAS conducted 3 polls, one each in September, October and November, which showed a steady increase for Fiodor Gagauz from 3.2% in September to 17.5% today. Stoianoglo on the other hand has seen his support falling from an initial 32.4% to 26.5% today. All 3 polls showed a large number of undecided respondents with numbers fluctuating between 26% and 30%.
ZdG asked all 8 candidates for Bashkan what their position on Moldova’s EU integration is. Alexandr Stoianoglo answered that he supports “the living standards that exist in the European Union” and believes that a regional conversation in Gagauzia about these benefits is overdue. Ivanna Koksal suggested that Gagauzia was being left out of the EU integration project and that the region needed to become more involved. Fiodor Gagauz refused to comment to ZdG. Other candidates gave mixed answers, some dodging the question, others suggesting that Moldova should be “friends with everyone” and some refusing to comment. Notably, none were willing to openly condemn the project of EU integration directly.
ZdG also did an analysis of which candidates were being attacked or promoted by foreign influence campaigns. The results are complex and somewhat scattered as follows:
Alexandr Stoianoglo is being attacked by pro-Russian channels and tiktoks trying to paint him as a “hidden candidate of PAS.” These attacks include promotions of multiple Turkish language articles from Turkish news outlets purporting to show that he does not have the support of Ankara. In fact these articles are op-eds of unclear origin, and only imply official sourcing. Stoianoglo denies any connection to PAS or any other political party.
Fiodor Gagauz is being promoted by Kremlin-affiliated channels online, including sponsored ad campaigns, influencer messages and tiktoks. He claims not to have authorized or financed any of this publicity.
Ivanna Koksal is being promoted as the “choice of Ankara” by both Russian and Turkish linked accounts.
Serghei Anastasov (independent, current mayor of Comrat) is also being attacked as being linked to PAS by pro-Russian actors, including Sputnik.
According to the analysis of online networks and information from local journalists, no candidates seem to be clearly linked to Ilan Shor. However, multiple candidates have begun promoting Shor-themed messages, such as the need to pardon former Bashkan Evghenia Gutsul. Analysts who spoke to ZdG suggest that a large part of the electorate remains sympathetic to Shor and these candidates are trying to message to them.
Gagauzia journalist Piotr Garciu stated:
“Overall, Russia’s influence in these elections is significantly less than in previous election campaigns. This is due to new campaign rules and stricter control.”
The outcome of the elections for Bashkan and People’s Assembly will set the tone for Comrat’s relationship with Chisinau going forward. We will return next week with a look at the results.
EU Integration Updates
On November 9, EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos addressed parliament on the recent EU enlargement report on Moldova. She echoed the “ambitious, but achievable” language regarding Moldova’s goal of finishing negotiations by 2028 saying:
“if Moldova continues to implement reforms at the pace of recent years, we believe that you could close up to 25 of the 35 negotiation chapters next year. This would put you on a credible path towards concluding accession negotiations in early 2028. I agree. It is a very ambitious goal. And you motivate us to act with the same speed and dedication. You can count on our support every step of the way.”
She spoke of the need for national unity in the process of EU integration and said that the MPs have the ability to “write a new chapter in the history of Moldova” within this parliamentary mandate.
The Socialist MPs boycotted the address.
Commissioner Kos also spoke about the long term benefits to joining the EU, focusing particularly on Moldova’s outbound migration crisis. She explained how Croatia, which was the last country to join the EU in 2013, saw the first net influx of population last year. She said that “This is Europe at its best. A story of hope. A story of communities healing.”
Kos also noted that the EU is aware of the acute pain being felt due to energy prices, and promised a €30 million euro package to help offset the rise in consumer energy prices.
Cyberattack Updates
On November 6 President Sandu convened the National Security Council on the topic of the recent cyberattacks. Afterward, she spoke of the poor crisis communications around the event saying:
“The communication of state institutions about the incident was delayed and did not respond to all people’s concerns. The lack of a communication protocol for such situations led to hesitations and reactions. The latest assessments show that data of over 450 thousand citizens was accessed, a lower figure than that which has been circulating in recent days, but it is still a large figure. These people are to be notified by the EGA [E-Governance Agency]”
The President explained that attackers had exploited an infrastructure problem in the digital security system whereby systems verified data requests by application and not strictly on user permissions. This allowed a faulty application to be used as a launching point to send queries to other systems which were not initially flagged.
Initial reports had suggested that 750,000 citizens and residents had their data stolen. While the real number is lower, there is still no clarity on whose data was affected. Asked by a reporter if her data was stolen, President Sandu answered:
“I still haven’t received an email from the Electronic Governance Agency. I think the Agency should have sent this email as quickly as possible. I understand that everyone was busy stopping this attack, reducing vulnerabilities, but too much time has passed. Today, I obtained from the Electronic Government Agency a confirmation or a promise that all those whose data was accessed will receive an email acknowledging this,”
The E-Governance Agency has since announced that there will soon be 2 mechanisms for users to see whether their data was affected:
Via the EVO app - users will log in with their electronic or mobile signatures and see an access report.
Filing an information request - people without EVO can file a request online (still requiring a digital signature), in person or via the mail.
It is not yet clear when these systems will be operational.
Transnistria & Security Updates
Here’s a roundup of the top security related news of the week:
Drones, cruise missiles and balloons(?) violate Moldova’s airspace repeatedly. On November 7, two balloons entered Moldovan airspace without authorization in the north of the country. It remains unclear why, and both balloons later drifted out of Moldovan airspace. On November 11, two Banderol S8000 cruise missiles entered and subsequently left Moldovan airspace1. On November 12, police were notified of a crashed drone in a vineyard in a village in Ștefan Vodă. Police reports called it a Geran-2 drone with turbojet propulsion and noted that it hit a concrete pillar 1.5 m in the air and exploded - sending debris over a 25 m radius. This identification is likely a misnomer, as the Geran-2 is a propeller driven drone, while the Geran-4 is the current turbo-jet version with the same general design.
Vadim Krasnoselsky is “working” from Moscow. Transnistria’s “leader” has not returned to Moldova after receiving the “Order of Honor” from Putin and being told by Prime Minister Tofan that he is welcome to return, but will then be barred from leaving Moldova for 5 years. Asked how Moldova could enact such a restriction, given that Krasnoselsky is not a citizen, Minister of Foreign Affairs Mihai Popșoi simply promised that the government decision would be enacted if he returns2.
Igor Dodon met with the Russian Ambassador in Chisinau and announced a new Socialist Party delegation to Russia. They will attend the “Forum of Supporters of the Fight Against Modern Practices of Neocolonialism – For the Freedom of Nations!3” from November 14 - 18, organized by United Russia. Meanwhile, Russia expelled an employee of the Moldovan Embassy in Russia as a “reciprocal” act, after Chisinau recently declared an employee of the Russian Embassy persona non grata over the continued drone incursions.
Moldova has published the text of the recent Military-Technical agreement with Ukraine. The agreement provides for exchanges of experience, including around the repair and modernization of equipment, logistics, procurement, systems interoperability and more. Prime Minister Tofan expressed particular interest in learning from Ukraine’s low cost drone interceptors. The agreement is designed not to alter Moldova’s neutrality, and prevents any direct or indirect contribution to Ukraine’s military fight.
The Chișinău - Vulcănești Power Line Is Officially Launched
The 400 kV high voltage line has finally been completed, more than a year behind schedule. President Sandu and Minister of Energy Dorin Junghietu were joined by EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos at a ceremony marking the completion and launch of the project. At the event, President Sandu stated:
“In the first 30 years of independence, the Republic of Moldova invested too little in energy interconnections, and that dependence cost us. Every time Moldova dared to choose something other than what Moscow wanted, we were threatened with being left without electricity and heat. (…) We have managed to solve a major problem: no one can blackmail us anymore, turn off our lights and shut off our heat,”
For more information about this new type of drone-launched cruise missile, see this article.
While the mechanism remains unclear, it is equally unclear if he is willing to take the risk. What started as an information operation designed to ensure his luxurious retirement while blaming Chisinau for declaring him persona non grata, has turned into something of a game of chicken.
Sometimes Russian propaganda seems hamfisted, but you have to marvel at how a resurgent empire fighting a colonial war for possession of a former colony (while threatening to invade and re-annex many other former colonies), has convinced so much of the global south that they are the anti-colonial power. Honestly, it’s astonishing.