Hello Everyone! This week I’m extremely busy attending the Moldova Security Forum and surrounding events and meetings. Today we’re going to do a short roundup focused on some key security-related updates in the past week. Next week I’ll be back to catch us up on other important news stories as well as a look at the security forum itself. Please understand that while I’m away from the keyboard, I’m holding meetings and attending events to inform the coverage that Moldova Matters brings you. It’s very much a full time project so, if you haven’t already, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. It’s this support that makes this newsletter possible.
Record Drone Incursion and Strikes
On the morning of October 3, 5 Russian drones / cruise missiles1 entered Moldova between 7:45 and 8 am. All 5 crashed and exploded across 4 districts near populated areas.
President Sandu condemned the attack and called for more support for Ukraine writing:
“This morning, in just 15 minutes, five missiles and drones violated our airspace and exploded near populated areas. Russia’s war against Ukraine directly threatens the lives of our citizens. Russia can stop this war today, but as long as it continues to attack, Ukraine needs support to protect its people and preserve our peace,”
No one was injured in the attack, but windows were broken and shrapnel was scattered around the sites of the strikes and in some cases embedded in walls.
“3 Missiles and 2 Drones”
This is how the Ministry of Defense described the objects that violated Moldovan airspace, but there has been some confusion and contradiction about what this means. According to the Police, the debris found at the sites of the strikes is all consistent with Russian S8000 "Banderol" cruise missiles. This is a totally new munition for Moldova which has previously seen incursions primarily from turbojet powered “missile drones” like the Gheran-4.
Moldovan media classified the S8000 as a “cruise missile-drone hybrid,” which possibly explains that 3-vs-2 ambiguity. But there isn’t really a need to hedge here, both Russia and Ukraine classify the S8000 “Banderol” firmly as a cruise missile. It is air-launched by an Inokhodets drone (Kronshtadt Orion) and very much looks like a cruise missile as you can see in the graphic from NV Ukraine below:
When reviewing the data from their radar systems, the Army later identified a 6th drone that also briefly entered Moldovan airspace in the same time period before leaving back to Ukraine.
On October 5 at 9:38 am, an unknown projectile struck the Palanca–Mayaky–Udobne border checkpoint with Ukraine. Shrapnel or ricocheted material hit a nearby bus shattering windows and injured a border guard. No one else was injured and the guard suffered only light injuries and is recovering.
You can view security footage of the strike online via PulsMedia. The border crossing was closed for most of the day before reopening at 5:04 pm.
This morning, a drone entered Moldovan airspace before quickly leaving again for Ukraine. The pace of airspace incursions continues to grow, as does the number of strikes within Moldovan territory.
Coordinated Intimidation
In parallel with these drone developments, the Chisinau airport was evacuated on October 2 and October 3 in response to bomb threats. Passengers had to clear the terminal - either going outside into the parking area or onto the runway depending on which side of security they were on. After police sweeps determined that there were no threats, flights and airport activity resumed with delays.
Why this weekend? On October 3 & 4 Moldova celebrated the 25th annual National Wine Day and welcomed an unprecedented number of tourists for the festivities. Police reported that more than 100,000 people attended the celebration in Chisinau over 2 days and estimates have suggested that around 30,000 were tourists. In spite of drones and airport delays, Moldova celebrated its wine and culture with gusto.
Also - a Guinness world record was set for the largest human grapevine.
This week Moldova will host the Moldova Security Forum and various side events that will bring together diplomats and security professionals from around Europe. With Moldova Business Week last week and Wine Day over the weekend, this has been a very busy time in Moldova for out of town guests.
We can most likely expect more attempts at intimidation in the coming days and weeks as Russia continues to escalate with its threats and with drone strikes in the country.
We’ll come back next week with more updates, and with other topics including how the Gagauzia elections are framing up, new updates on LPA reform, the “Trump Liberty Line” and more.
We’ll clarify this (somewhat) below