Earlier this month I had the pleasure of meeting with some members of a joint pre-election mission from the McCain Institute, the German Marshall Fund and the European Council on Foreign Relations. They held meetings with politicians from many parties, civil society groups, independent journalists and others. This week they published an analysis of the pre-election situation and I cannot recommend it enough. It’s written by Laura Thornton, the McCain Institute’s senior director for global democracy programs. It’s in English and you can read it here.
The purpose of this post is to encourage you to read their work, but I thought I’d pull out a few quotes from their piece and share my thoughts as well. Here’s part of the top-line summary:
“A key takeaway from the mission is that “influence operations” is an utterly inaccurate term to describe what is happening in Moldova. Russia is engaged in a multi-vector war not only to thwart Moldova from its democratic trajectory toward European Union (EU) membership (approved by a narrow majority in a referendum last Fall) and bring to heel in Russia’s sphere of influence but also to threaten broader security in Eastern Europe and geopolitical alignment. By investing hundreds of millions of dollars through cryptocurrency and illegal financial schemes, the Kremlin has coopted major political contenders and infiltrated the Church, information space, and voters. The Moldovan government and civic actors have struggled to fight back in this asymmetrical fight.”
I think that the clarity of this paragraph is excellent and helps accurately describe the situation. In this newsletter we often write about “hybrid war” and I fear that we become accustomed to this term in such a way as to mask the key word - “war.”
The piece zeros in on the fact that the Kremlin is waging a war against Moldova - just not a war utilizing bullets and bombs (for now). It also accurately paints a picture of the stakes - Moldova’s democracy is threatened, but by seeking to overthrow it the Kremlin hopes to destabilize the security situation in the whole region. The stakes are high outside of Moldova as well - which is one more reason that Moldova Matters.
The piece goes on to directly call out the lack of American involvement in pushing back on Russia’s aggression. For many years the United States was Moldova’s single most impactful supporter - especially when it came to supporting democratic development. That is done now. She writes:
“Another finding is that while European representatives acknowledge the stakes of this election and have clearly taken the side against Russia by supporting only pro-EU parties with no links to Moscow, U.S. officials assert the U.S. has “no dog in this fight.” In fact, through the elimination of foreign aid, the U.S. is undermining Moldova’s efforts to defend against Russia. In every single meeting, Moldovans described how the cuts in U.S. support have been, in the words of one journalist, “a gift to Russia,” with estimates of USAID cuts at over 150 million dollars. Essential work debunking Russian narratives, providing accurate information on elections, the EU, Ukraine, and the economy, monitoring illicit financing, and bolstering civic resilience has stopped. One media group said that while it still received funding from the State Department, it was told the funding couldn’t be used for work countering Russian disinformation.”
Thornton goes on to make various recommendations in the piece related to restoring and increasing American involvement in the conflict stating:
“U.S. policymakers need to understand the consequences of these elections and should be drastically increasing our cooperation with the Moldovan intelligence community, bolstering funding and technical assistance for civil society and media, and enhancing sanctions against cryptocurrencies and illegal financing schemes and individuals. Our engagement on the frontlines is needed not just to stop another domino from falling into the Kremlin’s sphere, but to protect ourselves. Supporting democratic Moldova directly serves U.S. interests.”
In addition to analysis, the mission met with various key players in the election and presented some illuminating quotes. Here is one from the Audiovisual Council which is partially responsible for securing Moldova’s information space:
“As Liliana Vitu, head of the Audiovisual Council of the Republic of Moldova said, ‘Our efforts to build resilience, offer truthful information, and combat Russian hybrid warfare are important but the fight against Russia is completely asymmetrical. We are bringing a butter knife to a gun fight. But it is our duty to keep building democracy while defending it.’”
Finally, while meeting with various politicians, the mission spoke with Renato Usatii and he perfectly summarized why his party’s participation in the elections is so difficult to pin down in terms of either domestic political goals, or geopolitics. Here is how he described his party’s position on various issues:
“He told the delegation that his party is non-aligned and describes the party’s platform as ‘just me, I am the program.’”
Once again, the piece is very good and I really recommend reading it in full. Traditional foreign policy perspectives within US think-tanks have gotten scrambled in recent months and years, and there are more and more pieces written in prestigious publications that I would say “smell bad.” We’ve seen pieces that look like they could have been written by Kremlin propagandists and it is no longer a safe assumption that major American think tanks follow the national values that someone like me grew up with. It is heartening to find the right or left, there are those who still see clearly what Russia is trying to accomplish in this part of the world - and why it must be stopped.
Here’s one more link to Laura Thornton’s piece for the McCain Institute. Enjoy.
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