Moldova Prevents Blackouts in Crisis
On March 28 Moldova’s Minister of Energy announced that the high voltage line struck during Russia’s attack on the March 23 was fully repaired. This followed a difficult few days with the country coming very close to instituting rolling blackouts on March 27 due to challenges purchasing enough import capacity.
Minister of Energy Dorin Junghietu, speaking to ZdG stated, that this “was a deliberate attack” and provided more information on the target saying:
“We have seen several photos, but they cannot be made public, because they are sensitive information and would expose more than they should, but one of the critical pillars of this line was deliberately attacked with several drones. They knew very well where to hit, where they wanted to hit.”
He put the attack in the context of the recent “accident or attack at the hydroelectric power plant in Ukraine, which polluted our Dniester River” strongly implying that Russia was targeting infrastructure in Ukraine what would necessarily have a knock-on effect in Moldova. He described the high voltage line pillar targeted as “critical” and also hard to repair. This is partly because it is in a remote location in the Danube delta region that is inaccessible for heavy equipment if the ground is wet from rain.
While the acute phase of the emergency has passed, this vulnerability remains. The Minister has pledged to complete the works on the Vulcănești – Chișinău power line by May, but noted that it will not protect from this specific targeting as a small part of the line will still pass through Ukraine1.
Kremlin disinformation campaigns targeted the country’s vulnerability, with Russian state media reporting on the problem - but not the cause - and social media campaigns blaming it on “incompetence of the government.” Socialist MP Bogdan Țîrdea and fugitive former Shor Party MP Marina Tauber called the State of Emergency a fiction designed to create fear and take away personal liberties.
A main narrative is also that Moldova should restart purchases of electricity from the MGRES power plant in Transnistria - currently impractical if not impossible2. Socialist MPs Igor Dodon and Zinaida Greceanîi traveled to Moscow on a “short-term working visit” to discuss energy supply and blame the PAS government for not purchasing energy from Russia / MGRES.
The government announced that it plans to ask parliament to lift the State of Emergency next week after the repaired line is fully tested and certified. The Ministry of Foriegn Affairs also announced that they plan to seek compensation from Russia for the damage3.
Iran Energy Crisis
While the high voltage line strike was an acute crisis, the much bigger crisis facing Moldova is the energy crisis caused by the United States’ and Israel’s war against Iran. Prices continue to rise with diesel now 56.3% more expensive than when the war began and gasoline 25.7% more expensive. As of March 30th fuel stocks provide for 17 days of supply for gasoline, 7 days for diesel and 16 days for LPG. While imports are continuing as normal there are substantial worries across Europe of shortages if the war continues much longer.
On March 26 the government met in extraordinary session and has begun implementing response measures including:
The National Energy Regulatory Agency (ANRE) will update its formula for calculating standard diesel price limits. Previously the formula relied on a 14 day average of purchase prices, now it will use a 7 day average. This will allow prices to rise more quickly and prevent gas stations from closing en-masse when the purchase price exceeds the allowed retail price.
If gas stations run out of standard diesel, they are required to sell premium diesel at the standard price.
Lukoil is allowed to purchase supplies on the local market to supply their stations. This rule does not allow them to restart imports or violate other aspects of American sanctions, but is designed to expand the number of operating gas stations during the crisis.
Regulated fare prices for bus and mini-bus routes will be updated weekly according to price rises.
Fuel importers are required to present their April plans to the government and are prohibited from importing less fuel in April than they did in March.
Reactions and Analysis
Moldova’s Union of Transporters and Road Workers (UTA) called the initial 16% increase in bus and mini-bus fares “a superficial measure that does not solve the root of the problem.” They blamed the government for imposing a regulated market but not taking responsibility via subsidies for a crisis. The association is calling for 0% VAT rate on fuel for transport operators, deferred tax payments for new vehicle imports, direct subsidies via travel vouchers for vulnerable passengers (pensioners, students, etc) and more. They also noted that the “disastrous state of district and inter-district roads” following Moldova’s harshest winter in a decade is another hidden tax on them as they struggle to maintain and repair their vehicles.
UTA and farmers are among the first groups to face stress from this crisis but certainly not the last. Experts interviewed by ZdG painted a bleak economic picture and few solutions for the government. Eugen Muravschi from Watchdog explained that the biggest issue is diesel which is used for agriculture and transit. He noted that Moldova’s excise taxes on fuel are already low - more than 2x lower than the European norm - which leaves very little room to cut. These taxes also fund road repair and after last winter the road network is a mess. A VAT cut for all fuel sales would be too damaging for the budget, but he suggested that targeted measures for farmers and transport operators might help.
Adrian Lupusor director of the think-tank Expert-Grup presented an analysis showing a real economic crisis may be coming. He wrote:
“If the oil crisis persists or intensifies, prices at $120–$140 per barrel could reduce Moldova’s GDP by 10 percentage points due to rising import prices, production costs, and consumer prices. This could lead to an economic recession of approximately -5% in 2026 and a continued shock into 2027,”
He noted that Moldova is more vulnerable than its neighbors because fuel imports account for a high percentage of all imports at 15.9%. His analysis indicates that the inflation caused by fuel prices should mostly be absorbed by the coming economic recession4.
Analysis: The Bigger Picture
Naturally, Kremlin disinformation networks are spreading narratives blaming the government, or sometimes Romania, for the shortages. They are likely trying to plant useful stories now in the hopes that some take root when the crisis spreads from the pump to the wider economy in the coming weeks and months.
The success of that campaign seems doubtful. More than any economic crisis in living memory this crisis can clearly be attributed to one man - Donald Trump. Americans worried about $4 / gallon gas may not realize that Europe is now facing $7 - $8 / gallon rates5 - numbers that are expected to rise sharply if this war continues.
That’s the best case scenario. Politico reports multiple European leaders describing sleepless nights as they try and deal with an oil supply shock larger than that of 1973, 1979 and the war in Ukraine combined. Leaders are now contemplating options for “demand destruction” including drive-free Sundays, gas rationing and similar approaches.
While polls show that Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of this war, I don’t get the impression that they widely understand how enraged Europeans are. In a recent podcast from Pod Save America, Jon Lovett described Trump’s negotiations with Iran as 2 people playing chicken after the cars have already crashed head on - just shouting at each other over blown airbags. In that analogy, Europe (and even more so East Asia) are like collateral roadkill that neither party noticed except when Trump somehow blames them for the crash. The war has seriously threatened NATO’s cohesion, been a massive boon to the Russian war effort and threatens huge and lasting harm to the continent’s economies.
With no end in sight, this war is upending the global security and economic order - and small countries like Moldova have very few ways to insulate themselves from the damage.
If you’re interested in a more comprehensive analysis of the European vs American perspectives on this war, I recommend the most recent episode of The Rest is Politics Podcast.
International Affairs & Security
Here’s a roundup of the top international affairs and security news of the week:
President Sandu made the first official visit of a Moldovan head of state to Slovakia. There she signed agreements on promoting joint investments and on deepening security cooperation. The President thanked Slovakia for assisting both in the Nistru river cleanup and in supporting the provision of electricity during the recent crisis. She highlighted both crises as examples of how “Ukraine’s resilience matters far beyond Ukraine itself. It is essential for Moldova’s security and for European security as a whole.”
Speaker of Parliament Igor Grosu attended the 4th anniversary of the Bucha massacre in Ukraine. In the 22 days that the Kyiv suburb was occupied, ending on March 31, 2022, Russia committed more than 9000 war crimes and murdered more than 1700 civilians. Writing about the event Speaker Grosu stated:
“It’s been four years since the massacre in the city of Bucea, one of the towns in the suburbs of Kiev, which experienced unimaginable atrocities from the Russian army. I was there four years ago. I saw it. And you can’t forget it. Today, together with other European leaders, we commemorated the victims of that massacre,”
Transnistria further delays salary payments. In June 2025 the regional “authorities” began splitting salary payments into 2 installments6 allowing for the second half of the payment to come at the end of the following month. This has now been pushed back further until the 9th of the next month. This delaying tactic is essentially a zero interest loan from workers to their employer and, while it can buy time, it does not materially change the conditions causing the crisis.
On March 31 another drone entered Moldovan airspace. The Shahed drone was tracked on Ukrainian radar as it flew over Transnistria for around 7 minutes before returning to Ukraine.
Ukraine has announced new security measures on their border with Transnistria. The Ukrainian army has announced that the border is now “heavily mined” and that they are in the process of installing barbed wire and autonomous video warning systems. They have also announced the deployment of additional mechanized troops to strengthen the defenses.
Politics
Here’s a roundup of the top politics stories of the week:
Parliament has accepted the resignation of PAS MP Nicolae Botgros. The famous composer previously announced his resignation because he felt forced to choose between politics and music due to laws around side-jobs. Opposition MP Renato Usatii proposed an amendment of these laws to allow musicians, actors and athletes to continue with their careers while in parliament. Currently, only academic jobs are allowed for sitting MPs. Speaker Igor Grosu supported the idea and suggested that parliament study loosening the rules, noting that Moldova has far stricter compatibility rules than other countries in the region including Romania.
The EU delegation announced that the Chisinau-Ungheni rail line would be the first electrified railway in the country. It will be rebuilt on European rail guage and allow for travel of up to 140 km / h. The Ministry of Infrastructure has previously announced that the first phase of this project will connect downtown Chisinau to the Eugen Doga International Airport.
Irina Vlah had a wonderful birthday. The opposition politician declared 423,000 lei in cash birthday gifts for her recent 51st birthday. These came from dozens of people - family, former employees, party members and even a former interim president of the Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ). This birthday haul exceeded 2 times her annual salary. Moldovan birthday traditions are really very strict - you buy all of your friends and family dinner and drinks and they give you gifts - which are very rarely cash. When you become a (certain type of) politician, suddenly, lots of cash gifts. What a wonderful tradition.
Crime & Corruption
Here are the top justice sector stories of the week:
Justice reform is progressing, but judges are under heavy pressure. That was the takeaway this week from the General Assembly of Judges convened by the Superior Council of Magistracy. Guest speakers included President Sandu and European Commissioner for Democracy, Justice, the Rule of Law and Consumer Protection, Michael McGrath who spoke on justice reform. A report on 2025 activity showed that judges are now averaging 103.7 cases per month, a 24.3% increase from 2024. The removal of judges who fail vetting has continued to increase pressure on those who remain.
Veaceslav Platon’s trial hasn’t had a hearing in a year. The last hearing in the case of “fraud and money laundering in particularly large proportions” was heard in March 2025 as judges have repeatedly accepted requests for delays due to Platon’s lawyer being on sick leave. Platon is scheduled to have his UK extradition hearing from May 11 - 13, after his lawyers there successfully delayed it from its originally scheduled November 2025 dates. Platon has been out on bail in the UK since July 2025.
Ending on a High Note
Moldovan musician Sergei Stepanov, known as “Epic Sax Guy,” appeared on Britain’s Got Talent, getting “yes” votes from all 4 judges. Simon Cowell liked the performance, but seemed genuinely baffled as to who this strange dancing saxophone player was. Not so with Rapper judge Olajide Olayinka Williams (KSI), who is apparently a mega-fan and basically went crazy while the performance was happening.
Epic Sax Guy became a household name across Europe after competing in Eurovision in 2017 for Moldova with the band SunStroke Project. Their performance of “Hey Mamma” got 3rd place, which was frankly a crime as they were far better than the top 2.
If you want to put a smile on your face, here’s the Britain’s Got Talent appearance:
…and here’s Hey Mamma from 2017
…and here’s Moldova’s delightfully insane and genuinely fun 2026 Eurovision entry
Ok, that’s much better than economic crisis and war. I hope it cheered you up as much as it did me.
See last week’s roundup for maps and explanations of this vulnerable region
Absent a real solution, Dodon and Russian disinformation campaigns are simply parroting simple sounding Russian talking points. The MGRES plant makes power by burning natural gas or coal. Transnistria no longer has reliable natural gas supplies and has repeatedly rejected EU offers of gas in their emergency. They also have dangerously low coal reserves and can barely power their own tiny region. Without adequate supply this is not feasible. With adequate supply from the open market, the antiquated MGRES plan would produce power that is far more expensive than can be bought on the Romanian market. Utilizing MGRES is not impossible, but it is not as simple as a commercial contract and would require a major diplomatic solution between Moldova, Transnistria, Ukraine and the EU.
This is more possible than it may initially appear. Russia will never agree to pay and has publicly blamed Ukraine and just about everyone else. But they may not need to. If Moldova wins the case in a European court they could pursue compensation from Russia’s frozen assets in the EU or other jurisdictions. This is a really tricky situation that has both precedents and major problems. Often, while courts will rule on the merits of a case, political actors may not want to follow those rulings for foreign policy reasons. There’s a great Planet Money podcast explaining this dynamic that I recommend.
That’s comforting… I guess?
For a comparison of current fuel prices across Europe see this page. You’ll note that Moldova is among the lowest - largely because it taxes fuel much less than the EU norm.
Salaries in Moldova (and Transnistria) are typically paid in the first week of the month to cover the past month (pay in first week of July to cover work in June, etc). The June 2025 bill allowed for a first payment until the 20th of the month and a second between the 21st and 30th. Now that second payment is pushed into the next month. Essentially they are delaying salary payments due to reduced budget incomes - borrowing the money at zero interest from their workers.