On Sunday April 26 Moldova’s National Meteorological Service issued a “code orange” for high winds across the country from 10 am until 9 pm. At 2 pm Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban announced that all outdoor events in the city were cancelled effective immediately and urged all residents to stay home saying:

“We repeatedly call on all residents and visitors of the capital to stay sheltered unless there is an urgent necessity to go out.”

This cut short the Chisinau marathon that was organized in the city center as well as other planned events. High winds impacted communities all around Moldova with 92 communities experiencing power outages and downed trees blocking roads and damaging cars all across the country.

In Chisinau, a 66 year old woman was injured after being hit by a billboard that blew off its mount and a 6 year old child sustained serious injuries after being hit by a falling tree branch at the Chisinau Zoo. The child is in intensive care.

In addition to falling trees, numerous cars were damaged by falling roof tiles blown off of apartment and house roofs onto parking below.

President Sandu Commemorates 40th Anniversary of the Chernobyl Disaster

President Sandu traveled to Kyiv on April 26 to join President Zelenskyy in commemorating the 40th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. In her remarks at the event she called attention to the lies the underpinned the disaster and praised the work of the international community who helped build the new containment system. The President stated:

“A Soviet regime that put its own reputation above people’s lives. That kept people in the dark while a reactor burned out — because the powerful believed they had the right to decide what the powerless were allowed to know.

Over 3,500 Moldovans were among those sent here as liquidators1. Many of them, with insufficient protection and without knowing the whole truth. They were asked to be brave in the name of a system that did not return this courage with honesty. Moldova commemorates them today. (…)

This evidence matters more than ever. Because the contempt that caused this disaster has not disappeared.

The same lack of respect for human life that defined the Soviet reaction is reflected today in Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian cities, in the occupation of nuclear power plants, in the war that Moscow refuses to even call a war.”

While in Kyiv, President Sandu met with President Zelenskyy and Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko to discuss bilateral cooperation in energy, regional security and EU accession. In a joint press conference she expressed Moldova’s support for Ukraine and called on the EU to “officially open negotiations with Moldova and Ukraine without delay.”

Romania Enters Political Crisis

Romania’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) reigned from the coalition government of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan and has announced a coming vote of no confidence with the support of George Simion’s AUR party. Prime Minister Bolojan has stated that he does not plan to step down and will send a new list of ministerial candidates from the now minority government to President Nicușor Dan.

Together, PSD and AUR have 219 of 463 seats in parliament, short of the 233 needed for a majority or to oust the government. They are whipping votes and seeking to attract members of the SOS Romania, POT and PACE opposition parties (41 votes) or the 22 independents. The remaining coalition of PNL, USR and UDMR control 164 seats.

The move has set off alarm bells across Europe as a major Social Democratic Party is making common cause with the far right. PSD Senator Victoria Stoiciu, originally from Moldova, resigned from the party when the news was announced saying:

“I believe that an absolute cordon sanitaire is needed to keep extremist forces in total political isolation. Any violation of this principle is not just a tactical error, but a normalization of fascism. Step by step, until the monster is too big to be killed.” (...)

“I cannot and will never support the normalization of fascism. It is a red line that cannot be crossed.“

Internally the alliance of PSD and AUR is a major challenge to President Nicușor Dan and threatens to further upset Romania’s complicated political balance of power. For Moldova, any actions that bring AUR into the mainstream threaten the bilateral relationship between the PAS government and Romania. We’ll watch this story closely in the weeks to come.

Security Updates

Here’s a roundup of the top security related news of the week:

• Sergei Shoigu, secretary of the Russian Security Council, threatened Moldova over the alleged mistreatment of Russian citizens. After the Russian Duma passed a bill giving the president authority to militarily intervene whenever a Russian citizen is threatened in a foreign country, Shoigu gave an interview where he claimed that the 220,000 Russian citizens living in Transnistria “are now threatened due to the reckless and irresponsible actions of Kiev (sic) and Chisinau.” When discussing options to protect them he stressed that “Russia will take all measures and use all available methods” adding that “Nothing should be ruled out2.” Moldova’s Ministry of Foriegn Affairs as well as the EU issued statements affirming support for a peaceful resolution of the Transnistrian issue and affirming Moldova’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

• Russian drone crashes in populated area in Galati. On April 25 Romanian military command stated that British Eurofighter Typhoons were scrambled with authorization to shoot down detected incoming drones in Romanian airspace. One drone crashed in Galati near the annex of a house resulting in the evacuation of 535 local residents and the disconnection of gas to 20 streets. No one was hurt and the drone was removed and detonated in a controlled explosion. The same night the wreckage of a second drone was found in Romanian territory near the border with Ukraine. Responding to the news, President Nicusor Dan stated:

“I strongly condemn Russia’s irresponsible behavior. Incidents like the drone that crashed last night in Galati demonstrate disrespect for international law and threaten the safety of the citizens of Romania, a NATO member state. Romania is not a party to this conflict. Yet, its consequences are felt on our streets, in our homes, and in our lives. This is the first time Romanian property has been actually damaged—a point we take very seriously,”

• A “drone like object” was found crashed on the roof of a Chisinau apartment building. It was found in the early morning of April 28 by a resident and resulted in the evacuation the of the building as police examined the crash. Police have since clarified that no explosives were found and that the components of the drone are being examined. No additional information is available at this time.

• Former director of Moldova’s Security and Intelligence Service (SIS) Alexandru Balan was extradited to Moldova on April 24. He will begin serving his 1.5 year prison sentence for the disclosure of state secrets. Balan is also on trial in Romania on charges of treason and allegations that he was passing secrets to the Belarusian KGB. There has been much speculation about why he would be extradited to serve a minor sentence while facing much more serious charges in Romania. Balan pled guilty to the charges in Moldova and is apparently doing the same in Romania. Balan was reported to have been sending hidden notes and making covert phone calls to persons in Moldova saying that his situation “must be raised at a political level.” Reportedly, he was attempting to reach out to Moldovan MP Renato Usatîi. At the same time, a source from Romanian specialized police DIICOT told local outlet HotNews that…

“Given the functions he held, this man also crossed paths with other intelligence structures from other states. He probably has some information and since he expressed his desire to collaborate with the authorities, it can be used. It’s also about pragmatism in such cases. I don’t think there’s a problem with DIICOT losing an important defendant,”

**Update: Immediately before publication it was announced that Alexandru Balan was pardoned and exchanged for 2 Moldovan Security and Intelligence (SIS) officers who were being held by Russia. President Sandu’s office stated:

"In order to be able to bring you (the SIS officers) home, following a complex operation, the 2 officers were exchanged, as requested by the other side, with two other people: a citizen of the Russian Federation, Popova Nina, who was acting against the state of the Republic of Moldova, and Alexandru Bălan, a citizen of the Republic of Moldova, accused of treason in the interests of the KGB in Belarus, who was pardoned in order to be able to leave for Belarus," (…)

“it is a gain that cannot be measured by a simple mathematical equation - we brought home two citizens who work for the Republic of Moldova, giving up, in return, 2 prisoners who worked against the Republic of Moldova."

This operation has been in the works for several months and was coordinated by SIS with the support of the United States, Poland and Romania. President Sandu thanked President Donald Trump "for his involvement and that of the US administration in the success of this action."

We’ll return with more updates on this breaking story in future roundups.

Political Updates

Here’s a roundup of the top political stories of the week:

• The State of Emergency in the energy sector has ended. Parliament voted on April 25 to end the emergency early but to maintain a State of Alert for an additional 60 days. They cited the success in repairing the damaged high voltage line and noted that actions had been taken to “maintain the functionality of the oil market in crisis conditions” and prevent major disruptions.

• An investigation from DIEZ spotlighted a thriving (and public) market for educational fraud. In their investigation, journalists from DIEZ found numerous companies and web advertisements offering services writing undergraduate and graduate thesis for as little as 7500 lei. Many of these services operated public websites and accepted payments via the MIA payments system. After posing as interested students and getting invoices for the offered work, DIEZ journalists sent 1 leu to the accounts indicated in order to get the names of the persons owning them. In one case, they found that a service was run by Ala Mușchei, former candidate for the Democracy at Home (PPDA) party in last parliamentary elections. She had been 84th on the party list and listed her profession as an “text editor.” Minister of Education Dan Perciun responded by saying that there would be zero tolerance for academic fraud. He stated that new software, already purchased, would be used to check thesis starting this year and that the ministry was reviewing legal options. Parliament has since announced hearings on thesis buying with relevant state agencies as well as law enforcement.

• Natalie Portman’s parents visited Telenesti on April 20 for Easter of the Dead. Portman’s grandmother was originally from Telenesti. The family later moved to Chisinau before emigrating to Israel in 1978. Portman’s parents Avner Hershlag and Shelley Stevens visited family graves and met with local mayor Vadim Lelik and discussed the town’s ties with the diaspora.

Shor / Hybrid War Updates

Here are the latest stories in Russia’s hybrid war against Moldova:

• Convictions in electoral corruption cases continue. This week the court convicted 5 Pobeda (Victory) party leaders and activists for bribing voters in the 2024 referendum - issuing fines of 45,000 to 50,000 lei. In a separate case, the presidents of the Ungheni and Rezina Shor Party organizations were sentenced to prison time after being convicted of illicit party financing. Cases like this continue to roll in month after month as the authorities bring cases to court and individuals in the Shor network are held accountable.

• New arrest warrant issued for Ilan Shor. Prosecutors have issued an arrest warrant related to a case of Shor’s role as an “organizer of illegal financing of political parties.” This case relates to the 2023 bombshell undercover investigation where politician Arina Spătaru (aka Arina 007) cooperated with prosecutors as Shor recruited her and others to create a new “pro-European” political party that would be captive to his network. A new extradition request for Shor has been sent to Russia. Commenting on the news, Arina Spătaru stated:

“In 2023, I participated in this investigation as an undercover agent. I didn’t take any money from Shor—not then, nor since. I did it because I believe Moldova must rid itself of political corruption and the influence of criminal groups. Three years later, I see that things are moving forward. Slower than they should, but they are moving forward,”

• Igor Chaika has been named the new head of Rossotrudnichestvo. Chaika has been sanctioned by the US, EU, UK and Canada over his role in the Kremlin’s attempts to destabilize Moldova. He has been a key behind the scenes player in organizing Kremlin support for the Shor network, the Socialist Party and as the owner of many blocked TV stations in Moldova. Rossotrudnichestvo is officially tasked with administering foreign aid and cultural exchanges for the Russian Federation. It operates like a state run version of Shor’s Evrazia NGO - utilizing soft power to forward Kremlin foreign policy and security objectives.

On the Sunday and Monday following Orthodox Easter Moldovans gather in the graveyards to commemorate a very Moldovan holiday, “Paștele Blajinilor,” often translated as Easter of the Dead. On this day Moldovans remember those who came before and gather in the graveyard for a picnic where they symbolically share food and wine with their lost relatives.

On the occasion, President Sandu put out Easter wishes writing:

“On Easter, we give ourselves the time to return to what really matters: our roots, our family, and the invisible thread that connects generations. Let us turn our thoughts these days to those who gave meaning to our path and who remain part of us, through everything they left us. And let us find in the moments spent with our loved ones, in peace and gratitude, the reconciliation we need and the strength to move forward,”

This is the last event of Moldova’s long Easter season - stretching from lent fasting through Catholic and Orthodox Easter and on to this very local commemoration. If you’d like to read more about Easter of the Dead we published a guest essay on the topic back in April 2024 which you can read here:

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Politics & News

Here are the top stories of the week:

• The Alternative Bloc and Faction continue to disintegrate. After Mayor Ceban confusingly announced that his MAN party would withdraw from the Alternative Bloc but remain in the Alternative parliamentary faction - while also loudly distancing itself from that faction - Mark Tkaciuk announced that his Civic Congress party was withdrawing from the parliamentary faction. He said that in a circumstance where MAN loudly distances itself from its partners the only honest move was to break away.

• The Central Election Commission (CEC) submitted plans for revising the electoral code for public consultations. The amendments envision tighter control over social media advertising, including parties declaring all their paid channels and platforms being required to report spending and targeting. The plan pays specific attention to Gagauzia, where the CEC proposes to add additional eligibility criteria for those standing for Bashkan. Specifically, a candidate for Bashkan would be required to speak both Gagauz and Romanian, be at least 35 years old and have lived in the region for at least 1 year. Additionally the amendments would restructure the Central Electoral Council of Gagauzia, reducing the membership from 9 to 7. Two members each would be appointed by the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, the Executive Committee of Gagauzia and the Comrat Court. One would be appointed by the CEC and the chair and vice chair of the CEC would be permitted to attended Central Electoral Council meetings without voting rights.

• The Electronic Government Agency (AGE) announced that digital ID documents through the EVO app will be useable for interactions with banks and government agencies by June. The agency plans to eliminate the requirement to personally visit agencies by Fall through the use of electronic signatures. EVO is part of the government’s plan to digitize 100% of state services by 2030.

• President Sandu commemorated the victims of the Stalinist Famines. She marked the occasion, commemorated on the 3rd Sunday in April, in the village of Mingir where 1400 people died in the famine - nearly half of the population. She stated:

“The famine of 1946–1947 affected hundreds of thousands of people and led to the loss of 200,000 lives. Figures that still terrify us today, but which cannot fully encompass the trauma that parents and children, young and old, went through,” (…)

“When the truth is told, even after decades, it brings justice. It helps us to understand, not to forget and not to repeat. And, above all, only the truth sets us free,”

• Local Public Administration (LPA) reform is becoming contentious. The MAN party protested last week against the planned reform calling it “a direct attack on local public administration” and claiming that PAS would use it to eliminate mayors from other parties. Meanwhile, activists like Vasile Tofan continue to give interviews calling for more radical reform and urging the government to think bigger. The government hopes to pass LPA reform this year but we are still at the early stages of what promises to be a long process.

Energy Crisis

The energy crisis caused by the American-Israeli war against Iran continues to create uncertainty in Europe’s energy markets. The fragile ceasefire and negotiations have caused fuel prices to drop slightly in Moldova, but diesel remains 51% more expensive than before the war started while gasoline is 23% more expensive. Fuel imports continue without issue and the country continues to maintain stockpiles of around 19 days of gasoline and 11 days of diesel. With the situation slightly stabilizing, on April 15th, Prime Minister Munteanu again announced that he would ask parliament to lift the State of Emergency. At the time of writing he has not yet done this, possibly owing to the holiday schedule.

Rising prices continue to have knock-on effects with Transnistria announcing a 17% increase in ticket prices for suburban buses and intercity transit. Moldova’s Lukoil stations also continue to operate as the Trump Administration extended waivers on American sanctions until October.

In order to help farmers with the near term diesel prices, and the projected medium term problems with fertilizer, the Ministry of Agriculture announced that they were creating a new component of the Agricultural Credit Facility Program to support loans for working capital. The program is set to launch through banks within 2 weeks and provide lines of credit up to 500,000 lei at a fixed 5.1% APR for 5 years. This support is targeted at “micro and small farmers1.”

Transnistria & Security

Here’s a roundup of the top security stories of the week:

• Chisinau has declared the leadership of the Russian army in Transnistria “undesirable.” Zona de Securitate has reported that the military commanders and their deputies will be blocked from entering Moldova. Transnistrian “Foreign Minister” Ignatiev called the move “unreasonable and destructive,” noting that the Russian army units and the Russian “Peacekeepers” are “a single entity” and saying that any restriction on their operations would “negatively impact the peacekeeping operation.”

• Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Administration, General Kirill Budanov, says that the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria is not part of peace negotiations with Russia. In an interview with Malenkaia Strana he called the troops there a “known threat” but stated that Ukraine is not putting this condition forward in order not to complicate the peace process.

• Romania is becoming a “boulevard for Russian drones.” That statement was made by former Romanian President Traian Băsescu who added “we are starting to look ridiculous.” The comments come after reports of multiple drone incursions into Romanian airspace in the delta region. DW reports that for multiple political and technical reasons Romania has made a decision not to shoot down these drones and to largely let them pass through the country’s airspace to attack Ukraine.

• The Russian Duma passed a bill in the first reading to allow the president to deploy military forces to “protect the rights of Russian citizens.” This bill focuses specifically on Russian citizens who are detained, arrested or prosecuted outside of Russia, and is likely being passed in the context of the EU’s proposals for setting up a “Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine.”

• Alexandru Balan will be extradited to Moldova following sentencing. The former director of Moldova’s Security and Intelligence Service (SIS) pled guilty to divulging state secrets and was sentenced last week to 1.5 years in prison. He joined the court hearings via video call as he is currently under house arrest in Romania where he faces treason charges (he is also a Romanian citizen) and up to 20 years in prison. Those charges relate to his participation in a Belarusian spy ring where he was caught passing secrets to the KGB. Romania has agreed to extradite him to Moldova to begin serving his sentence.

International Affairs

Here’s a roundup of the top international affairs stories of the week:

• President Sandu attended the Antalya Diplomatic Forum in Turkey. There she met on the sidelines with President Erdogan and discussed economic cooperation, attracting investments and “the protection of the Gagauz language and culture and joint support for the development of the region.” Turkey is Moldova’s 2nd largest export designation and the 4th largest source of foreign investment after Romania, Germany and France.

• A Moldovan Parliamentary Delegation held meetings in Washington DC. PAS MPs Radu Marian, Adrian Băluțel and Andrian Cheptonar, join Ambassador Vlad Kulminski for meetings with congressmen and Senators including Sen. Ted Budd (R-NC), Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Rep. Keith Self (R-TX), Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-NC), Rep. Deborah Rep. Ross (D-NC), Rep. Bill Keating (D-MA) and others. MP Radu Marian wrote of the trip:

“We are here to consolidate the partnership between our countries and strengthen the parliamentary dialogue with the US Congress. I reiterated that US support in combating Russian pressure on the Republic of Moldova has been, is and will be essential for Moldova to remain a free, democratic country and part of the free world. We share the same values ​​with the US,” (…)

“I thanked for the recent investment of 130 million dollars for the Straseni-Gutinas power line, which is to be built by an American company2. I mentioned that the Republic of Moldova is ideally positioned for American investors who want to scale production and support the reconstruction efforts of post-war Ukraine”

Khotyn Fortress Partially Collapses

Today we’re ending on a bit of a sad note with the news that the iconic Khotyn Fortress in Ukraine had a partial collapse of its outer wall. Khotyn is one of the castles and fortresses built by Stefan Cel Mare when he was Voivode of Moldavia. It’s an iconic castle that many readers will have seen before in movies and, in my case, on the cover of my 4th grade history textbook in Virginia.

Unbelievably, the collapse was caught on camera and can be viewed online here. So unbelievable was the story that the mayor of the town was forced to put out a statement saying:

“Unfortunately, it is not artificial intelligence. Yesterday (April 17, 2026), a very unpleasant and extreme emergency situation occurred in our beautiful Hotin fortress. Yes, there was a partial collapse on the great wall. And this collapse is very significant. Everyone is alive! Most importantly, no one was injured,”

The local authorities plan on restoring the wall in the future.

Lots of news happened while I was on a short vacation so today’s update is a bit long - but I really encourage you to grab a coffee and dig in because there was lots of important news.

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The State of Emergency in the Energy Sector to Continue

After initially indicating that he would ask parliament to lift the State of Emergency, Prime Minister Munteanu convened the National Crisis Management Center on April 2 and announced that the State of Emergency will continue. Following the repair of the Isaccea-Vulcănești high voltage line, the energy system remains unstable as engineers check the repair and make adjustments. At the same time, April-May is a critical time in Moldova’s energy sector as the Thermoelectric plants will soon cease central heating and return to summer mode - causing a loss of around 50% of domestic energy production.

Moreover, the authorities particularly highlighted the crisis caused by the War in Iran. With the country 100% reliant on fuel imports, the decision to maintain the State of Emergency will also let the government adapt quickly to this new and larger crisis. The temporary cease fire between the United States and Iran caused diesel prices to fall slightly, but uncertainty remains after talks in Pakistan failed to find a solution over this weekend.

Moldova’s Ministry of Defense announced that all Moldovan soldiers deployed as part of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) are safe. Moldova has 32 peacekeepers deployed in south Lebanon with UNIFIL where they are serving alongside the Italian Army.

With these crises as a backdrop, Moldova announced a major milestone in the shift to renewables this week. The country has now exceeded 1 GW of installed renewable capacity, of which 73% is solar and 25% wind. The Ministry of Energy made the announcement stating:

“In the last five years, installed capacities have increased 13.23 times. Compared to 2020, when the total installed was only 77.37 MW, there is an increase of 946.05 MW, with 2025 playing a decisive role in this evolution,”

The Government Presents their Concept for LPA Reform

Alexei Buzu, Secretary General of the Government, unveiled the high level concept for the promised Local Public Administration (LPA) reform. He announced 4 objectives for the reforms, namely:

1. Strong mayors through administrative-territorial consolidation

2. Strong mayors through increased financial autonomy

3. Strong mayors through real institutional capacity

4. Strong mayors through transparency, accessible services and involved citizens

Essentially, they hope that efforts to create larger local government units will strengthen capacity and services at the local level. In order to accomplish these goals, the government laid out 3 high level changes:

• Voluntary amalgamation. The government has set a goal that no local authority (towns and villages) should have fewer than 3000 residents by 2027. Currently, 87% of town halls have fewer than 3000 residents. Buzu noted that 310 local councils are already starting the voluntary amalgamation process. At the same time, parliament is voting on legislation to simplify this process further. The reform plan provides for financial incentives for LPAs that chose to merge. Forced mergers for those that don’t is not spelled out but is heavily implied.

• Reducing the number of districts from 32 to 10. Moldova’s 32 raions (districts) would be replaced with 10 larger districts which Buzu said would be engines of regional development - managing roads and common infrastructure.

• Elevating Taraclia to a municipality with sub-LPAs. Essentially, the town government of Taraclia would be merged with the current Raion (district) government of Taraclia. Other towns and villages in the region would retain their local government. This would make the region something of a hybrid district-municipality. This special case is likely related to local demographics (see footnote1).

Secretary General Buzu explained the 3000 resident threshold saying:

“In the Republic of Moldova, out of 10 families that do not have sewage, 8 are in municipalities with a population of less than 3,000 inhabitants. Out of 10 families that do not have a water supply connection, 7 are in municipalities with a population of less than 3,000 inhabitants. This is the reality ,”

He went on to note how important it is for LPAs to have more capacity and expertise in order to attract funding through EU accession mechanisms and to implement local projects.

Business leader Vasile Tofan2 has emerged as a major critic to the proposal which he called “much too timid” and “too small for the size of the problem.” He stated:

“Local taxes in a town hall of 3-4 thousand people barely cover about 60% of the cost of the fiscal apparatus that collects them. In other words, almost 2 out of 3 lei in taxes are expenses on tax collectors - an absurd model ,”

Tofan went on to note that Romania averages 6000 residents per LPA and that these are going bankrupt. The country is exploring a move to a minimum of 18,000 residents. He explained:

“In other words, we are deliberately undertaking a very politically costly reform, unpopular anyway, in order to amalgamate at a level that was bankrupt from the start. What is the point of these costs then?”

Recent polling from IMAS has shown that 42% of citizens disapprove of the merging of city halls compared to 22% who consider is somewhat necessary, 18% who consider it important and only 7% who consider it extremely important. 65% oppose the merging of districts while 24% were in favor. The Socialist Party has called on the government to hold a referendum on the final plan.

Recall, Moldova Matters published an op-ed from Vasile Tofan on the subject in March:

News and Politics

Here’s a roundup of the top politics stories of the week:

• On April 2 parliament formally denounced Moldova’s membership in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The degree was immediately promulgated by President Sandu. Parliament cited Russia’s failure to uphold the CIS agreement by invading Georgia and Ukraine while maintaining illegal troop deployments in Moldova. This is the biggest step so far in Moldova’s attempts to remove itself from the 1991 agreement and its many sub agreements.

• Mayor Ceban announced that his MAN party was withdrawing from the Alternative Bloc. At the same time the party will remain in the Alternative Faction in parliament. Explaining the reason he stated “We dissociate ourselves from any actions and statements that contradict the interests of the people and the course of European integration.3”

• Moldova fell in the EIU Democracy Index, published by the Economist, from a “flawed democracy” to “hybrid regime.” The index measures various factors across 167 countries and did not publicly explain the change for Moldova or detail the methodology. The news caused lots of opinions and assessments in Moldova, with opposition parties celebrating and repeating lines about PAS capturing the state. Analysts suggested that the change was likely the methodology’s failure to account for hybrid attacks and the government’s response. IPRE Director Iulian Groza explained:

“In other words, a country that actively defends itself against hybrid aggression paradoxically pays a methodological price in the index for its own defensive measures,”

• Scandal at MediaCor - Yuri Dud’s interview with Denis Kapustin. Russian YouTuber Yuri Dud interviewed the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps at the media center located on the State University campus. Kapustin is banned from the Schengen area and has been widely described as a neo-Nazi. His volunteer corps fights for Ukraine with a manifesto focused on overthrowing Putin and creating a Russian ethnostate. The Ministry of Education promised an investigation into how the interview took place at MediaCor, while the center’s management put out a statement saying that they do “not intervene in the selection of guests or in the editorial content of the materials produced” in the center.

• No Easter benefits this year. Minister of Labor and Social Protection Natalia Plugaru answered a reporters question on the topic saying that the focus was instead on winter heating compensation. Last year (an election year) more than 230,000 people benefited from one time holiday payments of between 1500 and 5000 lei. Meanwhile, Alexandr Stoianoglo proposed a bill in parliament to give an Easter Amnesty and drop all charges and fines related to electoral bribery and vote selling. While he couched the bill in religious terms, it was hard to avoid the fact that these voters were largely bribed by the Shor network to vote for him.

• PPDA connections with Shor? Vasile Costiuc’s Democracy at Home (PPDA) party announced that their candidate for Orhei Mayor this year will be Victor Perțu. This means that Unionist party PPDA is running a former senior member of the Shor party and campaigner for the Pobeda Bloc in one of the most significant mayor’s races in the country. Costiuc initially dodged questions about the nomination before giving this answer filled with confusing and unsubstantiated allegations:

“if the man is not officially banned from holding office, if he is not convicted, if he has not stolen and is not under criminal investigation, I do not see the logic in talking about a man who, what did he do? Carp and Maia Sandu participated in the theft of the billion”

• Minister of Finance Andrian Gavriliță announced that the President and Prime Minister are getting a raise. Currently President Sandu is the lowest paid head of state in Europe with a salary of just 22,000 lei / month. The Prime Minister currently earns 17,000 lei. In the last PAS term, salaries for ministers and other high level officials were raised but these top positions were skipped due to political sensitivities. The Socialists and other opposition parties regularly call for ministers to earn no more than a minimum pension. Responding to this expected criticism, the Minister of Finance stated that a “worthy country cannot pretend that politicians do not need salaries. I propose to citizens to beware of politicians who tell them that they will work even without salaries.”

International Affairs

Here’s a roundup of the top foreign policy stories of the week:

• Europe has woken up to a future without Viktor Orban. Responding to the landslide victory of pro-EU reformer Peter Magyar, President Sandu posted congratulations writing:

“Moldova looks forward to accelerating our partnership with Hungary — building on the friendship that unites our people — and to working together for a stronger, more united, resilient Europe.”

• US Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) visited Chisinau on a working trip. The ranking member of the US Senate Armed Services Committee met with President Sandu and discussed the regional security situation, EU integration and joint US-Moldovan projects.

• A group of opposition MPs traveled to Georgia to meet with parliamentary factions and the Georgian Dream government. The group included Igor Dodon, 2 other socialist MPs, an MP from Alternative and Vasile Costiuc of PPDA. PAS and Our Party declined to join the delegation. Following meetings, Igor Dodon suggested that Georgia’s political situation4 “is a good example, which Moldova should follow.”

Transnistria and Security News

Here’s a roundup of the top security stories of the week:

• Mihail Podoleak, advisor to President Zelenskyy, confirmed that mines were placed on some parts of the border with Transnistria. He explained that this was a precaution against Russia being tempted to use the region to conduct strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and logistics.

• On April 3 another Russian drone entered Moldovan airspace before returning to Ukraine.

• The “authorities” in Tiraspol premiered a new “documentary” titled “The Transnistrian People: Forged Over the Centuries.” The propaganda film, largely made with AI, sought to position the “Transnistrian people” at the center of various major historical events in Europe.

• Former Transnistrian official Ruslan Mova was denied entry into Moldova. Mova is the former head of the region’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and was one of 9 regional officials stripped of their Moldovan citizenship by President Sandu in February. The motivation for Mova was his direction of, and participation in, the imprisonment of political prisoners and repression against the population. He left Chisinau on a Ukrainian passport and was stopped on March 30 trying to renter the country. With Moldova controlling 100% of the active “border crossings” into Transnistria, this means that officials who lose their citizenship due to human rights abuses risk either being trapped in the region, or trapped outside of it.

• Ion Chirița and Nikita Sirenko were convicted and sentenced in relation to their participation in training camps in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The men were part of Shor’s efforts to prepare for mass riots and violent demonstrations around the 2024 presidential elections. In particular, they were trained in piloting and using military style drones and making explosives and incendiary devices. The men admitted their action but claimed they were patsies for others. Ion Chirița was sentenced to 3 years in prison, suspended, and Nikita Sirenko was sentenced to 3.5 years with 3 years suspended. Sirenko, a Finnish citizen, will be expelled from Moldova at the end of his sentence.

• The US Department of Justice alongside European partners including Ukraine and Romania dismantled a worldwide network of infected home routers. The hack, directed by Russia’s GRU, used DNS poisoning to monitor traffic and create phony websites in order to capture login details and monitor messaging and emails. If you want to read more about this tactic, and how it was used to attack Moldova’s elections, see my recent report:

Economics and Infrastructure

Here’s a roundup of the top economic stories of the week:

• Moody’s has upgraded Moldova’s credit rating from B3 to B2. This is the highest credit rating for the country in 25 years. The company cited ongoing reforms, progress on EU accession and a “demonstrated an increased capacity to respond to shocks” - noting particularly the pivot away from Russian energy, efforts which they say have “contributed to an overall reduction in Moldova’s political event risk from previously very high levels.” New reports show that Moldova’s external debt was €10.11 billion euros as of December 31, 2025. This is up 2.4% since 2024 but down 2.7% as a percent of GDP. The vast majority of these loans are long term and at favorable interest rates from the IMF (27%), World Bank (26%), European Commission (15%), EBRD (7.8%) and others.

• The Ministry of Finance will delay VAT taxes on small imports until Fall. The imposition of VAT on parcels under €150 euros was planned to come into effect in July but has now been moved with a planned testing period in September and full implementation in October.

• Parliament is working to replace the Prima Casa (First House) program. High demand has led to the year’s funds for the program already being depleted on April 1st. Prima Casa is a subsidized preferential mortgage program with lower rates and a minimum down payment. The program will continue through banks, but government funds for additional subsidies for first home buyers are depleted. Critics of the program and its expansion under the last parliament say that it created demand for housing exceeding the supply resulting in a run up in pricing. That happened, and now the real estate market has essentially stalled with Q1 sales down 80% year on year. Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on the Economy, Budget and Finance, Radu Marian stated that the program “must be replaced with a mechanism that will stimulate the construction of new affordable apartments, rather than create pressure on the market through increased demand.” This new mechanism to encourage the construction of affordable housing will be announced soon.

• Parliament has introduced a draft law to eliminate tariffs on American goods. The law would have exceptions for local products including beef, pork, poultry and dairy. Speaker Grosu presented it as a “reciprocal gesture5” for the US dropping tariffs on Moldova from 25% to 10%, and spoke about the substantial support provided to Moldova from the United States including in energy infrastructure.

Crime, Corruption and Justice Reform

On March 31st anti-corruption police (CNA) and Anti-Corruption Prosecutors announced the detention of 4 police employees and 1 prosecutor for:

“complicity in passive corruption, manifested by the illicit demand of 400 thousand dollars for the settlement of a criminal case .”

Allegedly the accused demanded this bribe to sway the outcome of an undisclosed money laundering case. Newsmaker reported that other officers of the police unit, the National Investigation Inspectorate (INI), felt that their fellow officers were being detained on flimsy evidence. Many officers attempted to join the preliminary court hearings but were not let in. There were rumors that members of the INI resigned en-masse, but the Ministry of Internal Affairs responded saying that “There were dissatisfactions. We worked with the management team, both of the INI and the IGP. Today, this team is intact.”

Details on the alleged bribery are scant so we’ll return to this story as it develops.

On March 28 Moldova’s Minister of Energy announced that the high voltage line struck during Russia’s attack on the March 23 was fully repaired. This followed a difficult few days with the country coming very close to instituting rolling blackouts on March 27 due to challenges purchasing enough import capacity.

Minister of Energy Dorin Junghietu, speaking to ZdG stated, that this “was a deliberate attack” and provided more information on the target saying:

“We have seen several photos, but they cannot be made public, because they are sensitive information and would expose more than they should, but one of the critical pillars of this line was deliberately attacked with several drones. They knew very well where to hit, where they wanted to hit.”

He put the attack in the context of the recent “accident or attack at the hydroelectric power plant in Ukraine, which polluted our Dniester River” strongly implying that Russia was targeting infrastructure in Ukraine what would necessarily have a knock-on effect in Moldova. He described the high voltage line pillar targeted as “critical” and also hard to repair. This is partly because it is in a remote location in the Danube delta region that is inaccessible for heavy equipment if the ground is wet from rain.

While the acute phase of the emergency has passed, this vulnerability remains. The Minister has pledged to complete the works on the Vulcănești – Chișinău power line by May, but noted that it will not protect from this specific targeting as a small part of the line will still pass through Ukraine1.

Kremlin disinformation campaigns targeted the country’s vulnerability, with Russian state media reporting on the problem - but not the cause - and social media campaigns blaming it on “incompetence of the government.” Socialist MP Bogdan Țîrdea and fugitive former Shor Party MP Marina Tauber called the State of Emergency a fiction designed to create fear and take away personal liberties.

A main narrative is also that Moldova should restart purchases of electricity from the MGRES power plant in Transnistria - currently impractical if not impossible2. Socialist MPs Igor Dodon and Zinaida Greceanîi traveled to Moscow on a “short-term working visit” to discuss energy supply and blame the PAS government for not purchasing energy from Russia / MGRES.

The government announced that it plans to ask parliament to lift the State of Emergency next week after the repaired line is fully tested and certified. The Ministry of Foriegn Affairs also announced that they plan to seek compensation from Russia for the damage3.

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Iran Energy Crisis

While the high voltage line strike was an acute crisis, the much bigger crisis facing Moldova is the energy crisis caused by the United States’ and Israel’s war against Iran. Prices continue to rise with diesel now 56.3% more expensive than when the war began and gasoline 25.7% more expensive. As of March 30th fuel stocks provide for 17 days of supply for gasoline, 7 days for diesel and 16 days for LPG. While imports are continuing as normal there are substantial worries across Europe of shortages if the war continues much longer.

On March 26 the government met in extraordinary session and has begun implementing response measures including:

• The National Energy Regulatory Agency (ANRE) will update its formula for calculating standard diesel price limits. Previously the formula relied on a 14 day average of purchase prices, now it will use a 7 day average. This will allow prices to rise more quickly and prevent gas stations from closing en-masse when the purchase price exceeds the allowed retail price.

• If gas stations run out of standard diesel, they are required to sell premium diesel at the standard price.

• Lukoil is allowed to purchase supplies on the local market to supply their stations. This rule does not allow them to restart imports or violate other aspects of American sanctions, but is designed to expand the number of operating gas stations during the crisis.

• Regulated fare prices for bus and mini-bus routes will be updated weekly according to price rises.

• Fuel importers are required to present their April plans to the government and are prohibited from importing less fuel in April than they did in March.

Reactions and Analysis

Moldova’s Union of Transporters and Road Workers (UTA) called the initial 16% increase in bus and mini-bus fares “a superficial measure that does not solve the root of the problem.” They blamed the government for imposing a regulated market but not taking responsibility via subsidies for a crisis. The association is calling for 0% VAT rate on fuel for transport operators, deferred tax payments for new vehicle imports, direct subsidies via travel vouchers for vulnerable passengers (pensioners, students, etc) and more. They also noted that the “disastrous state of district and inter-district roads” following Moldova’s harshest winter in a decade is another hidden tax on them as they struggle to maintain and repair their vehicles.

UTA and farmers are among the first groups to face stress from this crisis but certainly not the last. Experts interviewed by ZdG painted a bleak economic picture and few solutions for the government. Eugen Muravschi from Watchdog explained that the biggest issue is diesel which is used for agriculture and transit. He noted that Moldova’s excise taxes on fuel are already low - more than 2x lower than the European norm - which leaves very little room to cut. These taxes also fund road repair and after last winter the road network is a mess. A VAT cut for all fuel sales would be too damaging for the budget, but he suggested that targeted measures for farmers and transport operators might help.

Adrian Lupusor director of the think-tank Expert-Grup presented an analysis showing a real economic crisis may be coming. He wrote:

“If the oil crisis persists or intensifies, prices at $120–$140 per barrel could reduce Moldova’s GDP by 10 percentage points due to rising import prices, production costs, and consumer prices. This could lead to an economic recession of approximately -5% in 2026 and a continued shock into 2027,”

He noted that Moldova is more vulnerable than its neighbors because fuel imports account for a high percentage of all imports at 15.9%. His analysis indicates that the inflation caused by fuel prices should mostly be absorbed by the coming economic recession4.

Analysis: The Bigger Picture

Naturally, Kremlin disinformation networks are spreading narratives blaming the government, or sometimes Romania, for the shortages. They are likely trying to plant useful stories now in the hopes that some take root when the crisis spreads from the pump to the wider economy in the coming weeks and months.

The success of that campaign seems doubtful. More than any economic crisis in living memory this crisis can clearly be attributed to one man - Donald Trump. Americans worried about $4 / gallon gas may not realize that Europe is now facing $7 - $8 / gallon rates5 - numbers that are expected to rise sharply if this war continues.

That’s the best case scenario. Politico reports multiple European leaders describing sleepless nights as they try and deal with an oil supply shock larger than that of 1973, 1979 and the war in Ukraine combined. Leaders are now contemplating options for “demand destruction” including drive-free Sundays, gas rationing and similar approaches.

While polls show that Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of this war, I don’t get the impression that they widely understand how enraged Europeans are. In a recent podcast from Pod Save America, Jon Lovett described Trump’s negotiations with Iran as 2 people playing chicken after the cars have already crashed head on - just shouting at each other over blown airbags. In that analogy, Europe (and even more so East Asia) are like collateral roadkill that neither party noticed except when Trump somehow blames them for the crash. The war has seriously threatened NATO’s cohesion, been a massive boon to the Russian war effort and threatens huge and lasting harm to the continent’s economies.

With no end in sight, this war is upending the global security and economic order - and small countries like Moldova have very few ways to insulate themselves from the damage.

If you’re interested in a more comprehensive analysis of the European vs American perspectives on this war, I recommend the most recent episode of The Rest is Politics Podcast.

International Affairs & Security

Here’s a roundup of the top international affairs and security news of the week:

• President Sandu made the first official visit of a Moldovan head of state to Slovakia. There she signed agreements on promoting joint investments and on deepening security cooperation. The President thanked Slovakia for assisting both in the Nistru river cleanup and in supporting the provision of electricity during the recent crisis. She highlighted both crises as examples of how “Ukraine’s resilience matters far beyond Ukraine itself. It is essential for Moldova’s security and for European security as a whole.”

• Speaker of Parliament Igor Grosu attended the 4th anniversary of the Bucha massacre in Ukraine. In the 22 days that the Kyiv suburb was occupied, ending on March 31, 2022, Russia committed more than 9000 war crimes and murdered more than 1700 civilians. Writing about the event Speaker Grosu stated:

“It’s been four years since the massacre in the city of Bucea, one of the towns in the suburbs of Kiev, which experienced unimaginable atrocities from the Russian army. I was there four years ago. I saw it. And you can’t forget it. Today, together with other European leaders, we commemorated the victims of that massacre,”

• Transnistria further delays salary payments. In June 2025 the regional “authorities” began splitting salary payments into 2 installments6 allowing for the second half of the payment to come at the end of the following month. This has now been pushed back further until the 9th of the next month. This delaying tactic is essentially a zero interest loan from workers to their employer and, while it can buy time, it does not materially change the conditions causing the crisis.

• On March 31 another drone entered Moldovan airspace. The Shahed drone was tracked on Ukrainian radar as it flew over Transnistria for around 7 minutes before returning to Ukraine.

• Ukraine has announced new security measures on their border with Transnistria. The Ukrainian army has announced that the border is now “heavily mined” and that they are in the process of installing barbed wire and autonomous video warning systems. They have also announced the deployment of additional mechanized troops to strengthen the defenses.

Politics

Here’s a roundup of the top politics stories of the week:

• Parliament has accepted the resignation of PAS MP Nicolae Botgros. The famous composer previously announced his resignation because he felt forced to choose between politics and music due to laws around side-jobs. Opposition MP Renato Usatii proposed an amendment of these laws to allow musicians, actors and athletes to continue with their careers while in parliament. Currently, only academic jobs are allowed for sitting MPs. Speaker Igor Grosu supported the idea and suggested that parliament study loosening the rules, noting that Moldova has far stricter compatibility rules than other countries in the region including Romania.

• The EU delegation announced that the Chisinau-Ungheni rail line would be the first electrified railway in the country. It will be rebuilt on European rail guage and allow for travel of up to 140 km / h. The Ministry of Infrastructure has previously announced that the first phase of this project will connect downtown Chisinau to the Eugen Doga International Airport.

• Irina Vlah had a wonderful birthday. The opposition politician declared 423,000 lei in cash birthday gifts for her recent 51st birthday. These came from dozens of people - family, former employees, party members and even a former interim president of the Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ). This birthday haul exceeded 2 times her annual salary. Moldovan birthday traditions are really very strict - you buy all of your friends and family dinner and drinks and they give you gifts - which are very rarely cash. When you become a (certain type of) politician, suddenly, lots of cash gifts. What a wonderful tradition.

Crime & Corruption

Here are the top justice sector stories of the week:

• Justice reform is progressing, but judges are under heavy pressure. That was the takeaway this week from the General Assembly of Judges convened by the Superior Council of Magistracy. Guest speakers included President Sandu and European Commissioner for Democracy, Justice, the Rule of Law and Consumer Protection, Michael McGrath who spoke on justice reform. A report on 2025 activity showed that judges are now averaging 103.7 cases per month, a 24.3% increase from 2024. The removal of judges who fail vetting has continued to increase pressure on those who remain.

• Veaceslav Platon’s trial hasn’t had a hearing in a year. The last hearing in the case of “fraud and money laundering in particularly large proportions” was heard in March 2025 as judges have repeatedly accepted requests for delays due to Platon’s lawyer being on sick leave. Platon is scheduled to have his UK extradition hearing from May 11 - 13, after his lawyers there successfully delayed it from its originally scheduled November 2025 dates. Platon has been out on bail in the UK since July 2025.

Ending on a High Note

Moldovan musician Sergei Stepanov, known as “Epic Sax Guy,” appeared on Britain’s Got Talent, getting “yes” votes from all 4 judges. Simon Cowell liked the performance, but seemed genuinely baffled as to who this strange dancing saxophone player was. Not so with Rapper judge Olajide Olayinka Williams (KSI), who is apparently a mega-fan and basically went crazy while the performance was happening.

Epic Sax Guy became a household name across Europe after competing in Eurovision in 2017 for Moldova with the band SunStroke Project. Their performance of “Hey Mamma” got 3rd place, which was frankly a crime as they were far better than the top 2.

If you want to put a smile on your face, here’s the Britain’s Got Talent appearance:

…and here’s Hey Mamma from 2017

…and here’s Moldova’s delightfully insane and genuinely fun 2026 Eurovision entry

Ok, that’s much better than economic crisis and war. I hope it cheered you up as much as it did me.

“Please pay special attention to air raid signals today. There are intelligence reports that Russian forces may be preparing a massive attack. Appropriate instructions for our air defense forces have already been issued. Please take care of yourselves and Ukraine ,”

There was a massive attack with Russian drones overnight as well as a major daytime attack on March 24th. In total Russia launched more than 1000 drones against Ukraine including Shaheds and Gerbers1. Ukrainian air defense shot down 541 drones but 15 got through and scored hits.

At 7:15 pm on March 23rd residents in Chisinau noticed the lights briefly go out and then flicker back on. In the morning the Ministry of Energy announced that the key high-voltage line between Isaccea (Romania) - Vulcănești (Moldova) had been hit and damaged. They wrote:

“On the evening of March 23, at around 7:15 p.m., due to Russian attacks on the territory of Ukraine, our energy infrastructure, the property of the Republic of Moldova, was affected. What happened? Several “Shahed” drones targeted our energy infrastructure. And as we see in this picture, this is the effect.“

Understanding the Infrastructure Situation

On January 31st, 2025 most of Moldova lost power due to “serious problems in the Ukrainian power grid” that caused a massive voltage drop on the Isaccea-Vulcăneşti-MGRES high voltage line - which triggered automatic disconnections. At the time I wrote a detailed overview of the key infrastructure and I recommend re-reading that article for context. In short, Moldova gets up to 60% of its power from Romania via a line that runs from Isaccea in Romania through Ukraine to Vulcăneşti in Moldova and then back and forth across the Moldovan-Ukrainian border before it meets the MGRES power plant in Transnistria. From there the power line runs to Chisinau.

The damage on March 23rd was to a particularly critical section of that power line between Isaccea and Vulcăneşti which also runs through Ukraine. You can see the whole system on the map on the left as well as an illustration of the part targeted on the map on the right below.

Moldova has been working to create its own direct connection to Romanian power via the Vulcăneşti - Chisinau high voltage line that was supposed to be completed in December but is running behind schedule. That line would allow Moldova to bypass Transnistria BUT critically not fully avoid transiting Ukrainian territory. It would still require the small segment Isaccea-Vulcăneşti which was targeted.

At the time of writing we do not know if this was intentionally targeted by Russia or if it was accidentally hit by a drone targeting the Ukrainian port of Remi (either off-course or shot down). We do know that this was the first Russian attack directly on Moldovan owned critical infrastructure in this war.

State of Emergency

On March 24th Prime Minister Munteanu convened the National Crisis Management Center and requested that parliament be called into extraordinary session to declare a state of emergency. He stated:

“Crash drones were identified in the immediate vicinity of the affected infrastructure, which imposes access restrictions for technical teams and the need to carry out demining works to fully allow the necessary intervention and in safe conditions,”

Parliament was convened on March 24th and held a debate on declaring a State of Emergency in the Energy sector for the next 60 days. Prime Minister Munteanu explained the gravity of the situation saying:

“The 4 interconnection lines with Romania have been activated, but the situation remains complicated. Starting tomorrow, the estimated deficit will reach 350-400 MW during peak hours. Chain disconnections, as you can deduce, remain very possible. We cannot rule out new attacks, we cannot wait,”

The these interconnections mean that the country is maintaining electricity through emergency “island connections” via smaller 110 kV lines. I explained island connections in the January article I referenced above.

The Minister of Energy estimated that repairs could take 5-7 days. The reason is that explosive materials remain on the site and army sappers have to make it safe before technicians can affect the repairs. There is also the risk of continued attacks on the line.

The State of Emergency was passed with 72 votes in favor, 18 abstentions and 0 against. Igor Dodon explained that the Socialists refused to vote for the bill because their suggestion that Moldova start buying power from the MGRES plant again were not taken into account (I’ll explain why this makes no sense in a footnote2).

Following the declaration of the State of Emergency, the government issued a series of orders and recommendations as follows:

• Called on all users to minimize electrical consumption during peak hours (6 am - 9 am and 5 pm - 11 pm). They warn against the use of elevators in this time in case of outages.

• Mandated that Thermoelectric plants in Balti and Chisinau have been instructed to produce at full capacity.

• Called on public and commercial buildings to reduce light by 30% and refrain from using decorative and advertising lights.

• Called on industrial activities to schedule operations outside of peak hours.

• Mandated export and re-export restrictions on petroleum products until a stockpile of 5,000 tons of gasoline and 25,000 tons of diesel are stored.

• Accelerated import processes for fuels.

• Restricted gas station purchases in containers to 20L jerrycans.

• Instructed grid operators to prioritize hospitals and critical infrastructure in case of shortages and resort to rolling blackouts as a last resort.

Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban called on city residents to conserve power and he condemned the “the war and Russia’s attacks on Ukraine.” He announced plans to move schools to online education and suspend trolleybus routes if there are major shortages.

On March 25th the National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE) met to approve a decrease in electricity prices, but postponed the move for the duration of the State of Emergency.

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The Other Energy Crisis

This new State of Emergency replaces last week’s State of Alert which was called to respond to America and Israel’s war against Iran. Fuel prices continue to increase in response to the global supply shock with prices for gasoline now 23.74% higher than before the war and for diesel 49.3% higher.

This has caused the Employers’ Association of Auto Transport Operators (APOTA) to announce that “an enormous number of regular district and inter-district trips [bus and mini-bus routes] will be suspended, and their number could reach 80% of the total number.” The prices of bus tickets are regulated and the association claims that the National Road Transport Agency (ANTA) is not raising prices fast enough to keep routes profitable.

On March 23rd President Sandu convened the National Security Council (NSC) and after meeting warned that prices will continue to rise. She stated:

“All of the energy shocks, despite the measures we have taken—and because we do not have oil, because we do not have natural gas—are clearly affecting us through rising prices, both at the household level and across economic sectors. We will continue to monitor the situation, and our hope is that this crisis will end sooner rather than later, but we must also prepare for the worst-case scenarios

We have a pricing formula, or a price formation mechanism, that assumes a slower transition to market prices—over a period of 14 days—and this helps us, to some extent, avoid extreme volatility. However, this does not mean that prices will not eventually reach global market levels,”

Right now prices in Moldova remain lower than those in Romania and much of the region because of this 14 day transition period. Across Europe many countries have different levels of market responsiveness to rapid price changes which has led to drivers crossing borders to fill up in other states and countries like Hungary to create differentiated prices for citizens vs foreigners.

President Sandu went on to speak about support mechanisms for farmers, but noted that the only long term options is increased adoption of renewables. Indeed, without Moldova’s hard pivot to wind and solar it is likely the country would already face substantial rolling blackouts.

President Sandu concluded saying:

“So, I repeat, we are monitoring the situation, and it is a worrying one. I will say this plainly: it is a very worrying situation if things do not stabilize, if prices do not stabilize in the coming weeks,”

Nistru Oil Spill Updates

On March 19th Prime Minister Munteanu announced that water supplies were being reconnected for Balti, Soroca, Singerei and Floresti. He stated:

“I know that these days have been difficult. Thank you for your patience. I also thank the teams in the field who worked non-stop so that people have water. The interventions at the Cosăuți station and in the localities have yielded results. The supply is being resumed in stages, with strict control at each stage. The installed filters remain in operation, and the teams remain in the field for continuous monitoring and rapid intervention, if necessary”

This outcome was achieved via a massive cleanup effort by many parts of the Moldovan state including the National Army. It was supported by Romania and donations from EU partners including Poland and Belgium. Many filters and dams were installed along the river which allowed for the water feeding these towns and regions to return to safe levels.

On March 25th Minister of Environment Gheorghe Hajder posted a video from Ukraine where he was checking on the origin of the spill. He explained that the origin of the leak (still unnamed) had been stopped and no more oil was entering the river. He explained that small slicks may still be seen working their way down the river but with the containment mechanisms in place and the source of the problem stopped the crisis was ending.

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Politics & General News

Here’s a roundup of the other top stories of the week:

• Parliament voted for the final denunciation of Moldova’s participation in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The bill passed in the first reading 58-28. Moldova joined the CIS after it was created in Minsk in January 1993 along with many former Soviet Republics. Moldova has slowly been disentangling itself from various multilateral aspects of the CIS since 2022.

• Ion Ceban claims that the Nistru oil spill was not real. The mayor claimed that without official test results he did not believe what the government was saying and alleged that it was all a 2 pronged conspiracy. First, to distract from rising gasoline and diesel prices, second, to “introduce a foreign operator to provide water and sewerage services in the north of the country.”

• Invest Moldova has begun a major promotion campaign on the BBC. The campaign, titled “Moldova – a Trustful3 Partner for Export,” plans to air 250 TV broadcast commercials on BBC news from February through April. They are targeting 5 million views. You can see one of the videos on youtube here.

• PAS MP Nicolae Botgros has resigned from parliament. The famous conductor and artistic director of the National Folk Music Orchestra “Lăutarii” had run in 11th place on the PAS list. He has publicly struggled with a transition to politics and has been accused of incompatibly splitting his time by continuing some performances. This month RISE posted an investigation into a real estate deal that Lăutarii was involved in which began as a public project for a music school and ended as an apartment building. Nicolae Botgros denied wrongdoing, and it isn’t clear if the investigation prompted his resignation. Asked to comment on his resignation he simply said “where is art, where is politics, they are far apart.” At the beginning of this Spring 2026 parliamentary session he had previously promised to remain in parliament “until they take him with his feet to the other side.” He joins an unusually high number of MPs who ran on the PAS list only to leave parliament very early in their term.

Plahotniuc Will be Sentenced on April 22nd

This date was set by the court after hearing closing arguments from the prosecution and defense. The case involves his role in the theft of $1 billion dollars from 3 Moldovan banks. In their closing arguments the prosecution requested a 25 year jail sentence - the maximum allowed. The defense called for an acquittal and accused both the prosecutors and the judges4 of not acting neutrally in the trial. Plahotniuc himself took the stand on the final day to speak in favor of his innocence. The court will proclaim guilt or innocence and announce the sentence on April 22nd.

March 7th strikes on the Dniester Hydroelectric Station in Ukraine have resulted in an environmental crisis in Moldova. The strikes began the process of a spillage of technical oil into the Nistru river which has since flowed downstream and threatened the water supplies for much of Moldova’s Northeast.

By March 11th the city of Balti was forced to cut off drinking water as oil reached the pumping station and water tests showed high levels of contamination. By March 13th Moldovan, Ukrainian and Romanian teams were working to contain the oil using oil containment booms and other containment technologies. Minister of Environment, Gheorghe Hajder traveled to Soroca to monitor the situation and Prime Minister Munteanu dispatched the army to assist with cleanup and containment. He also requested the activation of the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism “for the rapid mobilization of teams of specialists and the equipment necessary to manage the situation on the ground.” The Prime Minister later traveled to Soroca himself to monitor the situation.

There he stated:

“Together with the Minister of the Environment, Gheorghe Hajder, we are in Soroca to monitor the situation on the ground. (…) Additional filters are being installed, and straw bales are being used in the water – an effective method for retaining petroleum substances. In parallel, the mobile laboratory is taking samples from the field every six hours to constantly monitor the water quality.”

Following this visit the government approved a 15 day “State of Alert” regarding the oil spill. This frees up some resources to prevent the situation from escalating, while falling short of being a full State of Emergency declaration.

Over the last few days large parts of the North of Moldova have been cut off from their water supplies. Supplies were suspended in Naslavcea, in the districts of Soroca, Florești, Sîngerei and in the Balti municipality. Chisinau’s water authorities have been installing protective dams around the Vadul lui Vodă pumping station.

Villages and towns are relying on their wells and in many cases are rushing to clean older wells and put them back into use. The most acute problems are in the city of Balti which has moved to remote schooling and called for help supplying emergency water. Balti Mayor Alexandru Petkov announced that the city of Iași in Romania was sending a humanitarian convoy of water trucks. Additionally the Moldovan Army has sent trucks and is distributing water to people in affected areas. As of March 17th more than 95 tons of drinking and technical water had been transported to Balti for distribution.

Minister Hajder has stated that the Ukrainian authorities have not explained what caused the oil leak. He stated:

“As soon as we learned of Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, we requested official information; we even had a telephone conversation. I was told that several engines were damaged. We don’t know exactly what happened because these hydroelectric power plants are under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Energy and are protected by martial law,”

He said that they promised more information soon. It remains unclear how long the cleanup will last or whether it will force water disruptions in Chisinau, which relies on the Nistru river for 98% of its water supply.

Moldova’s Ministry of Foriegn Affairs summoned Russia’s Ambassador-Designate1 Oleg Ozerov to issue a formal condemnation of the attack against the hydroelectric plant. At the meeting, the Ambassador-Designate was “gifted” with a bottle of oily water from the Nistru.

As of March 17th Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban has stated that no water outages are expected in Chisinau at this time. He claimed that his team is testing the water hourly and leveled criticism at the government for mishandling the situation in Balti. He demanded transparent testing results and suggested that technical water should continue to be supplied to the city.

Minister of the Environment, Gheorghe Hajder responded with a video where he called the mayor’s statements “extremely irresponsible.” He noted that city hall is able to test the water for pH, not for oil - and therefore the tests Ceban is touting are useless. He also noted that the supply of technical water is a bad idea saying:

“⁠The mayor orders us to provide technical water to Bălți. A dangerous and, again, irresponsible request. How does the mayor guarantee that no child or elderly person or any resident will accidentally drink the water that the mayor proposes to turn on in the taps. Moreover, if we now provide water to the supply network, knowing that it has petroleum substances in it, we will poison the network.”

The Minister went on to note that oily water pumped into the system could take months to clean out.

Iran War Crisis

Moldova continues to feel the aftershocks of the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf as fuel prices continue to rise. Compared to prices before the American-Israeli attack on Iran, prices for gasoline have increased 16.4% at the pump and for diesel 36.1%. The National Energy Regulatory Agency (ANRE) sets maximum prices daily based on a formula that tracks the Platts average (S&P Global) and then factors in merchant margins and taxes. These rates are climbing at an accelerating rate as market uncertainty grows.

Minister of Energy Dorin Junghietu has sought to calm consumers, explaining that imports of fuel are continuing as normal and that the country maintains stocks of 22 days of LPG, 12 days of gasoline and 11 of diesel2. The Minister has called on people to purchase only what they need and avoid hoarding fuel. He noted that while the legislation in force does not permit rationing, he is calling on people to be responsible and noting that gas stations filling illegal containers will be fined.

This Ministry has also been promoting their e-Carburanti (e-Fuels) website which shows the prices of fuel and availability at all gas stations in Moldova in real time. They are promoting the site in an attempt to prevent additional runs on gas stations.

The rising fuel costs are already forcing the government to make difficult decisions. Prime Minister Munteanu has called on all departments in the government to economize. He stated:

“In a tense international economic context and with increasing pressures on energy and fuel prices, the state must set the first example of financial discipline and responsibility towards public money.

Non-critical purchases will be reduced by at least 10%, and expenses for official transportation and the number of transport units will be reduced by at least 20%.

Public resources must be concentrated where they are truly needed: in infrastructure, in the functioning of essential state services and in maintaining economic stability,”

The Ministry of Agriculture has announced tax support policies for farmers seeking to buy diesel ahead of the planting season, and Chisinau Mayor Ceban announced that city hall lost millions of lei over the last 2 weeks due to rising prices.

Moldova Gets Nightly Drone Overflights

Since March 14th there have been numerous reports of Shahed or “Shahed like” drones crossing into Moldovan airspace. One crossed into Moldova on the night of the 14th and then subsequently left the airspace. Another on the 16-17th which crash landed in a field near Tudora and another on 17-18th which exited the airspace and was shot down over Ukraine.

Addressing the second drone, President Sandu stated:

“The Russian drone discovered today in the village of Tudora, Moldova, was assessed as carrying explosives. This is a gross violation of our airspace and a threat to our citizens. Russia systematically violates our sovereignty and puts the lives of our people at risk,”

This drone was a Shahed and was subsequently destroyed by Moldovan sappers in a controlled explosion.

Foriegn Affairs

Here’s a roundup of the top foreign affairs stories of the week:

• President Sandu visited Vilnius Lithuania on the occasion of the 36th anniversary of the restoration of Lithuanian independence. On her trip she met with the country’s President Gitanas Nausėda as well as other senior leaders. They discussed Moldova’s EU aspirations, common security threats and bilateral relations. Speaking of Lithuania’s support for Moldova President Sandu stated that "In Brussels, within the European Council and in every room where our accession is discussed, Lithuania is a reliable friend.” President Sandu also addressed the Lithuanian Parliament where she noted that the 1939 Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact sealed the fates of both countries saying "We simply found ourselves in an empire that we had never chosen." She spoke of Lithuania’s leadership as the first country to declare independence from Soviet Occupation and how Moldova was the first country to recognize that - even as Moldova remained officially part of the Soviet Union itself.

• The Bucharest Court of Appeal rejected Ion Ceban’s appeal against his ban on entering Romanian (and thereby the Schengen area). Mayor Ceban promised to appeal further in the courts. Vasile Tarlev and Natalia Morari have also appealed their bans and the cases are in the lower courts.

• The European Commission dispersed €189 million euros under the Reform and Growth Facility for Moldova. The decision recognizes Moldova’s implementation of 24 reform milestones and according to the Commission “This highlights the significant progress the country has made in advancing on its path to EU accession.” According to Prime Minister Munteanu:

“The money will be directed towards important projects for citizens: in the energy sector, to advance the construction of the regional hospital in Balti, to expand access to drinking water in several localities, to develop childcare services and support for young people entering the labor market. Moldova invests in people, and these projects will bring better conditions throughout the country,”

Politics - June 21st Elections in Gagauzia(?)

The People’s Assembly of Gagauzia held 2 extraordinary meetings on March 17th in order to deal with the region’s political crisis. Recall, the mandates of the representatives to the assembly expired last year and elections were scheduled for March 22nd. This has not happened because of a dispute between Comrat and Chisinau over the name of the autonomous region’s electoral body. Gagauzia calls it the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) while Chisinau says that constitutionally there is only one Central Electoral Commission (CEC) and that therefore the Gagauz body is the Central Electoral Council (CEC). Due to the expired mandates of the people’s assembly, and a recent law prohibiting legislation during the lame duck, they are unable to change the name (even if they were willing).

On March 17th the People’s Assembly tried to solve the impasse when they passed a resolution appointing 9 members titled “On Approving the Composition of the CEC.” They finally passed this resolution, and set the election date for June 21st, after many arguments - including a debate around whether this date was too close to the June 22nd anniversary of Nazi Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union.

The clever “everyone can see the acronym that they want” fudge may not be enough. Last week the Ministry of Justice appealed to the Constitutional Court (CC) asking for a review of the constitutionality of the region running its own elections at all. Therefore the first extraordinary meeting ended and everyone moved across the street to a larger venue for a second meeting. This one included guests like Igor Dodon and Irina Vlah and lots of discussion about how bad Chisinau is and some debate about whether they should even be negotiating with parliament at all. In the end, this meeting voted on a resolution calling on the Ministry of Justice with withdraw their appeal to the CC, and a second resolution appealing to Putin and Erdogan for mediation.

It remains completely unclear when the Gagauz elections will actually take place.

Crime & Corruption

Here’s a roundup of the top justice sector stories of the week:

• Dmitri Vartic is officially a suspect in his wife, Liudmila Vartic’s suicide. This was confirmed by Minister of Internal Affairs Daniella Misail-Nichitin. The authorities have questioned more than 30 people as they investigate the very public allegations of abuse, but no more details have been released. Dmitri Vartic has rejected accusations of abuse and has begun making police complaints against people he claims are defaming him.

• Anti Corruption Prosecutors have accused former Moldovan Ambassador to Sweden, Norway, Finland and Iceland (one post), Liliana Guțan, of embezzlement. They accuse her of falsifying accounting records and using public money for personal expenses to the tune of 275,927 lei. Guțan denies the accusation and claims that they are a political conspiracy to remove her from her post (she was removed in April 2025).

• Updates on alleged serial killer Stepan Găină. After a psychological evaluation the court found Găină to be sane and fit to stand trial. The investigation is ongoing but police report that they have finished the DNA examination of human remains. Publicly, the authorities have suggested that there are up to 6 victims killed by Găină and fed to his pigs.

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Like the rest of Europe, Moldovans have spent the last week watching the unfolding war against Iran and trying to figure out the basics. Why? why now? and what does this mean for us? While the first 2 questions seem as opaque now as they were the first day, the question about the impact on Moldova and the rest of Europe is becoming more clear.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to skyrocketing oil prices. With Gulf states unable to load oil and LPG onto tankers they have filled up their storage and begun gradually shutting down production. The longer the war lasts the harder it will be to restart this production. With analysis saying that this is already the largest oil shock in history (with the potential to dwarf 1973 and 1979) it is clear that the crisis could have a long tail.

Russia has emerged as an early winner in this war as the rising price of oil replenishes their exhausted war chest and the Trump Administration begins “temporarily” dropping sanctions against Russian energy. Meanwhile, peace negotiations in Ukraine have frozen as the real estate investors tasked with finding peace have refocused their efforts on the Middle East.

Incredibly, the United States and Gulf nations expended more Patriot Missile interceptors in 3 days than have been used by Ukraine since 2022. The US has long argued that it needed to limit the provision or sale of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine so that the country could maintain stocks for a potential conflict with China. Now, with US stocks rapidly depleting and Arab Gulf states running dangerously low on interceptors, they have turned to Ukrainian experts to help them with a more cost effective drone and missile defense.

None of this is good for Ukraine that it itself dangerously low on interceptor missiles. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has said that it is “not concerned” about reports that Russia is aiding Iran in targeting American ships and bases.

Moldova Braces for an Oil Shock

Right now Moldova does not face shortages of gasoline or diesel fuel, but worries have set off panic-buying that is causing lines and emptying gas stations. The EU requires all member states to maintain emergency oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of imports of 61 days of consumption. Moldova has no such oil reserves and the Ministry of Energy has estimated that commercial reserves could cover 21 - 30 days of supply.

The government declared a 60 day State of Alert1 in the energy sector but warned the public against panic-buying and noting that the conditions to not warrant a full State of Emergency at this time.

The Ministry of Energy has proposed a draft law this week to create 90 day reserves with the government responsible for 50% of the total and private companies responsible for the other 50%. The proposal states that 60% of the reserves would need to be kept in-country. The new law targets diesel, gasoline and aviation fuel and would gradually fill a reserve until July 1, 2030.

Moldova has seen some small fuel prices increases as regulators easy the price up while monitoring the direction of events.

Transnistria faces a more acute crisis as the attack on Iran immediately disrupted their natural gas supply2. On March 4th the region’s MGRES power plan switched operations to coal in order to conserve natural gas. The regional “authorities” have instituted a gas saving regime by cutting off heat to non-essential buildings.

The ongoing crisis and manifest uncertainty across Europe is only likely to further drive Moldova’s renewable transition. This week the authorities reported that Moldova covered 24.5% of its electricity consumption in 2025 with renewable power. The country ended the year with 980 MW of installed capacity, up from 77 MW in 2020. Of that 980 MW, 400 MW was installed in 2025 alone.

Other International Affairs News

Here’s a roundup of the other top international affairs stories of the week:

• Moldova and Ukraine resolve a trade dispute after exchanging heated words. The issue started recently when Moldova’s health department (ANSA) detected the antibiotic metronidazole in chicken feed that had been imported from Ukraine. This caused a suspension of all poultry import from Ukraine subject to lot by lot testing for banned substances. Ukrainian authorities claimed that the situation was blown out of proportion and publicly suggested that they might retaliate by banning Moldovan wine. After much back and forth Moldova’s Minister of Economy Eugene Osmochescu announced that nothing will be banned and the countries are working together on new testing processes.

• Far-right parties gather in Washington DC for the “Alliance of Sovereign Nations.” The event, which took place from March 4-6 was attended by Moldovan MP Vasile Costiuc, leader of the Democracy at Home (PPDA) party. The event was organized by MAGA Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna with the support of Turning Point USA. It featured Speaker of the House Mike Johnson as the keynote speaker. Other speakers included George Simion and members of Georgian Dream and AfD. At the event Costiuc posted selfies with various attendees and wrote about the event’s opposition to globalism and support of “national sovereignty.”

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Politics - a Week of Scandals

Outside of the international uncertainty, attention in Moldova this past week has focused on 2 “scandals,” the first involving a change in the laws for justice reform, the second involving the tragic suicide of the wife of a local PAS leader. Let’s jump in.

The Fight Over Herman von Hebel

The first scandal centered on the PAS party’s nomination of Herman von Hebel to the Prosecutor’s Evaluation Commission. This is the body responsible for vetting prosecutors and is the next major step in the planned justice reform process. Von Hebel was previously the international chair of the Pre-Vetting Commission and in that role drew lots of attacks from opposition parties.

On March 5th parliament voted to appoint von Hebel to the commission where he got 53 votes of the required 61. PAS MPs then abruptly voted to change the law on vetting to reduce the required threshold to a simple majority (51 votes) for members of the commissions proposed by international development partners. This law was passed with 55 votes. Following this, 53 PAS MPs voted to appoint Herman von Hebel and Bernard Lavigne to the Prosecutors Evaluation Commission. All opposition factions opposed this move and vowed to appeal to the Constitutional Court.

The move, which included slipping the amendment in an unrelated bill and passing it directly in the second reading, drew widespread condemnation. Many prominent civil society organizations, including the Legal Resources Center (LRJM), the Promo-LEX Association, the Institute for European Policies and Reforms (IPRE), Amnesty International Moldova, the Soros Foundation Moldova, Transparency International – Moldova and the Contact Center, all signed a letter of concern. It stated (in part):

“The legislative change was promoted in an accelerated manner, without real public consultations and by introducing an amendment to a draft law with a different objective. At the same time, the urgency argument invoked for adopting the change is not legally proven, and the existing legal framework already contains mechanisms designed to prevent potential blockages in the work of the evaluation committees”

Vadim Vieru, Promo-Lex program director, said of the situation:

“This is not reform, it is the reflex of a majority that prefers to change the rules of the game rather than play by them”

**Ilie Chirtoacă of Tte Legal Resources Center of Moldova said:

“It is an absolutely regrettable decision, because it is not justified, it was not consulted and I think it will serve as a rather bad signal for the European Commission,”

Valeriu Pașa, President of Watchdog stated:

“Changing the law on the vetting commission with such speed, promulgated by the President without lifting her foot off the accelerator, is a very bad example.”

Responding to the criticism, President Sandu stated:

“In this Parliament, there are not 61 deputies who support justice reform. There are not. If you disagree, you can give me names. Beyond the parliamentary majority, who would be the other deputies who support justice reform? We can analyze their statements and the actions of the opposition – they do not support justice reform. So, by definition, it is not possible to have 61 votes in this Parliament. In the previous Parliament, they existed because the parliamentary majority ensured 61 votes and then it was not a problem. (…) We are not talking about changing the Constitution here, we are only talking about appointing members to the Vetting Commission.”

For his part, Herman von Hebel stated that he’s looking forward to getting to work.

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The Death (Femicide?) of Ludmila Vartic

The second scandal of the week involved the tragic suicide of Ludmila Vartic, who allegedly jumped from the 11th story of a Chisinau apartment building on March 3rd. The case became public on March 8th, International Women’s Day, when the NGO National Coalition “Life Without Violence” posted the following on facebook:

“Last night, the Coalition was notified via a post that another woman died as a result of violence.

Her name was Ludmila.

Ludmila’s death was no accident. It was the result of continuous abuse, humility and control.

Her husband abused her, degraded her, limited her access to her own children and ultimately left her homeless, without support and without safety. This man pushed her to death.”

The post went on to describe the death as “femicide,” define the term for readers and call on people in trouble to reach out to their network members to assistance.

This post immediately went viral, driven by the overlap with Women’s Day and the fact that Ludmilla’s husband was Dumitru Vartic, vice president of the Hincesti District Council and member of PAS.

President of the Council, Nicoletta Moroșanu, immediately called for his resignation saying that she acted not based on an assumption of guilt but that given the seriousness of the situation “maintaining an important public position in such circumstances is not appropriate.”

This was followed by a call by Doina Gherman, Vice President of Parliament, and the local PAS party in Hincesti moving to expel him from the party. Dumitru Vartic initially made a facebook post which was a mournful dedication to “Ludmila – the one who was Mother, Wife, Daughter and Friend.” He later deleted the post as the story went viral.

Dumitru Vartic resigned on March 9th.

What we (don’t) know…

At the time of writing the only concrete “evidence” that Dumitru Vartic abusively drove his wife to suicide came from that one facebook post from the National Coalition “Life Without Violence,” which itself said that they were “notified via a post.” The NGO later followed up noting all the various government agencies, politicians and police departments that have jumped into the case since they first posted - saying that they will monitor everyone’s work so that “justice will be done.”

Meanwhile, lots of social media posts swirled with rumors of rapidly arranged burials, skipped autopsies and similar claims of coverups. As near as we can tell none of those are true.

Here’s what we know, the police have now opened 2 criminal cases - one investigating her death in Chisinau and another in Hincesti looking into her husband. National Police Chief Viorel Cernăuțeanu stated that the police were unaware of any reports of domestic violence prior to her death and that contrary to rumors, police on the original scene acted according to protocol. He also said:

“It’s important to understand: if the victim remains silent, that doesn’t mean society should remain silent. Many are currently discussing what happened in this family. It’s a shame we’re only talking about this now, and not at an earlier stage, when social services, psychological support, and safety measures could have prevented the tragedy,”

The police have said that there was a suicide note but that it is being withheld to protect the couple’s minor children.

Social services announced that they were monitoring the situation with Ludmilla’s 2 children, but noted that the family was not previously on their radar.

The head of the Hincesti council, Nicoleta Morosanu, also noted that there were no previous complaints, either from Ludmilla or her relatives, that they were aware of.

For his part, Dumitru Vartic has not responded to requests for comment from many news outlets but told Nicoleta Morosanu that his wife was suffering from “professional burnout.” Ludmilla Vartic was a local Kindergarten teacher. He denies accusations of abuse and “femicide.”

This scandal has rocked Moldovan social media and politics. As far as I can tell, at the core there is a tragic death, and an accusation by a well respected coalition of NGOs without accompanying evidence or clear sourcing. National attention is squarely focused on investigating what happened and hopefully we’ll have more concrete updates next week.

Hybrid War Updates

Here’s a roundup of the top hybrid war stories of the week:

• A new Watchdog report shows a new coordinated social media campaign in support of Mayor Ceban. The campaign involves 10 facebook pages, 5 founded in 2023, 4 from 2024 and 1 from 2016, that engaged in a coordinated rebranding in order to launch Moldova targeted content. The pages were previously focused on specific cities in Romania such as Stiribraila.info (news from Braila) which changed its name to ObservatorulChisinaului (The Chisinau Observer). All the pages now promote Chisinau City Hall projects with a heavy emphasis on the mayor himself. One page dating from 2016 was previously reported to have been launched by groups affiliated with George Simion. All the pages are running paid promotions and appear to be violating META policy by not disclosing either that the content is political or who is paying.

• Moldova’s fugitives from justice in Transnistria have been located. The former president of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, Dmitri Constantinov, is staying at a friend’s apartment in the region, while other fugitives are in “more secure, more protected places” including a Russian military compound “under the protection of the Russian Federation.” This was reported by Moldova’s Chief of the National Police Viorel Cernăuțeanu. He noted that while the Moldovan authorities had located the fugitive members of the Shor network, they remained beyond the reach of the law.

• Former deputy Security and Intelligence Service (SIS) director is on trial in Romania for treason. Alexandru Bălan was arrested in September 2025 by the Romanian authorities and accused of passing state secretes to the Belorussian KGB. In the ongoing trial the authorities detailed multiple in-person meetings with KGB handlers as well as the use of email draft exchanges4 for secure communications. Bălan was appointed deputy director of SIS under Plahotniuc and served in that role until 2018.

USAID

Finally today, I want to applaud the recent episode of Last Week Tonight with John Oliver that focused on USAID. In a 30 minute takedown, Oliver focuses on the malicious stupidity behind the effort to feed USAID into the “wood chipper” and the merry band of conspiracy addled fools who have now caused hundreds of thousands of deaths - most of them children.

Back in February of last year I focused in on one of the main culprits of this event - Peter Marocco. Oliver talks about this truly odd character, but there is so much more. If you want to understand the “religious” motivation, petty vengeance, kidnapping plots, January 6th events and more that brought this man to a place of power over USAID - read my piece from last year.

USAID was imperfect - and the first people to tell you that would have been the people who worked there. But the agency did a huge amount of good around the world and provided Moldova critical support at some of the country’s lowest moments since independence. More importantly, in my experience, the people who worked there were in it for the right reasons and really really cared about their work helping others.

I can’t put into words how angry I remain at how the Trump administration maligned these people - calling them criminals or worse. Luckily, John Oliver found some good words so I’ll share those with you here.

34 Years Since the Transnistrian War

On March 2nd Moldova marks the Day of Memory and Gratitude commemorating those who died in the Transnistrian war. It’s not definitively known how many people died in the 4 months of war from March to July 1992, but estimates suggest 300 combatants and 400 civilians from the right bank1, and around 800 total from the left bank.

On the occasion President Sandu, Prime Minister Munteanu and Speaker of Parliament Grosu laid flowers at the statue of Stefan Cel Mare and then participated in the March of Remembrance through central Chisinau to the war memorial. There, they laid flowers at the statue “Mourning Mother” and President Sandu spoke to honor the sacrifice of the fallen and all veterans saying “The commemoration of the heroes of the war on the Dniester reminds us that freedom is not a given. It must be protected.”

She spoke of Moldova’s struggle for freedom and for the right of people to speak their own language and have their own traditions. Then, the President connected the events of 34 years ago with the present saying:

“We need to call things by their proper names.

In war, the aggressor is the one who attacks.

In 1992, the aggressor was Russia.

Today, in Ukraine, the aggressor is Russia.

To say that “both sides are guilty” is to falsify the truth. Moral neutrality in the face of aggression is not only cowardice, but also a lie. And solidarity between peoples who have experienced aggression is a duty.

The Republic of Moldova did not covet foreign territories. It did not start wars. It only defended its ancestral land.

And even today, the aggression against our country has not disappeared. Only the methods have changed.

If in 1992 aggression came with tanks, today it comes through propaganda, manipulation and disinformation. We are living a true cognitive war — a war that targets memory and identity. A war that tries to relativize responsibility, to confuse the aggressor with the victim.

Therefore, the defense of memory must be part of national defense.

Because the Day of Remembrance and Gratitude is not just about the past. It is also about the future. It is about the values ​​that define us. It is about our attachment to freedom, democracy and peace. It is about our natural place in the family of European states that value human dignity and the common good.

Knowledge of history and the sacrifices of ancestors is a condition for a strong state. Without memory, there is no identity. Without identity, there is no resilience. Without resilience, there is no security.”

Moldova Increases Pressure on Transnistria

On February 25th President Sandu signed a decree withdrawing the citizenship of 9 persons in Transnistria. This was done under Article 22(1)(c) of the Moldovan Constitution and the only official reason given was a referral from the Security and Intelligence Service (SIS). President Sandu’s National Security Advisor Stanislav Secrieru explained the move saying:

"The withdrawal of citizenship of the Republic of Moldova is a form of sanction for exercising functions within unconstitutional structures on the left bank of the Nistru River, for continuous actions to undermine the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state, as well as for serious violations of the rights of citizens of the Republic of Moldova. These acts were committed in the interests of a foreign state that violates the neutrality of our country and is waging a war of aggression against the neighboring state of Ukraine."

All 9 persons named hold, or have held, senior leadership roles in Transnistria and at least 2 fought for the separatists during the war. Some were deputies in the “Supreme Soviet,” others were responsible for falsifying their elections as members of their “Central Election Commission” and others were members of the region’s security services and have been accused of human rights abuses.

Article 22(1)(c) allows for the withdrawal of citizenship in cases where a person commits acts deemed "exceptionally grave" that cause harm to the country’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, or national security. It has been used in recent years to strip citizenship of Moldovans who voluntarily fight in the Russian army in Ukraine. Previously, it was illegal in Moldova to strip citizenship from someone if the act would result in them becoming stateless. A carveout to this condition was introduced in December 2025 amendments to the citizenship law that allows citizenship to still be withdrawn for certain very serious acts.

It is unclear if the 9 persons in question also have Russian citizenship, or if they are left only with the universally unrecognized “Transnistrian citizenship.”

Moldova is Creating a Convergence Fund

The next day, PAS MPs proposed a bill to gradually remove tax exemptions for Transnistrian companies. The bill would initially target “socially non-essential” products such as alcohol, but would gradually expand. Chairman of the Economy, Budget and Finance Committee, Radu Marian, explained that the region now largely imports products via companies registered in Moldova. He estimated that equalizing the taxes for these companies would bring the state 3.3 billion lei (~€164 million euro) in additional revenue.

Starting on August 1st, 2026 this money would be directed into a “Convergence Fund” that will be used to fund the increased expansion of public services to Moldovan residents in the Transnistria region. Due to the region’s economic crisis, 2025 saw a 40% increase in social spending by the government in support of Transnistrian residents.

This week that economic crisis deepened as the Transnistrian “authorities” announced that from March 1st through December 31st the salaries of state employees will be paid in 2 installments2. They claim that this is a temporary measure.

1+1 Talks Resume

On February 26th Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Valeriu Chiveri met with Transnistrian “Foreign Minister” Vitali Ignatiev for the first 1+1 meeting in 10 months. The meeting was held under the OSCE mission framework.

Zona de Securitate journalist Irina Tabaranu explained that Chisinau’s message was blunt, if diplomatic. Deputy PM Chiveri explained the creation of the Convergence Fund as a mechanism for gathering internal and external financing to support reintegration. He also spoke of plans to expand social services including pilot programs to expand emergency 1123 coverage.

Additionally, Deputy PM Chiveri delivered Chisinau’s standard demands about allowing Romanian education, access for journalists and civic activists, free movement of people and farmers, etc.

New Details in Foiled Assassination Plot

Last week we got the first details in a story about how Moldovan and Ukrainian security services foiled an assassination plot against public figures in Ukraine. We now know that the 2 countries detained 12 people in connection with this plot which was orchestrated by Russian intelligence. Searches in the case were conducted in Chisinau, Kyiv and Odesa.

The organizer of the scheme along with 2 accomplices was detained in Moldova. Police report that he is a 34 year old Moldovan citizen who was recruited by the Russian security services while serving in a Russian prison. The Ukrainian authorities stated:

“After returning to Moldova, he supported pro-Russian groups whose activities were aimed at destabilizing the country and organizing mass protests in 2022-2023,

It has been established that the group planned to kill at least five Ukrainian government officials. These murders were intended to cause significant public outcry. The aggressor state intended to use this to destabilize the situation in Ukraine,”

This network recruited contract killers to travel to Ukraine and map out the habits and movements of a set of target individuals that included high ranking military personnel, leaders of state enterprises, Russian dissidents and at least one journalist who was reported to be Dmitry Gordon. The killers were to be paid up to $100,000 per kill depending on their seniority. Ukraine’s SBU released photos showing that at least one person detained there had an ID card from PGTRK (First Transnistrian) television channel, indicating that the individual was a Transnistrian “journalist.”

Nicolae Șepeli

This is the name of one of the men detained in Moldova and based on available information likely the organizer of the plot. Șepeli was sentenced to 11 years in prison back in November 2017 in Russia for attempted drug trafficking on a large scale. He was subsequently transferred to Moldova to finish serving out his sentence in a process that started in 2018 under the government of Prime Minister Pavel Filip.

In April 2022 President Sandu released him from prison on a probationary pardon. The fact that he subsequently went on to play an active role in the Shor network (fined for electoral corruption in December 2025) and then this scheme has drawn a huge amount of scrutiny towards the pardon process. As we wrote last week President Sandu revoked his pardon the day before he was detained.

Investigative journalists including those at ZdG have done extremely detailed reporting on this pardon process and mapped out the entire multi-year cycle. The entire story is too long to include in this newsletter but interested readers should visit the above link if they want all the details. In short, the sentence transfer process from Russia was standard and following it former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo added Nicolae Șepeli’s to a list of people to consider for a pardon. The prosecutor’s office continued this after Stoianoglo was removed from office. The rationale was that a group of people from Moldova including Șepeli had been fraudulently brought to Russia on the promise of work as couriers and did not realize that they would be forced into trafficking illegal drugs (they were told it was be supplements).

The pardon recommendation was made with the support of human rights and anti-trafficking NGOs and was contingent on the Russian court also not knowing the circumstance at the time of original conviction. Of those recommended for a pardon Nicolae Șepeli was the only one accepted because he had no prior criminal record, served the majority of his sentence4 with a good behavior record and had a family willing to support him during his probation and reintegration.

As of the time of writing, no wrongdoing has been found or alleged at any stage of this process which involved officials appointed by all Moldova’s major political parties at one stage or another.

We’ll update in future editions if there is more information about the pardon process or about the operation to dismantle the contract killer network.

Politics

Here’s a roundup of the top political stories of the week:

• New IMAS poll shows dissatisfaction with the Munteanu government. Respondents were asked to rank the new government’s performance on a 1-10 scale with 10 being the best. 39% gave a grade of 1-4, 25% a grade of 5-6, 18% a grade of 7-8 and only 7% a grade of 9-10. 61% of respondents said that the Munteanu government has brought no changes, 17% said changes for the better, 14% change for the worse and 8% don’t know / no response.

• Vasile Tarlev’s Future of Moldova Party loses state funding starting in February. Prior investigations by the Central Election Commission (CEC) showed major financial violations in the 2024 presidential campaign and the party owes 587,500 lei to the state budget. The party does not have this money and has requested that their state funding be diverted to pay this debt which is now happening.

• Chisinau city hall has allocated 70 million lei for park & ride commuter lots. The new parking lots will be located in Ciocani, Buicani and Riscani and will allow commuters to drop their cars and proceed into the city on public transit. Explaining the move, the city noted that Chisinau is designed for 90,000 vehicles and currently has more than 400,000 vehicles registered in the city alone (not counting commuters).

Crime, Corruption & Justice Reform

Here are the week’s top stories in crime and justice:

• Plahotniuc’s court hearings on the “bank fraud5” case wrapped up the judicial investigation phase on February 26th. The court will reconvene on March 20th for closing arguments and then proceed to a verdict. In the last phase of the evidentiary trial the court heard testimony from a secret (anonymous) witness from inside Plahotniuc’s alleged criminal organization. This witness explained how the oligarch hired a Romanian consultant named Bogdan-Andrei Gheorghiu to build a web of shell companies collectively called UNIASIA HOLDINGS and how between 2013 and 2015 approximately $35 million dollar was transferred into this network. In 2016 Bogdan-Andrei Gheorghiu was arrested by the Romanian authorities but Plahotniuc got him out and arranged a fake Moldovan citizenship for him under the name Andrei Munteanu. The witness described the movements of 10s of millions of euros through the UNIASIA network and how Bogdan-Andrei Gheorghiu betrayed Plahotniuc and took control of these companies himself when the oligarch fled Moldova in 2019. The witness additionally explained complex schemes by which Plahotniuc acquired and maintained a €32 million euro yacht, a €40 million euro hotel in Spain a plane and more.

• Hassan Toper released and then re-arrested. Toper is alleged to be an accomplice to pre-meditated murder in the Summer 2024 “scoot by shooting” in Chisinau and was extradited from the UK to Moldova to stand trial. The court released him on house arrest over prosecutors objections creating a political scandal with MP Renato Usatii declaring “Long live reforms in the judicial system!” After 6 days of prosecutors appeals he was re-arrested.

• Major searches in a case involving the embezzlement of EU funds. Anti-corruption police (CNA) conducted searches in Causeni, Singerei, Soroca, Soldanesti, Edinet, Taraclia, Straseni, Glodeni and Chisinau targeting local public authorities, the “National Office for Regional and Local Development” and a company in Chisinau. 5 people were detained. The case involves contractor(s) offering kickbacks in exchange for winning road and sewage system construction tenders. The contractors would later bribe inspectors and engineers to get their shoddy work accepted. In one phone intercept, conspirators discussed cutting the material deliveries in half and laying 6-8 cm of asphalt instead of the required 10. Works were financed through the “European Village” program supported by the National Office for Regional and Local Development with “national and foreign” infrastructure funds.

• CNA searches in a second case of “embezzlement of foreign assets” targeted the Moldsilva Agency. The forestry agency was implementing a project called the “National Forest Expansion and Rehabilitation Program.” The CNA alleges fictional employee contracts totaling more than 4 million lei and the use of public funds for private purchase by Moldsilva employees. Environment Minister Gheorghe Hadjder announced the subsequent firings of the section heads of Moldsilva in Chisinau, Ghidighici, Vadul lui Voda, and Criuleni as well as many lower level employees. He said that firings will be followed by prosecutions. Explaining the origin of the case the Minister stated:

“Following inspections at the Ghidighici and Criuleni forestry units, where over 1,000 trees were illegally felled, we ordered internal audits at all forestry enterprises. As a result, inspectors recorded numerous violations. And it’s not just illegal logging; there are also unaccounted surpluses, unjustified expenses, and work that’s just on paper. We will not tolerate corruption, which is why dismissals and sanctions have followed,”

Economics and Infrastructure

Here’s a roundup of the top economics stories of the week:

• The US Supreme Court decision brings Moldova’s tariff rate down to 10%6. This is a major reduction from the “Liberation Day” rate of 25%. The Moldovan government is monitoring how the US implements these changes and notes that the new legal justification for the tariffs is (theoretically) temporary and expires in 150 days. In 2025 Moldova’s trade with the US grew 8.6% to $244.9 million dollars with the vast majority of Moldova’s exports the the US being wine (62%).

• PAS MPs have introduced a bill in parliament to mandate the labeling of the country of origin for products in the supermarket. The current law mandates that this information be public, but it is often hidden in the fine print. The new law would require the country to be listed on the price tag, which could include a flag, so that shoppers can easily opt for local products. Chairman of the Economy, Budget and Finance Committee, Radu Marian believes that this initiative can increase sales of local products by 5-15% and said that “It is an initiative through which we want to transform a simple act - daily shopping - into an engine supporting the national economy.”

The Munich Security Conference

Compared to last year’s Munich Security Conference, the 2026 event was far less shocking to participants. Partly, that’s because US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech was far less abrasive1 than the one delivered last year by JD Vance. Partly, it’s because the shock of the recent Greenland Crisis has been internalized and it’s getting harder for the US to shock European leaders.

President Maia Sandu was one of the more than 50 heads of state and government attending the event. There she spoke on a panel about hybrid threats sharing Moldova’s experience and warning that hybrid attacks affect all countries now - big and small. On the sidelines of the event she gave an interview to Romanian Substack news platform Explicativ where she called out “cognitive warfare” as the most dangerous threat to democracies and highlighted the role and power of social media companies saying:

“The Republic of Moldova is too small a country to be able to impose rules on platforms. And platforms must have a degree of responsibility, because they decide which algorithms they use. These algorithms bring information to our screen thousands of times to form an opinion. But that is not freedom of expression,”

At the conference President Sandu had numerous bilateral meetings, including one with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Speaking about their discussion she said that she expressed gratitude to the United States for past an ongoing support - particularly in the field of energy projects. They also discussed American cybersecurity and defense support to the country.

Following the conference, Marco Rubio journeyed onward to directly involve the United States in Hungary’s elections where he spoke of a “golden era of relations between our countries” and told Viktor Orban that “President Trump is deeply committed to your success.”

Meanwhile, a Congressional Delegation (CODEL) of 4 Democratic Senators, Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Chris Coons (D-DE) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) stopped in Chisinau on a tour of the region.

While in Chisinau the Senators met with President Sandu and Prime Minister Munteanu.

In questions and statements the Senators explained to the Moldovan press that the country is not unique in not having a US Ambassador with Senator Coons saying:

“I see our relations as close and strong. You should not misunderstand the lack of an ambassador here. We lack ambassadors in many countries”

They spoke of the Trump Administration’s support for energy projects in Moldova as evidence that a strong strategic relationship exists. Senator Blumenthal strongly condemned Putin’s war of aggression and praised Ukraine and Moldova’s “commitment to democracy.”

RISE Investigation Identify’s Shor’s Aircraft Fleet

RISE Moldova released 2 investigations this week into the financial dealings of Ilan Shor and his close proxies. The first investigation showed that starting in Spring 2024 Ilan Shor began acquiring a fleet of aircraft, starting with a AgustaWestland AW139 helicopter. This was followed by a Gulfstream G650ER, a Gulfstream G450 and another Gulfstream G650ER.

To evade sanctions, members of Shor’s network loaned money to the Turkish private jet rental company Zafer Air. These loans were not repayable in cash, but were to be redeemed for the aircraft at some future date. Zafer Air operates 12 aircraft of which 4 are Shor’s. RISE tracked the planes as largely flying to Ankara, Moscow, Istanbul, Tel Aviv, Bishkek and Abu Dhabi. Other trips included Budapest, Riga, Brussels, Vienna, Barcelona and Tokyo.

Intriguingly, for many of these flights the planes were painted with the official name and symbols of the Kyrgyz Republic and used to ferry the President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov to official visits.

On of the flights on March 2-7 2025 overlapped with Ilan Shor’s birthday and went to the Maldives. RISE quotes the Moldovan authorities as having received no information from Interpol that Shor left Russia since he arrived there from Israel in February 2024.

In their second investigation, RISE reported on recent data leaks from Russia’s sanctioned PSB bank that showed top Shor lieutenant Marina Tauber held more than $500,000 dollars cash equivalent in the bank. Tauber did not report such holdings on her asset declarations before she fled the country ahead of her 7 year 6 month prison sentence for money laundering and other crimes. RISE reports that the bank’s 21% interest rate is providing her with healthy yearly returns. Ilan Shor was also found to have an account in the bank with the equivalent of $87,000 in cash.

Other Security & Hybrid War News

Here’s a roundup of the other top security stories of the week:

• Dmitri Constantinov doesn’t “want to go to prison.” The former President of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia thus explained why he is on the run from the law in a newly released video. He called his recent 12 year prison sentence for embezzling more than 46 million lei “unfair” because the word “embezzlement” implies the theft of public funds and he was actually convicted of stealing this money from a private company - a situation he calls an “an economic dispute between private entities.” Constantinov is wanted by police and assumed to be in the Transnistria region after he escaped with a network of accomplices - changing cars at least 3 times - the day before sentencing.

• The authorities announced a joint Moldovan-Ukrainian investigation into a Russian plot to assassinate Ukrainian public officials. Few details are available at the time of writing, but we know that one of the targets of the investigation was a Moldovan citizen named Nicolae Andrei Șepeli. He was previously convicted of an unspecified crime in Russia before being transferred to finish his prison sentence in a Moldovan prison. He as pardoned by President Sandu in April 2022 on the recommendation of the Prosecutor General and Commission on Issues of Pardoning Convicted Persons. This pardon was conditional on a sort of parole agreement and has been canceled citing new information2.

Dodon’s “Kuliok” Trial Continues

Vladimir Plahotniuc has refused to testify in ongoing court proceedings against Igor Dodon in the case that has been nicknamed “kuliok” (bag). The case stems from a secretly recorded video, presumably by Plahotniuc himself, showing a discussion between himself and then President Igor Dodon in 2019. In the video, Plahotniuc passes Dodon a black bag with the implication that it contains money. Recall that Vladimir Voronin, when it appeared he was being forced out of politics last summer, told the world that the bag contained €860,000 euros.

During court hearings, long portions of the video not involving the bag were played for the first time. They involve a negotiation between Dodon and Plahotniuc about the formation of a governing coalition in the wake of the 2019 parliamentary elections. Plahotniuc, then leader of the Democratic Party, asks Dodon for his terms and Dodon stipulates that there will be 2 coalition agreements:

1. The Secret Agreement - to be signed between Plahotniuc and Dodon at the Russian Embassy in the presence of the Russian Ambassador.

2. The Public Agreement - to be signed by the Democratic Party leader (Plahotniuc) and the Socialist Party leader (Zinaida Greceanîi) and released publicly.

While the public agreement divided up ministries and created power-sharing working groups, the secret agreement involved Federalization. This almost certainly referred to the reintegration of Transnistria via the constitutionally asymmetric Kozak Memorandum3. Dodon explained that “The word federalization is a problem for us too. I explained it to Putin and Putin agreed,” and the 2 men agreed to use the term “special status.”

In parallel, Plahotniuc asked for assurances that criminal cases against him opened in Russia would be closed. Dodon stated that Putin had invited Plahotniuc to Russia under his “personal guarantee” in order to discuss this. Plahotniuc asked for assurances that did not involve him going to Russia, to which Dodon replied that Dimitri Kozak insists on the coalition agreement coming first.

Dodon additionally discussed party financing, with the clear implication that he was referring to Plahotniuc financing the Socialist Party, where he said “For us, 600-700 per month,” adding that this will increase “up to 700-800.” Plahotniuc expressed some surprise at this number, and Dodon insisted that “If you want to change something, I have to consult with Moscow.”

Note: Plahotniuc’s refusal to testify reflects his right against self incrimination as he is also a defendant in a related case that has not yet been brought to court.

Other Crime, Corruption & Justice News

• Police increase the suspected body count of the Beriozchi serial killer. The crimes, which were first announced on Christmas Eve, are still being investigated as the police process the alleged killer’s sprawling pig farm. Chief of Police Viorel Cernăuțeanu answered questions about progress stating:

“Active investigative measures are currently underway, which will undoubtedly further shock society. We’re talking about events from 2005-2008, 2015, and 2018, when the suspect committed quite serious crimes. Without going into details, the investigation has already clearly identified three victims. Three more victims are under investigation,”

• Interpol has refused to issue a Red Notice for Denis Cuculescu who was recently convicted of fraud and treason. The agency cited their rules against getting involved in political or security related prosecutions as the reason. Moldovan police are reapplying and attempting to negotiate, focusing on the fraud conviction.

• Vlad Filat announced that Interpol dropped their Red Notice against him. This was confirmed by the Moldovan police but the reason is unclear. The warrant involved Filat’s recent prison sentence in France.

• Anti-Corruption Prosecutors announced a new criminal case against Plahotniuc regarding the use of false identity documents. This will be his 6th ongoing criminal case in Moldova and the 3rd international case involving his many identities discovered when he was arrested in Greece (the other cases are in Greece and Romania)

The Conflict over the Dereneu Church

A conflict between the Moldovan Orthodox Church (under Moscow) and the Romanian Orthodox Metropolis of Bessarabia (under Bucharest) over a church in the town of Dereneu has spilled into national politics. Back in 2018 the parish priest joined many other parishes around the country by defecting to the Metropolis of Bessarabia. This sparked a violent reaction, fueled by members of the Moldovan Orthodox Church and the local mayor who forcibly removed the priest and occupied the church. This case has spent years winding through the courts because the church building is state property. Ultimately, the Supreme Court of Justice ruled that parish choices and historical claims grant the right to use the building to the Metropolis of Bessarabia.

Forward to the present, Moldovan Orthodox Church Archbishop Petru of Ungheni and Nisporeni, lit the match when he and various priests and parishioners occupied parts of the church grounds and tried to celebrate mass earlier this month. They were joined by a growing mob that the government now says are primarily “organized” outside agitators unrelated to this small town. Socialist MPs have attended the protests and the police have had to intervene to prevent the mob from forcibly removing the parish priest and occupying the building.

This conflict has resulted in pictures and video clips being spread through Russian disinformation networks with claims that the Moldovan government is seizing churches or that a “Ukrainian scenario” is underway. Russian Foriegn Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has called this an “attack on Orthodoxy” and a stain on any claim that the West believes in human rights.

In other Orthodoxy news, Russian Patriarch Kirill awarded Transnistrian “President” Vadim Krasnoselsky the Order of Prince Daniel of Moscow, 2nd Class “for his contribution to the development of church-state relations.”

Other Political Updates

Here’s a roundup of the top politics stories of the week:

• Democracy at Home (PPDA) MPs Sergiu Stefanco and Ana Țurcan-Oboroc stole a car off a police impound lot in Cahul. They claimed that the car was seized as part of bankruptcy proceedings against a local farmer in violation of a law passed in late 2025 that suspended asset confiscations from farmers. The car belongs to a local party leader’s wife. The farmer then returned the car in less than an hour saying “I don’t want to break the law.” PPDA leader Vasile Costiuc praised his MPs “for their courage” and denied reports (and video evidence) that the man had immediately returned the car. The car was released the following day through normal legal procedure.

• The Ministry of Education launched a letter writing campaign on the 4th anniversary of the full scale war. The campaign is called “A letter in place of a hug” and encourages 6-12 graders to write a “simple and sincere letter, in which they convey a message of encouragement and hope” to their peers in Ukraine. Secretary of State Valentina Olaru stated that the letters don’t need to be “long or perfect” but that they should “come from the heart” and send the message “we are not indifferent.”

Economics & Infrastructure

Here’s a roundup of the top stories of the week:

• Moldova is planning a high-speed electric rail link Chisinau-Ungheni. Minister of Infrastructure Bolea stated that a feasibility study is starting with the goal of planning a 140 km / hr rail line of European gauge. This line would connect from the Chisinau airport through Ungheni to Bucharest. When Romania completes their Pașcani - Iași line then this link would connect Chisinau to the entire European high speed rail network.

• Questions swirl over the failure to complete the Vulcănești - Chișinău high voltage line in 2025. Politicians and ministers repeatedly claimed that the line would be put into use by December 2025 and have recently given contradicting answers as to what went wrong. President Sandu recently spoke in an interview explaining that while the power line is complete and has been tested the power stations at either end are behind their contractual deadlines. Minister of Energy Dorin Junghietu was forced to clarify that this isn’t really true. The contract deadline was never December 2025 but June 2026. He said that he made the public statements on the basis of verbal conversations he had where he urged the companies to complete the work faster - but that no such agreements were put on paper. When pressed he claimed that the contractors made “promises” but again, only verbally.

• Moldelectrica has hit a milestone - for the first time they have reported battery storage as an energy source. Currently 25 MWhs of batteries are installed but the Ministry of Energy predicts up to 200 MWh by the end of the year thanks to private investment. They note that new tenders for wind farms with 170 MW capacity are being prepared and that these tenders require 0.25 MWh of storage to be installed alongside every 1 MW of generation.

• Is the economy growing again? The National bank thinks so. They announced that GDP growth in Q3 of 2025 was 5.2%. They also announced that January inflation was 4.85% and within the bank’s target zone. The bank believes that the economy has now come out of stagnation.

• Parliament has voted to raise the VAT threshold for companies to 1.7 million lei. Ultimately, MPs sided with the government against proposals to further increase the threshold to 3.2 million.

• Economist Veaceslav Ionita has presented findings on the structural problems of the housing market in Moldova. He cites lack of housing supply driven by regulatory problems and poor financial instruments for builders as the driver of the ever-increasing housing prices in Chisinau. Specifically, he cites a 0.5% fee on the total project cost that is required to even start building. This means that a €100 million euro apartment building would have a €500,000 euro fee just to begin construction - much higher than in other parts of Europe. In terms of financing he notes that bank loans for real estate have exploded from 3.7 billion lei in 2015 to 29.4 billion lei in 2025 with half of this difference coming in the last 2 years. Critically, while around 70% of financing for new housing construction used to come in the form of loans to construction companies, today that figure is only 10% with the majority of lending going directly to households. Construction companies are unable to access cheap financing so they sell apartments in unbuilt projects in advance of construction and individual households make these purchases and wait 5-7 years to either move in or flip the completed property for up to 3x profit. This contrasts with an EU average of 50-70% of residential construction financing coming from bank loans offered at lower than mortgage rates. Since subsidized prima-casa mortgages cannot be spent on buildings that are unfinished this means that state money is subsidizing purchases on a supply constrained market and further driving up the price.

Here are some key comparisons between the Transnistria region and the rest of Moldova1:

Additionally, industrial output from Transnistria has fallen 30% in a single year. The region is now operating at 75% of their 1989 industrial output.

Veaceslav Ioniță estimates that 60% of the region’s economic activity relies on Russian gas. On February 5th the MGRES power station switched over from natural gas to coal. No reason was given and they switched back to gas on Monday February 9th. The interruption implies continued difficulties getting deliveries of Russian gas. Transnistria now has an extremely limited emergency supply of coal after last winter’s long crisis. They are unable to resupply as the coal required comes from a specific mine in the Donbas under Russian occupation.

Looking at the big picture, Ioniță explained the depth of the crisis writing:

“In 2025, the left bank of the Dniester River entered the deepest economic and social crisis in at least the last 25 years. Industry has collapsed, GDP has fallen dramatically, exports are at a historic low, and the population - both employees and pensioners - lives worse than a decade ago. All these developments show an extremely complicated situation, unprecedented for the region”

I’ve written before about how the inherent contradictions in the Transnistrian economic and governance model have become impossible to reconcile. Now we are starting to see clear indications of the structural collapse of the region’s economy.

In parallel, human right’s NGO Promo-Lex reports a sharp deterioration of human rights in Transnistria in 2025. They particularly cite total control of the information space, increased propaganda, militarization of eduction - with specific focus on disabled children and those in institutions - and inhumane conditions in detention facilities.

The region’s “authorities” are pushing for even more control of the information space and have rolled out their own messaging app this week called IDC Matrix. Transnistrian “President” Krasnoselsky has urged people not to use “imported apps” claiming that IDC Matrix is safer. Journalists who have tested the app have shown that there is no end to end encryption - meaning that all messages are available to the operator.

Other Security News:

Here are the other top security stories of the week:

• Another Russian drone crashed in Moldova. The authorities confirmed this one was also a Gerbera model without a warhead. It crashed in the village of Sofia in the Drochia district.

• Moldova was ranked 5th globally in cybersecurity. The annual ratings, called the National Cyber ​​Security Index (NCSI), from Estonia’s E-Governance Agency, listed the top 5 countries as the Czech Republic, Canada, Estonia, Finland and Moldova. Foriegn Minister Mihai Popșoi called the ranking “proof that Moldova is becoming a safe and resilient digital hub.”

Prime Minister Munteanu Visits Kyiv

The Prime Minister led a delegation including Minister of Energy, Dorin Junghietu, Minister of Internal Affairs, Daniella Misail-Nichitin, Minister of Infrastructure Vladimir Bolea, and State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sergiu Mihov. In Kyiv they met with their counterparts and announced various joint projects including a new bridge across the Nistru at Cosăuți-Imapol2. In joint remarks with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, Prime Minister Muntean stated:

“My special attitude towards Ukraine is well known, given that I have lived here for more than 20 years. As Prime Minister, on my first visit to Ukraine, I returned with respect and solidarity towards the Ukrainian people, who are on the front lines in defense of peace and human values”

He expressed strong support for Ukraine and presented a new humanitarian package from Moldova. This package, valued at over €700,000 euros, includes emergency vehicles, generators, medical supplies and food.

Prime Minister Munteanu also visited the Wall of Remembrance of the Fallen for Ukraine and met with President Zelenskyy. Following their meeting, President Zelenskyy wrote on facebook:

“During the meeting with the Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova, Alexandru Munteanu, bilateral projects between our countries were discussed. Energy, railways, infrastructure - everything must be implemented.”

Thank you for your support for Ukraine and our people. We have a common vision of the future in the European Union, and the path of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova to the EU must be common, so that all residents of our region benefit from the strengthening of our peoples and Europe as a whole,”

Other International Affairs Stories

Here’s a roundup of the other international news of the week:

• Maia Sandu on her nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize. President Sandu responded to questions this week on her nomination speaking in the context of the news of a new prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia saying:

“I’m grateful that people are watching our country, that they appreciate our courage and resilience, but there are many people nominated for this award.

Today I looked at the Ukrainians who returned home from Russia, and these are the people who deserve the Nobel Peace Prize. These are the people who sacrifice their lives for peace, because they want to bring peace back to their country, to their villages, to their cities, and to our continent,”

• Politico - the EU plans to bring Ukraine into the block in 2027. The outlet reports that EU leaders are working on a plan for a “multi-speed” Europe that they are calling “reverse enlargement.” Under this idea, Ukraine, and theoretically Moldova and other candidate countries, would be brought into the EU before negotiations are fully complete. The countries would start as members with limited voting rights and limited responsibilities. They would then complete the qualifications for full membership and phase into full membership. The idea is to make membership inevitable and allow a solid timeline to be incorporated into draft peace proposals supported by the United States. This idea is opposed by Germany but being pushed by France, Italy, Poland and others. The plan outlines 5 steps for implementation which are all focused on neutralizing the veto from Hungary. Viktor Orban stated this week that Ukraine is an “enemy” of Hungary and vehemently opposes Ukrainian membership in the EU. The plan envisions an unofficial negotiations process, where Ukraine works through negotiating clusters and reforms even as Hungary opposes officially opening these clusters. Then, they wait for Orban to leave - ideally by losing the Hungarian elections in April. If that fails, they plan to lean on Trump to force Orban to support the agreement in the context of a peace treaty. As a final option, Hungary’s voting rights can be suspended under EU Article 7. Politico quoted an unnamed Moldovan official’s reaction saying that Moldova…

“wants to join a European Union that functions effectively beyond 27 member states, and we welcome discussions on the internal reforms needed to make this possible.” (…) [but]

“full membership - with equal rights and full participation in EU decision-making - must remain the clear and final destination.”

Author’s Note: If you are interested in following the Hungarian election with coverage in English I strongly recommend the “Days Until Hungarian Elections” substack. Written by veteran journalists they detail both the campaign as well as the major election interference being conducted by the Kremlin to force a pro-Orban outcome.

Days Until the Hungarian Elections

Weekly analysis on the upcoming historical Hungarian elections by Denník N and Napunk.

By Veronika Munk

Hybrid War Updates

Here are the top stories in the Kremlin’s hybrid war against Moldova from the week:

• Watchdog reports another connection between the FSB and Mayor Ion Ceban. Their investigation shows that FSB affiliate Nidjat Askerov held an “assistant” badge giving him access to the Chisinau Primaria (city hall). Askerov has been documented as working alongside FSB agent, and Ceban campaign consultant in 2019, Iurii Gudilin. ZdG has previously reported that Gudilin worked with Askerov to provide financing to the MAN party “like the PSRM” (Socialists) with a total of €600,000 euros per month. Askerov also recently appeared in the treason trial of Denis Cuculescu, who claimed that Askerov recruited him as an FSB asset to funnel this money into Moldova via crypto and other illicit schemes. Mayor Ceban’s people deny this and claim that the “assistant” badge was fabricated with AI.

• One man and 2 women sentenced for preparing violent provocations and attempting to create mass public disorder. They were convicted in the context of the paramilitary training camps in Bosnia and Herzegovina that were organized by Russian agents and the Shor network. The trio was arrested while trying to cross back into Moldova with drones and incendiary devices. After arrest, the man was held for 12 months in pre-trial detention and then released as this is the maximum allowed by law. One of the women was released on judicial control, the other was released on house arrest in Tiraspol3. All have now fled and are now wanted. They were sentenced to 4 and 5 year terms.

• Lukoil no longer accepts credit cards. Gas stations in the Russian network have now been cut off by local banks which are implementing US sanctions against the company. For now they are trying to work in cash but the viability of the network is in real question as they await buyout offers for the parent company’s assets in Europe.

Political News

Here’s a roundup of the top politics stories of the week:

• Moldova may ban social media for children under 16. The government has announced the beginning of public consultations on the plan which Minister of Education Dan Perciun has called “very realistic.” The government envisions the start of a national conversation and consultations with the potential for a decision being made by the end of the year. President Sandu, speaking on the occasion of the global “Safer Internet Day,” called attention to the problems facing children saying:

“Our children are growing up in a very different world than the one we grew up in. Real, social life, with friends, colleagues, and family, is gradually being replaced by a networked life - inauthentic, without physical presence, without real relationships.”

• Moldova is represented by 5 athletes at the olympics. The team consists of 3 biathlon athletes and 2 cross country skiers. The flag was carried at the opening ceremony by skier Iulian Luchin.

• Gagauzia’s elections are tentatively scheduled for May 17. The Central Election Commission (CEC) is now in dialog with the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia to resolve issues with the election legislation in the region. The core problem is a pickle of the People’s Assembly’s own making. The CEC demands that they amend recent legislation that named the Central Election Committee of Gagauzia as the governing body for the vote. Because there can only be 1 CEC under the Moldova constitution this body must be renamed as the “Electoral Council.” Unfortunately, the People’s Assembly adopted legal amendments in 2024 that had 2 effects: 1) their term of office expires exactly 4 years after the last elections, and 2) they are unable to pass any legislation in the lame duck session. Now, with their terms expired in November they are unable to rename the commission / council and have frozen themselves in place. They are working on a technical solution (which I’ll leave in a footnote4) that will allow elections by May.

Crime, Corruption & Justice Reform

Here are the top stories of the week in the justice sector:

• Polls show people believe the justice sector is improving. The think-thank IPRE released a poll on “integrity in the justice sector” (full results in English) that showed 49% of respondents saying that the situation has improved in the last 3 years while 20% said that things got worse. 56% credit government actions with the improving situation. Of the remaining issues, 57% named corruption as the top problem, 15% cronyism and 15% unprofessionalism.

• Moldova slides slightly in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. In 2025 the country was ranked 80th of 182 countries and territories with a score of 42 points (0 means total corruption, 100 is no corruption). This is a slide from the 2024 rankings where Moldova was 78th with 43 points. Within the EU, both Bulgaria and Hungary are ranked worse than Moldova with 40 points. Moldova is tied with Kosovo and China. Romania was slightly better with 45 points and Ukraine worse with 36 (placed 104th). Transparency noted that the global average has fallen to 42 points - a 10 year low.

Prime Minister Munteanu has not put out any statements to mark the occasion and Newsmaker quotes him as calling the "first 100 days" milestone as "outdated" and "Soviet."

That last part is particularly confusing, as the tradition of using the first 100 days to frame an agenda and build momentum goes back to Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the start of the New Deal in 1933. It is very common around Europe and almost invariably marked by Moldovan Prime Ministers and Presidents1. It is particularly not Soviet as the leaders of that defunct empire spent no time considering limited terms of office, justifying their priorities to citizens or organizing a legislative agenda.

Just because the Prime Minister chose not to mark the milestone did not mean that it did not happen2. Various of news outlets ran summaries of the government’s 100 days, the MAN party protested on the occasion, the Communists gave speeches and President Maia Sandu was forced to answer questions in interviews about why the milestone was being ignored.

This was juxtaposed with 2 official press releases from the government on February 9th. In one, Prime Minister Munteanu bid farewell to the Ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to Moldova. In the other, he met with a relatively junior German MP.

I reached out to the new Government Spokesperson, Daniela Crudu, last Friday for comment on their 100 days. She didn’t respond until I pressed - asking if the answer was “no comment” on the evening of February 9th, at which time she asked for more time to answer my questions. At the time of writing I have not heard back.

Problems with Communication

Since coming into office Prime Minister Muntean and his team have struggled to communicate either their objectives or what they are working on. NM quotes economic expert Victor Ciobanu on the issue saying:

"Maybe some interesting ideas are emerging from the depths of the Ministry of Economy, but we don't know about them. The government is like a hedgehog in the fog. They seem to be doing something, but the details are unclear."

Government Spokesperson Daniela Crudu only recently took over the job after the post was vacant for nearly 3 months. In that time the Prime Minister’s team have succeeded in making him very active on TikTok, Facebook and Instagram Reels with short videos - including recent ones about snow removal and one this morning explaining that he and various ministers were off to Kyiv for official visits.

This has created a strange communications mix. On one hand, the new Prime Minister, who has no prior political experience or profile as a public figure, is quite present on social media. On the other, the lack of a spokesperson has meant that nothing approximating a clear messaging agenda has been put out since they took office.

Finally, what is most unusual is that the lack of clarity about what is going on is not just a public phenomenon. All last week I have had discussions with people and organizations that work closely with the government in various areas (civil society groups, NGOs, etc) who uniformly asked me what the government was going to announce at the 100 day mark?

They didn’t know, I had no answer and the apparent answer is “nothing.”

So taking as a fact that this has been a masterclass in how not to do political communications, let’s try and answer the question as best as we can and look at what happened in the last 100 days.

“100 Days of Foreign Policy”

Former Government Spokesperson Daniel Vodă published a post with his thoughts on the top accomplishments of the 100 days. He did so in his new capacity as an associate expert in foreign policy and strategic communications at the think-tank IPRE.

In his analysis he first cites as historic Moldova’s move to finally disentangle itself from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). He goes on to note successful diplomacy in growing bilateral relationships both for Moldova’s economic development and security relationships. The only really concrete point he celebrates in this area was the recent $35 million dollars in support allocated by the United States for security assistance.

Vodă’s focus on international affairs is logical given his new position, but it further highlights the lack of clear talking points for the new government. The effort to withdraw from CIS has been ongoing since 2022 and is not complete. He specified that he made the post because Newsmaker had approached him for analysis. The unspoken implication was clear - after failing to get comment from the current government team, they reached out to the former spokesman.

The foreign policy framing may also be an attempt to just fill the blank with something. Experts who spoke to various news outlets pretty uniformly noted the lack of policy clarify on economic and domestic affairs. Speaking to Newsmaker, Victor Ciobanu called Minister of Economy Eugen Osmochescu's announcement of a Development Bank “important.” But we still have no details on what that is envisioned to be. The most visible actions in the last 100 days are around taxes - namely the revision / removal of the de minimis tax rate (targeting Temu) and the re-valuation of land values for property taxes. These could be important reforms, but in the case of the land valuation I have so far totally avoided it on Moldova Matters because it’s so unclear how it will turn out.

Economic expert Veaceslav Ioniță explained the tax moves more broadly saying:

“The government is facing a difficult situation: revenues are falling, while expenses are rising. The deficit is growing, and to correct the situation, revenues must be increased. This is precisely what the government is doing: finding ways to increase budget revenues. This is a noble goal, but it is being completely misrepresented. The government has very poor communication.”

The impression is one of many policies under discussion, but very little clarity as to what is going on and what the overall direction is.

What Does This All Mean?

Maybe nothing. The tradition of marking 100 days is totally artificial (if not Soviet in any way). It’s really not clear if there are big ideas and projects afoot that are not being communicated well… or not. Failing to talk about it on an arbitrary day isn’t necessarily an indicator one way or another.

It is however an indicator of a failing, or non-existent, political strategy. A simple press release (or facebook post) would have avoided a bad news cycle. Bigger than that though, is a real and widespread feeling that people do not know what this government is doing.

When pressed by a reporter on the 100 days, President Sandu responded:

“In 100 days, you cannot make a revolution in the economy. We are waiting to see a program, not necessarily a completely new one, because there is continuity, but with new elements that take into account the current context, in order to accelerate economic growth despite external and internal obstacles,”

So we are all still waiting.

On Saturday, January 31st 2026 the lights went out across most of Moldova. The time was 10:42 am. This was only the second such occurrence since the beginning of the full scale invasion of Ukraine, with the first being November 23, 2022.

Minister of Energy, Dorin Junghietu explained:

“Due to serious problems in the Ukrainian power grid, on the morning of Saturday, January 31, the voltage dropped on the 400 kV Isaccea-Vulcăneşti-MGRES line, causing the damaged disconnection of the power system.

The electricity transmission system operator, Moldelectrica, is working to remedy the situation, with voltage already restored in some localities,”

In Chisinau, Mayor Ceban called for calm and requested police take over traffic directions at intersections. With trolleybuses offline, people streamed into the streets wherever the busses happened to stop. At the same time, give that it was Saturday morning, things were quiet compared to the rush hour blackout in 2022.

Border crossings switched to generators and processed passports by hand until they were brought back online at around 4 pm. Hospitals and medical institutions also went to generators for critical systems and were also online by 3:40. By 3 pm Chisinau’s trolleys were starting to operate and by 4:30 most of the country was connected to the grid again.

During that time, backup generators kept all critical infrastructure operating, police responded to control traffic and dozens of people had to be rescued from stopped elevators. Emergency plans developed after the last outage, combined with light weekend traffic, meant that the outage was an inconvenience, not a disaster.

Still, power was out in much of the country for 4-6 hours….

What Happened?

To answer this question we need to refresh ourselves on Moldova’s electrical infrastructure situation.

While we don’t know exactly what the trigger was, it has been reported as an equipment failure / fault in Ukraine. This is likely due to Russian attack, or due to damage sustained in past attacks. In the map above, you see the Isaccea-Vulcăneşti-MGRES (MGRES is marked “Moldavaskaia TPP) 400 kV high voltage line in yellow. This is how electricity transits from Romania (EU grid) through Ukraine to Transnistria. From there it supplies the Odesa region in Southern Ukraine and Moldova.

A voltage drop on this line cause a cascading automatic disconnection of power stations all across Moldova (and presumably Southern Ukraine). Equipment that cannot survive below a certain voltage threshold disconnects automatically to prevent damage. This first took down all the green 300 kV lines, followed by the purple lines on the map above which are largely 110 kV regional lines. Below those, the 10 kV feeder lines disconnected themselves as well.

This made the Romania connection lines at Stinca, Tutora and Husi, seen above as purple lines crossing into Romania, go into “island mode.” This contingency had been tested and planned for but never used. Basically, those lines, which are normally inactive, begin supplying power to small “islands” of towns in Moldova within their vicinity. This way any parts of the country that could be directly supplied from Romania kept power due to the emergency plan.

Technicians restored power in basically the same order in which it went out: big lines to small ones. By 3:40 pm all the 110 kV lines were re-energized and local crews were bringing online the 10 kV feeders in stages.

In remarks after power had been restored, Minister of Energy Dorin Junghietu said:

“Today’s incident shows how important the interconnections with Romania that we are currently working on, Bălţi - Suceava, Straşeni - Gutinaş and, of course, Vulcăneşti - Chişinău, are. We thank the system operators in Romania and Ukraine for their operative interventions and cooperation,”

Recall: While Moldova is not reliant on Russia or Transnistria for electricity, it is reliant on high voltage lines that pass through both Ukraine and Transnistria. The government and international partners are working on 3 new high voltage lines to mitigate this risk:

• Vulcăneşti - Chişinău (seen above in red stretching south from Chisinau): This line has been completed and tested. It will be operational once the power stations on either end are completed and certified. It was funded by the World Bank.

• Bălţi - Suceava (seen above in red stretching west from Balti): Funded by the European partners1 this line is planned to be completed by late 2027.

• Straşeni - Gutinaş (not pictured, but between the 2 pictured red lines): The last of the 3 lines is fully funded by a US government grant of $130 million dollars. The timeline is not yet announced.

The Vulcăneşti - Chişinău line alone will be able to handle more than half of Moldova’s peak electrical consumption and will substantially guard against situations like the blackout from last weekend.

International Affairs & Security

Here’s a roundup of the top international affairs stories of the week:

• Maia Sandu was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Norwegian MP and Green Party Leader Arild Hermstad nominated her citing Russian hybrid attacks and saying that “protecting institutions, transparency, and democratic elections is preventive peacebuilding.” Nominations for the Nobel Prize close on January 31st each year. Around 300-400 people are nominated yearly by the fairly large number of people who have the right to nominate anyone they please. From those a shortlist is compiled and a decision announced in October.

• The US will allocate $36.5 million dollars in security support to Moldova. This was announced by Moldovan Ambassador to the US Vlad Kulminski who stated that the funds would be used for “energy security, cybersecurity, resilience and other related national security priorities.” The ambassador noted that Moldova was among very few regional countries to receive any announcements of support from the US this year saying that it reflects “the level of trust and maturity of security cooperation between the Republic of Moldova and the United States.”

• The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has banned the use of 1C in public institutions. For those of you lucky enough not to know, 1C is a Russian accounting program2. It has a near total monopoly on both private and public sector use in Moldova, Ukraine and many other former Soviet states. The SBU determined that putting all the nation’s finances through a Russian program was a risk. This has sparked a conversation in Moldova about the use of 1C as well as the use of Russian video conferencing software TrueConf, which is used for all remote court hearings.

Editor’s Note: I am aware that the US House of Representatives Judiciary Committee released an interim staff report that spends some time focusing on Moldova. The report, which basically ignores Russian election interference while claiming that the EU undemocratically manipulates elections, is “absurd and unfounded.” That was the official response of the European Commission, and I haven’t decided whether I’ll just go with that or whether I’ll dedicate an article to how Citizens United is being used to privilege corporate speech over both individuals and other nations sovereignty. I’ll get back to you on this one3.

Crime & Corruption

Plahotniuc “associate” Vladimir Andronachi was released from custody at the end of January. Andronachi had been in pre-trial detention as his trials for major corruption progress. ZdG does a great job explaining the mind numbing nuance of his release, but here’s the gist: The district court claims that the lead prosecutor missed the deadline for filing to extend his detention. They then released him for 30 days under judicial control with electronic monitoring. The prosecutor appealed, and the appeals court agreed that the prosecutor failed to make the deadline, but also dismissed the “judicial control with electronic monitoring” on another technicality meaning he’s just free to do whatever he wants. The prosecutor claims that the court illegally manipulated the filing deadlines due to the holiday schedule. He is being investigated by a disciplinary board now.

It’s a classic case of 2 courts and a prosecutor all “agreeing” officially that a dangerous criminal who is a flight risk should not be released… and blaming others for forcing their own hands in releasing him. We’ll see what comes next in the case, or if Transnistria gains one more oligarch this month.

Economics & Infrastructure

Here’s a roundup of the top economics stories of the week:

• The state has officially retaken control of Lukoil’s airport assets. Recall, that due to US sanctions the state took temporary control on November 12th of this strategic asset while paperwork was sorted out. Lukoil was required to officially ceed ownership by January 9th - but missed the deadline resulting in a 5 million lei fine. Now they have officially ceded ownership and paid the fine. Separate reports indicate that the American investment fund Carlyle Group is in negotiations to buy Lukoil assets outside Russia which would include the filling stations in Moldova. This deal still faces regulatory approval.

• Parliament has proposed an increase of the VAT registration threshold for small companies. Currently, once a company makes more than 1.2 million lei / year it must become a VAT payer (20% default rate). This means a major increase in taxes and accounting complexity. Parliament’s Committee on Economy, Budget and Finance has proposed raising this threshold to 3.2 million lei. The government has stated that they support a new threshold of 1.7 million lei - picked to align with EU norms. The 1.2 million threshold has been in place since the early 2010s, meaning that an absolute minimum new threshold to simply keep up with inflation would be around 2 - 2.4 million. Small companies have gotten disproportionately squeezed by inflation, but EU norms of keeping this threshold relatively low are likely to win the day. We’ll keep an eye on this story.

When compared to the last 10 years, Moldova is in the middle of an unusually cold winter. Snow that fell in early January is still on the ground and the capital’s lakes have frozen and provide space for a nice walk or a game of hockey.

But over the weekend the winter wonderland turned precarious as warmer temperatures began a snow melt and then quickly reverted - resulting in sheets of ice. Moldova does not have chemical treatments for roads and relies largely on sand. This worked well in high-traffic areas of Chisinau where the combination of lots of tires and the fact that asphalt is usually warmer than air temperature meant that most roads were ice free.

Not true for sidewalks and parking areas that are constructed of concrete pavers. These all froze solid into sheets. By the end of Sunday Chisinau’s emergency hospital set an all time record with 374 trauma injuries due to ice falls in a single day. This has continued since with medical personnel working long shifts and calls for people to put off non-emergency visits.

Chisinau initially closed schools on Monday but eventually extended this to the entire week with classes going remote. Balti did the same, and police suspended some intercity road travel in the north of the county. Truck traffic has been suspended at the border in some areas and the government declared that the start of any remaining classes and the workday itself would be delayed until 9 am all week.

Ice resulted in limited power outages in some villages and caused a fault at the Dubasari Hydroelectric Power Plant which resulted in a partial blackout of Dubasari and Corjova.

In spite of all of this strain, Moldova’s power grid and energy security situation is not showing signs of strain. Investments and lessons from past energy crises seem to have paid off in the first really cold winter since 2022. At the same time, the current situation in Ukraine is “close to a humanitarian catastrophe” according to Maxim Timchenko, director of the largest private power company in the country. With temperatures similar to, or colder than, Chisinau, 88,000 families in Kyiv had no power as of January 24th and Russian strikes continue to cripple Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Presidential Priorities for 2026

President Sandu gave a press conference about her priorities in 2026. Here is an overview of what she said:

Priority 1: Foreign Policy

“When international law no longer protects you sufficiently, you need to have good friends, to be part of alliances (...) Moldova’s foreign policy will be oriented towards firmly anchoring our country in credible partnerships with states that help each other in an increasingly hostile world”

Priority 2: Security

“A modern, capable, well-equipped army is fundamental for our development, peace and freedom”

The President proposed an increase in defense spending to 1% of GDP in 2026.

Priority 3 : Child Safety

The President spoke of 3 focus areas here - mental health in the digital age, drug prevention and physical health. Most of her remarks focused on mental health and how much time children are spending online. She discussed new school programs to teach digital hygiene.

Analysis: No mention was made of banning social media for minors, but given the shift in that direction in France and across much of the world the topic may come up for discussion this year.

Priority 4: Anti-Corruption and Justice Reform

“In recent years, several measures have been taken, complex and ambitious measures, some with better results, others that still need to be worked on and these results demonstrated. But it is important that we manage to build a system in which every citizen has confidence”

Priority 5: The Diaspora

She brought this priority back to security stating:

“One of the factors that makes people leave is the uncertainty related to Russia’s war in Ukraine.”

Speaking to the assembled journalists the President concluded saying:

“I know that these realities can create unease. Anxiety and uncertainty, concern for tomorrow—these affect the life of each and every one of us. But it is my duty to call things by their name, especially now, in moments like these. (…) We understand that we must press forward with even greater determination toward European integration. European integration is our anchor of safety in the face of an uncertain future,”

Emphasis mine.

Political Updates

Here’s a roundup of the other top political stories of the week:

• Olympic medalist Anastasia Nikita resigned from parliament. The PAS MP wrote on her social media that she was unable to juggle the work of parliament, being a mother and “remaining an athlete who still dreams of Los Angeles 2028.” The later was almost certainly the driving factor as rules against holding multiple jobs meant that she would have had to give up her athletic career while an MP. She joins 5 other PAS MPs who have resigned since the recent elections - most to pursue their former careers.

• Gagauzia’s elections for the People’s Assembly, scheduled for March, are now on hold indefinitely. The news comes amidst a political squabble between the autonomous region and the central government. According to Moldova’s electoral legislation (updated in 2022) Gagauzia appoints a Central Electoral Council to run their elections. This body is subordinate to the national Central Election Commission. In December 2025 the People’s Assembly voted to create their own Central Election Commission in defiance of the law, actions which led to the Supreme Court of Justice suspending this “commission.” What appears on its face to be a semantic argument is really a case of the national government seeking to bring the region back into line after years of Shor control and mass electoral corruption1. On January 25th anti-government protests “In Defense of Gagauzia” took place in the autonomy. The events began and ended with prayers and included appeals to Donald Trump to intervene and to release Bashkan Gutsul from prison.

• The government has initiated a process of Local Public Administration reform. This will begin with a series of public consultations, lead to a draft concept and further discussions in Spring and to an eventual presentation to parliament in Fall. Currently the plan is light on details but seems to envision merging small villages into common administrative centers and replacing defunct mayors offices with new public service centers. The stated goal is to empower local authorities and give them enough size to be competitive for absorbing EU funds. No statements have yet indicated a reform to the Raion system or some new vision for Moldova’s extremely small and fragmented regional governments.

International Affairs

Here’s a roundup of the top stories of the week:

• President Sandu visited Poland this week and announced new defense cooperation agreements. Polish President Karol Nawrocki praised Moldova as a “model for many countries around the world, demonstrating how to escape Russia’s sphere of influence” and promised support for Moldova’s EU path as well as new bilateral military support. This visit is part of President Sandu’s diplomatic push in line with her 2026 priorities that included a recent speech in Strasbourg to PACE which Moldova Matters published in full:

• Romanian AUR leader and Make Europe Great Again (MEGA) champion took part in a huge AUR delegation to Washington DC. There, he attended a gala event hosted by the “Republicans for National Renewal” that included US Representatives Ana Paulina Luna (R-FL), Andy Ogles (R-TN) and Abraham Hamadeh (R-AZ). In a video from the event, Simion helps to carve up a Greenland shaped cake draped in the American flag. The event was also attended by Brian Brown, who seemed to accompany Simion on the whole trip and referred to him as “the next president of Romania.” Recall, Brown attended and spoke at the pre-election MEGA conference in Chisinau. Simion got an award at the gala and spoke of the need to unite the MAGA and MEGA movements. While carving the cake he can be heard to say “We need to get rid of Macron.” When challenged about his participation in the Greenland cake cutting he simply replied “This is the atmosphere at a reception in Washington DC these days.”

• George Simion will attend the “International Alliance of Sovereigntists” gathering in Washington DC. The event, alternately called the “Alliance of Sovereign Nations,” was announced by US Representative Ana Paulina Luna with few details except that it will be a counterpoint to the World Economic Forum whose attendees can quote “keep their creepy bug eating dystopian bs to themselves” - Ana Paulina Luna. The event will take place on March 4-5 and is sponsored / organized by Turning Point USA.

• President Sandu confirmed that she was not invited to join the “Board of Peace.” Answering a question about it, she stated that she “appreciates any genuine efforts aimed at achieving peace” but then pivoted to center questions of international law and territorial integrity - noting that Russia is currently violating Moldova’s territorial integrity and has been invited to the board. Most of Europe is refusing Mr. Trump’s board invitation for the time being and Canada’s invitation was withdrawn after Prime Minister Mark Carney offended Trump. You can see the current invitees and those that have accepted here.

Security - Another Drone Crashed in Moldova

This one was armed. This week a Geran-2 drone was found crashed in the garden of an uninhabited house in Crocmaz, Ştefan Vodă. The drone was armed with a BST-52 warhead including 50kg of explosives. Sappers removed the drone to a safe location and destroyed it in a controlled explosion.

President Sandu was asked by the press about whether or not simply condemning such actions and summoning the Russian ambassador was a sufficient response. She replied:

“Russia violates our airspace. The solutions are not simple, I agree with you that just expressing our position and condemning, in the case of Russia, is not enough, because Russia continues, both in relation to the Republic of Moldova and other independent states, to violate airspace,”

“It’s not simple, because all countries, after this war of Russia against Ukraine began, are trying to acquire such [air defense] equipment, and the demand is greater than the supply. Sometimes there are resources, but you have nowhere to buy. We are also trying to identify the resources, because, in our case, they are also a problem, and the manufacturers, so that we can strengthen the protection of the airspace as quickly as possible,”

Shor & Hybrid War Updates

Here’s a roundup of the top stories of the week:

• Shor’s A7A5 Cryptocurrency turns 1 year old - and keeps growing. British blockchain analysis firm Elliptic published a report with updates on the rubble backed stablecoin / sanctions evasion tool. A7A5 has now surpassed $100 billion dollars in transactions and a trading volume of $17.3 billion (see footnote2). They report that A7A5 is succeeding as a “safe harbor” for those wanting access to USDT3. The report stated that the total accounts with A7A5 have doubled since July 2025 in part because of 3 new features: 1) easy purchase or A7A5 from PSB bank cards in Russia, 2) Stablepay - a virtual debit card feature designed to help Russians make online purchases like Netflix or ChatGPT4, 3) Digital Promissory Notes - these are the crypto bearer bonds we previously wrote about. Elliptic reports that in spite of account growth and new features, A7A5 has plateaued as sanctions are succeeding at constraining its growth.

• Natalia Morari decided to test her travel ban to the EU and found… she is banned. The disgraced journalist attempted to cross from Moldova into Romania at the Leușeni-Albița checkpoint and was given an official decision showing that she is banned from the EU, European Economic Area and Swiss Confederation for 5 years. The ban cites “national security.” We first wrote about this ban, which also affected Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban and Shor-network politician Vasile Tarlev, back in July. Morari tested the ban as an on-video stunt and claims that she wanted an official rejection so she can sue5.

• The FSB claims they arrested a Moldovan SIS agent in Moscow. Moldova’s Security and Intelligence Service (SIS) denied any connection to the arrested man. Journalists have reported that the arrested man is Serghei Mișin, former advisor to former-President Igor Dodon on interethnic relations. Later he was one of the founders of Shor’s Renaissance Party. IPN reports, citing sources, that this is a “settlement of scores between the Shor group and other allies of the Kremlin in the Republic of Moldova.” They claim that Serghei Mișin remained Igor Dodon’s man and that while the FSB is looking for culprits in their failure to influence the outcome of Moldova’s elections, Shor’s people are trying to feed them the heads of people associated with Dodon and the Socialists. President Sandu also refuted the FSB claims that he was a spy and took the opportunity to reiterate the government’s warning that citizens traveling to Russia risk arbitrary arrest and detention.

Crime & Corruption

Constantin Țuțu was sentenced to 8 years in prison. The former kick-boxer, turned Democratic Party MP, turned Plahotniuc’s “bodyguard” in exile, was convicted on illicit enrichment, false income tax returns and influence peddling. He was fined 450,000 lei and banned from holding office for 5 years. His lawyers are appealing and prosecutors, who had asked for 15 years in prison, are considering an appeal as well.

This is only one of the ongoing cases involving Mr. Țuțu, who previously avoided accountability in a murder case by running out the clock on the statute of limitations.

The details of this case are… frankly, stupid. While an MP Țuțu twice extorted €20,000 euros from the same family with the promise of getting their relative released from detention. Both times he did nothing and both times he gave the money back after being confronted by the family (he kept €2000 at one point which only served to elevate the later extortion charges).

Mr. Țuțu is not famed for his brilliance. Recall, after initially being detained with Plahotniuc in Greece, he was released because there was no international arrest warrant for him. He then constructed a one man criminal chase spree (while not being chased) that culminated in sneaking across multiple borders and attempting to bribe a Moldovan border guard… and immediately getting arrested. Other criminal cases are ongoing, including charges of attempting to illegally cross the border.

Economics & Infrastructure

Here’s a roundup of the top stories of the week:

• The first tests of the Vulcănești - Chișinau high voltage line were successful. Minister of Energy Dorin Junghietu stated that the line is now being energized but that construction of the power stations at either end of the line must still be completed. When operational this line will be able to carry 50% of Moldova’s peak energy consumption.

• The Ministry of Economy has announced a raft of new public services available on the EVO app. The digital app now integrates m-sign and m-cabinet as well as the ability to request a large number of digital services. Michelle Iliev, Secretary of State for Digitalization stated that this is only the beginning saying:

“Moldova will be among the first countries to implement the Digital Wallet and remote identification, to offer every entrepreneur and citizen a digital office anywhere in Europe.”

While often conflated with the European Union, the Council of Europe is a separate and older institution. Founded in 1949, its core mission has been to prevent the return of authoritarianism to Europe by upholding human rights, democracy, and the rule of law. Its most powerful body, the European Court of Human Rights, issues binding judgments for all 46 member states - including countries outside the EU such as Moldova, Ukraine, Türkiye, and the United Kingdom. Addressing PACE, then, means speaking not just to governments, but to the institutional guardians of Europe’s democratic norms.

President Sandu used that platform to argue that Europe is already facing two wars: one kinetic, and one hybrid. She urged the Assembly to “act at the speed of the threat,” warning that Europe’s response remains dangerously mismatched to the challenge:

“You do not respond to a patient in cardiac arrest by announcing a long-term public health strategy.”

I’ve decided to publish the speech in full for several reasons. The fact of a Moldovan president addressing PACE alone would make this moment notable. The fact that President Sandu used the address to issue a blunt warning of the threat, and critique of past action, makes it historic.

Moldova’s success in fending off sustained Russian hybrid attacks has given the country a credibility - and a degree of moral authority - that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

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President Maia Sandu’s speech is published below in full. You can find it published on the website of the Presidency in English. If you prefer, you can also watch it on youtube here:

President of the Assembly, Madam Petra Bayr, congratulations on your election,
Secretary General, Alain Berset,
Honourable Members of Parliaments,
Distinguished guests,

Today, I want to speak about the two wars Europe is facing, how our democracies are being attacked, how those attacks are amplified by technology, and what we should do to protect our peace, our democratic choices, and our freedom.

As Moldova holds the rotating Presidency of the Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers, allow me to remind us that the Council of Europe was born from the failure of European democracies to protect themselves in time. From the realisation that peace without democratic resilience is temporary.

The Statute of the Council of Europe is explicit.

Its purpose is to achieve greater unity.
To safeguard human rights.
To uphold democracy and the rule of law.

Not as ideals alone.
But as systems that must withstand pressure, manipulation, and abuse.

The Council of Europe was never meant to be a comfort zone.
It was meant to be a line of defence.

And today, Europe is at war again. Two wars, in fact.

The first is visible, brutal, and devastating.

Russia is waging a conventional full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. Cities are destroyed. Civilians are killed. Energy infrastructure is deliberately targeted. This winter, millions of Ukrainians are living in darkness and cold — not because of the weather, but because the Kremlin has made freezing civilians a weapon of war.

To break the will of a nation by making life itself unlivable.

For most of us, this kind of suffering is impossible to imagine. But for Ukrainians, it is daily life. And it demands not only our solidarity — but our responsibility.

For Moldova, this war is not distant.

In Moldova we know that we owe our peace to Ukraine’s resistance.

We know that if Ukraine falls, Russia will not stop at Moldova.

Ukraine’s fight is therefore about the security of Moldova, of the region, and of Europe as a whole.

And this is also why there can be no lasting peace without accountability for Russia’s aggression. Without justice, war does not end — it only pauses and prepares to return.

Here, the Council of Europe has a vital role to play — not as a neutral observer, but as a political guardian of democratic values and international law. The accountability mechanisms developed within this Organisation, including the register of damage and work to ensure justice for victims, are essential to restoring trust in the rules that protect us all.

But while our attention is rightly focused on this war, a second war is unfolding.
This is the war against our democracies

It is less visible.
But it is no less dangerous.

This war is being fought inside our societies.

It is a hybrid war.
An information war.
A war to divide people and control our hearts and minds.

This war is accelerated by technologies we do not fully see and understand. By algorithms that increasingly determine what people read, watch, and believe, while their logic remains largely opaque.

These two wars are not separate. They reinforce one another.

Russia’s military aggression and its hybrid operations pursue the same objective: to undermine, control, and divide Europe.

One destroys cities.
The other erodes trust.

One uses missiles.
The other uses money, narratives, and manipulation.

This is how democracies are attacked — from within.

At the core of this second war are two things.

Dark money.
And dark politics.

Dark money fuels dark politics.

Illicit financial flows make manipulation scalable and persistent. They pay for influence operations, political capture, and disinformation designed to divide societies and turn people against themselves — against their own state, democracy, and freedom.

Moldova has been — and still is — on the frontline of this second war.

For two consecutive years, our country has faced massive electoral interference. It was multi-domain.

An energy crisis designed to put economic pressure on vulnerable citizens.
Political corruption targeting parties and candidates.
Information warfare across online platforms.
Cyber operations aimed at institutions and voters.

All with one objective: to seize Parliament, install a Kremlin-controlled government, crush our democracy, drag Moldova into Russia’s sphere of influence, and use it against Ukraine and against Europe.

And if that failed, to delegitimise elections, provoke unrest, and weaken trust in our institutions.

Social networks became central battlegrounds in this war. What we saw in Moldova was not a spontaneous expression. It was organised, funded, and scaled by AI.

One single coordinated network of just over 100 fake accounts on TikTok, operating for less than three months, generated around 50 million views, over 100,000 comments, and more than 1.5 million interactions — in a country of 2.4 million people.

The goal was to create a false impression of overwhelming anger and social collapse — to exhaust citizens, amplify fear, and discourage democratic participation. This was not an isolated case.

We also documented the activity of an influence network, already identified by European partners, which produced more than one thousand coordinated publications about our country in just a few months.

These messages accumulated tens of millions of views and were deliberately laundered through seemingly credible voices before being amplified by inauthentic accounts.

This targeted Moldova’s image abroad.

When traditional propaganda channels were restricted, hostile actors adapted again.

Content linked to Kremlin-affiliated broadcast media was delivered directly into people’s homes through mobile applications, bypassing audiovisual regulation entirely.

When exposed, these outlets did not disappear.
They changed domains and jurisdiction.
They rebranded and resumed operations within days.

This adaptability tells us something essential.

We are facing professional, well-funded, long-term operations — built on the systematic identification of vulnerabilities, enabled by transnational infrastructure, and sustained by the exploitation of legal loopholes.

Moldova is not the only country facing these challenges.
We see similar pressures across Europe.

I am proud to say that Moldova resisted this two-year assault through a whole-of-society effort. Our citizens proved their commitment to peace, to Europe, and to democracy.

But I regret to see Georgia, where — despite the courage of the Georgian people, who continue to stand up for democratic values, European aspirations, and the right to decide their own future — Russia pulled Georgia back into its orbit by weaponising the fear of war, signalling that the wrong electoral choice would come at the cost of peace.

Now Armenia is becoming a target of the same strategy — aimed at weakening sovereignty, influencing democratic choices, and exploiting internal vulnerabilities.

We stand with Armenia and its people as they work to resist these pressures and defend their democratic future.

Among all the ways this hybrid war is waged, the most dangerous for the future of our democracies is information manipulation amplified by technology, opaque algorithms, and artificial intelligence.

If left unchecked, those who control technology will increasingly control how people think.

I am particularly concerned about the impact of this cognitive war on the younger generation.

If we want democracies that can resist manipulation, we must protect the freedom of young minds.

This is not only a question of technology or regulation.
It is a question of democratic resilience.

Trust, critical thinking, and mental wellbeing are essential conditions for free societies.

The Council of Europe has already given us a clear starting point: children’s rights apply fully online, and states have a responsibility to protect their best interests in the digital environment.

Moldova’s experience shows why this matters: disinformation works by exhausting societies — by making people fearful, divided, and distrustful. And it is especially effective where young people are left unprotected in digital spaces designed to exploit attention and emotion.

This brings me to what I think we should do.

Long-term efforts alone will not meet the urgency of this threat.

You do not respond to a patient in cardiac arrest by announcing a long-term public health strategy.

You act immediately.
You stabilise the patient.
You stop the bleeding.
And then you invest in prevention and resilience.

Today, our democracies are under acute attack.

Treating this only as a long-term challenge — while elections are actively manipulated and institutions destabilised — leaves democracies exposed at the very moment they need protection.

We must act at the speed of the threat.
And we must protect our democracies without betraying democratic principles.

Here, the Council of Europe has a unique role to play.

We need a clear and comprehensive legal instrument on foreign information manipulation and interference — one that addresses election interference, media concentration and capture, organised crime, cybercrime, corruption, and the malign use of artificial intelligence and other technologies.

This should allow us to act before damage is done — not after.

After two years of resisting Russian interference, here is what has worked for us.

Coordinated disinformation campaigns must be exposed and disrupted before they shape voters’ perceptions and distort democratic debate.
For this, journalists and civil society must be protected.

Foreign interference and proxy actors must be exposed before trust in elections is undermined.

Illegal party financing must be tracked before those who benefit from it gain power through the ballot box.

And I cannot emphasise elections enough.

In democracies, they are the most vulnerable entry point for foreign manipulation — and the most decisive one. This is where trust can be broken fastest, where disinformation has the greatest impact, and where illicit money can translate directly into power.

That is why monitoring must begin months before voting day and extend fully into the online space.

Digital interference must be detected in real time, not reconstructed afterwards.

And illegal money must be identified and stopped before it distorts the will of voters.

Cutting off the financial lifelines of interference, including through cryptocurrency, is essential to stopping manipulation at scale.

The work of the Financial Action Task Force and MONEYVAL has been essential in strengthening anti–money laundering frameworks across Europe. Moldova is also largely compliant with MONEYVAL standards. Yet our experience shows that even strong AML systems are not enough.

We lacked the legal and operational tools to act fast against illicit financial flows specifically designed to interfere with elections.

Money fuels interference. Technology amplifies it. Therefore we must govern the digital space responsibly.

The internet and social platforms have strengthened freedom and connection. They are among humanity’s great innovations. But no invention exists without rules. Electricity requires safety standards. Cars require traffic rules — especially near schools. The digital space is no different.

Children’s wellbeing must be protected.

Freedom of expression must be protected from fake accounts posing as free voices.

Artificial intelligence must be governed with care.

Taken together, these are acts of democratic self-defence. And they define whether democracy remains a living system — or becomes an open target.

So we must move faster than the threat and take the initiative.

The Council of Europe was created for moments like this — not when democracy is comfortable, but when it is contested.

Moldova’s presidency of the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe will act with this responsibility in mind.

Thank you.

Here’s a roundup of the top stories of the week:

• President Sandu hosted Albanian President Bajram Begaj for an official visit to Chisinau. The visit was the first such visit in over 20 years. Moldova and Albania are seeking to deepen their bilateral cooperation as both candidate countries seek EU membership. In a press conference both presidents promised increased cooperation and President Benaj expressed hope that Moldova will reconsider its choice not to recognize Kosovo’s independence.

• The United States is suspending immigrant visa processing for Moldova. The move comes in the context of a broader suspension of visa processing for 75 countries. Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs later clarified that this only applies to immigrant visas and not to non-immigrant visas such as those for tourism, study work of business. Existing visas remain valid. Moldova’s ambassador to the United States Vlad Kulminski estimated that this temporary suspension affects only a few dozen people per year.

• Russia state media regulator (censor) Roskomnadzor has ordered Moldovan investigative outlet ZdG to delete an article. The article in question was a recap of a recent investigation by the late Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) into a massive palace that Putin has in occupied Crimea. ZdG was given 24 hours to comply… and has no intention of doing so. This is the second time that Roskomnadzor has tried to compel a Moldovan media outlet to censor themselves. Back in March 2022 they ordered ZdG to delete content calling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “war.” It is unclear how they intend to enforce Russian censorship laws outside of Russia’s borders and occupied territories.

• Another Russian Gerbera drone was found crashed in Moldova. The done, found near Nucăreni, Telenești, was investigated by police and found to be a decoy without an explosive payload.

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Politics

The main story of the week has continued to be debates about President Sandu’s statements about her personal feeling regarding union with Romania. While pro-Russian parties continue to attack the President for her remarks, Prime Minister Munteanu and other members of the cabinet have come out with similar statements. Prime Minister Munteanu stated:

“As citizen Alexandru Munteanu, I would vote for unification with Romania. But as Prime Minister of Moldova, I am obliged to fulfill the will of the majority of our country’s citizens, who have already voted three times to make integration into the European Union Moldova’s strategic goal. I will do everything required of me to achieve this goal,”

When asked about the issue Minister of Foreign Affairs Mihai Popșoi evoked the 1918 union precedent saying:

“Obviously, if the situation spirals out of control and not only the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country, but also the lives and existence of our citizens, are threatened, then we will have to make difficult decisions. But we want to live in peace. We do not want a Russian invasion and hope that the parties to the conflict will reach a peace agreement,”

This echoed my article from the past weekend where I tried to put a very complex (and contentious) issue into context. Specifically, I focused on how security concerns were the major driver of the 1918 union. You can read that article here if you missed it:

In other political news, President Sandu presented her income and asset declaration for 2025. During the year she earned a salary of 269,000 lei, payments of 55,000 lei for unused vacation days, 154,000 lei for travel per diem and 67,000 lei from a lawsuit she won. She listed her only property as the same 74.5 sq meter apartment in Chisinau that she has lived in for many years. The President listed 1 bank account with 21,000 lei in it as well.

Her income is slightly up due to increased travel in 2025 but otherwise basically unchanged compared to past years.

Shor & Hybrid War News

Here’s a roundup of the top hybrid war stories of the week:

• Romania is seeking to revoke Victoria Furtună’s citizenship. According to the Romanian press she was due in Bucharest last week for a court hearing. The process of revoking the Shor-network politician’s citizenship was initiated by the Romanian Intelligence Service (SRI). Furtună claimed that she found out from the press and could not attend anyhow as she has been barred from entering the EU.

• Mayor Ion Ceban denies connections to Russian FSB agents. As we wrote last week, Moldovan citizen Denis Cuculescu was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison for treason. During the trial, various witnesses spoke of how a set of FSB agents under US sanctions were assigned to work for Ceban before the MAN party existed (aka - helped craft the party) and recruited other agents to convert cryptocurrency into cash to pay employees of the Chisinau City Hall. Faced with this reporting, Ceban stated “I deny all these moments and I have no connection, under any context and in any situation.”

Crime & Corruption

Here’s a roundup of the top justice related stories of the week:

• Alexei Cotorobai was sentenced to 25 years in prison and required to pay 1.5 million lei in damages. He was convicted of murdering an infant, kidnapping the child’s mother, who was a minor herself, and raping her. This crime took place in 2010 and he evaded justice until a 2024 investigation by ZdG resurfaced the case. Mr. Alexei Cotorobai was at the time a member of Ilan Shor’s “Chance” party and had recently been a candidate for local office. What brought his case to national attention was his brother Gheorghe Cotorobai’s abduction and murder of 19 year old, and 6 month pregnant, Ana-Maria. We covered the details of both brother’s cases at the time. Alexei Cotorobai’s lawyers say he intends to appeal.

• ZdG has launched a new page dedicated to grand corruption cases. If you’re interested in perusing the many ongoing… and painfully slow… grand corruption cases against Moldova’s oligarchs then it’s a great resource. You can find it here.

• Plahotniuc’s close associate and godson, Dorin Damir, was sentenced to 3 years in prison. He was convicted on 2 counts of abuse of office and forgery. The case relates to a no-show job he was given in the Ministry of Internal Affairs at the time that his godfather had captured the state. Without ever coming to work Damir became a police officer and was rapidly promoted to a commissioner. The apparent reason for this fiction was to claim he was undercover in order to issue him a new identity1 under the name Dumitru Busuioc. The trial lasted 4 years and 4 months. Following the verdict Dorin Damir was arrested and taken into custody.

Economics & Infrastructure

Here’s a roundup of the top economics stories of the week:

• Starting on July 1st all incoming packages valued at under €150 euros will be taxed. This is according to Minister of Finance Andrian Gavriliță who says that 20% VAT as well as a fixed 20 lei fee will be applied to all orders shipped into the country. The Minister stated that they are working with the platforms (Temu, Shein, Joom, etc) and that they will collect and pay the tax themselves.

• The Port of Giurgiulesti has been sold to “Administration of Maritime Ports” SA of Romania. This state company finalized the purchase of the port in December but was held up by numerous legal challenges involving past owners of the port. These have now all been resolved and the port is sold.

Ending on a High Note!

Moldovan rapper Satoshi was selected to represent the country in this year’s Eurovision song contest. Satoshi’s song is titled “Viva, Moldova!” Satoshi is among the most popular musical artists in Moldova right now. While people online disagree about the song, most commentators seem happy that a respectable artist was selected.

Recall, the country pulled out of the 2025 Eurovision song contest after a confused process that seemed to indicate that the jury was too embarrassed by the available options to move forward. Moldova has a long history of punching above its weight in this contest and we’ll see if Satoshi can keep it up! For those interested, here’s the chosen song:

Luckily, Moldova’s news cycle is pretty slow during the holidays - though there are a few exceptions (including a serial killer?!).

No slow news for the rest of the world in 2026. Like pretty much everyone else on earth the Moldovan press has been fixated on whether or no Trump will shatter NATO by annexing Greenland, what happened with Maduro? and now, what’s going on in Iran - with President Maia Sandu expressing solidarity with the protestors this week. Unexpectedly, Ilan Shor even pops up in the Venezuela story a bit as we’ll see below.

Holiday Messages

The fact that Moldova celebrates most holidays by the old and new calendar gives a lot of opportunities for holiday cheer. Politicians posted various Christmas messages for December 25th to kick off the holiday season, but the main event is the President’s New Year’s Eve address. This year, President Sandu sought to highlight each citizens contribution in 2025 saying:

“The year 2025 was a courageous year, because Moldovans demonstrated courage and love of freedom. It was a dignified year, because state institutions acted with dignity and patriotism. A year of solidarity through countless examples of care that, I am convinced, almost each of you demonstrated. A year of trust – we trusted each other and our country and strengthened our belief that Moldova deserves and can be a good country for its families, for children and the elderly, for strong traditions, but also for groundbreaking innovations.” (…)

The challenges of 2025 have brought our society to its knees, at times. We have had battles imposed by others to divide and argue. The holidays are a time when we can put everything aside and turn our hearts and minds to the things that matter most – the well-being of our families and the peace in our homes.”

The holidays finally wrap up with Old New Years on January 14th. Whew… that was a lot.

The Rest is Politics Leading

As I wrote about last week, Hosts Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell of The Rest is Politics Leading interviewed Maia Sandu in Chisinau. Their hour long English language interview went live yesterday - you can find it on youtube or wherever you get your podcasts.

The interview is wide ranging, starting from her childhood in the Soviet Union and progressing through her entry into politics and growth as a politician. In it, President Sandu is very candid and strikes a conversational tone throughout.

One answer of hers has already made quite a bit of news in Moldova (and even internationally). In a wider discussion about Moldova’s independence from the Soviet Union and that moment of change, the hosts asked about Union with Romania. Maia Sandu gave an interesting answer saying:

“If we have a referendum, I would vote for the unification with Romania. Look at what’s happening around Moldova today, what’s happening in the world, it is getting more and more difficult for a small country like Moldova to survive as a democracy, as a sovereign country, and of course to resist Russia. But as the President of Moldova I do understand, looking at the polls, that there is not a majority of people today who would support the unification of Moldova with Romania. But there is a majority who support the EU integration. This is what we are pursuing, it is a more realistic objective and it helps us to survive as a democracy.”

This answer, separating personal opinion from her political project or political ambition, is not particularly surprising. Running for President back in 2016 Maia Sandu answered the same question the same way on Romanian language TV. It’s also been the basic assumption of her position both by political allies and enemies.

That said, she has rarely spoke of the topic in the intervening years as Union is very politically divisive in Moldova. The opposition are already putting out messages attacking her on this and it is likely to be a reoccurring attack line. It’s unclear if she wanted to send a signal with this statement, or if she is simply feeling more comfortable now that she does not face reelection.

If you haven’t listened already, I highly recommend the interview!

Russia Strikes the Maiaki-Udobnoe Bridge

On December 18th Russian drones struck the bridge at Maiaki-Udobnoe damaging the structure and cars that were passing. You can see video of the attack here:

This bridge lies just outside the Moldovan border on the road to Odesa. In the past I have written about how the geography of southern Moldova and south western Ukraine create complex interdependencies - here’s a good example.

In the lefthand image you can see Moldova’s 2 main souther border crossings with Ukraine in green. Crossing (#1) Palanca leads to a winding road through marshland in the Nistru river delta before crossing at the (#3) Maiaki-Udobnoe bridge into Ukraine proper. Crossing (#2) Tudora leads into the Budjak region and towns like Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Crossings from Budjak to Odesa all cars must backtrack via Moldova and the (#3) Maiaki-Udobnoe bridge or the via the (#4) Zatoka bridge. That later bridge was destroyed in the first weeks of the war to isolate Budjak from Odesa1.

With the bridge damaged, cars and buses were turned around at Palanca and Tudora and the General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations, supported by the UNHCR, set up temporary warm tents for people who were stranded. The new route to Odesa, pictured on the right above, meant that a 4-5 hour trip by bus had become a 10-15 hour trip due to this strike.

Within a few days travel resumed for light vehicles while heavy trucks had to remain diverted for a time. This story is important because it underlines how interlinked Moldova and Ukraine are in the river delta regions. Russia’s strike - timed right before the holidays and without a military purpose - also underlines their desire to inflict maximum pain and inconvenience on the civilian population.

Shor and Hybrid War Updates

Here’s a roundup of the top Shor / hybrid war updates of the last few weeks:

• Venezuela oil tanker linked to Shor. As part of the war and partial blockade by the United States against Venezuela, the US Coast Guard attempted to interdict an oil tanker on December 20th. The tanker was flying a Guyanan flag and managed to evade the coast guard and lead them on a multi week chase from the Caribbean to the North Atlantic. On the 4th day of the chase the tanker painted a Russian flag on their hull and (according to some media) rendezvoused with a Russian submarine for escort. This didn’t help much as the tanker was later boarded and captured on January 7th. RFE/RL Moldovan service reported that this tanker has close ties to Ilan Shor. The system of shell company ownership is very complicated, but the owners of the tanker as well as the fuel distributors and other companies associated with it, mostly lead back to women from Moldova who are also holders of Shor’s other companies (TV stations, etc). So like a bad penny, Mr. Shor keeps showing up as a shadowy figure behind global news stories.

• Shor’s A7 network is growing in Kyrgyzstan. Local investigative outlet Kloop reported that despite sanctions, the A7A5 cryptocurrency is growing in scale and in capability. Their investigation shows the Shor network entrenching itself in the Kyrgyz business, banking and political system as they build out more and more tools for sanctions evasion. They even quote A7’s Director of Government Relations and International Relations, Oleg Ogienko, as saying that “Sanctions are something we were preparing for [...] there were some negative consequences, which we successfully mitigated.” Critically, A7A5 has created a new product - a “digital bill of exchange” which functions like a digital bearer bond. Like a paper bearer bond, this product would entitle the owner to a set amount of the A7A5 cryptocurrency when they redeem it. Until they do redeem it though, it could trade like cash - leaving no record of transactions on the crypto ledger at all. So between the issuance of the “bond” until its redemption it could not be traced.

• Shor’s people keep getting sentenced… and fleeing. Prosecutors and courts and now providing a steady drumbeat of convictions and sentences for local leaders in the Shor network. This is leading to preemptive departures by top Shor elected officials, with Veaceslav Zhukov, chairman of the Pobeda (Victory) Bloc of the Balti Municipal Council, joining this growing exodus. Unfortunately, high profile figures are still dodging their convictions because…

• Former President of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, Dmitrii Constantinov, vanished before sentencing. On December 26th he was sentenced to 12 years in prison after being convicted in a case of abuse of power and embezzlement of 46 million lei. Constantinov, who stepped down as President of the Assembly in November, had served in the role since 2022 and was a prominent Shor network politician. He attended the creation of the Pobeda Bloc in Moscow and in spite of recent statements attempting to distance himself from Shor, had close links with the oligarch. Dmitrii Constantinov did not attend his sentencing as his lawyers claimed he was in the hospital. On December 30th Police reported that he had escaped to Transnistria on December 25th. On that day, supported by unnamed others, he changed vehicles 3 times on the short drive in order to throw off surveillance and prevent tracking. He joins a growing number of Shor officials who sit in Transnistria rather than jail.

• Victoria Furtună and Vasile Costiuc each appealed to Marco Rubio on December 24th following the US announcing sanctions against EU officials and activists. The politicians, linked to Shor and George Simion respectively, both claimed that they were being censored in Moldova due to their “sovereignist convictions,” and in Furtună’s case her “open support for @POTUS Donald Trump.” Costiuc claimed that he plans more meetings and work in order to “strengthen cooperation and jointly counter the abuses of the ‘Soros’ network” who he calls parasites2.

• Moldovan citizen Denis Cuculescu was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison for treason and fraud. The trial showed the Cuculescu was recruited to work for the FSB by fellow Moldovan citizen Nidjat Askerov (subject of a parallel trial). Askerov’s handler with the FSB was Iurii Gudilin. If you remember that name then you will recall that Gudilin was sanctioned by the US in October 2022 as a major player in efforts to undermine Moldova’s democracy. He was also a lead campaign consultant for Igor Dodon in 2020. In the trial, Denis Cuculescu was shown to have been brought in as a crypto and money laundering specialist, and to have moved more than €300 euros from Russia to Moldova. From February to March 2022 he also recruited other operatives in order to “incite the population against refugees from Ukraine” by vandalizing buildings and cars while painting Ukrainian symbols on them. In one case, he tried to hire someone to set an Instagram influencer’s car on fire. In the trial various witnesses spoke to Mr. Cuculescu’s connections in Chisinau - here are a few stand out quotes:

  • While in Odesa with Cuculescu withdrawing money, a witness claimed that Cuculescu said “the money belongs to the Russians.” He then noted that he was working with “a very influential person, Nidjat Askerov, who would have direct connections with Ion Ceban and Igor Dodon , free access to the Chisinau City Hall and influence at the diplomatic level.”

  • They later went to a birthday party at a disco and spent €4000-€5000 euros of this “Russian” money. Denis Cuculescu berated Nidjat Askerov saying he was “stupid” and that “the money represented salaries for people from the Chisinau City Hall and that Askerov easily spent foreign money.”

  • Another witness explained that after Igor Dodon lost the 2020 election, his Russian advisors Iurii Gudilin and Olga Grag, promoted Nidjat Askerov for his work in that race and delegated him to work for Ion Ceban in the future.

  Denis Cuculescu has been put on the wanted list and is being sought by police. He is understood to have fled to Russia.

Other Crime and Corruption Updates

Here’s a roundup of the other top stories in crime and corruption:

• Former Prime Minister Vlad Filat was sentenced to prison in France. Filat and his ex-wife Sandra were both sentenced to prison time (2 years for him and 18 months suspended for her) and fined €100,000 and €150,000 euros respectively. The case stems from 2012-2014 when Filat and his ex-wife bought multiple French properties through shell companies and an intermediary. He was convicted of using funds from a Canadian company that in 2011 was awarded the contract to manage Moldova’s National Lottery. The court ruled that the corrupt origin of the funds had been deliberately concealed. The Moldovan State joined the case seeking moral damages and was awarded €10,000 euros - to be jointly paid by the Filats. Vlad Filat maintains his innocence and is appealing the case.

Maia Sandu Speaks Out About Justice System Issues

On December 30th President Sandu called a press conference to urgently appeal to parliament and the government to reform aspects of the vetting mechanism. Like in France, Moldova’s system has a trial “in the first instance” followed by an almost automatic appeal on the merits for major cases. Because the appeals court ultimately decides these cases, the vetting process has focused on this court as well as other high courts such as the Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ). In her press conference, the President noted numerous high profile corruption cases with trials nearing a decade in duration. She called on an urgent extension of the vetting process to the lower courts so that judges to not feel that they are perpetually exempt from scrutiny - and therefore comfortable taking indefinite payments for prolonging the trial.

Additionally, the President called attention to the new role Transnistria is playing in justice saying:

“Another issue I want to address – an issue widely followed and discussed in society these days, is the fact that people awaiting their sentence leave the territory controlled by the constitutional authorities before it is pronounced. The Transnistrian region is increasingly used to evade serving their sentence. And the procedures for searching for the convicted person are ineffective, because they involve terms that jeopardize the possibility of locating the person and thus, the chance for him to be brought before the courts to be served justice is lost.”

A Serial Killer in Anenii Noi?

On December 24th the Moldovan police put out a press release indicating that they may have caught a serial killer. Details began to emerge over the following weeks but the picture remains far from complete.

The story begins in September of 2025 in the town of Beriozchi, Anenii Noi, when a 61 year old man named “Gheorghe” went missing. The man’s wife notified the police who quickly suspected local farmer Stepan Gaina and went to talk with him. Gaina has an extensive violent criminal record dating from the early 90s and is known as something of the town thug. Over time he purchased a number of adjoining properties and ran a farm along with his son and girlfriend.

Police questioned Stepan Gaina who said that he had not seen Gheorghe for 6 months. Police later found video from a shop camera showing Gheorghe walking down the street the day before with Stepan Gaina and entering his house. That was the last anyone saw of him.

When confronted by Gheorghe’s wife who threatened to open a missing persons case, Gaina ominously replied:

“there is no body - there is no case, especially with the way our police work.”

Apparently, he was wrong. Chief of the national police Viorel Cernăuțeanu gave an interview in late December where he explained that they strongly suspected Stepan Gaina from the start but felt that the existing circumstantial evidence would not hold up in court. So the police decided to send an undercover cop to pose as a farm hand and observe Stepan Gaina. This undercover investigation led to a large scale raid and search of the property on December 22nd and was later followed by this statement from the Chief Viorel Cernăuțeanu:

“At the same time, we equipped his household with special equipment so that we could see absolutely everything that was happening and to exclude the risks to the infiltrated person [the undercover cop],”

“As part of the measures, new suspicions arose regarding the commission of the crime of murder in relation to other people, and this terrifying fact was confirmed that, in order to destroy the traces and all evidence, people were being used as food for pigs.”

Emphasis mine.

The police are not currently saying how many murders they suspect were carried out on this farm but have indicated that there were at least 3. They have removed 30+ tons of material from the farm for searches - including land to sift through for evidence. They noted that the property is large and the search will take some time. The 33 year old son of Stepan Gaina was arrested while trying to flee the country - police say that they suspect him in a crime committed with his father dating back to 2012-2013.

We’ll check back in with this story as the police release more updates.

Economics / Infrastructure

Here’s a roundup of the top economics / infrastructure stories of the past weeks:

• The Straseni-Gutinas high voltage line will be constructed by American companies. This was confirmed by Moldova’s Ambassador to the United States Vladislav Kulminski who said that the project “isn’t charity at all; it’s a partnership.” He noted that the $130 million dollar project is among the largest approved under the Trump administration and that it signaled strong support for Moldova as well as a future based on win-win style projects. Recall, the Straseni-Gutinas high voltage line is the 3rd of 3 planned interconnections between Moldova and Romania. It was previously funded by USAID with construction planned to start in late 2025 and finish by 2029. When the money was reallocated in mid-September, American officials had stated only that American companies should get a fair shake at the opportunity to implement the project. Moldovan officials would say that using American companies was not a condition of the grant. Ambassador Kulminski has more or less spelled out the unspoken assumption that underpinned those statements.

• Experts project economic growth in 2026. The IMF projects 2.3% GDP growth in 2026 to rise to 3.7% by 2028, while the Ministry of Economy projects rates of 2.4% and 3.6% respectively. While the IMF notes that the forecast is subject to "significant uncertainty," other experts who spoke with Newsmaker expressed confidence that the economy would return to moderate growth in 2026.

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Is Transnistria Preparing for War?

Last week Ukrainian news outlet Ukrinform reported that Transnistria was preparing for war. They wrote:

“In particular, mobilization measures have been intensified in the territory of the so-called PMR [Transnistria] - reservists are being called up to military formations of quasi-formations, and weapons are being deconserved in warehouses.

Also, UAV production and drone operator training centers have been launched in Transnistria.”

They went on to write that the goal was to divert Ukrainian resources and destabilize Moldova. Ukrinform cited an unnamed source in the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

Initially, Moldovan government sources were slow to comment on the story leaving local outlets to print it with a “no comment” from relevant agencies. This was reversed the following day (December 11th) with Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatîi stating:

“The very existence of this uncontrolled territory, the illegal presence of the Russian Federation, its forces on our territory is a possibility for manipulation on this topic and discussions. The fact that state institutions are not present there, do not monitor, do not follow all activities gives an opportunity to come up with such statements.

“What is related to mobilization activities or how it was said that weapons are already being received and so on is an exaggeration, it is not so. The fact that activities are being carried out in the region is correct and they have constantly carried out all kinds of activities,”

Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Valeriu Chiveri further clarified saying:

“Relevant agencies are responsible for security issues. Our colleagues working in this area have not recorded any actions different from those that occurred previously”

A government source, speaking to Moldova Matters stated that they see nothing unusual in the region and that the situation is calm.

Recall: in late February 2024 a series of reports (with poor sourcing) alleged that Transnistria would soon request annexation from Russia. This never happened, but triggered a media firestorm in the Western press - as it was intended to. Its unclear what the origin of this most recent story is, but it is worth remember that the Kremlin has successfully planted stories in the past with the sole purpose of inspiring panic in newsrooms that are not well informed about Moldovan affairs. Here’s a link to that 2024 article:

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Other Transnistria and Security News:

Here’s a roundup of the other top stories about the region:

• Moldova will try and decouple EU integration and reunification. This was stated by Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Valeriu Chiveri last week while speaking at a conference addressing human rights in the region. He stated:

“We will do everything possible to ensure the reintegration process is dynamic and produces results. At the same time, we understand that it requires a longer period than we allot for the start of accession negotiations and, possibly, for EU integration. We will, frankly, try to separate these two processes,”

• Transnistria introduced a new state of emergency. From December 15th gas supplies will be restricted with priority given to household use. This will result in a reduction in supply to heavy industry. “Officials” in the region blamed this on a “a decrease in the rate of settlement transactions within the European Union.” This tracks with past stories that Russia’s complex workaround payment structure for this EU gas has caused problems with some banks and other financial institutions delaying payments as they check for sanctions compliance.

• A holiday trick from Sheriff? On November 17th the Transnistrian authorities announced that the Sheriff holding company would provide a holiday support payment of 200 Transnistrian rubles1 for all the region’s pensioners. In total this would cost the company 30 million rubbles or around $1.86 million USD. On December 2nd the funds started going out, but a few days later pensioners began reporting that they were taken back. Floods of bank statements showing a neat 200 ruble credit, followed a few days after by a 200 ruble debit were posted online. No official announcements have come from either the regional “authorities” or the company as to what is going on.

Parliament Passes the Budget

On December 12th Parliament passed the 2026 budget in the first reading. The budget envisions revenues of 79.67 billion lei (+5%) and expenses of 100.57 billion lei (+7%), resulting in a budget deficit of 20.9 billion lei. The government stated that the emphasis of this budget was on capital investments, which were increased by 35.6% to 3 billion lei.

The budget included the following notable changes in taxation:

• The zero percent tax on re-invested profits for small and medium sized companies was extended through 20262.

• The VAT registration threshold for companies was raised from 1.2 to 1.5 million lei3.

• VAT refunds for farmers will be simplified and sped up

• Individuals will be eligible for a new mortgage interest tax deduction. Borrowers who have not benefited from government subsidy programs (such as Prima Casa) will be able to deduct mortgage interest of up to 16,100 lei / year from their income tax.

• The education expense tax credit will be expanded to a 20,000 lei / year limit and will apply to the whole family. Previously, parents could deduct education related expenses for their children, but not it will apply to adult learning as well.

It’s worth noting that areas that did involve tax breaks (e.g. the raising of the VAT threshold) have in no way kept up with inflation. In this case, as in other taxes that used fixed thresholds, taxes have effectively increased over the past 6 years - even with these changes.

Taxing Temu?

One contentious issue hanging over the budget is Temu - China’s massive online marketplace. The app has exploded in popularity in Moldova and across Europe in recent years. This has largely been due to how cheap it is - most items offer free delivery from China to Moldova. Other similar platforms like Shein operate on similar (aka highly subsidized) business models. These parcels are not taxed in Moldova (or most countries) that operate with a “de-minimis” threshold under which shipments are tax exempt. In Moldova this threshold is €150 euros.

Members of parliament have signaled that taxes will be coming in 2026, and which we don’t have any news in this budget we now have some indications from the Ministry of Finance how this will work. Minister Andrian Gavriliță spoke to Newsmaker and indicated that the tax structure would be as follows:

• 20% VAT

• 5-10% customs duties (depending on the product)

• an unspecified “package fee” for all parcels from foreign market places

Explaining the thinking, the Minister stated:

“The goal isn’t to eliminate cheap goods. No, we must ensure that consumers have access to affordable goods. Many order clothing. This allows both children and adults to dress better and afford more. This must be preserved. But at the same time, we must reduce the unfair competition that exists, so access to low-cost goods must include a fair tax that businesses pay when importing,”

According to Minister Gavriliță, right now more than 50,000 packages enter the country daily. He noted that experts predict 2-3 billion extra lei in yearly taxes from this potential change.

Critically, Minister Gavriliță claims that individuals will not have to register their purchases and pay taxes themselves. He suggested that the government would work with the platforms so that the companies withhold the taxes and pay it themselves.

The plan is to introduce these taxes in 2026.

The Temu and Shein problem is not unique to Moldova. With China subsidizing shipping and manufacturing, cheap goods are flooding the European market. Romania has also recently announced a flat tax of 25 RON (97 MDL / €4.89 euro) per incoming package below their €150 euro de-minimis threshold. They note that around 78 million parcels of non-EU products are projected to enter the country in 2025 tax free. Their tax comes into play on January 1st, but might be replaced soon because…

The EU itself also announced an agreement on December 12th to impose a €3 euro tax on incoming parcels under €150 euros starting in July. This tax would apply to each type of product in a package (aka, if you buy 4 pairs of headphones you pay €3, but if you buy a pair of headphones and a toothbrush you pay €6). The EU announced this as a stopgap measure that will come into effect in July. They are working on plans to scrap the de-minimis threshold completely, but acknowledged that the customs infrastructure is not prepared to understand the valuations of all of these parcels and impose taxes on the end users yet.

Moldova’s approach of asking the platforms themselves to implement the country’s complex tax code is the “boldest” approach - and the one with the highest taxes. We’ll see how well it holds up against the reality of negotiating with these huge companies.

Other Political Updates

Here’s a roundup of the other top political stories of the week.

• Mayor Ceban wants to drug test all the teenagers in Chisinau. The Mayor, who has been urgently declaring an illicit drug emergency for weeks (without evidence), has proposed mandatory drug tests for all students in Chisinau schools over 13. He claimed that he himself just took a drug test and urged all elected officials to do so as well. Ceban claims that mass, mandatory school testing is the norm in the United States (it is not). He also suggested that exemptions would be granted if parents wanted to opt out. Minister of Education Dan Perciun responded saying:

“Implementing such a measure would mean forcing 107 thousand children to go through an intrusive and unnecessary procedure. (…) The practice of universal mandatory drug screening for all students does NOT exist in democratic states with high-performing educational systems. Where testing is done, it is always targeted, voluntary, strictly regulated and never applied en masse,”

• President Sandu appointed former Prime Minister Dorin Recean as a special envoy for development and resilience. The position has a mandate to “contribute to promoting inter-institutional and multi-sectoral efforts aimed at strengthening the state’s capacity to prevent and combat hybrid threats to national security.” It is unpaid and, like Nicu Popescu’s special envoy role, is somewhat unclear in scope.

• The state will take over Lukoil’s airport assets within 20 days. This was announced by Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu who noted that a 2005 agreement had allowed the company to operate the airport’s fuel terminal, and that a recent review by the Council for the Review of Investments Significant to National Security resulted in a refusal to extend the agreement.

The US Embassy keeps warning Moldova about “mass migration.”

This week the Embassy’s facebook page made a post stating that the Chargé d’Affaires met with Moldova’s Minister of Internal Affairs and stressed that migration leads to “serious crime and lawlessness.”

This is not the first time that the Chargé has “warned” Moldova of this “threat.” Unspoken is that fact that Moldova has very few immigrants and through the Moldovan diaspora is a source of migrants rather than a magnet for them.

This was the only official statement or readout of the meeting, causing a lot of discussion on social media. Some simply wondered what the US government is trying to say, and hard right accounts using it to boost various conspiracy theories and attack the Moldovan government. Minister of Internal Affairs Daniela Misail-Nikitin was forced to clarity, noting that the statement “does not directly relate to the situation in Moldova.” She stated that the Chargé “made this statement during the presentation of the new United States National Security Strategy, which considers mass migration as a risk factor in the context of U.S. national security priorities.”

For those who missed it I wrote about this strategy last week:

Ilan Shor and Hybrid War

Here’s a roundup of the top stories in Russia’s hybrid war of the week:

• A new Shor resignation. Balti municipal councilor Anastasia Svetlicinii resigned with a statement claiming that PAS was preventing their social projects and particularly the construction of a “NordLand” amusement park.

• OrheiLand amusement park will close (maybe?). After fleeing to Moscow months ago and resigning on December 2nd, Orhei ex-Mayor Tatiana Cociu announced on December 6th that the amusement park would be closed until “there will be no Sandu and PAS.” The acting Mayor Anastasia Țurcanu contested this saying that the park is on public land and managed by the city. She noted that its closed now due to the cold season but did not confirm that it would be closed permanently.

• Voter bribery cases reach 25,000 in Gagauzia alone. TVR Moldova reports that 4950 people paid fines (ranging from 37,000 to 57,500 lei) while the rest self denounced and agreed to cooperate (resulting in no fines). These fines relate to “humanitarian aid” delivered to pensioners and public sector employees in April 2024 by what Bashkan Gutsul called a “sponsor.”

Economics & Infrastructure

Over the last week the Moldovan government and power companies have been urging people to conserve energy - especially at peak hours. The reason isn't risk of power cuts but focused on price. Russia’s attacks against the Ukrainian power grid have forced Ukraine to rely more and more on imported electricity from the EU. Moldova and Ukraine are each allocated a certain amount of electricity that they are allowed to buy from Romania. Very often, Moldova needs more than its allocation and Ukraine needs less - meaning that Moldova uses some of Ukraine’s capacity. With Ukraine’s power grid stretched to the limit both countries are exceeding their import limits.

This is basically a billing question. When Moldova imports power above the agreed limits it is forced to request emergency supply and pay emergency prices - around €400 euros / MW. So far, Moldova hasn’t had to request too much emergency supply - but the message from the government is clear: conserve power so prices don’t rise.

The end of an era? Not quite. The fugitive oligarch signaled that he’s wrapping up operations in Moldova. Experts see a change in the Kremlin’s strategy.

On December 1st Ilan Shor broadcast a video message where he stood against a gray background and announced the closure of his “social projects” in Moldova. In it he said (in part):

“Today, with a heavy heart, I announce that I am forced to close my social projects in Moldova, which have helped people survive all this time. [...] The funds we transfer are being completely blocked, our employees are being arrested - you all see and know this,”

“We are creating a common national front that will resist. [...] We will not abandon or forget our people. The second goal is to overthrow the regime. Assistance to people and social projects will resume in full as soon as the government, which persecutes people simply because we help them, changes,”

Shor claimed that over $50 million USD in social aid had been blocked by the government in the last 6 months alone.

Asked by Newsmaker for comment on the video, Presidential Press Secretary Igor Zakharov replied:

“We cannot comment on the lies of a convicted criminal who is hiding from justice in an authoritarian regime and is attempting to destabilize Moldova with dirty money,”

What Social Programs?

Over the last decade Shor’s network sought to built a popular movement by providing various services to the rural poor. Many of these were simply aspects of his voter bribery networks, but some included programs for subsidized utilities and other costs in the areas his party controlled. Most visible was his “Merișor” network of shops (some mobile) that sold products at or below market cost to pensioners (while largely ignoring food safety requirements).

Shor’s announcement that these programs were being shuttered was immediately followed by signals that parts of his broader network was also closing up shop.

Mayors Resign

On December 2nd, one day after Shor’s announcement, Orhei Mayor Tatiana Cociu announced her resignation. If you recall, she’s been missing now for months and was rumored to be in Moscow hiding from the Moldovan authorities.

Following her announcement, on December 3rd Taraclia Mayor Veaceslav Lupov also announced his resignation. He also claimed that the “authorities” were blocking their social projects and promised to return after “the fall of the Sandoval regime.” Local media outlet Tuk had just recently reported that Mayor Lupov had also not been to work in some time. Apparently, on June 2nd he flew to Istanbul before heading on to Moscow. He never returned. In that time he had been digitally signing papers and after he burned through all his paid vacation filed for unpaid leave 10 times.

The End of the Shor Era?

All this news started a lot of speculation that Shor is out of favor in the Kremlin after having lost the parliamentary elections. Various pundits suggested that the closure of these projects, mayoral resignations and the ongoing political realignment in Gagauzia indicate that the Shor network is ending.

Asked about this, President Sandu stated:

“Unfortunately, I don’t think Moscow is changing its attitude toward Moldova. We would like to have normal relations, we would like to be sure that the Kremlin doesn’t interfere in our internal affairs, but as we’ve seen in recent years, including after the elections, the Kremlin’s attitude hasn’t changed,”

Experts interviewed by Newsmaker all believed that this represents a change in tactics by the Kremlin - not a change in goals. Valeriu Pașa of Watchdog pulled back the camera and looked at the development in regional terms saying:

“Russia is preparing for a hybrid war of attrition against the pro-European idea in the Republic of Moldova, and voter corruption is too expensive to maintain until the next elections. All Russian investments will now go into propaganda and proxy parties,

Let’s not interpret Shor’s reduction in activities in the Republic of Moldova as his removal from the Kremlin’s favor. The Shor group has become very active in Kyrgyzstan, where elections are coming up. Similarly, the so-called Eurasia organization is quite active in Armenia, where important parliamentary elections will be held in 2026. Probably, budgets will also be directed primarily towards these states”

So is that the end of the Shor network in Moldova? Most likely not. But it’s very possible that Ilan Shor will no longer be the face of Kremlin interference in Moldova.

Perhaps the newsletter section titled “Shor & Hybrid War Updates” will just become “Hybrid War Update.” We’ll se…

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Drone Incursions Close Moldovan Airspace

On the night of November 29th two drones again entered Moldovan airspace. Their flights took them over central Moldova and resulted in the temporary closure of the national airspace leading to flight delays. The drones were tracked by the Ministry of Defense’s Aviation Operations Service in collaboration with Moldovan and Ukrainian border guards. They were not detected on Moldovan radars. You can see the approximate flight path as published on the nightly map of attacks against Ukraine:

The drones disrupted air traffic leading a flight from Barcelona to Chisinau to divert to Bacău, Romania. Other flights faced ground delays or landing delays as they waited outside affected airspace.

Moldova joins the growing list of European countries that are forced to shut down their airports for a time due to Russian drone incursions. This week Vilnius airport shut down due to a suspicious balloon. While Russia allegedly has launched drone incursions in Western Europe from “civilian” shipping, Moldova’s proximity to the nightly bombardment of Ukraine means it is easy to divert a few drones across Moldova. Its important to note that the intensity of drone attacks against Ukraine has not increased in recent weeks - but the number that stray into Moldova has changed, at exactly the same time Western European countries grapple with the same issue.

The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, responded to the news out of Moldova with a post on X saying:

“Violations of Moldovan airspace by Russian drones are unacceptable and threaten civilian air traffic. This year, the EU will invest €20 million in Moldova’s air defense to strengthen the country’s security. Moldova’s skies cannot become a victim of a war unleashed by Russia,”

When you find a drone you should…

…NOT take it home. Unfortunately, that’s what a man did in a small village in Sîngerei this week. The man found a drone in a field that crashed on November 29th and on December 3rd he decided to take it home.

Alarmed, villagers noticed a man towing a drone behind his motobloc (2 wheeled tractor) and they called the mayor - who then called the police. Mayor Oleg Cernei stated that the man had acted “out of ignorance” and in a later interview, the man, named Gheorghe Manoilă, stated:

“I thought of it like this in my head to bring it to Town Hall. I said: ‘It’s a plane, it’s definitely a plane’. What, do I know what it is? I’ve never seen it before...”

Police determined that it was an unarmed1 Gerbera drone, and noted that Mr. Manoilă had already disassembled it and all the components were found at his house. Police remind people not to approach suspicious objects and to call the authorities.

Other Security and Defense News

Here’s a roundup of the other top recent security related stories:

• The EU donated €5 million euros of non-lethal vehicles to the Moldovan army. They included busses, trucks, minivans and SUVs. The EU says that they are meant to help in the modernization of the Moldovan army.

• The Moldovan army “acquired” Scorpion self-propelled mortars. There was no official announcement of this fact, or information about where they came from or what they (might have) cost. Instead, the Moldovan army released a video with the hashtag #modernizare (modernization) showing them in action. An analysis of the video by journalists at RFE/RL counted around 20 Scorpion systems. Scropion (also called Alakran) is made in Spain and is a fully digital mortar system deployed in the back of any 2 ton 4x4 pickup truck (Toyotas in Moldova’s case). It has swappable 81 mm and 120 mm barrels with a range of 6.5 km and 8 km respectively. Targeting is entirely handled by a computer and the system is designed for shoot-and-scoot operations. It can stop driving, fire 8 rounds, and get back on the road in 2 minutes. The Ministry of Defense refused to comment for RFE/RL citing state secrets.

• The Moldovan army “acquired” ATMOS self-propelled artillery systems. Just as with the Scorpions, the Army posted a video on youtube showing exercises with new artillery systems. Analysis have identified them as ATMOS 2000 Israeli made 155 mm truck mounted artillery systems. The video shows at least 4 systems, but RFE/RL reported that the firm that makes the ATMOS 2000 had announced a $102 million dollar contract in 2023 from an unnamed “international client.” Depending on the negotiated price, this contract could represent 10-15 ATMOS 2000 systems. This has been identified as most likely a “discrete purchase” by the Moldovan army. The ATMOS system has a 30 km range with traditional artillery shells or 41 km with rocket assisted shells. It can fire 4-9 rounds / minute.

• The Moldovan Amy participated in Romania’s National Unity Day military parade in Bucharest. Elements of the Honor Guard Company & 22nd Peacekeeping Battalion attended.

• Addressing the drone incursions, President Sandu stated that “there are no magic solutions.” She explained that they are working with partners to buy more radars, but that “simply detecting it isn’t enough; we need to be able to defend ourselves.” The President also condemned “politicians who misinform and manipulate” and stated that only by acknowledging the dangers head on can the country begin to find solutions.

• President Sandu presented the Democratic Resilience Plan for 2026–2027. The plan, which is largely a set of short bullet points, can be found online here. According to the Presidential Administration:

“The plan was developed based on the experience of the last three elections, a period in which Moldova was the target of unprecedented foreign interference: illegal financing of political activities, disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and attempts to destabilize public order. 

To address these risks, the document provides for measures to strengthen information security, more efficient financial monitoring, strengthen cyber defense capabilities, and improve cooperation between responsible institutions. Some of the actions represent classified information, so as not to compromise the state’s protection mechanisms.”

Political Updates

Here’s a roundup of the top politics stories of the week:

• Prime Minister Munteanu presented the 2026 budget. In his announcement he highlighted an increase in investments saying “for the first time in history, capital investments increase by 55%. We have an allocation of up to three billion lei.” He also stated that the minimum wage will be increased from 5,500 lei to 6,300 lei. Minister of Finance Andrian Gavriliță gave a press conference walking through elements of the budget. There he noted that the projected budget deficit in 2026 will amount to 5.5% of GDP saying “I must admit, the deficit is not small, but it is important to emphasize that about half of this deficit will go into investments.”

• PAS MPs registered a bill for economic stimulus for small and medium (SME) sized companies. In the bill, they propose maintaining the “zero rate” of tax on reinvested profits for some categories of SMEs through 2026. They also propose increasing the VAT threshold from 1.2 million lei to 1.5 million lei2. Recall, just this week Moldova Matters published a translated piece from former Minister of Economy Dumitru Alaiba where he advocated for making this tax policy permanent, and for expanding it to businesses of all sizes.

• The Ministry of Education announced school consolidations3. For those unfamiliar with the local school system see this footnote4 for terminology. Gymnasiums with 35 students of fewer will shed grades 5-9 which will be bussed to a larger school. Primary schools with fewer than 30 students will be merged with kindergartens, becoming Primary School-Kindergartens. If an Primary School-Kindergartens has fewer than 10 students it will become only a kindergarten (with primary student bussing to a larger school). Regardless of size, all kindergartens will be retained. The Ministry also assured that no reorganizations will take place unless the bussing school is fewer than 20 km away and teaches in the same language. These changes will affect 73 schools with 1328 students total (out of 330,000 students in Moldova). The Ministry has noted that tiny village schools5 vastly underperform on test scores and other educational outcomes, and it’s working to move students to better performing larger schools. This process will be conducted yearly in December to make preparations for the next school year.

• Energy compensation rates have been announced for winter 2025-2026. The maximum compensation will be 1000 lei / month with the minimum set at 500 lei. The compensation will vary based on the type of hear and eligibility. The government has allocated 2.36 billion lei to pay compensation this cold season.

Crime and Corruption

Here’s a roundup of the top justice sector stories of the week:

• Plaha appears in court. On December 2nd Plahotniuc made his first appearance at his ongoing trial to make a statement and open the defense case. In his lengthy statement he claims his innocence, promised to prove it and complained about the case complexity. He stated that he had been preparing his defense from prison and complained about only being allowed one phone call a week and no access to a computer saying “I’ve never done so much mental calculation in my life.” His lawyers had previously submitted a list of 58 defense witnesses to call, Plahotniuc overruled this and submitted 168 names. He previewed his defense as follows: 1) If he captured the state then it stands to reason that all MPs, judges, prime ministers, etc from this period worked for him and will say so under questioning. So he wants to call them as witnesses. 2) He took umbrage at the allegation that he organized the theft of the billion but only profited around 18 million lei from it - the implication being that he would have profited much more if he was the real organizer6. The panel of judges listed to his statement, and approved 27 of his requested 168 witnesses.

• Anti-Corruption police (CNA) and prosecutors announced a criminal investigation into public procurement at Chisinau City Hall. Raids targeted the head of the General Directorate for Housing and Communal Development, Ion Burdiumov, 2 department heads and 3 businessmen. Prosecutors seized more than 3 million lei in cash and released wire tap transcripts outlining the scheme whereby corrupt officials received kickbacks for awarding city contracts. Ion Burdiumov is a member of the National Council of Mayor Ceban’s MAN party, and his wife is a city councilor for the party. Responding to the news, Mayor Ceban claimed that these raids only happened “After I announced that we would be discussing the alarming growth of the national debt.” Apparently implying that the searches, wiretaps and 3 million lei in cash were a distraction from a planned vertical video about the 2026 budget.

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Moldova and Romania Bid Farewell to Ilie Ilaşcu

Ilie Ilaşcu, aged 73, passed away on November 17th in Bucharest. Ilaşcu was the founder of the National Liberation Movement of Bessarabia (1988 - 1992) and became a symbol of Moldovan and Romanian resistance to the abuses of the Transnistrian “authorities.” Living in Tiraspol Ilaşcu campaigned for the 35,000 ethnically and linguistically Romanian residents (17% of the city’s population at the time) who had no schools or other public facilities in their native language. He led the Tiraspol branch of the Popular Front of Moldova from 1989 until it was liquidated by the Transnistrian “authorities” in 1992.

During the war he fought behind the lines with a special purpose military unit under the Ministry of National Security of the Republic of Moldova. In 1992 he was arrested along with other leaders of the group in Tiraspol by elements of the Soviet / Russian 14th Army and sentenced to death.

While in prison, Ilie Ilașcu was elected to the Moldovan parliament and became an MP from 1994-2000 during his prison tenure. He was then elected to the Romanian parliament and became a Romanian parliamentary delegate to the Council of Europe - all while sitting in a Tiraspol prison. After 9 years in prison he was released following international diplomatic pressure. In later life he served as a Romanian Senator before retiring from public life in Bucharest.

On his passing, Romanian President Nicușor Dan stated:

“Today we say goodbye to a patriot who believed and acted without hesitation for a dream of union and freedom. Ilie Ilașcu, an example of uprightness and courage, reminds us that the fight for national identity and dignity is worth the price, no matter how high it may be,”

“When we refer to heroes, we often think of those who sacrificed themselves in the past to preserve freedom. However, Ilie Ilașcu was a contemporary hero with us, a symbol of Romanian resistance in the separatist Transnistrian region who, faced with terrible threats and long years of political detention, remained steadfast and was not afraid to risk everything for his ideal,”

President Sandu declared November 20th a day of national mourning and Speaker Grosu commemorated Ilașcu saying:

“We said goodbye to Ilie Ilașcu, who will remain in the collective memory a symbol of the fight for the sovereignty and integrity of our country. He had a difficult and unjust fate. We are obliged to learn from the lesson that his courage transmitted to us. May God rest him in peace,”

One of the most potent commemorations was a piece written by ZdG journalist and co-founder Alina Radu, titled “Ilie Ilașcu. Homage.” In it she published excerpts of dozens of letters she exchanged with Ilașcu during his tenure in prison.

Ilie Ilașcu was buried with military honors in Bucharest.

Political News

Here’s a roundup of the top political stories of the last week:

• Prime Minister Munteanu attended the EU enlargement forum November 17-18 in Brussels. There he touted the tangible results of Moldova’s closer relationship with the EU starting:

“ Almost the entire banking sector has integrated into the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA), which allows for transfers to European countries with significantly reduced fees. At the same time, from January 1, Moldovans will benefit from “Roaming like at home” throughout the European Union.”

• Governor of the National Bank Anca Dragu released early data on SEPA integration. She noted that in the 1 month since Moldova joined the payments area, transactions between Moldovan entities and the EU have increased by €300 million euros (to over €1.3 billion), of which 50% were by individuals. The lower transaction fees resulted in €1.4 million euros of savings for individuals and companies.

• Mayor Ceban announced plans to finally seal off the Hotel National. Following the tragic death of a 13 year old girl in the derelict building, and many attempts to deflect blame to the national government, the mayor has ordered a fence to be build and security cameras installed. City Hall is also looking to create a plan for other dangerous buildings in the city as well.

• Mayor Ceban called on the government to declare a state of emergency regarding illicit drug use. He cited a 6% increase in the number of people registering for addiction treatment over the last 2 years as evidence of a crisis1.

Crime & Corruption

Here’s a roundup of the top justice sector stories of the week:

• On November 19th a court ruled that Plahotniuc will remain in preventative custody for another 30 days. Under Moldovan law the custody order must be reviewed monthly. Prosecutors continue to argue that he is a flight risk, while the oligarch’s lawyers claim that there is no evidence of this2.

• A London court has delayed extradition hearings for Veaceslav Platon. The fugitive oligarch was supposed to be in court on November 24-28, but his lawyers successfully argued for more time to examine his case. Hearings are now scheduled for May 11-15. Platon was arrested in March of this year and released on £330,000 pounds bail in July.

• Tricia McLaughlin, Deputy Secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security, announced the arrest and pending deportation of Moldovan fugitive Victoria Sorocean. In September 2013 Sorocean and an accomplice were convicted of murder and sentenced to 17 years in prison. She and her accomplice tortured their victim with beatings and using an electrical chord before they threw her out of the window of a 9th story apartment building. ICE first arrested Sorocean in 2020, but she was released in 2022 pending an appeal for asylum. She will now be deported to Moldova to serve her sentence.

• Igor Dodon’s trial in the Kuliok case will restart from scratch. In June 2025 one of the judges on the 2 judge panel was elevated to a seat on the Constitutional Court causing a pause in the trial. A new judge has been appointed and the Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ) ruled that the judicial investigation should be restarted. The first hearing is scheduled for November 25th.

Economics & Infrastructure

Here’s a roundup of the top energy stories of the week:

• A mini-scandal has unfolded with state energy company Energocom. Following the handover of natural gas sales operations from MoldovaGaz to Energocom, tens of thousands of consumers reported highly inflated energy bills. This resulted in numerous accusations against the government and not a few conspiracy theories. The company explained that local distributors are responsible for reading the gas meters, and when they are unable to access the meter, utilities are billed at an average consumption rate from past years of the same period. With unusually warm temperatures this year this resulted in many consumers getting inflated bills. Energocom has asked affected users to contact them if they are concerned and assured that rates will automatically be corrected once the next meter reading occurs.

• The Ministry of Energy announced that the Vulcănești-Chișinău high-voltage power line is 99% complete. The last pillars and last kilometer of line are currently being installed. In order to be put into use, the Chisinau 330 kV Power Station and Vulcănești 400 kV Power Station must also be upgraded. These are at 78% and 58% completion respectively. Following the completion of the power stations a 60 day gradual power up and test period will begin. This leaves it unclear if the line can be operated in an emergency this winter, but the work is largely proceeding on schedule. Once completed, the 157 km power line will carry 630 MVA of power, 50% of the country’s peak use.

Ending on a High Note!

This week students Arsenie and Arina Chițanu, 6th and 4th grade respectively, made a fascinating archeological find. The students of the Nicolae Kasso Lyceum in Chiscareni, Sîngerei District found an ancient carved figurine of the Cucuteni–Trypillia culture. The Cucuteni–Trypillia peoples built a neolithic civilization centered on modern day Moldova from 5050 to 1950 BC. They are known for their pottery and the vast quantity of figurines they produced - modernly thought to be statues of a goddess. Representatives from the National Agency for Archeology thanked the children and their geography teacher for the find. The figuring will be donated to the Museum of History and Ethnography of the city of Sîngerei.

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Multiple Drones Violate Moldovan Airspace

On the night of November 18-19 a small, unarmed drone violated Moldovan airspace when it flew near the village of Saiți, Causeni, before re-entering Ukrainian airspace. It flew at low altitude, approximately 100 meters, and was therefore not picked up by Moldovan radars. On the same night a drone entered Romanian airspace and flew for around 8 km, where it also allegedly crossed into parts of Moldova and Ukraine.

Analysts were unclear whether these were 2 different drones or the same one. What is clear is that the drone passed close to the strategically vital Vulcănești power station. This station is the starting point of the Vulcănești-Chisinau high voltage line which is currently under construction (updates in part 2 on the progress). In response to the air incursion in Romania NATO scrambled 4 fighter jets, 2 Romanian and 2 German.

A much larger incursion took place on the night of November 24-25, where the Moldovan army’s airspace surveillance systems detected 6 drones entering the country’s airspace. This was in the context of a massive Russian bombardment of Ukraine that night.

The first drone was reportedly a Shahed which passed through Moldova to Romania around Vinogradovca - Vulcănești. 5 more entered Moldova’s airspace all across the North and East of the country in Dondușeni, Orhei, Bender, Vadul lui Vodă and Florești.

One drone crash landed on the roof of a house in Cuhurestii de Jos, Floresti district.

Police evacuated the area, which was an isolated house in a field used by agricultural workers. Following an inspection it was found to have no explosive payload. The authorities identified it as a Russian Gerbera (wikipedia) drone.

Gerbera drones are generally used as decoys. They are lightweight (18 kg) and indistinguishable from a Shahed or Geran-2 on radar. Gerbera drones can carry around 5-10 kg of TNT and they also have surveillance capabilities. Even the decoys often carry a camera to record Ukrainian air defense positions and report this intelligence back to inform future attacks.

On the same night another drone of unknown type crash landed in the yard of a man’s house in the town of Puiești in Vaslui County Romania. On the map below you can see that this is nowhere near Ukraine.

Reactions to the Drone Incursion

Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a “firm” condemnation to the Russian Ambassador Designate1 after the first drone incursion. Following the larger incursion the Ministry has again summoned the Russian Ambassador Designate to lodge an official complaint. The Russians denied that it was their drone and alleged that Moldova put it there intentionally as a false-flag operation.

Reactions from pro-Russian political parties and politicians in Moldova was swift. Igor Dodon called the drone attack staged saying:

“Have you seen how PAS is trying to cover up recent scandals? Today, they carefully placed a drone on the roof of a building”

This builds on a mass of narratives circulating on Kremlin-linked social media claiming that it is impossible that the drone landed so neatly on a roof like that2. Socialist MPs reposted AI images of the drone being placed on the roof from pro-Kremlin Telegram channels, while Mayor Ceban blamed the government for failing to communicate clearly about the situation3. MPs from Democracy at Home (PPDA) accused the government of “dramatizing” the situation.

Former Minister of Economy Dumitru Alaiba responded posting:

“We live on the border with the bloodiest war on the continent in the last 80 years. (…) I am concerned by the comments of those who hint at conspiracies and say it was staged. Some do so out of ignorance (not to say stupidity). Others do so because they follow and promote the agenda of Russian propaganda, which will continue to try to convince us that war is not war and that Russia is not the aggressor. Four years of war, and they still deny the obvious,”

Border Guards Stop a Truck Filled With Weapons

On November 20th at 1:30 am a truck that claimed to be carrying scrap metal entered the Leușeni-Albița border crossing between Moldova and Romania. It was flagged as suspicious by a Moldovan customs officer and sent for a scan by Romanian officers. The scan found that the truck was carrying weapons and ammunition. According to later reporting by the Moldovan Prosecutor General’s office this included:

• 18 items of “ammunition components”

• 8 items of “complete ammunition”

• A surface to air launcher

• A Geran 2 drone. “consisting of multiple parts disassembled after being shot down, showing shrapnel in the separation areas, with the engine detached on the drone – without any items of pyrotechnic interest.”

The Romanian authorities arrested the truck driver, who claims that he did not know what he was transporting. Moldovan authorities announced on November 22nd that they arrested 3 additional people in the case, the customs broker, the head of the transport company and the company administrator.

On November 26th the Prosecutor General’s office released the following statement about the source of the weapons:

“According to the investigation, these ammunitions were smuggled into the territory of the Republic of Moldova with the help of a carrier, who regularly traveled by freight truck from Ukraine. The munitions were taken over through several trips, which involved transporting two units of ammunition, taken from an unidentified warehouse in Ukraine, from unknown persons. They were brought in a camouflaged manner to the Republic of Moldova, from where they were soon taken over by several accomplices,”

According to the customs documents the truck was bound for Israel.

Facts First

The story was first broken by Romanian outlet Antena 3 CNN and pro-Russian politicians in Moldova, as well as Russian media outlets, managed to provide lots of commentary before the Moldovan government started providing details. This left a *very* muddled situation in the first days of this story. We’ll go through that, but first let’s focus on 2 key facts:

1. Leușeni-Albița is a joint customs point. This means that when you stop your car you deal with both Moldovan and Romanian officers at the same location. As such, the 2 sides work as a team and don’t overlap competencies. At this crossing it is the Romanians who have the truck scanner.

2. The weapons were Russian / Soviet. They were 18 portable anti-tank missiles (likely 9M133 Kornet / 9K111 Fagot), 8 anti-tank grenade launchers (likely RPG-26 / RPG-27), a man portable air defense system (MANPADS - likely a 9K38 Igla), and parts of a Geran 2 drone. “Likely” here means that this is the identification of weapons experts from the photos, not officially confirmed by the prosecutors office.

The truck belongs to a company called S.P.-SOLAR SISTEM SRL which deals in furniture and construction materials. Company founder Veaceslav Pîrvu has said that he knew nothing about the weapons and that a friend asked him to export cargo through his company since it had a license4.

Conspiracies Abound

Immediately a flurry of mis- and dis-information exploded across the internet. Many opposition figures fixated on the fact that the weapons were found with the Romanian truck scanner, alleging that the Moldovan side was either incompetent or corrupt when they let the truck through. By the time the new director of customs clarified that a Moldovan officer flagged the truck for the scan with the joint customs equipment, this narrative was widespread. Igor Dodon claimed that this was an indication that the West is dragging Moldova into war. Mayor Ceban claimed it was a case of clear incompetence and seemed to allege that it was somehow linked to drug smuggling (in which he implies the government would also be complicit).

Renato Usatii took the biggest leap by holding a press conference and announcing that the MANPADS system in the truck was an FIM-92 Stinger, provided by the United States to Ukraine. As “proof” he brought a picture of a stinger he printed off from the internet.

This then crossed over into Russian disinformation networks which produced 37 english language articles in 48 hours. Mainstream Russian outlets also focused on the story heavily - all quoting Usatii about the Stinger.

What’s Going on Here?

Watchdog did an analysis of the timeline and spread of these narratives - you can find it here in English. They state that the entire event has “all the hallmarks of a false flag operation.” Meaning, that their experts believe that the whole thing - from the truck to the weapons - was a setup for an information operation. Watchdog notes that 2 narratives emerged immediately from this story:

1. The Internal Narrative - The Moldovan government is corrupt and complicit in selling drugs and arms trafficking.

2. The External Narrative - Ukraine is corrupt and is selling American weapons. All aid should be stopped.

Usatii’s allegation that there was an American Stinger was key in how Russian outlets and disinformation botnets spread information about this story.

Watchdog claims that their analysis of the timing and spread of related disinformation suggests a pre-planned effort designed to spread the above narratives. Additionally, the internal story that showed serious weapons moving unchecked across the country is meant to spread fear and make Moldovans believe that their government cannot protect them from the war spilling over. They point to the fact that there is no logical reason why anyone would smuggle these weapons to Israel as further supporting the fact that these were not meant to get through customs.

Whether false flag, or just a convienent message for the Kremlin, this story has turned into a major scandal and source of claims and counterclaims.

Remaining Unknowns

The Prosecutor General’s announcement that the weapons were smuggled into Moldova from Ukraine “over several trips” raises serious questions about the Moldova-Ukraine border. It is likely that some of the people who have been arrested were either ignorant or acting as “disposable agents” for the Kremlin. At the same time, someone had to receive shipments of weapons in Moldova and combine them for “export to Israel” via Romania. We’ll come back with updates as the investigation continues.

The Moldova Security Forum

Last week the second annual Moldova Security Forum (MSF) was held in Chisinau, co-organized by the Institute for European Policy and Reform, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, the NATO Liaison Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

In an opening interview, President Sandu laid out the biggest security challenge facing Moldova right now. She stated:

“The most challenging task remains combating online disinformation, where Moldova has limited capabilities. Even if we tried to act independently, it could be perceived as undemocratic interference. We need the support of countries like the EU to develop policies that Moldova can implement against fake accounts and disinformation funded by Russia, which pose a serious threat to our democracy. In these matters, the democratic world must work with us to propose solutions. We can participate in discussions, but we cannot accomplish this alone,”

The forum brought together government representatives and experts from across Europe to discuss hybrid threats, civil emergency preparedness, cyber warfare and other increasingly relevant topics. Through speeches and panels a common narrative emerged from the event - Moldova is in need of security support, but it is also a security partner and provider. The country’s experience in dealing with these hybrid attacks is now being widely shared and discussed across Europe.

I attended the MSF and found that through the events and side conversations I walked away with much better insights into some of the key issues facing Moldova now. I’ll circle back to some of these discussions in future articles looking at specific topics such as Transnistria.

The “Ukraine Peace Plan”

Reacting to the “peace plan” that was (apparently) leaked by a Russian negotiator and then embraced by the Trump administration, President Sandu stated:

“Europe’s stability depends on Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and security being fully guaranteed. The unity and determination of all Ukraine’s partners are essential to ensure lasting peace,”

The entire situation with this “plan” is in such flux that it does little good to comment here. The 28 point plan has been replaced by a 24, 26 or 27 point plan from Europe, and a new 19 point plan from the US. It’s bewildering to follow and interested readers can find lots written about it online.

For anyone interested, I would like to recommend 3 interesting podcast discussions on the “plan” from 3 different British podcasts, namely:

1. The Rest is Politics: Could Trump’s Deal Finally Bring Peace to Ukraine? (youtube)

2. Behind the Lines with Arthur Snell: Ukraine Crisis: Will Trump Force Moscow’s Deal on Zelenskyy? (apple podcasts)

3. Ukraine The Latest: BREAKING: Zelensky ‘agrees’ to Trump’s amended peace deal – but is all as it seems? (youtube)

I’m recommending them because they each provide a European perspective on the chaos coming out of the White House. The hosts all grapple with the new “kremlinology” of trying to parse competing statements and reporting from the apparent internal factions led by Witkoff / Kushner, Marco Rubio and JD Vance - who all seem to be pursuing different agendas. All of this against the backdrop of Russian negotiators seeming to drive the narrative with careful leaks and statements and a demonstrated ability to shape outcomes from these groups.

All 3 episodes, but especially The Rest is Politics, make an increasingly loud case that all evidence points to the Trump administration actively supporting the Russian position and the need for Europe to start taking responsibility for its own future. The part of the “plan” where the US would act as a “neutral” mediator between NATO and Russia was a particular focus of discussion. The episode of Ukraine the Latest also discusses the drone incursions in Romania and Moldova.

I’ll also note here that at the Moldova Security Forum that absence of any US government representatives on panels was notable and impossible to imagine if this was held even 1 year ago.

At some future point I’ll write a stand alone article outlining what podcasts I follow for the war and geopolitics more generally for those interested.

Shor & Hybrid War Updates

Here’s a roundup of the top stories in Russia’s hybrid war against Moldova from the week:

• Russia is launching a new propaganda TV channel in Kyrgyzstan. This was reported by Radio Azattyk (part of the RFE/RL network). The new network is backed, in part, by Ilan Shor’s Eurasia NGO, which was launched in April 2024. Eurasia has played a major role in hybrid attacks, laundering campaign money and voter bribery efforts in Moldova. Kyrgyz media expert Asel Sooronbaeva spoke of their work to ZdG saying:

“As far as I know, the Eurasia organization conducts media trainings for journalists and students. Its ties to Russia are also obvious. It is equally clear that it takes journalists to Russia and trains them there. At these trainings, lessons, and press tours, we also see employees of media outlets that have direct or indirect ties to our government,”

• Orhei mayor Tatiana Cociu is still missing, but is not wanted. Anti-Corruption prosecutors confirmed to ZdG that there are no open cases against the mayor, who, as we wrote last week, is understood to have fled to Moscow and is unwilling to return to Moldova.

• Romanian mercenary Horațiu Potra was deported from Dubai to Romania in handcuffs along with his son and grandson. All 3 men will stand trial on charges of trying to organize a coup d’état. We previously wrote about how they were fighting extradition with the help of Moldovan Alexandr Kalinin who was stripped of his citizenship in 2023 for his role supporting the Russian war effort.

• Romania has been providing passports to Russian “oligarchs and criminals.” Romanian outlet G4Media reported on a major corruption scandal whereby 300 Russians illicitly obtained Romanian documents. Of those, at least 20 bribed border officials and took the names of Ukrainian soldiers who died in battle as their new identities. The other 280 never set foot in Romania but obtained official birth certificates through Romanian consulates. Apparently, when consulates issue these official documents they are not recorded in any central database, so it is difficult to know which are forgeries and which are real. G4Media reports that the Russians paid bribes ranging from €15,000 to €40,000 euros for their new documents and identities.

• PAS MP Lilian Carp signals a new effort to dismantle the Shor network in Gagauzia. The MP, who is the chair of parliament’s National Security Committee, stated that the resignation of Dumitru Constantinov, head of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, and his recent attempts to distance himself from Shor, are no coincidence. Carp stated that the Shor network is now fearing accountability for their illegal actions and that they are monitoring the airport for those seeking to flee. About the upcoming elections in Gagauzia (assumed to be in March 2026) he stated:

“Since they had local electoral bodies, and they acted in violation of the law, but in the interests of certain groups, it was decided that everything will be controlled from Chisinau, including the electoral processes. This is being done to prevent vote-buying and election fraud. We are talking about certain electoral competitors. For example, if there are complaints about election fraud or vote-buying, and there is evidence, then the Central Electoral Commission in Chisinau will make the necessary decisions,”

In the linked article, Newsmaker noted that while Shor’s people warned that the arrest of Bashkan Gutsul would spark mass protests, in reality, protest action by the Shor network all but dissolved when she went to prison.

A Moment of Zen

Amidst a week of fairly dark news, I thought I’d share a funny experience I had at the Moldova Security Forum. I applaud the work of the organizers who put together an extremely interesting and well organized series of events. The funny moment for me came when it was time to take a family photo with all the participants.

The venue, MAIB Park, had a second level for photographers and videographers in the main event hall. For the photo, the organizers asked everyone sitting in the back rows who would not be seen from this vantage to move forward to the stage. Being the kind of person who sits well towards the back, I found ushers moving me and others towards the front for the picture. Many people had the good sense to simply dodge out, but me and around 4 others did as we were instructed and moved to the front. This resulted in me and the other 3 standing on stage for the photo alongside all the speakers and guests (who filled in after I got there and no one else followed the instructions). The result is an improbable photo where I’m side by side with the Foreign Minister and appearing far more important than I really am. It’s all the more notable as I’m one of the only people anywhere in the hall without a sport coat.

Sometime I really enjoy the odd little “Forrest Gump” moments that life seems to throw my way.