For those unfamiliar, to be “in a pickle” is an English language idiom equivalent to “between a rock and a hard place” or, simply put, in a difficult situation.
In addition to writing this newsletter, I spend a lot of time meeting with journalists, think-tankers and diplomats. Most of the time they picking my brain on Moldovan politics and policy, but over the course of the last year the question I have gotten most is some version of this: “When is the US / Europe relationship going to return to normal?”
The question comes in many forms and is often couched in some kind of kremlinology whereby the asker is trying to parse through the various factions within the White House. Most of the time they aren’t looking for answers, so much as nuggets of reassurance and hope. For some evidence that this is an aberration and things will soon return to the way they were before. So when is the US / Europe relationship going to return to normal?
It isn’t.
Whatever consensus on NATO, transatlantic security, trade and alliances existed before is gone. As we’ll discuss, the Republican party is now quite hostile to Europe. Meanwhile, the Democratic party is consumed by domestic affairs. Eventually a new normal will emerge from this massive political realignment in the United States. I don’t know what it will look like, but I know it will not resemble what came before.
One example of this is USAID. If a future president wanted to bring it back they couldn’t simply recreate what was destroyed. New laws would need to be passed and a new argument would need to be made to the American people about why this is a good use of taxpayer dollars. There would be no broad consensus, meaning this would be an almost exclusively Democratic project. What would that USAID look like? I’m not sure, but I know it wouldn’t be the same as the old one.
Right now the Trump administration is speaking consistently and clearly about their views on Europe. Yet, my reading of the news and my own interactions with people working in European governments shows that the message is somehow not getting through. There is lots of concern, but not enough recognition that things are never going back.
The future of Moldova, Ukraine and the rest of Europe depends on a recognition of this fact and bold moves to rebuild a security architecture that can deter outside enemies.
Today we’re going to take a look at the new US National Security Strategy and why the clock is ticking on European security.