The Long Tail of the Iran War
Like the rest of Europe, Moldovans have spent the last week watching the unfolding war against Iran and trying to figure out the basics. Why? why now? and what does this mean for us? While the first 2 questions seem as opaque now as they were the first day, the question about the impact on Moldova and the rest of Europe is becoming more clear.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to skyrocketing oil prices. With Gulf states unable to load oil and LPG onto tankers they have filled up their storage and begun gradually shutting down production. The longer the war lasts the harder it will be to restart this production. With analysis saying that this is already the largest oil shock in history (with the potential to dwarf 1973 and 1979) it is clear that the crisis could have a long tail.
Russia has emerged as an early winner in this war as the rising price of oil replenishes their exhausted war chest and the Trump Administration begins “temporarily” dropping sanctions against Russian energy. Meanwhile, peace negotiations in Ukraine have frozen as the real estate investors tasked with finding peace have refocused their efforts on the Middle East.
Incredibly, the United States and Gulf nations expended more Patriot Missile interceptors in 3 days than have been used by Ukraine since 2022. The US has long argued that it needed to limit the provision or sale of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine so that the country could maintain stocks for a potential conflict with China. Now, with US stocks rapidly depleting and Arab Gulf states running dangerously low on interceptors, they have turned to Ukrainian experts to help them with a more cost effective drone and missile defense.
None of this is good for Ukraine that it itself dangerously low on interceptor missiles. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has said that it is “not concerned” about reports that Russia is aiding Iran in targeting American ships and bases.
Moldova Braces for an Oil Shock
Right now Moldova does not face shortages of gasoline or diesel fuel, but worries have set off panic-buying that is causing lines and emptying gas stations. The EU requires all member states to maintain emergency oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of imports of 61 days of consumption. Moldova has no such oil reserves and the Ministry of Energy has estimated that commercial reserves could cover 21 - 30 days of supply.
The government declared a 60 day State of Alert1 in the energy sector but warned the public against panic-buying and noting that the conditions to not warrant a full State of Emergency at this time.
The Ministry of Energy has proposed a draft law this week to create 90 day reserves with the government responsible for 50% of the total and private companies responsible for the other 50%. The proposal states that 60% of the reserves would need to be kept in-country. The new law targets diesel, gasoline and aviation fuel and would gradually fill a reserve until July 1, 2030.
Moldova has seen some small fuel prices increases as regulators easy the price up while monitoring the direction of events.
Transnistria faces a more acute crisis as the attack on Iran immediately disrupted their natural gas supply2. On March 4th the region’s MGRES power plan switched operations to coal in order to conserve natural gas. The regional “authorities” have instituted a gas saving regime by cutting off heat to non-essential buildings.
The ongoing crisis and manifest uncertainty across Europe is only likely to further drive Moldova’s renewable transition. This week the authorities reported that Moldova covered 24.5% of its electricity consumption in 2025 with renewable power. The country ended the year with 980 MW of installed capacity, up from 77 MW in 2020. Of that 980 MW, 400 MW was installed in 2025 alone.
Other International Affairs News
Here’s a roundup of the other top international affairs stories of the week:
Moldova and Ukraine resolve a trade dispute after exchanging heated words. The issue started recently when Moldova’s health department (ANSA) detected the antibiotic metronidazole in chicken feed that had been imported from Ukraine. This caused a suspension of all poultry import from Ukraine subject to lot by lot testing for banned substances. Ukrainian authorities claimed that the situation was blown out of proportion and publicly suggested that they might retaliate by banning Moldovan wine. After much back and forth Moldova’s Minister of Economy Eugene Osmochescu announced that nothing will be banned and the countries are working together on new testing processes.
Far-right parties gather in Washington DC for the “Alliance of Sovereign Nations.” The event, which took place from March 4-6 was attended by Moldovan MP Vasile Costiuc, leader of the Democracy at Home (PPDA) party. The event was organized by MAGA Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna with the support of Turning Point USA. It featured Speaker of the House Mike Johnson as the keynote speaker. Other speakers included George Simion and members of Georgian Dream and AfD. At the event Costiuc posted selfies with various attendees and wrote about the event’s opposition to globalism and support of “national sovereignty.”
Clockwise from top left: Costiuc with Representative Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), Costiuc with Brian Brown, Costiuc with George Simion and his AUR Party, Costiuc with Representative Derrick Van Orden (R-WI)
Politics - a Week of Scandals
Outside of the international uncertainty, attention in Moldova this past week has focused on 2 “scandals,” the first involving a change in the laws for justice reform, the second involving the tragic suicide of the wife of a local PAS leader. Let’s jump in.
The Fight Over Herman von Hebel
The first scandal centered on the PAS party’s nomination of Herman von Hebel to the Prosecutor’s Evaluation Commission. This is the body responsible for vetting prosecutors and is the next major step in the planned justice reform process. Von Hebel was previously the international chair of the Pre-Vetting Commission and in that role drew lots of attacks from opposition parties.
If you don’t remember those details, or the accusations against von Hebel, refer to this April 2024 Moldova Matters article to catch up3.
On March 5th parliament voted to appoint von Hebel to the commission where he got 53 votes of the required 61. PAS MPs then abruptly voted to change the law on vetting to reduce the required threshold to a simple majority (51 votes) for members of the commissions proposed by international development partners. This law was passed with 55 votes. Following this, 53 PAS MPs voted to appoint Herman von Hebel and Bernard Lavigne to the Prosecutors Evaluation Commission. All opposition factions opposed this move and vowed to appeal to the Constitutional Court.
The move, which included slipping the amendment in an unrelated bill and passing it directly in the second reading, drew widespread condemnation. Many prominent civil society organizations, including the Legal Resources Center (LRJM), the Promo-LEX Association, the Institute for European Policies and Reforms (IPRE), Amnesty International Moldova, the Soros Foundation Moldova, Transparency International – Moldova and the Contact Center, all signed a letter of concern. It stated (in part):
“The legislative change was promoted in an accelerated manner, without real public consultations and by introducing an amendment to a draft law with a different objective. At the same time, the urgency argument invoked for adopting the change is not legally proven, and the existing legal framework already contains mechanisms designed to prevent potential blockages in the work of the evaluation committees”
Vadim Vieru, Promo-Lex program director, said of the situation:
“This is not reform, it is the reflex of a majority that prefers to change the rules of the game rather than play by them”
**Ilie Chirtoacă of Tte Legal Resources Center of Moldova said:
“It is an absolutely regrettable decision, because it is not justified, it was not consulted and I think it will serve as a rather bad signal for the European Commission,”
Valeriu Pașa, President of Watchdog stated:
“Changing the law on the vetting commission with such speed, promulgated by the President without lifting her foot off the accelerator, is a very bad example.”
Responding to the criticism, President Sandu stated:
“In this Parliament, there are not 61 deputies who support justice reform. There are not. If you disagree, you can give me names. Beyond the parliamentary majority, who would be the other deputies who support justice reform? We can analyze their statements and the actions of the opposition – they do not support justice reform. So, by definition, it is not possible to have 61 votes in this Parliament. In the previous Parliament, they existed because the parliamentary majority ensured 61 votes and then it was not a problem. (…) We are not talking about changing the Constitution here, we are only talking about appointing members to the Vetting Commission.”
For his part, Herman von Hebel stated that he’s looking forward to getting to work.
The Death (Femicide?) of Ludmila Vartic
The second scandal of the week involved the tragic suicide of Ludmila Vartic, who allegedly jumped from the 11th story of a Chisinau apartment building on March 3rd. The case became public on March 8th, International Women’s Day, when the NGO National Coalition “Life Without Violence” posted the following on facebook:
“Last night, the Coalition was notified via a post that another woman died as a result of violence.
Her name was Ludmila.
Ludmila’s death was no accident. It was the result of continuous abuse, humility and control.
Her husband abused her, degraded her, limited her access to her own children and ultimately left her homeless, without support and without safety. This man pushed her to death.”
The post went on to describe the death as “femicide,” define the term for readers and call on people in trouble to reach out to their network members to assistance.
This post immediately went viral, driven by the overlap with Women’s Day and the fact that Ludmilla’s husband was Dumitru Vartic, vice president of the Hincesti District Council and member of PAS.
President of the Council, Nicoletta Moroșanu, immediately called for his resignation saying that she acted not based on an assumption of guilt but that given the seriousness of the situation “maintaining an important public position in such circumstances is not appropriate.”
This was followed by a call by Doina Gherman, Vice President of Parliament, and the local PAS party in Hincesti moving to expel him from the party. Dumitru Vartic initially made a facebook post which was a mournful dedication to “Ludmila – the one who was Mother, Wife, Daughter and Friend.” He later deleted the post as the story went viral.
Dumitru Vartic resigned on March 9th.
What we (don’t) know…
At the time of writing the only concrete “evidence” that Dumitru Vartic abusively drove his wife to suicide came from that one facebook post from the National Coalition “Life Without Violence,” which itself said that they were “notified via a post.” The NGO later followed up noting all the various government agencies, politicians and police departments that have jumped into the case since they first posted - saying that they will monitor everyone’s work so that “justice will be done.”
Meanwhile, lots of social media posts swirled with rumors of rapidly arranged burials, skipped autopsies and similar claims of coverups. As near as we can tell none of those are true.
Here’s what we know, the police have now opened 2 criminal cases - one investigating her death in Chisinau and another in Hincesti looking into her husband. National Police Chief Viorel Cernăuțeanu stated that the police were unaware of any reports of domestic violence prior to her death and that contrary to rumors, police on the original scene acted according to protocol. He also said:
“It’s important to understand: if the victim remains silent, that doesn’t mean society should remain silent. Many are currently discussing what happened in this family. It’s a shame we’re only talking about this now, and not at an earlier stage, when social services, psychological support, and safety measures could have prevented the tragedy,”
The police have said that there was a suicide note but that it is being withheld to protect the couple’s minor children.
Social services announced that they were monitoring the situation with Ludmilla’s 2 children, but noted that the family was not previously on their radar.
The head of the Hincesti council, Nicoleta Morosanu, also noted that there were no previous complaints, either from Ludmilla or her relatives, that they were aware of.
For his part, Dumitru Vartic has not responded to requests for comment from many news outlets but told Nicoleta Morosanu that his wife was suffering from “professional burnout.” Ludmilla Vartic was a local Kindergarten teacher. He denies accusations of abuse and “femicide.”
This scandal has rocked Moldovan social media and politics. As far as I can tell, at the core there is a tragic death, and an accusation by a well respected coalition of NGOs without accompanying evidence or clear sourcing. National attention is squarely focused on investigating what happened and hopefully we’ll have more concrete updates next week.
Hybrid War Updates
Here’s a roundup of the top hybrid war stories of the week:
A new Watchdog report shows a new coordinated social media campaign in support of Mayor Ceban. The campaign involves 10 facebook pages, 5 founded in 2023, 4 from 2024 and 1 from 2016, that engaged in a coordinated rebranding in order to launch Moldova targeted content. The pages were previously focused on specific cities in Romania such as Stiribraila.info (news from Braila) which changed its name to ObservatorulChisinaului (The Chisinau Observer). All the pages now promote Chisinau City Hall projects with a heavy emphasis on the mayor himself. One page dating from 2016 was previously reported to have been launched by groups affiliated with George Simion. All the pages are running paid promotions and appear to be violating META policy by not disclosing either that the content is political or who is paying.
Moldova’s fugitives from justice in Transnistria have been located. The former president of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, Dmitri Constantinov, is staying at a friend’s apartment in the region, while other fugitives are in “more secure, more protected places” including a Russian military compound “under the protection of the Russian Federation.” This was reported by Moldova’s Chief of the National Police Viorel Cernăuțeanu. He noted that while the Moldovan authorities had located the fugitive members of the Shor network, they remained beyond the reach of the law.
Former deputy Security and Intelligence Service (SIS) director is on trial in Romania for treason. Alexandru Bălan was arrested in September 2025 by the Romanian authorities and accused of passing state secretes to the Belorussian KGB. In the ongoing trial the authorities detailed multiple in-person meetings with KGB handlers as well as the use of email draft exchanges4 for secure communications. Bălan was appointed deputy director of SIS under Plahotniuc and served in that role until 2018.
USAID
Finally today, I want to applaud the recent episode of Last Week Tonight with John Oliver that focused on USAID. In a 30 minute takedown, Oliver focuses on the malicious stupidity behind the effort to feed USAID into the “wood chipper” and the merry band of conspiracy addled fools who have now caused hundreds of thousands of deaths - most of them children.
Back in February of last year I focused in on one of the main culprits of this event - Peter Marocco. Oliver talks about this truly odd character, but there is so much more. If you want to understand the “religious” motivation, petty vengeance, kidnapping plots, January 6th events and more that brought this man to a place of power over USAID - read my piece from last year.
USAID was imperfect - and the first people to tell you that would have been the people who worked there. But the agency did a huge amount of good around the world and provided Moldova critical support at some of the country’s lowest moments since independence. More importantly, in my experience, the people who worked there were in it for the right reasons and really really cared about their work helping others.
I can’t put into words how angry I remain at how the Trump administration maligned these people - calling them criminals or worse. Luckily, John Oliver found some good words so I’ll share those with you here.
This allows the government to stockpile additional reserves, condition the export of electricity produced by renewables and prepare diesel reserves / distribution for the start of the agricultural season.
We aren’t fully sure why, but some reports have indicated that the Dubai company purchasing gas for them was forced to evacuate.
Back then, PAS MP Olesea Stamate was leaking to the press that the party really wanted to oust von Hebel. Interesting in the context of her subsequent removal from the party and the lengths PAS is about to go to in order to keep him.
This is a method where 2 people both have the login credentials to an email account and pass messages by writing drafts and saving them in the drafts folder. The information is never sent publicly through the internet and either party can delete the account (someone in Belarus did as soon as his arrest was reported) and remove evidence.