Weekly Roundup

February 7, 2023

Feb 07, 2023

Moldova and Regional Security

As the days count down to the one year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, more and more signals are being sent regionally that no matter how things end there will be little return to the status quo ante. Romania recently announced their military priorities for 2023 which include mostly new naval assets. They are looking into submarines, mine-hunting ships, amphibious assault ships, and helicopters. Currently Romania has a modest Black Sea fleet including one Kilo-Class submarine named “Dolfin” that has not left the dock in over 20 years. This shift in posture is likely a decision by Romania, in concert with NATO, to augment Black Sea naval capabilities by countries that are not blocked from the sea by Turkey’s control of the straights outlined in the 1936 Montreux Convention.

Meanwhile, the Moldovan Parliament adopted a new law on “Separatism” which sets out punishments for creating illegal information structures, public calls for separatism, espionage and contacts with foreign states, and more. The government says that the law is designed to help deal with subversive activities by foreign intelligence services operating in Moldova. Transnistrian “authorities“ have expressed alarm at the law feeling that as “separatists” they may be targeted. Moscow also responded with a statement from Foreign Minister Lavrov accusing the “west” of trying to pull Moldova out of the Russian sphere of influence by following the example of Ukraine. He said:

“First of all, because they were able to put a president at the head of the country by quite specific methods, far from freely democratic, which is simply torn, torn itself into NATO, it has Romanian citizenship, it is ready to unite with Romania and, in general, is ready for almost anything,”

There’s a lot to unpack in this statement, from questioning the constitutional legitimacy of President Sandu and the Moldovan Government, to implying secret plans to unite with Romania. Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded by calling out Russia’s “threatening diplomacy” and making it clear that Moldova is not being pulled west, but following a democratically chosen path towards Europe.

Meanwhile, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the office of the President of Ukraine, did an interview on Moldova’s TV8 where he pressed for a hard line on the Transnistria issue. He suggested that Moldova not be fooled by the idea of a negotiated settlement and warned that Russia was using the region against Moldova very similarly to how they used “separatist regions” in Ukraine to start the war.

It is telling that the response of the Transnistrian authorities has been louder and louder appeals to Russia to restart the 5+2 talks that stalled at the outbreak of war. Fundamentally, Transnistria is the only party that benefits from the status quo ante and all other players are trying to come to grips with a new reality that will solidify whenever the war ends.

Political Updates

There have been a number of small but important stories in Moldovan politics and international evaluations of Moldova’s progress on reforms in the past week. We’re going to do a rapid fire roundup of these stories and then dig into some of the larger stories leading Moldovan politics right now.

The Orthodox Church in Moldova responded to the European Court of Human Right’s ECtHR ruling that recognizes the rights of same sex couples within the jurisdiction of the court. Metropolitan of Chisinau and All of Moldova, His Holiness Vladimir stated "the most timid attempt to legally register a gay couple in the Republic of Moldova will be followed by a commensurate reaction." In Response Moldova’s premier LGBTQ rights NGO GenderDocM responded by filing a complaint against the hate speech of the church authorities. Given the new ruling by the ECtHR, rights groups may have some new legal tools to pursue equality - we’ll follow these cases closely as they develop.
Transparency International released their yearly Corruption Perception Index in which Moldova rose 14 places since last year to 91st out of 180 countries. The score is based on a 0 to 100 scale with zero meaning total corruption and 100 indicating a country that is corruption free. Moldova scored a 39, ahead of Ukraine’s 33 but massively behind the broader European average of 63.6 - which includes not only norther European democracies but also more problematic locations like Serbia, Kosovo, etc. Commenting on Moldova’s place in the ranking the report noted slow reform of justice and particularly highlighted the country’s inability to appoint a General Prosecutor even a year and a half after elections.
Also this week, the Economist Democracy Index was released ranking countries between full democracies and authoritarian states. Moldova was ranked in 69th place between Serbia (68) and Singapore (70). Romania was ranked at 61 and Ukraine 87.
PAS MP Radu Marian has been appointed the new leader of the parliamentary Commission for Economy, Budget and Finance. This powerful committee was previously chaired by Dumitru Alaiba who was recently appointed as the new Minister of Economy. Mr. Marin has been a strong voice for economic reform in PAS and it will be interesting to see what direction he takes in chairing this important committee.
Parliament has extended the state of emergency for another 60 days, amidst protests from the opposition. During the debate, recently re-released Shor MP Marina Tauber approached the Prime Minister as she was speaking and presented her with a set of hand cuffs saying that “the people” wish her to be in jail. Parliamentary Speaker Grosu responded to the opposition’s decrying of the ongoing state of emergency saying:
“Contact your friend in the Kremlin, tell him to come to his senses, stop the war, kill no more people, including women and children, in Ukraine. And then all the neighbors of Ukraine - and we, and Poles, and Romanians, and Hungarians, and Turks, and Georgians - will be happy to live in peace and tranquility. Until then, let us take care of our country,”

New Political and Opinion Polls Released

NGO Watchdog.md commissioned CBS-Research to conduct a series of polls on Moldovan’s political opinions. Watchdog and their selected partners have traditionally been among Moldova’s most trustworthy polling and opinion research organizations. Here are some top-line results.

Questions about the War

Whose is Crimea? 42% Crimea is Ukraine; 34.5% Russian; 23.5% no answer
Are Russia’s annexations of Luhansk and Donetsk legal? 49.8% no; 23.5% yes; 26.7% difficult to answer
What is the cause of the war? 39.6% Russian aggression; 35% split among answers such as “Russia defending it’s ‘people’s republics,’” “Russia Defending itself” or “Russia ridding Ukraine of Nazies”
Who is to blame for the war? 25.1% Putin; 17.7% the United States; 17% Russial 11.8% Ukraine; 9% NATO

It’s important to note that over the last 8 months, the number of people blaming Putin has declined from 34.2% in March to 25.1% now. At the same time reporting on the poll did not provide enough data as to where these people’s opinion changed. For example, it is possible that fewer people blame Putin “the man” and more put blame on Russia as a state and society, as the war rolls on and Russian opposition to it remains minimal.

Moldovan Politicians - Who do you trust the most?

48.8% no one
23.8% Maia Sandu
6.9% Igor Dodon
3.5% Ilan Shor
2.1% Ion Ceban

Interestingly, this question was asked both “open response” and “closed response” (identify which politicians on a list you trust). The results above reflect the open response version. The closed response was much more muddled with a large number of politicians taking around 30%.

If Parliamentary Elections Were held next week who would you vote for?

Results are scaled after 18+% of undecided voters were removed from the sample.

33.1% PAS
31.1% PSRM
16% Shor

With the high number of undecided voters, and the fact that new parties are forming in preparation for elections that are not expected this year, this number probably only indicates that there is a disappointment with PAS and a loss of support compared to the last election.

If Presidential Elections Were held next week who would you vote for?

28.2% Sandu
17.6% Dodon
Ceban 8.5%

Clearly, large numbers of voters were undecided or refused to answer in this survey as well.

What in the world is happening at Apa Canal?!

One of the largest stories of the past few weeks has been a confusing fight between Apa Canal, Chisinau’s water utility and Premier Energy, Chisinau’s electrical utility. Over 2 months last fall, Apa Canal’s debts for electricity rose from 9.5 million lei to 44.7 million lei and currently stand in excess of 66 million lei. The company claims that rising prices for electricity mean that it cannot continue to provide water to the capital without raising prices - something the national regulator ANRE will not allow. ANRE says that Apa Canal should have been profitable between 2019 - 2021 and should pay for losses from reserves.

Apa Canal is owned by the City of Chisinau and says that it must either raise prices or get a government bailout. In retaliation for the unpaid debt, Premier Energy has disconnected the Apa Canal headquarters and offices from electricity. The energy utility says that these cuts should only affect the workers of the water company and not customer’s ability to get water. At the same time, some parts of the city have had water shut off or reduced during peak hours. Mayor Ceban claims that this is all a mess of the government’s making and is generally making as much political hay out of the situation as possible claiming every few days that due to government inaction there will be no water in Chisinau.

Premier Energy says that they haven’t cut off any pumping infrastructure. Apa Canal says that without their control systems in the office they need to manage the network manually on site across the city which is causing problems. Apa Canal also tried to power their offices with a generator but that promptly broke. Radu Marian from PAS says that the cutoffs may be political from the city to try and force the government into a bailout. The Socialist Party blames Mayor Ceban and says that all “Pro-European” factions are to blame for this situation, maligning their former party member.

So what’s going on? Honestly, just a mess of he said, she said. Like most things in Moldova the problem will most likely be muddled through with minimum real disruptions but lots and lots of acrimonious press. With stories like this dominating the press, it is little wonder that polls show low trust in politicians of all stripes to get things done.

Economic News

Here are few key economic stories making this news this week:

Gas compensation for businesses - the Commission for Exceptional Situations (CSE) has adopted a decision to subsidize the first 500 sq meters of natural gas for companies at a rate of 12.27 lei / cubic meter. Companies with gas consumption that exceeds 5% of their overall costs can request an increase in their subsidy limit. These rates will be in effect from January to March. Previously gas compensation was only applied to household consumers deemed vulnerable. The decision of the CSE must be ratified by government and parliament but is expected to proceed.
Minister of Infrastructure Spinu announced that the taxi monopoly at the airport is over. A previous government had created the monopoly but at the expiration of the contract Minister Spinu chose not to renew it and will allow all taxi companies to operate out of a specially designated parking area at the airport.
Romania will begin importing LNG from Egypt. Romanian authorities are in talks with Egypt for long term LNG contracts. Moldova is expected to be able to buy from this supply via Romania. This means that going into 2023 further diversification of Moldova’s gas supplies away from Russia is ongoing.

Crime and Corruption

Mr. Dodon and his wife may be facing new criminal charges in relation to his recent planned trip to Romania. The ex-President got approval from a judge on the basis of a doctors note so that he could accompany his son to a medical facility in Romania for COVID related recovery treatment. On further investigation, prosecutors discovered that the doctor who signed the note had never even met the patient. On questioning, the doctor said he wrote the prescription at the request of another doctor… who turns out to be married to a Socialist party MP. Prosecutors have opened a case and suspect Mr. Dodon and his wife of wrongdoing and have again requested house arrest for the former president.

On a Somber Note….

Last night Turkey and Syria experienced 2 major earthquakes. There are already 4800 confirmed dead and many more trapped beneath the rubble. Moldova as well as many regional countries have offered support in helping search for survivors. The Moldovan Government has offered 55 rescue workers, 12 specialized vehicles and 2 search dogs to support the effort. Unfortunately Moldova does not have any domestic air lift capability to send this help so they have requested support from the EU and NATO to bring these rescuers to Turkey. Moldova and Romania also are in a risk area for earthquakes and in spite of this horrible tragedy it is heartening to see regional solidarity in attempting to help those in most need.