Moldova Opens Its First EU Negotiating Cluster
The move ends two years of accession limbo and keeps the country’s 2030 membership ambitions alive
Hello and welcome back to Moldova Matters! I’m returning from my recent vacation and will get us caught up with a full Weekly Roundup tomorrow. In the meantime, this topic deserves its own article so here we’ll unpack the big story of the week - the start of cluster 1 negotiations with the EU.
On Monday June 15, at the second Moldova - European Union Intergovernmental Conference hosted in Luxembourg the EU officially opened the first negotiating cluster with Moldova and Ukraine. Four years after getting candidate status the EU’s 27 member state all approved the start of official negotiations. President Sandu marked this milestone stating:
"Today, the Republic of Moldova took another step on its European path: we opened negotiations on the first group of chapters, Fundamental Values,"
"We got here thanks to the work we put in together and the effort of people who believe in the European future of the Republic of Moldova. Our country is moving forward, and the road ahead still requires perseverance. But today we have one more reason to be confident: the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union is no longer a distant goal, but a reality that we are already building,"
This event ends nearly 2 years of political paralysis and begins the real process of negotiations. Let’s look at what this means and what comes next.
What’s a Cluster Again?
The EU accession process is broken down into 33 negotiating chapters. These in turn are grouped into 6 main negotiating clusters. They are:
Fundamentals (judiciary, fundamental rights, rule of law, public procurement, public administration, etc)
Internal Market (free movement of goods, workers, capital, etc)
Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth (taxation, science, research, education, etc)
Green Agenda and Sustainable Connectivity (transport, energy, trans-EU networks, climate change, etc)
Resources, Agriculture and Cohesion (agriculture policy, food veterinary and phytosanitary safety, fisheries, etc)
External Relations (foreign, security and defense policy)
The most important cluster is Fundamentals - it is the first one to be opened and the last to close. Given Moldova’s struggles with corruption and work at justice reform it is also the most challenging1.
President Sandu has stated that Moldova is prepared to open all negotiating clusters. Various outlets have reported EU officials targeting July for opening the remaining clusters, but it is unclear how firm that timeline is. Moldova has been working informally on each cluster and has made significant process on 2/3 of the chapters in the last year. You can track progress chapter by chapter at this link.
A Milestone for Moldova and Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the news stating:
“We’ve worked hard to reach this point. In recent years, Ukraine and Moldova have taken important steps forward together. It’s especially symbolic that I’m addressing you today from Chisinau on my way to France, where I’ll attend the G7 summit. Our good-neighborly relations with Moldova are strong. We support each other and move forward together on the path to European integration. And together, we will achieve this goal,”
Interestingly, President Zelenskyy was in Chisinau transiting the country on his way to the G7 summit in France. This was his second time using the Chisinau airport for transit with the first being June 9 when he returned from a trip to London via Chisinau. On that occasion he met with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner at the Chisinau airport for what he called a “very positive conversation.”
** Update: to clarify, Zelenskyy spoke with Witkoff and Kushner from the Chisinau airport via telephone. Local reporting initially implied that they were also at the airport but that was an error.
Ukrainian delegations have primarily used the airport in Rzeszów Poland for international travels after February 2022. While no official reason for the change has been given, it comes against the backdrop of cooling Ukrainian - Polish relations2.
The location highlights just how close Moldova and Ukraine have become in recent years and serves as a reminder that the countries’ paths towards Europe have thus far been linked.
How Significant is This?
Overall, that remains to be seen. Procedurally, it is a big deal. Until now Moldova had negotiations in name but not in practice. Moldova and Ukraine attained candidate status in June 2022 and negotiations officially opened in late 2024. Since then there has been lots of behind the scenes work but officially the process was stuck in a sort of accession limbo. With the first cluster open the countries will actual begin back and forth negotiations on membership. Procedurally, the next milestone will be the opening of the other 5 clusters.
Politically the opening of the first cluster is a win for those who support EU enlargement. In Moldova, it sends a signal to voters that there is real movement and that EU membership is a tangible goal.
What is far less clear is what this move signals overall. France, Germany and other EU members are circulating a number of proposals for how to proceed that reflect very different underlying assumptions country to country. The opening of the first cluster was largely delayed by Hungary’s veto - which was wielded against Ukraine not Moldova. Orban’s hostility to Ukraine masked broader discomfort across multiple EU countries and his removal has brought those issues into the open.
As Moldova and Ukraine move towards the potential of opening other clusters in July, a key area to watch will be whether the countries de-couple in the process. Up until this point Moldova and Ukraine have been joined by various geopolitical dynamics. Now, that may change. Moldova’s smaller size and the fact that the country is not at war could mean that it moves ahead in terms of technical reforms. Meanwhile, some ideas from member states envision a geopolitical priority lane for Ukraine - but not Moldova. Now that actual negotiations are starting these issues become much less theoretical and the potential for a decoupling of the 2 countries increases.
Going forward the primary signal to watch is the speed with which the other 5 clusters open. If they are all opened in 2026 or in early 2027 then Moldova’s goal of membership by 2030 remains possible. If no more clusters open this year or if they are slow rolled then it is not. Opening cluster 1 this week means that the sprint to 2030 remains possible - but only that.
That’s broadly true for Ukraine also… but Ukraine’s size and HUGE agricultural potential mean that they face serious challenges negotiating on cluster 5 while Moldova’s small size makes it far less threatening to existing member state’s rural economies.
This stems from a complex debate about WW2 history that has become a culture war issue between political factions in Poland. You can read more about it on DW here.
Has the Sandu administration made any noise at all about Moldova being willing to enter the EU without a veto? It would likely be politically expedient from an accession standpoint to do so. Maybe even make some noise about Romania's veto serving Moldova's needs...