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Election Roundup
Now that we are solidly in the campaign season for the upcoming July 11th Parliamentary Elections, we’ll begin the newsletter with an Election Roundup focusing on the biggest news of the week’s campaigning.
The Dirty Tricks have Begun
As we discussed in the last Weekly Roundup the PAS Party came under fire when it’s number 8 candidate, Nata Albot was accused of having been detained in 2017 with 0.78 grams of marijuana at the Chisinau airport. This information was leaked by a rival political party whose leader formerly worked for the police in a senior position. After multiple days without commenting, Nata Albot withdrew her candidacy saying that she did not want to be a distraction and for the attacks against her to crowd out the party’s message. She also explained the 0.78 grams of marijuana as not hers and suggests that she was possibly set up. While some would ask why anyone would plant a non-criminal amount of marijuana on a person, the answer is “this. This is why.” Mr. Plahotnuic who was de-facto leader of the country at that time was a master of “Kompromat” where he accumulated dirt on people to manipulate them long term. We will likely never know the truth of the matter but one of PAS’s most well known candidates did not make it even one week on the party list.
Speaking of PAS… now there are 2!
This week, the party New Historical Choice (NOI) party changed its name and is now called the Party of Alternatives and Opportunities (PAS). NOI was founded in 1992 and has not updated its facebook page since 2013. Journalists were unable to find any party representatives to comment. This tactic of creating parties or recruiting candidates with misleading names is a mainstay of Russian political manipulation and has been an underhanded tactic used in past Moldovan elections. The hope, that some people will become confused and vote for the wrong PAS party, sounds silly but works. PAS will have to educate their voters to make sure mistakes don’t happen.
Union of Unionists Again
Last week we discussed how the AUR Party’s attempt to build a Union of all the Pro-Union (with Romania) parties hit a snag when the PUN party rejected an offer to join AUR with a PUN MP saying “PUN cannot agree to that [joining the block]. AUR is known as a populist party, anti-Semitic, anti-European, which opposes NATO, the wearing of masks and vaccines.” Well, they have reconsidered and will now join as part of an AUR Block. Meanwhile, AUR is recruiting their candidate list saying “send us a resume” to be considered. This is a somewhat unusual recruiting method but AUR is not a very usual political formation in Moldova.
The Diaspora is Preparing for Massive Turnout
The Central Election Commission's (CEC) pre-registration program for the Diaspora voters has ended with over 100,000 people registering to vote. Recall that this registration is not required for voters but was designed to help the CEC plan polling stations around the world to prevent the huge lines and ballot shortages that have plagued past elections. This is 40% more registrations than were done in the 2020 Presidential Election and could result in as much as a doubling of the polling stations abroad. The strength of these registration numbers show not only enthusiasm but organization within the Diaspora community and indicate they will be a major voice in this election.
Early Polls show a Major PAS Lead
While polling in Moldovan elections can be pretty sparse and of varying accuracy, Newsmaker acquired two internal polls this week from one of the parties. These polls indicate the following likely distribution of seats in Parliament:
PAS: 47-48 seats
Communist Socialist Block: 26-31 seats
Renato Usatii: 11-12 seats
Shor Party: 6-8 seats
The polls did not show any other parties crossing the 5% electoral threshold but indicated that the Dignity and Truth (DA) Party is closest and most likely to do so if their campaign results in increased votes. The Unionist AUR Party barely registered, showing that they have the most ground to make up if they intend to get into Parliament.
Now, internal party polls should be taken somewhat with a grain of salt. In particular, we should expect that whoever leaked this poll to Newsmaker did so hoping to show their party’s strong position. But the numbers do line up well with former high quality public polls carried out early in the year indicating that the enthusiasm and momentum for President Sandu’s PAS party has not waned over the last 4 months.
Regional Tensions
The recent hijacking of the RyanAir flight from Athens to Vilnius that was intercepted by MiG Fighters and diverted to Minsk has been news in Moldova as it has around the world. Lukashenko’s unprecedented attack on international law and norms regarding civil aviation in order to detail, and potentially execute, a critical journalist has major implications for regional politics. Oddly, most political parties have been slow to comment on the issue in Moldova with President Sandu only commenting on Friday expressing “grave concern and support for those unjustly imprisoned.” No other party leaders commented. One Socialist MP praised Lukashenko’s actions as necessary to combat “Polish Spies.” Mr. Dodon has an extremely close relationship with Lukashenko, including his recent visit where he supported the Belarussian President’s brutal crackdown of protestors.
Meanwhile, Moldova’s civil aviation authority advised airlines to consider the risks of flying to, or over, Belarus but stopped short of prohibiting these flights like many EU countries are doing. This was seen in social media as “punting” and not taking responsibility for a decision… especially since no Moldovan airline flies to Belarus or through its airspace.
COVID-19 Update
The COVID situation in Moldova continues to improve as vaccine rollout accelerates and warm weather and outdoor spaces help keep infection rates lower. The 7-day average of new cases is 107 / day and deaths is 5 / day. These numbers put Moldova as one of the countries with the fewest cases in Europe when scaled by population (interactive map from the NY Times). Consequently, Chisinau has announced some unlocking measures with masks no longer being required outside (they are still required inside) and restaurants returning to normal pre-pandemic work hours. Nightclubs will remain closed.
Blue represents daily cases / deaths. Red represents the 7-day moving average
State of Vaccinations
The Phase 3 mass vaccination campaign is picking up steam with 120,000 people vaccinated in the last 2 weeks. But doctors say that this isn’t enough and quicker vaccination is required to reach herd immunity anytime soon. Furthermore, Moldova has only given out 35% of its current vaccine stockpile, and Romania is sending another 100,000 doses this week, so supply is no longer a constraint.
One innovative approach to vaccine distribution is the “vaccine marathon” idea where a mass vaccination center will be opened in an area and run 24 hours a day for a set number of days. The first marathon was held at the State University and was a major success with lines around the block for people wanting to get the Pfizer vaccine. 4000 people were vaccinated in 56 hours but Pfizer ran out at 4 am and some people waiting in line all night chose to go home rather than get AstraZeneca or Sinovac. Another vaccine marathon will be held this weekend at the Palace of the Republic from Friday through Sunday. Vaccines will be given from 9 am - 10 pm with no appointment. AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Sinopharm and CoronaVac will be available. As of Friday morning they are also seeing long lines.
Additionally, Chisinau has launched 2 mobile vaccination centers. One on a trolleybus and one on a regular bus. Each will be responsible for going to more remote parts of the village and suburbs but also to generate publicity and support for the vaccination program generally. At the launch of the buses there were immediately lines of people hoping for the Pfizer vaccine.
So vaccination is moving along, but the demand for Pfizer and lack or demand for other vaccines is creating an artificial supply problem. Hopefully city and government programs to promote easy access and correct information about the vaccine can break through some hesitancy and increase vaccination rates soon.
Reopening?
While the case rates in Moldova are much improved, the vaccine rate is nowhere close to victory over the virus. Even so, limited reopening steps are being taken around the country. Chisinau has moved from Code Red to Code Orange which allows limited capacity outdoor sporting events to take place. Balti went all in on the City Day holiday and allowed mass crowds to gather for concerts and events with no masks. Ukraine and Moldova have reopened border crossings (though you still need a negative test). And Transnistria has taken an odd route to reopening. They originally opened their borders with Moldova from April 30 - 10 May for Easter. Then they extended this to June 1. Now to July 1. The “forever Easter” policy is odd on face value as it maintains a default “closed” status with rolling exceptions.
But whatever the cases and approaches things are loosening up considerably right now. While some events, such as city day in Balti, are clearly irresponsible, other ideas seem correct as this major 2nd wave fades into the rear view mirror.
Economics
Moldova’s rural tourism boom of last summer has continued with rural tourism up 76% compared to last year. Much of this is driven by online hashtags like “rediscover Moldova” which challenges people to spend their holidays in Moldova’s beautiful countryside. This trend has the potential of building lasting connections and tourism infrastructure that could improve inbound tourism after the pandemic as well.
Corruption
Is the President being Spied on?
President Sandu announced during a television interview about law and justice in Moldova that elements of the Ministry of Interior follow her family. She said that she is impossible to intimidate in this way because of her Presidential security detail but that they harass her family. The President suggested that this was at the behest of the Socialists (who selected the ministers) and that she is not the only one followed or intimidated. Pavel Voicu of the Ministry of Interior denied the statement though he also accused the President of “not having any constructive political ideas” and more, echoing anti-Sandu talking points in his denial.
Anti Corruption Police Raid Agricultural Subsidy Agency
The National Anti Corruption Police CNA raided AIPA, an organization responsible for managing government grant and subsidy programs in agriculture and agrotourism. They claimed to be responding to a very large scale scheme involving self-dealing with companies affiliated with officials as well as a 10% kickback scheme in grants. Sadly, this is the reality of much aid that is distributed through corrupt local agencies (including international money). Kickbacks are extremely common and donors often prefer to look the other way. It is interesting that the CNA is aggressively investigating this and we’ll have to follow this story as it develops.
Ending on a High Note!
Olga Tsepordei became the first Moldovan woman to summit Everest this week! Olga is a prolific mountaineer and her submitting of Everest was the feel good story of the week in Moldova!
Follow Olga’s mountaineering exploits on Instagram
Great info, well-presented, as always. Thanks David!