Since Russia stopped delivering natural gas to the Transnistrian region on January 1st there have been parallel crises on the two banks of the Nistru river. In Moldova,1 prices for electricity and heating have skyrocketed - in some cases nearly doubled. In Transnistria around 250,0002 people are entirely without heat or hot water and are relying on an increasingly fragile electrical grid.
Today we’re going to look at how this crisis is unfolding in the different regions of Moldova and how the messaging and disinformation war is progressing.
The Situation in Moldova
On the territory of Moldova controlled by the constitutional government the situation of the last 9 days has largely been stable. State enterprise Energocom has been actively purchasing energy on the Romanian market in order to meet the country’s electrical needs. This has varied in amount but has generally been between 45% and 55% of the country’s consumption. These purchases are made at substantially higher prices than were available from MGRES with free Russian gas but are stable and at these rates will not force additional price hikes.
At the same time Moldova is currently benefiting from both good weather and holiday schedules. Consumption on Orthodox Christmas, January 7th, was down by 22% as businesses were closed and people stayed home for the holiday. Renewable energy is doing better than normal because days have been unseasonably sunny.3 Finally, temperatures have been unseasonably warm with daytime temperatures around 10 C (50 F).
To date, a combination of these seasonal factors and the success of Energocom at reserving energy on the exchanges has led to a stable situation. If usage spikes and a shortfall emerges Energocom will have to begin purchasing emergency electricity at much higher prices - or institute rolling blackouts. Moldova has also not yet felt any ripple effects from attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine.
This is the situation in most of the country but not in 12 villages and towns under Moldovan government control in the security zone. The most critical situation is in towns on the right bank of the river near Bender that are connected to Transnistrian electrical and gas infrastructure. These towns, Varnița and Copanca, have had their gas cut off (though residual fuel remains in the lines) and are experiencing rolling blackouts instituted by the Transnistrian region (more on that below).
Prime Minister Recean announced plans this week to connect these villages to Moldovan infrastructure directly. He has stated that Premier Energy would connect these towns to the Moldovan electrical grid in 10 days (Varnița) and 25 days (Copanca). He also announced plans to connect these 2 villages and 10 more that get their gas supplies from Transnistria to the Moldovan gas grid. The Prime Minister did not give a timeline for this effort saying only that the work is more complex and "will take longer."
Announcing the plan, Prime Minister Recean stated that "Now we will do what should have been done 30 years ago." We’ll return to this narrative and framing in our discussion of the messaging war below.
As of today the situation in Moldova can be described as “fragile” but outwardly stable. Average people may be alarmed at price increases but there have been no shortages or disruptions to daily life. That is not the case in Transnistria.
The Situation in Transnistria
Starting on January 1st the Transnistrian “authorities” took a series of actions limiting their gas consumption including cutting off heat and hot water to households and companies. This, combined with switching the MGRES power plant over to emergency coal was meant to buy time and was projected to be enough for around 50 days of power.
This projection immediately fell apart as homes started to get cold. In the first days of the new year electrical consumption doubled as families started connecting space heaters, electric stovetops and electric kettles - all of which largely sold out in the region. January 2nd and 3rd saw 126 grid failures and unplanned outages in various parts of the region. This led the authorities to institute rolling blackouts on January 3rd. Under their plan the country was divided into sections and each section would lose power for 1 hour each evening.
By January 4th cuts were at 3 hours / day. On the 5th, 4 hours / day. This led to announcements of water shortages as prolonged blackouts reduced pressure in water lines and caused stoppages in multi-story buildings. By January 7th rolling blackouts had increased to 8 hours a day with households having 4 hours without power each morning and evening.
In addition to household shortages almost all heavy industry in the region has shut down. The Moldovan Metallurgical Plant (MMZ) closed operations leaving 2000 employees without work. The plant drained water from its furnace cooling system4 which local engineers say will make it time consuming to bring back online and dangerous to idle for long periods. While some stores and food production facilities are still operating on generators the vast majority of the Transnistrian economy has shut down.
On January 8th the “security council” of Transnistria met to discuss the situation. During the meeting they presented reports indicating that their forecasting for the energy shortfall was flawed. It was based on modeling from a gas cutoff in 2009 where many residents used their gas stovetops to heat their apartments. This isn’t happening now meaning that the pressure in the gas lines will last longer than expected. Conversely, instead of using stoves people are heating with electric heaters more - which explains the power system’s disastrous state as they did not anticipate the use of this many space heaters.
Public Opinion in Transnistria
Without reliable mechanisms for measuring public opinion in the region local press have looked to anecdotal information or indirect methods. ZdG and Newsmaker both highlighted compilations of TikTok videos from Transnistrian residents discussing the crisis. In them you get mixed opinions with most people simply discussing how they are getting by. Some blame their local authorities for the situation while others blame the Chisinau government. Multiple videos echo a talking point used by Transnistria’s leader Vadim Krasnoselsky - "everything will be fine."
In people’s comments and complaints they discuss how it gets very cold for them at night, how the power is unstable even when it is on and how they have no idea what will come next.
Newsmaker asked their readers in the region5 to send them comments about how people are adapting. Many people wrote back talking about how they bought wood burning or diesel stoves / heaters in December in preparation. People with houses who took the cutoff seriously were able to prepare in this way but multiple commenters noted that their neighbors did not believe that Russia would cut them off.
One thing that comes through again and again is frustration at a lack of a plan. The regional authorities have not announced what comes next, how pensions and social payments will be made this month and when this will end.
Here is a selection of quotes from the Newsmaker readers:
"A powerful campaign of blaming Moldova for the situation has been launched in the region. People, unfortunately, believe it. It is unclear what will happen next." - Anonymous
"While it is not cold outside, the house is generally acceptable, sometimes we turn on the electric heater. While we remain in Tiraspol, the gas outage is not as scary as the power outage. Without electricity, my family and I, of course, plan to leave for Chisinau or another country. We still hope that our people will wake up and understand the reasons for what is happening." - Anonymous
"We use air conditioning6 and then plan to move to another country" - Anonymous
"Most striking is the optimism of the local so-called "authorities", who boast that the electricity will last for 50 days. And what will happen in 51 days? Nobody says. [...] Almost every news release begins with the phrase: "Moldova provoked a gas crisis in Transnistria ..." etc. The point is that Russia really expected that after the gas was cut off, things would be bad for Europe, but Europe adapted, and only the Transnistrian region, which, it seems, loves Russia, suffers." - Igor Rusnac
"For now, there is electricity 24/7, what will happen next - no one knows. The authorities have 0 plans and 0 forecasts. The gas was turned off, “nothing depends on us”, live without heating. Electricity will also not last long, until mid-February. No more plans, actions, forecasts. They sit and wait for something.
“All the locals over 60 blame Ukraine and Moldova. They curse Sandu, saying that she wants to start a war." - FreeDude
The Messaging War
As we’ve written about before this crisis has been politically chosen by the Kremlin and there are no technical reasons prohibiting them from delivering gas to Transnistria. This means that the political effects - narratives, messaging and casting of blame - are central to this situation. We will return to this topic in another article soon to try and evaluate what the end goal is, but it is important to note this political dimension up front to *try* and make sense of the positions of the various parties.
Transnistria
Regional “authorities” have taken a multi-pronged communications approach to this crisis emphasizing 3 main points:
Moldova is at fault. This is often not fully explained but some combination of Chisinau failing to pay Gazprom or negotiate with Russia is generally cited as the cause of the crisis. Sometimes it is simply communicated as “Chisinau cut off the gas.” In this telling Moldova is also unwilling to help.
The “authorities” are responding to the crisis. Technical adaptations are talked about such as wood fire warming centers in public buildings, support hotlines and free firewood to those who can’t afford it.
“Everything will be fine.” Transnistrian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky repeatedly seeks to calm the population and assure them that with the measures taken by their leadership things will work out just fine.7
The Moldovan government has now clearly stated that they have been offering support to the region since mid December. The Ministry of Energy has offered to help facilitate purchases of energy on the international market. The Moldovan government has offered humanitarian aid including generators. There have been offers to assist them in attracting international support (funding) to help them make purchases and keep energy flowing. Reports from the various ministries involved stated that these overtures were met with a "negative response with aggressive rhetoric."
The Transnistrian “authorities” have continuously denied that they were offered any assistance from Moldova publicly. They claim that these are lies being told by Chisinau and continue to blame Moldova for their predicament. This has been contradicted by Moldovan officials going on TV and showing copies of official letters offering help.
Moldova
The Moldovan government has sought to cast the crisis in the following terms:
Cutting off gas to Transnistria is a political choice by the Kremlin. It is a strategy in the hybrid war against the country aimed at upcoming parliamentary elections.
Moldova is prepared to assist Transnistria and rally international support to this cause. But the age of free gas is over and the regional “authorities” need to work with Moldova to find solutions to these problems - including payment.
The government is doing everything possible to assure power supplies to Moldovan controlled territory and to mitigate the problems of villages in the security zone.
President Sandu, Prime Minister Recean and Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration, Oleg Serebrian, visited villages in the security zone today and met with local leaders and residents. In comments to the press President Sandu stated:
"We understand that they are going through difficult times. We are ready to help. I want them to know that this crisis is being created by Gazprom. Moldova has a contract for gas supplies, and under this contract, Gazprom must supply gas. There is an alternative gas pipeline, Turkish Stream. The fact that gas cannot pass through Ukraine is not a problem. Gazprom decided that it does not want to supply gas anymore, and that is why people are having such big problems now. We are ready to help with generators and medicines. People can come to the Right Bank if they need to go to the hospital,"
"Yesterday, [Ukrainian President Zelensky] and I talked about the fact that Ukraine could supply coal so that the MGRES could produce electricity for the Left Bank, the Right Bank, and Ukraine. There is a solution. But Tiraspol and Moscow need to agree to resolve people's issues,"
This issue of the provision of coal is one strategy of the Moldovan government to assist in keeping the Transnistrian power grid from failing. The MGRES power plant was designed to burn a specific type of coal mined in Ukraine. With Ukrainian offers of assistance the timeline of operations of this plant could be extended beyond the 40 days of operations currently predicted. Transnistrian “Foreign Minister” Ignatiev responded to this offer by stating that the plant is at full capacity already and so no such offer is needed.8
With the Transnistrian authorities refusing assistance, refusing to purchase energy and refusing to provide any plans for what happens as their final reserves end, this situation is at something of an impasse.
Another aspect of Prime Minister Recean’s messaging is to lay some blame at the inaction of past governments. Specifically he stated that "Now we will do what should have been done 30 years ago" referring to direct energy connections to the 12 villages in the security zone. This message highlights the precarious position of the current government since it suggests a followup question - why wasn’t this done 6 months ago?
Regardless of whether or not average people blame Russia for this crisis there remains a strong feeling that not enough was done to prepare for it in the last year. This sets up a continued messaging and communications challenge for the government - especially if prices go up again.
Russia’s Reaction
Spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, explained in remarks that the crisis is caused by “neo-Nazis” in Chisinau who have “blocked” the delivery of gas to Transnistria. She stated:
“This is what happens with all neo-Nazi tools, when, based on nationality, socio-cultural characteristics, based on compact settlement of people united by one culture, religion, community, they begin to be bullied, persecuted, and driven out,”
Transnistrian media has also focused on these more extreme narratives discussing “genocide,” calling it a crisis manufactured by Chisinau to overthrow Transnistria, etc.
The Russian Embassy has also made statements accusing Chisinau of cutting off gas to the region. Statements that were fiercely denied by the Moldovan government.
What’s next?
This is the big question. I’m going to return to it soon with a perspective article that will try and tease out what might be going on and where this all might be going.
Other News
While the energy crisis is the first second and third item of news every day I wanted to quickly flag one other story from the last week. On January 7th border police officers from the airport announced that they had detected "components of an explosive device" hidden in a toy car. The toy was detected by an X-ray scanner and defused by the bomb squad.
This device was being shipped as package cargo and it is not clear if it was scheduled to be carried on a passenger flight. Very little has been publicly reported about the origins of this package or its destination and the statement from the border police was lacking in details. It is worth noting that Russia is suspected of planting explosive devices on cargo planes destined to US and European airports since this summer.
Note: As we’ve done before with articles about Transnistria we will sometimes say “Moldova” and “Transnistria” as a way to indicate the parts of Moldovan territory controlled by Chisinau and Tiraspol respectively. This is easier for most readers than “left bank” vs “right bank” and is simply a convienent shorthand. All territory in question is Moldova.
Various figures get cited for the population of Transnistia. Most news outlets estimate between 250,000 and 300,000 residents. I tend to assume the lower estimates are correct (and maybe not low enough) as both sides of the river have faced serious outbound migration and poor record keeping.
Moldova often sinks into an Eastern European “gray” in winter with permanent cloud cover. In particularly dark years this can last from November until March with very few sunny days in between. Right now Moldova is having an unseasonably mild winter which cuts down on heating needs and increases solar power output.
As these buildings and factories shut down you have buildings with active water piping - either for household radiators or for industrial applications - cooling down to below zero. This is causing exploding pipes in buildings across the region for any place that was not properly winterized when the heat went out.
Newsmaker is primarily a Russian language independent media outlet in Moldova (though their Romanian content is growing fast). There are few such entities so it makes sense that they have more readers in Transnistria than most of the Romanian language outlets.
Most houses use split-system AC units that also have a heating function for winter.
Another aspect to this messaging is that Transnistrian “leaders” continuously stress that people in Moldova spend much more on electricity. In a sense they are comparing free power they do not have to expensive power that Moldova does and asking people to stay the course and keep free power… somehow.
This is dubious. Previous announcements from MGRES stated that only one of their coal fire units was set to run at a time - theoretically to conserve coal. Other reports (unconfirmed) have called into question whether or not the current coal reserves have been properly stored since they were imported more than 10 years ago. Most tellingly, if your power plant is at full capacity but will run out of fuel soon you still need more fuel. It seems that the Transnistrians are not planning for 40 days more of this crisis.
One thing I have yet to see from ANYONE...
How does this end?
Best case, worst case, any case?
The only bits that seem clear to me are:
Energy in Moldova Proper is becoming a LOT more expensive, for a LONG time.
I see no way for Transnistria to avoid a near complete economic collapse.
Therefore it's likely to be like a mini version of West Germany trying to lift up East Germany.
Best I can see is that Moldova's friends seize the opportunity to end the frozen conflict, and offer a LOT of support.
But, the energy inflation may well destroy the pro-Europe parties chances in the next election?
An excellent and useful summary, thank you!