• Timeline: Attackers extracted data from government system…

Read more

This past week Moldova marked a milestone of 100 recorded airspace incursions since the full scale invasion began in February 2022. Of those 100, 60% have occurred in 2026 as the pace and scale of drone overflights and explosions in Moldovan territory continues to increase.

Between October 10 and 16, 8 dr…

Read more

On October 13, at the 4th Moldova-EU intergovernmental conference in Luxembourg, Moldova and the EU announced the opening of negotiations on Cluster II “Internal Market” (9 chapters) and Cluster III “Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth” (8 chapters).

In a joint press conference alongside EU Commissioner for E…

Read more

Read more

Subscribe now

Record Drone Incursion and Strikes

On the morning of October 3, 5 Russian drones / cruise missiles1 entered Moldova between 7:45 and 8 am. All 5 crashed and exploded across 4 districts near populated areas.

President Sandu condemned the attack and called for more support for Ukraine writing:

“This morning, in just 15 minutes, five missiles and drones violated our airspace and exploded near populated areas. Russia’s war against Ukraine directly threatens the lives of our citizens. Russia can stop this war today, but as long as it continues to attack, Ukraine needs support to protect its people and preserve our peace,”

No one was injured in the attack, but windows were broken and shrapnel was scattered around the sites of the strikes and in some cases embedded in walls.

“3 Missiles and 2 Drones”

This is how the Ministry of Defense described the objects that violated Moldovan airspace, but there has been some confusion and contradiction about what this means. According to the Police, the debris found at the sites of the strikes is all consistent with Russian S8000 "Banderol" cruise missiles. This is a totally new munition for Moldova which has previously seen incursions primarily from turbojet powered “missile drones” like the Gheran-4.

Moldovan media classified the S8000 as a “cruise missile-drone hybrid,” which possibly explains that 3-vs-2 ambiguity. But there isn’t really a need to hedge here, both Russia and Ukraine classify the S8000 “Banderol” firmly as a cruise missile. It is air-launched by an Inokhodets drone (Kronshtadt Orion) and very much looks like a cruise missile as you can see in the graphic from NV Ukraine below:

When reviewing the data from their radar systems, the Army later identified a 6th drone that also briefly entered Moldovan airspace in the same time period before leaving back to Ukraine.

On October 5 at 9:38 am, an unknown projectile struck the Palanca–Mayaky–Udobne border checkpoint with Ukraine. Shrapnel or ricocheted material hit a nearby bus shattering windows and injured a border guard. No one else was injured and the guard suffered only light injuries and is recovering.

You can view security footage of the strike online via PulsMedia. The border crossing was closed for most of the day before reopening at 5:04 pm.

This morning, a drone entered Moldovan airspace before quickly leaving again for Ukraine. The pace of airspace incursions continues to grow, as does the number of strikes within Moldovan territory.

Coordinated Intimidation

In parallel with these drone developments, the Chisinau airport was evacuated on October 2 and October 3 in response to bomb threats. Passengers had to clear the terminal - either going outside into the parking area or onto the runway depending on which side of security they were on. After police sweeps determined that there were no threats, flights and airport activity resumed with delays.

Why this weekend? On October 3 & 4 Moldova celebrated the 25th annual National Wine Day and welcomed an unprecedented number of tourists for the festivities. Police reported that more than 100,000 people attended the celebration in Chisinau over 2 days and estimates have suggested that around 30,000 were tourists. In spite of drones and airport delays, Moldova celebrated its wine and culture with gusto.

Also - a Guinness world record was set for the largest human grapevine.

This week Moldova will host the Moldova Security Forum and various side events that will bring together diplomats and security professionals from around Europe. With Moldova Business Week last week and Wine Day over the weekend, this has been a very busy time in Moldova for out of town guests.

We can most likely expect more attempts at intimidation in the coming days and weeks as Russia continues to escalate with its threats and with drone strikes in the country.

We’ll come back next week with more updates, and with other topics including how the Gagauzia elections are framing up, new updates on LPA reform, the “Trump Liberty Line” and more.

Unfortunately, drone overflights, crashes and explosions in Moldovan airspace and territory are becoming so frequent and so dangerous that we’ll start highlighting them up front in the newsletter. Here’s this week’s report:

• September 26 (11:16 am) - Drone overflight in-and-out of South Moldova in the Transnistria region.

• September 26 - Drone fragments found on the outskirts of Volintiri, in the Stefan Vodă district. This was not linked to the morning’s overflight and the drone itself appears not to have been reported or detected in flight.

• September 30 (5:40 am) - A drone crashed and exploded in the countryside near the village of Hîrbovăț, Anenii Noi district. The explosion was caught on video by a home security camera. Police reported that the drone hit a large antenna tower 40 m in the air, exploded and scattered debris in a large radius.

• September 30 (10:26 am) - A drone was detected entering Moldovan airspace near the town of Lunga in the Dubasari district in Transnistria. It then turned north and headed towards Soroca, causing airspace closures in the Center and North of the country. Reports indicated that it was a jet powered drone moving at approximately 400 km/hr. It apparently exited the national airspace.

• September 30 (8:45 pm) - A drone crossed into Moldovan airspace in the northernmost part of Transnistria near Rezina. It then turned South and was lost from radar near Brănești, Orhei. Central airspace was closed in the incident and reopened at 9:07 pm. Local residents near Brănești called the police to report an explosion and police found the impact location close to the road connecting Ivancea to Brănești. Traffic was stopped in both directions as debris was cleared and the site was made safe. Tourists to Moldova will know this stretch of road well, as it connects the main North-South highway to Brănești (famous for its wine cellars) and on to Orhei Vechi. Police reported that the drone was a turbojet powered “Geran-type” drone.1

What Are the Authorities Doing About it?

Asked about the government’s response to the massive uptick in drone incursions and explosions, Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatii stated that:

“We are in the process of implementing projects that will allow us to equip the National Army with systems capable of shooting down these drones or missiles,”

What this means in terms of strategy or capabilities remains unclear. Previous statements from the Ministry of Defense have indicated that Moldova does have limited tools to shoot down drones but that these are deployed to protect critical infrastructure. They also noted that Russian drone flights may partly be intended to test these capabilities and map them out.

Enter Igor Dodon. In the midst of the multiple incursions and explosions in populated areas on September 30, the former President and leader of the pro-Russian Socialist party posted these 3 photos on his facebook account:

In his post, he revealed the location of the air defense assets and publicly demanded that the government be maximally transparent about where such units are positioned because “people are worried.”

Naturally he is silent on condemning Russia for the drones themselves or the explosions in people’s neighborhoods… apparently, that isn’t worrying to Mr. Dodon.

MD-Alert

The Moldovan government is working to implement an emergency broadcast system called MD-Alert - currently scheduled to be active sometime in 2027. This system would be similar to Romania’s RO-Alert system which uses the cell phone networks to broadcast warnings that quite literally cause your cell phone to blare an alert when drones are in the air nearby2. Radio Europa reports that the National Crisis Management Center is now working with the E-Governance Agency to create a temporary warning module via the EVO app. This should be ready by later this fall.

Other Security & Transnistria Updates

Here’s a roundup of the other top stories related to security and Transnistria:

• Moldova proposes convergence infrastructure. The Ministry of Reintegration announced that it has proposed 2 infrastructure investments for the Transnistria region. These would be a new center for family doctors and social assistance in Bender and a sewage treatment plant in the same city. Minister for Reintegration Valeriu Chiveri stated that these would be early investments from the newly created convergence fund and that they have been presented to the Transnistrian “authorities,” who have not yet responded to them.

• Transnistria’s economic crisis continues to deepen. A new study by think tank IDIS Viitorul estimates that 25,000 Transnistrians now work in constitutionally controlled Moldova, primarily in the HoReCa sector. It estimates that their combined annual salaries are approximately $240 million, exceeding the region’s total annual exports of $224 million. The study estimates a 20% contraction in the region’s GDP in 2025 and that the current GDP per capital of the region is less than half that of the rest of Moldova. It highlights a “structural crisis” in the region’s economy and budget and states that:

“The real public policy choice [for Moldova] is not between maintaining the current situation and immediate reintegration, but between a planned adjustment and one imposed by the crisis,”

• New American sanctions against Shor’s A7 network. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned the A7 companies as well as subsidiaries as part of “Operation Economic Outcast” targeting “Iran and other adversaries.” To date there has been little to no public indication that Shor’s network is laundering Iranian money, and while much of the announcement focuses on Iran it is clear that the “other adversaries” noted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is primarily referencing Russia. This is a major action that should stand as a warning to entities in China and other countries that facilitate A7’s work.

International Affairs

Here’s a roundup of the top international affairs stories of the week:

• Moldova has a new American Ambassador. President Sandu accepted the credentials from Ambassador Joseph Mark Burkhalter this week alongside 4 other new Ambassadors. These included Turkey, Canada and Saudi Arabia who both have new Ambassadors at Large based in Bucharest, and Algeria, whose Ambassador at Large is based in Kyiv. This marks the first time that Moldova has had an official American Ambassador since Ambassador Logsdon left in June 2024.

• The Romanian political crisis deepens as parliament rejects Siegfried Mureșan’s government. President Nicușor Dan continues to reject calls for an early election and stated that he will announce a new candidate for Prime Minister on October 5 following consultation with the parties. He warned all parties against forming a coalition with the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). The news comes in the same week as an explosive Wall Street Journal story reported that American Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle threatened Greek politicians saying that the US government was involved in the collapse of Romania’s previous government under Ilie Bolojan and that the same thing could happen in Greece.

• Prime Minister Tofan addressed the UN General Assembly. In his speech (which is worth watching in full) he spoke of Moldova’s journey as a small country emerging from the domination of its neighbors to determine its own future. His speech highlighted agency in difficult times saying “Small countries choose neither their geographical location nor their size. But being small does not mean being powerless.” The Prime Minister went on to speak of Moldova’s decision to join the European Union as the country’s national project, saying that:

“For us, joining the European Union does not mean replacing one sphere of influence with another. It means exactly the opposite. It means that our citizens exercise their right to choose. To choose democracy. To choose prosperity. To choose peace.”

He concluded with an address to Moldovan citizens in Romanian saying that while “a hard winter awaits us” people must “stick together” and help those in the most need. He concluded:

“Moldova may never be a great power. But we have everything it takes to be a great country“

Energy & Water Crisis Updates

Here is a roundup of the top stories in Moldova’s dual crises this autumn:

• Outflow from the Novodnistrovsk Reservoir has been reduced to match inflows. Ukraine has announced that the reservoir no longer has reserves and that they are substantially reducing outflows. Already some Ukrainian towns along the river are rationing water according to scheduled on/off basis. Currently the much smaller Dubasari Reservoir has sufficient storage to ensure adequate flows for the Chisinau pump station, but there are questions about whether the pumping station will be able to continue accessing water at the river’s level for much longer. The government has provided the pumping station with more supplementary pumps that reach into deeper sections of the river as a stopgap measure. Moldovan members of the Dniester Commission have criticized Ukraine for taking action unilaterally and abruptly, leading to a rapid drying up of some parts of the river that killed large numbers of fish. The Moldovan government has sought to deflect blame from Ukraine by noting that you cannot negotiate with an empty bucket, but the opposition is seeking to blame water shortages on Ukraine and on Moldova’s government for not being “firm” enough with the Ukrainians. Near Soroca, the river’s level is already catastophically low as you can see in this video from Observatorul de Nord:

• Gas and heating prices spike ahead of winter. The National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE) approved new prices for centralized thermal heating, raising prices 62% for customers in Chisinau and a 53% in Balti. At the same time, the ANRE set a new natural gas tariff of 26.14 lei / cubic meter starting on October 1. This is a 29% increase on the current price of 20.3 lei / cube, which was itself a jump of 41% on September 1 of the prior price of 14.42 lei / cube. That is a cumulative 81% increase in prices over 2 months. The agency cited skyrocketing natural gas prices for both changes.

• Opposition parties staged a protest outside of ANRE headquarters. Representatives of the MAN party, Socialist and Communist parties, Our Party, PSDE and PPDA parties gathered a crowd with slogans about high prices and “down with PAS” posters. Organizers claimed 500 participants in the protests. PAS representatives responded to ZdG requests for comment by noting that they cannot control global energy prices but that the government is preparing targeted compensation for the hardest hit consumers.

• Moldova to seek long term gas supply contracts. In a major pivot, Prime Minster Tofan announced that the government would seek out long term supply contracts to blunt market instability. He noted that government projections anticipated a market price of $360 per 1000 cubic meters and the actual prices are higher than $1000. He stated that “Wherever the gas is, that’s where we’ll go to find it for Moldova. We’ll go to Qatar, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan, no matter how difficult it may be” clarifying that “We won’t go to the Russians or Putin, though. All other options need to be considered.” This comes in the context of a reported meeting between Tofan and (former3) Russian oligarch and gas billionaire Igor Makarov to discuss long term contracts. Makarov is a Moldovan citizen, but is sanctioned by Canada. This meeting reportedly followed an introduction by former American official Kurt Volker.

Political Updates - Major Change in LPA Reform

Prime Minister Tofan announced a major shift in direction for the Local Public Administration (LPA) reform, stating that Moldova’s current 32 districts will be replaced by 3 regions - north, center and south. Chisinau, Balti and Gagauzia will retain their status and Taraclia will be reorganized into a level 2 municipality as planned. Under the new plan, public services will remain at the town and village level while the consolidated regions will focus on larger strategic infrastructure projects. The goal of the new plan is to reduce bureaucracy and cut overlapping functions while building smaller more specialized regional teams. The Congress of Local Authorities of Moldova (CALM) called the announcement a “pleasant surprise” but noted that complicated questions of detail will follow.

Prior to becoming Prime Minister, Vasile Tofan wrote an op-ed for Moldova Matters criticizing the planned LPA reform and calling for bolder steps to reduce the number of regions. You can read that article here:

46 MPs Sign a Petition to Impeach Maia Sandu

All opposition MPs signed this bill seeking to suspend President Sandu. The announcement was led by PDCM leader Ion Chicu who was flanked by members of the Socialists, Communists, Our Party, MAN and PPDA. Interestingly, no other party sent their leaders or even senior leadership to the announcement. Speaker Grosu commented on this fact saying:

“They united to overthrow President Maia Sandu. It’s strange that the leaders of these parties didn’t come out either. They must be ashamed of their own initiative. Maybe it’s an order from above and they don’t want to be associated with this order either.“

He went on to note that the doomed initiative was being made in lieu of similar unity in condemning Russian drone attacks or productive proposals around the energy or water crisis.

Russian violations of Moldovan airspace have massively intensified in both quantity and potential danger to the population. Overflights - where a drone briefly enters and then exits Moldova on its way to a target in Ukraine are becoming a daily occurrence. At the same time, drones that crash and explode in Moldova, or linger for long periods in the country’s airspace, are becoming much more frequent. Here is a roundup of the main violations in the past week:

• September 18 - Explosion in Colonița outside Chisinau. Multiple residents called the police after hearing the explosion at 4:20 am1. While various home security cameras captured the sound and flash (video compilation from the police here), military radars did not track or identify this drone. At 1:00 pm police search teams found debris from the turbojet-powered missile-drone scattered across a 100 m radius.

• September 19 - “Several” drones violated Moldovan airspace from multiple directions. One may have crashed and exploded approximately 1.5 km across the border in Ukraine.

• September 20 - Residents from 2 villages in different parts of the country called police to report drone overflights. Military radars did not record any overflights and they are unconfirmed.

• September 21 - Radars detected drone incursions at 00:17, causing closure of the country’s northern airspace for 24 minutes. The drones returned to Ukraine. In the afternoon another drone overflew Moldovan airspace in the south near Planaca.

• September 24 - Four drones entered Moldova in 2 hours with 2 crashing and exploding. One went down in the village of Cernița, Florești district. It hit a tree and then exploded in a cornfield. The other is believed to have crashed and exploded in Transnistria, but is unconfirmed by their “authorities.”

What’s Happening and What is Being Done About it?

State Secretary of the Ministry of Defence Ghenadie Cojocaru gave an interview to answer the public’s questions and concerns about the drones. Asked how the military did not track the drone that crashed in Colonița, very near to Chisinau, he explained that various conditions, including altitude make tracking drones difficult. He noted that the current radar situation is much better than at the start of the war2, but that there are still major gaps. Right now the system is capable of giving decision makers the general situation and allowing for enough warning to protect civilian aircraft (closing airspace, etc).

Asked whether Moldova has the capability to shoot these drones down, he said “partly,” explaining that the army has Man Portable Air Defense (MANPADS), machine guns and Electronic Warfare Systems (EWS). At the same time, numbers are limited and they are organized to protect critical infrastructure systems. Asked what is going on, Cojocaru explained that in the cases where there are long-distance incursions the government suspects that the Russians are probing Moldova’s capabilities.

The STRATCOM center put out a statement explaining that these incursions coincide with waves of disinformation being spread through Kremlin propaganda channels. They seek to foster fear and include messages linking the abandonment of European integration with safety from Russian attack.

Between February 24, 2022 and September 22, 2026, there have been 77 recorded violations of Moldovan airspace. 40 of those occurred in 2026 with 16 cases of crashes resulting in explosions or fires in August and September alone.

Ilan Shor is now Everyone’s “Monster”

This week the FT released an article titled “Kremlin-backed forgery scheme moved $6.9bn through global banks.” It was shortly followed by a NYTimes piece titled “The ‘Monster’ Behind Russia’s Global Effort to Evade Western Sanctions.” This monstrous forgery scheme refers to Ilan Shor’s A7 companies and their growing centrality to Moscow’s sanctions evasion and war financing architecture.

Both investigations are worth reading in full as they shine a light on the growing A7 empire and how it relies much more heavily on shell companies and document forgeries than on crypto. Financial Analyst Zachary Tvarozna, whose articles Moldova Matters has cross-posted on multiple occasions, is cited in the FT piece. He recently dove deeper into his thesis (seemingly proven) that the A7 story is far more about money laundering through traditional banking systems than it is about crypto. Here’s a link:

Evidence of Absence

I May Have Been Early, But I’m Not Wrong

Read more

a month ago · 2 likes · Zachary Tvarozna

I really suggest subscribing to his Substack.

Here are a few of the top line findings from the FT and NYTimes articles:

• FT: A7 operates via a vast network of shell companies and correspondent bank relationships. They use OpenAI products for mass forgeries of invoices and stamps in order to mask the actual goods being paid for.

• FT: Reports that A7 claims to now manage 1/5th of all Russian foreign transactions, including masked military purchases as well as civilian business.

• FT: Tracked $6.9 billion in money laundering, promissory notes (veksels) worth $20 billion in face value and unspecified “billions” in USDT crypto.

• NYTimes: Tracked more than 4000 transactions in the first half of 2025 totaling more than $500 million with over $130 million in military / industrial purchases.

• NYTimes: Gazprom is routing some energy payments through A7 companies

• NYTimes: Kyrgyzstan was the major hub for sanctions evasion via A7 with Kyrgyz bank profits soaring from $42 million in 2021 to $354 million in 2024. Chinese and European shipments to Kyrgyzstan grew from $8 billion to $23 billion in the same timeframe. Following crackdowns on sanctions evasion in Kyrgyzstan, A7 shifted operations to Bahrain, UAE, Nigeria, Mongolia and others.

• NYTimes: Reported that “hundreds of millions of dollars” from these schemes were funneled through a “nonprofit” (likely Evrazia) to interfere in Moldvoan elections.

The NYTimes notes that A7 has adopted the nevalyashka toy as a mascot. This is a type of traditional Russian doll with a weight at its base that allows it to self-right when knocked over. It symbolizes A7’s resilience to sanctions.

Energy Crisis (Again)

In what is becoming a grim annual tradition, Moldova has slipped into energy crisis and parliament declared a State of Emergency on September 22 lasting 60 days. Prime Minister Tofan stated that the government is reversing course on plans to bring austerity to the energy compensation programs and is now planning to expand on last year’s subsidies to meet the new challenge.

Addressing parliament to ask for a State of Emergency, the Prime Minister stated:

“The problem is that we are entering the cold season with several major risks overlapping at the same time. We have, basically, a perfect storm”

In his speech (which is well worth reading in full simply as a piece of oratory), he identified 4 interconnected risks that the country is facing:

1. Natural Gas - Moldova has contracted 90% of the winter supply but these contracts rely on European TTF market prices which are now skyrocketing due to the “crisis in Hormuz,” damage to Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and attacks on the Ras Laffan LGN facilities in Qatar. Moldova has gas, but the market prices are already 50% higher than consumers’ bills and they are climbing.

2. Diesel - Refineries and production in the Middle East and Russia are damaged or offline. The government has been managing this crisis since August but needs more tools to assure supply.

3. Water - The drought affecting the Dniester and Danube has spilled over from an agricultural problem to a problem of drinking water and energy production. The hydroelectric plant at Costeşti on the Prut is showing 55% reduced output right now. These threats have reduced production in Moldova’s adjacent hydroelectric stations and threatened shutdowns at Romanian and Hungarian nuclear reactors.

4. Ukraine’s Coming Winter - Right now Moldova is still importing electricity from Ukraine. Tofan stated: “According to our assessment, if Ukraine, before the war, had about 70 GW of installed electrical capacity, today the capacity has reached 11-12 GW.” Ukraine supplied 100 MW in August to keep Moldova’s lights on at peak hours. During the winter, Moldova will need 400-450 MW at peak, and Romania can only supply 360 MW. If Russian attacks this winter further degrade Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Moldova will face critical shortfalls.

Prime Minister Tofan concluded stating:

“Here’s the problem. These multiple risks don’t exist separately:
Gas influences district heating and electricity production.
Water influences hydropower.
Electricity keeps the water pumps running.
The situation in Ukraine influences how much electricity we can import.
And diesel influences transportation, agriculture, logistics, and ultimately prices throughout the economy.”

He called on parliament to vote the government emergency powers to manage this “perfect storm” and parliament voted to create the State of Emergency with 54 in support, 20 against and 22 abstentions.

In parallel, Prime Minister Tofan has accelerated the reorganization of state agencies in order to reduce budget expenditures and allocate more resources to household energy subsidies. Each ministry is reviewing its subsidiary agencies with 161 state agencies, with 52,000 total employees, under review. They have set a target of reducing staff by 10-30% by merging institutions and cutting redundancies.

International Affairs

Here’s a roundup of the top international affairs stories of the week:

• This week multiple news outlets, including the Washington Post, France24 and Forbidden Stories, reported on the architecture of the American 3rd country deportation network. They investigated cases where individuals were deported to countries to which they had no connection. They found that Moldova accepted 31 deportees, all of whom were “citizens of the former Soviet region” without criminal records who already had visa-free access to Moldova. In the reporting, only 2 countries responded to requests for comment and one was Moldova. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that of those, 27 have already left Moldova while 4 remain - 2 citizens of Georgia and 2 of Russia. One of these has applied for asylum. Moldova has no official agreement with the United States and was not paid in either money or other resources in this effort. Moldova Matters analyzed rumors of an agreement with the United States back in July 2025 when these transfers apparently began:

• Moldova at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). British PM Andy Burnham spoke of the UK’s support for “Moldova in protecting its elections from Russian interference” when he announced plans to create a new “National Information Defence Centre” (similar to Moldova’s STRATCOM). He noted that Russian information attacks are an accelerating problem and cited a $1.7 billion annual budget allocated by the Kremlin to these efforts. Romanian President Nicușor Dan called Moldova the “second country most affected by this war” and promised additional support on Moldova’s path to the EU. Prime Minister Tofan will address UNGA September 26 from 5-6 pm. He has been holding meetings on the sidelines encouraging investment into Moldova and speaking with journalists including a video interview with CNN.

Security / Transnistria

Here’s a roundup of the top security / Transnistria stories of the week:

• Russia opened 16 polling stations in Transnistria during its Duma “elections.” This compared to 3 total polling stations in the United States, 2 in Germany, 7 in Belarus and 7 in Kazakhstan. ZdG reporters who observed the polling places in Tiraspol undercover from a distance reported a large police and military presence along with “several men in civilian clothes, with an athletic build and dark glasses, near the stations.” Each polling station had metal detectors at the entrances and loudspeakers playing Russian patriotic songs. Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the opening of these 16 unsanctioned polling places.

Politics & Elections

Here’s a roundup of the top politics stories of the week:

• The Barometer of Public Opinion (BOP) previewed its latest annual poll with sliding approval for Moldova’s direction of travel. 38.2% of respondents stated that the country was on the right track while 56.6% said it was on the wrong track. These numbers were driven in part by growing economic and cost of living anxieties. A majority of Moldovans always consider the country to be on the wrong track, but these numbers show a slide from around 43% right track / 47% wrong track a year ago.

• Parliament has passed the new anti-SLAPP law in the final reading. The law aligns Moldova with EU standards and provides protection for journalists, media organizations, civic activists and others from Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation (SLAPP). Under this law, if a court rules a suit was filed abusively the plaintiff could risk significant fines and other penalties. A late amendment by PAS MP Artemie Cătănoi slightly watered down the law by retaining criminal liability for slander (set to be repealed) and delaying the implementation of the law to 12 months from its publication in the official Gazette (it had been planned for January 1, 2027).

Last week, we wrote about how an overflight by a Russian missile-drone caused the diversion of 7 planes in Moldova. Of those, 3 were held on the ground at Chisinau’s Eugen Doga International Airport, 3 were diverted to holding patterns in the air and one diverted to Iași for an unscheduled landing.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plane was among those which were delayed in this incident. At the time, he was flying from Chisinau to Oslo to attend the funeral of Norway’s King Harald V. Zelenskyy has been using Chisinau for flight transit since early June when a diplomatic spat between Ukraine and Poland caused substantial tensions between the countries1.

On September 9, Euronews reported that Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store stated that:

"His [Zelenskyy’s] flight was almost hit by a drone when it was taking off from Moldova. That is the reality he lives in,"

Some outlets like Euronews reported this statement as fact, while others such as CNN more cooly noted that a “Russian drone incursion delayed Zelensky’s departure from Moldova.” Official statements from the Moldovan Presidency and Government confirmed this characterization, explaining that the drone overflight and eventual crash more than 160 km from Chisinau caused flight delays which impacted President Zelenskyy’s itinerary .

Not (Necessarily) Targeted, but Not a Coincidence

Immediately after the event, Moldova’s Ambassador to the United States characterized the incident as “not an accident,” telling CNN:

“We do not believe in jet propelled drones just flying into Moldova’s territory for surveillance purposes while [the] Ukrainian president’s airplane is on the ground at the airport,”

In an interview with CBS News, released on September 15, Zelenskyy himself seemed to confirm this characterization, saying:

"In Moldova, my presidential jet was there, and that's why they attacked Moldova,"

In the interview, President Zelenskyy clarified that by “attacked” he was referring to an airspace incursion, and that he was not sure he himself was targeted. In a back and forth with the interviewer he implied that the aim was intimidation2. Zelenskyy also stated that when he returned to Moldova a few days later another drone entered Moldovan airspace at the same time - an incursion that CBS stated had not previously been reported3.

A Pattern of Escalation

As we’ve written before, this comes in the context of a huge spike in drone incursions and explosive crashes in Moldova - a situation that is not unique to Moldova. Russia recently targeted a train near the Poland-Ukraine border at the same time as various dignitaries, including former CIA director David Petraeus and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, passed through. NATO air patrols have been shooting down drones entering alliance airspace with increasing regularity.

In Moldova, it is clear that some of these attacks are targeted at ports of entry. Russia has sought to justify recent strikes on the Tudora-Starokazache crossing saying that they were targeting weapons transfers to Ukraine. Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called these accusations “false,” saying that “No weapons are transported to Ukraine through the territory of the Republic of Moldova” and noting that only “People pass through these points - families, children, mothers and the elderly, who travel between the two countries.” Recall that this attack killed 2 Ukrainian civilians and wounded one Moldovan.

Drone incursions and attacks on border infrastructure are becoming more brazen, whether or not there were attempts to target President Zelenskyy directly.

Other Security News

Here’s a roundup of the other top security and Transnistria stories of the week:

• Russian Ambassador Designate4 Oleg Ozerov disputed the recent report on Cobasna. He suggested that the report was of “highly questionable quality” and that even (unnamed) “Western experts” disputed its findings. Ozerov suggested that the efforts made by SIS and Moldovan Army Intelligence to disprove decades old narratives about the stockpile are designed “to pave the way for a military solution to the Transnistria problem.” In case you missed my 2 part investigation on this topic you can find it here:

• Anthropic’s September 2026 “Detecting and countering misuse of AI” report mentioned Moldova 16 times. The report detailed how Claude was used by various Russian propagandists to facilitate multi-language disinformation and create “false verification loops” whereby disinformation appeared in multiple places and languages. This allowed various spreaders of this disinformation to cite multiple sources for the same lies. These reports were only a small subset of the global Russian disinformation and cyberwarfare campaign outlined across the report.

• “Protestors” have gathered at the “border” checkpoints in Tighina (Bender) to protest against taxes levied on Transnistrian businesses. According to Transnistrian state TV, they included 300 “representatives of Transnistrian public organizations and labor collectives.” The same group with the same signs first appeared on September 10 to protest outside of the Joint Control Commission during the visit of the new OSCE Ambassador Christopher W. Smith. They then moved to the “border” points on September 15 and 16. Promo-LEX lawyer Vadim Vieru told Newsmaker that these protests are not real and are organized by the local “authorities,” noting that if anyone protests anything in Tiraspol they are arrested for extremism.

Politics

Here’s a roundup of the top politics stories of the week:

• Prime Minister Tofan announces major “managerial rotation.” The director of the National Health Insurance Company (CNAM) was moved to the role of director of Public Property Agency (APP), the director of the Republican Clinical Hospital “Timofei Moșneaga” became the director of CNAM, the director of the National Social Insurance Company (CNAS) will become the director of the State Tax Service (SFS), the outgoing director of the SFS will remain as deputy. Interestingly, the former ANSA director (and Minister of Agriculture for 3 days) Radu Musteață will take over the Agricultural Intervention and Payments Agency (AIPA). Tofan stated that “manager rotation is a practice used in developed countries” when describing the highly unusual moves5.

• Tofan announces “Moldova Project” National Infrastructure Development Office. This new entity will be tasked with overseeing implementation of major strategic projects. It will be headed by Mircea Eşanu, who is leaving the Public Services Agency (ASP) after a 5 year tenure where he led successful modernization and digitization efforts there. He will lead a team of 26 in the new office within the State Chancellery. The Prime Minister explained that responsibility for large projects is spread across too many structures with too few specialists - leading to slow implementation. He stated:

“Moldova needs major projects, and they need to be implemented quickly, not years later. For over a decade, we’ve been talking about modern regional hospitals in Bălți and Cahul, irrigation projects in the south, an airport in the north, and transport infrastructure. The modern prison project in Chisinau began back in 2013, and it still hasn’t been completed. And these are not the only examples,” (…)

“We want to build a small but very strong team: engineers, project managers, procurement and tender specialists, contract management, finance and legal experts. We’re looking to the experience of countries like Lithuania, Ireland and Montenegro,”

• Parliament appointed 2 new committee chairs. MP Marcel Spatari became the Chairman of the Committee on Economy, Budget and Finance while Adrian Băluțel took over his role as Chair of the Commission for European Integration.

• Reports of “intense and coordinated activity” across social media targeting the Gagauzia elections. Analysis from Stopfals.md outlined a ramping up of pro-Kremlin propaganda painting a picture of “Gagauzia on the brink of conflict.” Narratives focus on how Chisinau is trying to “take control” of the autonomy as well as stoking traditional fears of union with Romania6. With the election campaign only getting started, we should expect serious hybrid attacks and interference over the next months.

• Prime Minister Tofan unveiled a major deregulation and debureaucratization package aimed at cutting red tape for businesses. The plan touches roughly 100 pieces of legislation and targets duplicate permits, repetitive inspections and outdated procedural requirements. At the same time, the government insists that health, safety, environmental and consumer protections will remain robust. On the enforcement side, the government wants to move toward risk-based, more predictable inspections after entrepreneurs flagged unannounced tax audits and disproportionate penalties as top complaints in a public consultation that drew over 200 submissions. The package is now in final review at the Justice Ministry and the National Anti-Corruption Center before heading to parliament.

Economics & Infrastructure

Here is a roundup of the top economic and infrastructure news of the week:

• Fuel prices continue to rise as crisis in the Middle East deepens. Gasoline hit a price of 33.67 lei / L (42% higher than February) while diesel hit an all time high of 35.53 lei / L (74% higher than February). The National Energy Regulation Agency (ANRE) cited Houthi advances and strikes on Saudi infrastructure as the drivers of price increases, calling it “an atypical situation, generated entirely by external factors.” Alternative Bloc MP Ion Chicu agreed, saying that the country needs to prepare for 40 lei fuel since the “situation in the Middle East won’t end anytime soon.” He stated:

“There’s a shortage of diesel fuel on international markets. I hope the government has a plan to ensure the country has diesel fuel. As for the price, that’s beyond our control,7”

• The government approved a bill on restructuring Moldovan Railways (CFM). The proposed bill would break the company into Moldovan Railway “Passengers and Freight” and CFM Infra. The first company would do exactly as the name implies, while CFM Infra will manage the rails and infrastructure. Neither company is being privatized. The restructuring is being done according to EU norms with the goal is inviting competition into the system, where new entrants would pay for the right to use infrastructure without being blocked by a national monopoly. The restructuring will be completed by the end of the year.

• The National Bank has raised the base rate by 1.5% to 9%. They cited inflationary pressures and “geopolitical uncertainties,” and estimate a 6.96% inflation rate for August 2026. Executive Director of the think-tank Expert-Grup, Adrian Lupușor, projected a “period of stagflation” that may stabilize in the second half of 2027.

• Prime Minister Tofan has stated that airport expansion “must begin in October at the latest.” In an announcement on facebook, the Prime Minister stated that “The good news is that we have over 6 million passengers, the number has doubled in two years. The bad news is that, effectively, we can no longer cope.” He stated that temporary measures including extra seating and mobile food and coffee points will be arranged in the short term. At the same time, he stressed the need to move forward with the planned terminal expansion as son as possible. The massive number of Hasidic pilgrims heading to Uman makes September a particularly challenging month for the airport’s infrastructure, but passenger traffic has grown steadily over the last few years driven largely by Ukrainian transit.

• The Novodnistrovsk reservoir is still in trouble. The water inflow at the Ukrainian reservoir averaged 22.7 cubic meters per second in the first half of September, but with steady and daily declines. Meanwhile, the outflow has been maintained at 60 cubic meters per second. On September 14 the Dnister Commission met and Ukrainian representatives recommended reducing outflows to match inflows. Moldova did not agree and the meeting broke up inconclusively with a plan to reconvene in the coming days. Minister of the Environment Gheorghe Hajder stated that neither Moldova nor Ukraine is at fault here noting that “This is the effect of climate change.” He also noted that “We cannot negotiate something that is not there.” Major reductions in outflow risk the water supply to Chisinau and many other towns, as well as agricultural irrigation across the eastern half of the country.

International Affairs

Here’s a roundup of Moldova’s top international affairs stories of the week:

• Romanian President Nicusor Dan nominates MEP Siegfried Mureșan for Prime Minister. Mureșan is supported by the Save Romania Union (USR), the National Liberal Party (PNL) and Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR). That is not a parliamentary majority so he will need to try and build bridges with other parties to break Romania’s political stalemate. Siegfried Mureșan is an MEP and Vice Chairman of the EPP as well as the EPP group in the EU Parliament. He is one of the strongest voices in Europe supporting Moldova’s EU accession and for sustained support for Moldova.

• The US Embassy held an event to commemorate the victims of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 25th anniversary. President Maia Sandu, Prime Minister Tofan and Speaker Grosu attended the event. Speaking at the event, President Sandu stated:

“We reaffirm a simple belief that unites our nations: terror and totalitarianism can take lives, but they cannot defeat the freely expressed will of the people. (…) Terrorism, extremism and authoritarianism take different forms. But they all share the belief that fear and force can defeat human freedom. September 11 showed us something else. It showed us extraordinary courage in the face of terror. It showed us the power of solidarity. And it reminded us that free societies are strongest when they are united,”

Subscribe now

Moldovan Border Hit with Drone Attack

Last night Russian drones attacked and struck the Tudora-Starokazache border crossing point with Ukraine. An alert at 11:35 pm triggered the evacuation of the border crossing and Moldovan border police reported hearing explosions around 5 minutes later.

Of 3 drones apparently targeting the checkpoint, one struck it while 2 more crashed nearby. The Ukrainian authorities report 2 Ukrainian civilians were killed and 2 more people injured, one of whom was a Moldovan bus driver. He was returning with an empty bus after transporting Hasidic pilgrims to the Ukrainian city of Uman ahead of Rosh Hashanah. His injuries were light and he returned home that evening.

Prime Minister Tofan noted at a government meeting that the 2 civilians killed at the border needed to be identified via forensic analysis because the bodies were unidentifiable. Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the incidents while also conveying “sincere condolences to the families of the deceased and a speedy recovery to the injured.”

This is now the 3rd recent incident where a drone strike was apparently directly targeting Moldovan - Ukrainian border crossing infrastructure.

7 Planes Diverted in Drone Incident

On the same day, September 8, the Moldovan Army detected a drone entering the country’s airspace at 4:20 pm. The turbojet-powered “missile drone” initially headed towards Chisinau before skirting the city to the north and then crossing into Romania after flying over a town near Ungheni. The drone then returned to Moldova from the direction of Iași and headed north before crashing and exploding in a field near the town of Mihăilenii Vechi, Rîșcani.

Observers compared it to a Shahed-type drone and police confirmed it used a turbojet engine, likely making this a newer Geran-4 or similar. During the incident, Moldovan airspace was temporarily restricted and 7 planes were diverted. 3 were held on the ground at Chisinau’s Eugen Doga International Airport, 3 were diverted to holding patterns in the air, and one diverted to Iași for an unscheduled landing, apparently by the decision of the captain.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed this incident in the context of Russia testing Moldova’s air defense capability and NATO’s eastern defense posture. They mapped out the drone flight with the timeline clearly showing how much more quickly the situation unfolds with jet-powered drones.

These incidents are part of a clearly escalating series of airspace incursions that show signs of being deliberate. Since the last weekly roundup, which itself led with a section called “Lots of Drones This Week,” there was a drone incursion and separate crash in Romania near the border on August 24, 5 drone incursions to mark Moldovan independence day on August 27 and a drone incursion on August 30.

Taken together, there were 17 airspace incursions in August alone, more than in the entirety of 2025.

Other Security News

Here’s a roundup of the other top security stories of the past weeks:

• Moldova’s Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration has begun what he promises will be regular direct addresses to Transnistrian residents. In a video message, Deputy PM Valeriu Chiveri spoke in Russian to the region’s residents calling reintegration “a process that can no longer be stopped.” He stated that the government feels it is essential to regularly inform them about steps being taken and to dispel false narratives being spread by their “leaders.”

• Russia will illegally open 16 polling stations in Transnistria for the upcoming Duma elections. They will also open 1 polling station in Chisinau at the Russian embassy. No polling stations in Transnistria were authorized by the Moldovan government, leading to a formal diplomatic protest.

• The Moldovan authorities arrested a 49 year old Azerbaijani man under charges of spying for Russia. They allege that the man was gathering photos and information about military targets in Moldova, as well as American facilities in the country, and forwarding them to his handlers in the FSB. They also allege that he was preparing for acts of sabotage against installations in Moldova and Ukraine.

• Russia’s FSB announced the arrest of a Moldovan citizen who attempted to assassinate a Russian general. They showed video of 21 year old Nicolae Cociu, allegedly confessing to being recruited by the Ukrainian security services to conduct the assassination in exchange for $70,000. Separate reports indicate that the target was Major General Nikolai Varpakhovich who was shot 6 times in a village outside of Engels but survived. He was responsible for organizing and ordering the air attack on a children’s hospital in Kyiv in July 2024 that killed 2 and injured 32. Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that they have heard no official communication from Russia on the incident.

International Affairs & EU Integration

Here’s a roundup of the top international affairs and European Integration stories of the week:

• European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos stated that Moldova and Ukraine have met the conditions to open all negotiating clusters. She noted that once again progress is being blocked by Hungary, but expressed hope that the remaining clusters could be opened by the end of the year.

• American diplomat Christopher Smith is the new head of the OSCE mission to Moldova. He is a career diplomat who previously served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, and before that as the Deputy Chief of Mission at US Embassy Kyiv from 2022-2023. On arrival, Ambassador Smith met with President Sandu and Prime Minister Tofan to discuss the security situation and Transnistria.

• Moldova abstained in the recent UN vote on right-sizing the world’s maps1. The proposal would replace the Mercator projection with the Equal Earth projection, which more accurately shows the size of land masses in relation to each other. The vote was supported by 164 countries and opposed only by the United States2. Moldova was one of 6 countries that abstained, joining Lithuania, Estonia and Ukraine in protest against the reference map showing Crimea as a separate entity. Georgia also abstained without giving a reason and Serbia abstained in protest of the map showing Kosovo.

Tax Reform Moves to Parliament

On September 8 the government voted to approve a proposed tax reform bill and will send it to parliament for consideration. This bill incorporates amendments to the original bill that was presented on August 6. The new proposal marks a substantially more conservative bill than the one that made waves over the summer3, but will still substantially reshape the country’s system of taxation. It estimates 5.1 billion lei4 in new revenue, with 820 million coming from income tax, 1.6 billion from VAT and 2.7 billion from excise duties. Most provisions will come into effect on January 1, 2027 with the exception of VAT duties on parcels which will come into effect on October 1.

While the summer’s reform attempted to move most VAT categories to a standard 20%, this bill takes a far more moderate approach. Restaurants and HORECA will go from 8% to 12% and most socially necessary food products will remain at 8%. Energy will not change until April of 2027 and the current tax rates will remain for the first 100 kW of electricity and 150 cubic meters of natural gas used by a household. After that, rates will go up to 20%. Plans around dividends and reinvested profits will remain, with new provisions designed to encourage investment in the business sector.

The government backtracked on a plan to increase the VAT on feminine hygiene products from 8% to 20%, with Prime Minister Tofan saying:

“It was a wrong decision. We are correcting it, as Minister Belous announced. Hygiene products will remain at the reduced VAT rate. Thank you to everyone who drew attention to this issue. Governance also means promptly recognizing when a decision is not good and fixing things.”

The majority of the increases though are from “sin taxes,” with new excise taxes on non-alcoholic sugary drinks, energy drinks and fireworks. Excise taxes on tobacco will increase by 20% in 2027 and then 15% in both 2028 and 2029.

We’ll continue to watch this bill as it moves to parliament and is debated there.

Other Political Updates

Here’s a roundup of the other top political stories of the last 2 weeks:

• Gagauzia votes on November 15. Moldova’s Central Election Commission (CEC) has determined that elections for both the People’s Assembly and Bashkan will be held on that date. Once the People’s Assembly declared the Bashkan’s seat as vacant on August 17 that triggered a legal ticking clock that required elections to be set. The People’s Assembly then failed multiple times to set a date, which triggered legislation forcing the CEC to intervene and set the date. Thus, after almost a year of impasse the autonomy has an election scheduled.

• Alexandr Stoianoglo announced that he will run for Bashkan as an independent. The former Socialist-backed presidential candidate stated that he will suspend his activity as an MP during the campaign and plans to present a full program of governance at a later date. Stoianoglo got 97.4% of the votes in the autonomy during the second round of the 2024 presidential elections. This election will be the first where the Bashkan is required to speak Romanian, which is not an issue for Stoianoglo but may limit the field otherwise.

• Moldova marked Romanian language day on August 31. This year marked 37 years since the Supreme Soviet of the MSSR established Romanian as the state language and returned the Latin script. It was marked by the Great National Dictation as well as speeches on the importance of language and history. President Sandu stated:

“Our parents and grandparents continued to speak it even in the most difficult times, despite prohibitions and humiliations. Thanks to them, the Romanian language has survived on this piece of land.
Today we can speak it freely, without fear. Even more so, we have a duty to take care of it. And, above all, to transmit to our children the love for the Romanian language, just as we received it from those before us. Let us leave them this precious legacy: a living language, spoken beautifully, in which to tell their stories, sing their doinas and express their longing.
Happy birthday, Romanian language!”

• Prime Minister Tofan announced a government reshuffle. Eugeniu Osmochescu was moved from the office of Deputy Prime Minister of Economic Development and Digitization5 to the role of Minister of Agriculture. In his place, Claudiu Năsui became the new Minister of Economy. Minister Năsui is Romanian and had been serving as a Romanian MP with the Party USR. He was formerly Romania’s Minister of Economy from 2020-2021. He had never been to Moldova before being invited to be a minister, and was made a citizen by President Sandu on August 25. Like Vasile Tofan, Năsui is a well-known admirer of Javier Milei and is committed to liberal reforms aimed at shrinking the size of the state.

• Mayor Ceban is working remotely and plans to see the city from a new perspective. He explained that while he recovers from surgery, he is attending meetings online, but that he will soon be getting out and about in a wheelchair and evaluating the city from the perspective of mobility issues. He has continued to dodge questions about how he broke both of his feet.

• Parliament has extended by 30 days the Commission of Inquiry looking into the management of state-owned companies. Commission Chair Dinu Plîngău called the situation with these companies “serious” and explained that more time is needed to understand the full situation and come up with proposals. He noted that it isn’t even clear how many companies the state owns, with records for 1359 registered since independence, but mixed records now. The State Register of Legal Entities lists 515, but of those 323 have no IDNO6. Meanwhile, the Public Property Register lists 163 companies while the State Fiscal Register lists 609. Plîngău has stated that they are focusing on the risk that board seats on these companies have turned into compensation tools rather than real management bodies.

• Parliament passed the Restart in Education reform in the second reading. The reform moves primary and secondary schools under the direct control of the Ministry of Education via the newly established Territorial Education Agencies. The plan is to establish national norms and standards and to centrally control funding so that rural schools don’t get left behind. The changes will come into effect on January 1, 2027.

• Prime Minister Tofan swam the Bosphorus with his son. He had previously said that while he was skipping August vacation to work, he needed to keep his promise to his son and swim alongside him. Tofan explained that his 14 year old son swam faster than him and that he is returning to Chisinau "with his batteries charged and his heart full."

Moldova Celebrates 35 Years

On August 27 Moldova celebrated 35 years of independence. The country observed the holiday with the largest independence celebration in the nation’s history under the tagline “Independence Unites Us.”

President Sandu addressed a message to citizens where she recognized the efforts of those who created an independent country and called on citizens to do their duty to help the nation develop. She stated:

"Independence is not about being the same, independence does not require us to be identical, but to be free together. Our direction is common - towards the European Union. Because there identity is respected, not controlled,"

The President also highlighted the importance of protecting democracy, saying “Our nation never wants to live in a prison country again.”

The day was marked by a series of events including a solemn gathering at the hall in the presidency where the declaration of independence was signed. This was attended by living signatories, members of parliament and the government, and international guests.

Romanian President Nicușor Dan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Chisinau for the celebration and held a joint press conference with President Sandu, who gave a speech saying:

“The fact that today, on Independence Day, you are both here, in Chisinau, has a special significance for us.

35 years ago, this week in August, the map of our region was changing. Romania was only 20 months after the revolution. On August 24, Ukraine proclaimed its independence. Three days later, Moldovans, young and old, gathered in the Great National Assembly Square and demanded the independence of the Republic of Moldova, and the Parliament voted for it on the same day.

We were three poor countries, on the edge of Europe, with ruined economies and an uncertain future. And today, three European states, we sit at the same table. Respected in Europe and in the world. (…)

Independence means having light and warmth in your home, no matter what is decided in Moscow. Selling your products where you and your work are respected. Choosing your own friends and path. Being treated as a partner, having a say. And deciding, by voting, who runs the country.

Independence means being able to choose. Friends, allies, the path.

You are given only one thing from the beginning: your neighbors. And the Republic of Moldova was lucky.”

Independence Day Military Parade

Over 2000 military personnel marched in central Chisinau alongside veterans and around 100 military vehicles. On social media President Sandu wrote that “A peaceful Moldova needs a Moldova capable of defending its peace” and stated that the army has modernized, broken from Soviet standards and that the country “can be proud of those who make sure we are safe.” In addition to Moldovan troops, honor guards from Ukraine, Germany, Lithuania, Italy, Poland, France, the Czech Republic and the United States joined the parade with the President writing that “their presence reminded us that we are stronger when we are not alone.”

In the evening, Presidents Sandu, Dan and Zelenskyy addressed the crowd at the Great National Assembly Square and spoke of Moldova and Ukraine’s future in Europe. President Zelenskyy addressed the crowd in Romanian, Ukrainian and English. He stated:

“Moldova has been through a lot in these 35 years and you have shown that Moldova is a strong nation, and without a doubt: a wonderful country. You are a wonderful people, a European nation. And I am sure that, united, we will all be part of Europe, a free and peaceful Europe – which matters most to our people, and we value human life in the same way. We want to live with dignity, in our own countries. We want to remain European countries.”

You can watch the full speech here:

Reflecting on 35 Years of Independence

35 years ago Moldova was one of many nations to declare independence and break away from the Soviet Union. Now, as Vladimir Putin seeks to rebuild the Russian Empire as a new “Prison of Nations,” the stakes of independence are starkly clear.

On August 27 five Russian drones violated Moldovan airspace in an action that can only be understood as a threat against that very independence. The country’s independence from Russia stood in clear contrast to what Moldova’s citizens have chosen to use their independence for - a choice for Europe, for democracy, for their native language and alphabet, for Peace.

On August 24 Ukraine celebrated its 35th anniversary of independence. On that day, Moldova’s parliament was lit up with the Ukrainian flag and President Sandu traveled to Kyiv to mark the occasion. There, she was decorated by President Zelenskyy with the Order of Princess Olga (1st degree), one of the nation’s highest state awards. She accepted this “on behalf of the people of the Republic of Moldova. In the first days of the war, families in our country opened their doors and hearts to women and children fleeing the bombs. This is their merit.”

In turn, President Sandu awarded President Zelenskyy with the Order of the Republic, Moldova’s highest state decoration. She did so to mark “his enormous contribution to protecting peace and freedom on the European continent,” noting that Ukraine fights so that Moldova can sleep peacefully.

Today Moldova and Ukraine are closer than at any time in history. The nations’ security and European futures are deeply interconnected, as are their pasts. As Russia seeks to erase both the common history and the countries’ future aspirations, it is a good time to sit and reflect on just how precious independence is.

Today we’re going to go through a quick roundup of the other top stories of the week. Then, Moldova Matters is going to take week off as I go on vacation for a spell. We’ll be back in September.

Subscribe now

NYTimes Investigation Highlights Moldova

On August 14, the New York Times published an investigation into Russian hybrid attacks against Moldova and the attempts to subvert the 2024 and 2025 elections. Longtime readers of Moldova Matters (or of the Moldovan press) will find very little new here, but the article is a good read and has a few sections that genuinely landed as a surprise for readers who have not followed Moldova. In one such example, the article cites multiple Western intelligence officials claiming that Putin briefed Russia’s top leadership that their goal in 2026 is “the collapse of NATO and the E.U. from within.” The article went on:

“Moldova is central to this effort. In the hierarchy of Kremlin priorities, the Western intelligence officials say, conquering Ukraine is first, and taking control in Moldova is second.”

The article noted that Putin has not given up on capturing Odesa and creating a land bridge to Moldova.

While it is unclear whether or not Moldova is central to Russia’s plans to collapse NATO, it has been abundantly clear from Chisinau that Moldova is central to Russia’s plan to do something. The Odesa line shows once again the mismatch between Russian capability and intention - but this article is a good reminder to the world that those intentions remain.

Lots of Drones This Week

As Ukraine suffers intense bombardment, including with new “missile drones,” Moldova has seen a major increase in crashes and overflights. On August 16, a drone flew through Moldova into Romania before being shot down by a Spanish F-18 around 24 miles north of Galati.

On August 17, a drone crashed and exploded outside the village of Talmaza in Ștefan Vodă. It happened in a corn field and left a crater with a 2 m diameter and a depth of 50 cm and threw wreckage in a spread of 45 m x 20 m. Based on the small turbojet engine found at the scene this was identified as one of the new missile drones, possibly a Geran-4.

August 20, saw one drone overflight, with the drone leaving Moldovan airspace and returning to Ukraine. It also saw one strike at a truck stop in Ukraine 150 m from the Giurgiulesti-Reni border crossing with Moldova. This second strike caused a brushfire which spread into Moldova but was quickly contained by fire fighters. In the morning, a mobile border patrol team found a crater and drone fragments in a field 1 km inside Moldova in the vicinity of the same border crossing point.

Then, August 21, a drone struck the Ukrainian side of the Myrne-Tabaki border crossing checkpoint, which is also in Southwestern Moldova. It damaged border crossing facilities 300 m from the border with Moldova.

Another missile drone crossed in and out of the airspace this morning.

Russia’s increased use of missile drones and ballistic missiles, combined with Ukraine’s depleting stock of Patriot interceptors, has made August a difficult month in Ukraine. The spillover into Moldova, whether accidental or not, also marks an escalation of the conflict along the southern border.

Politics

Here’s a roundup of the top political stories of the week:

• The Bashkan seat is vacant. That was the decision of the Gagauzia People’s Assembly on August 17 following the Court of Appeals ruling against former Bashkan Evghenia Gutsul. When residents of Gagauzia go to the polls on November 15 they may be voting for both delegate to the the People’s Assembly as well as the Bashkan - making this the biggest electoral test of the government’s' efforts to combat the Shor network in 2026.

• Mayor Ion Ceban had an accident while on vacation (somewhere). Chisinau’s mayor posted on his facebook page August 15 writing that he was returning to Moldova following an “unpleasant incident” while on a short vacation with his family. Once back home, he will immediately undergo surgery on his legs. Rumors of a drunken fall as well as pictures allegedly showing him in the airport in London (or on some fancy island) swirled around the internet. Ceban rejected the rumors but did not mention how he was injured or where he was traveling. He later posted a picture stating that a 7 hour surgery went well and thanking the doctors. Mayor Ceban has consistently been secretive around his travels, with a notorious case of lying about being in Moscow on February 24, 2022. In addition to the rumors of his injury, much of the coverage of this incident has focused on how he and his family have afforded such vacations on the mayor’s official salary.

• Teachers protest as the government punts on salary increases for public sector workers. Teachers and other public sector workers had been promised a wage increase from September 1, but the government now says that this was tied to the passage of a tax reform bill that stalled over the summer. Prime Minister Tofan and Minister of Education Dan Perciun both went to speak to the protestors and promised solutions. Later, they announced a one-time 4,000 lei payment for most teachers who earn less than 20,000 lei a month in October. This payment is meant to be a bridge to full salary increases that are now scheduled for January 1, 2027. The Prime Minister announced that the new wage law should see an increase of 15-25% for most public sector workers while gradually narrowing the wage gap from lowest to highest paid in institutions from 1:15 to 1:10.5.

• The Novodnistrovsk reservoir on the Dniester water continues to drain. On August 16 the inflow rate had fallen to 23 cubic meters / second while the outflow rate is being held at 75. This means that the reservoir is in serious decline and the Ministry of the Environment has continued to call for all households to implement water-saving measures.

• The Vulcănești – Chișinău power line’s commissioning has been postponed again. Minister of Energy Dorin Junghietu stated that a fault was found in a transformer, and it needed to be shipped back to the manufacturer in Spain for repairs1. While it appears to be a standard manufacturing fault, this does mark the first specific deadline in the Tofan government program that has been missed. The program promised that this power line, well over a year behind schedule, would be commissioned by the end of August 2026.

Subscribe now

On the night of August 8, a drone crashed in a field near the town of Crocmaz in the Ștefan Vodă district. According to police the drone crashed into a tree around 2.5 m off the ground, exploded and started a brush fire. No one was injured or killed, but nearby houses sustained damage.

Crocmaz is a town located on the Dniester river immediately across from Ukraine. It is located near the border crossings of Palanca and Tudora and is very close to the Et Cetera Winery.

Prime Minister Tofan addressed the incident, saying:

“It’s good that it hit a tree and not a house. At the same time, we have damage almost 800 meters away - at some households, windows shattered from the impact. (…) We feel this war. We all know who the aggressor is in this case.”

“Missile-Drone”

Initial statements from the police, and remarks condemning the incident from President Sandu, indicate that this is the first crash in Moldova of a new generation of Russian drones.

For the past several years, Russia’s main attack drone was the Geran-2, an improved copy of the Iranian Shahed-136. Russia has been testing a new version, the Geran-3, which replaces the Geran-2’s pusher propeller with a jet engine. A second “missile-drone” entered Moldovan airspace on the night of August 10 before departing towards Odesa one minute later. Local media reported this as a Geran-3, but reports on the Geran program indicate that the Geran-3 was a proof of concept model and is already out of production - replaced with the Geran-4, which uses a better Chinese turbojet engine. In either case, the Geran-3/4 has blurred the line between a drone and a cruise missile, offering substantially higher speeds, higher operating altitude and the ability to maneuver to evade threats.

New estimates indicate that jet-powered drones now comprise up to 2/3 of Russian drone attacks while Ukrainian intercept rates are falling.

The Geran-4 is itself giving way to the Geran-5, which is closing the drone-cruise missile loop with a design very similar to the original V1 flying bomb. Russia is effectively iterating its way from cheap loitering drones to cheap mass-produced, fully capable cruise missiles. This incident is Moldova’s first interaction with this new phase of the war.

Subscribe now

Other Security & Transnistria News

Here’s a roundup of the other top security stories of the week:

• Is a Polish former deputy minister of justice hiding in Transnistria? Polish radio RMF24 reported that former politician Marcin Romanowski, who is wanted on more than a dozen corruption charges, sent a petition to the Warsaw court with a return address in Tiraspol. Romanowski is facing up to 25 years in prison on charges of corruption, abuse of power and being part of an organized criminal group related to an alleged $40 million fraud when he was part of the Law and Justice government. In 2024, he fled Poland to evade arrest and was granted political asylum by Viktor Orban in Hungary. Following the fall of Orban, he vanished. Poland’s government has reached out to Moldova with a request to confirm his presence, and Poland’s ruling coalition called Transnistria “a new destination for politicians who have run into trouble with the law to flee.1” Moldovan police have confirmed that there is no evidence of Romanowski crossing the Moldovan border, and are taking steps to ascertain if he is in Transnistria.

• More Transnistrians are coming to Moldova for work. The first half of 2026 saw a 67% increase, to a total of more than 20,000, in the number of Transnistrian residents employed on the right bank. While the actual population of the region is unknown, this is likely to represent a considerable share of the total workforce2.

• Transnistria to pay VAT from September 1. A new draft resolution would levy VAT and excise taxes on 12 categories of goods from Transnistria by September 1. These include luxury goods such as alcohol, caviar, tobacco, fireworks, jewelry, etc. Taxes on five more categories, including critical raw-material inputs, are proposed to go into effect on January 1. Taxes on energy may be included from April to harmonize with the proposed changes in the rest of Moldova.

Water & Electricity Crisis Updates

On August 13, falling water levels in the Danube caused Romania to fully shut down its only nuclear power plant at Cernavoda. While Romania is quickly firing up emergency coal plants and asking users to conserve power, the country will still be a major net importer of electricity for the near term.

Right now experts estimate that Moldova will not run short of power, and neither country is actively discussing rolling blackouts or emergency measures. At the same time, the regional electricity market is coming under considerable strain, and Moldovan experts expect price increases.

Energocom announced that the company has finished purchasing natural gas for the winter and has contracts covering 76% of Moldova’s projected consumption from October 1, 2026 through September 30, 2027. This equates to 100% of winter consumption. These contracts were signed after 24 rounds of public tenders starting in July, and are not fixed-price but are based on formulas calculated on public indexes. Suppliers are still making purchases to ensure that Moldova will have 15% of yearly supplies in physical storage by November 1.

On the water front, the level of the Novodnistrovsk reservoir continues to fall rapidly. On August 11, the Dniester Commission decided to reduce outward flow from 85 to 75 cubic meters / second through the end of August. The goal is to stretch out the Dniester’s water reserves as long as possible since no substantial rain is forecast in the Carpathians in the next 2 months. Moldova’s authorities continue to ask people to conserve water as much as possible.

Other Political Updates

Here’s a roundup of the other politics and news updates of the week:

• Teachers threaten protests as promised salary increases are delayed. Their union has stated that unless their salaries are increased on September 1 as promised by the former Minister of Finance, they will take action. The government has explained that these increases are directly tied to the tax reform, which has been delayed3. The Ministry of Education has promised clarifications in the coming weeks.

• RFE/RL Investigation - more trouble on state company boards. According to an investigation by Europa Libera, substantial numbers of state employees serve on the boards of more than 3 state-owned companies. Legally, the limit is 3 board seats. At the Public Property Agency (APP), a total of 60 officials hold a combined 219 board seats - averaging 3.65. At the Ministry of Economy, 68 employees hold an average of 2 seats each. In 42 of the 81 companies controlled by the APP, officials sat on both the board and the state oversight bodies. Numerous state employees are paid more for their board positions than for their official salaries. The Ministry of Economy responded by launching internal investigations and forcing resignations of anyone on more than 3 boards. Quick analysis in a footnote4.

• The Ministry of Economy presented a new investment law that defines strategic investment sectors including R&D, IT industry, semiconductor / chip manufacturing, electronics manufacturing, energy production and more. Investors putting a minimum of €10 million into one of these sectors will benefit from fast-track permitting and a 1 stop shop bureaucracy concierge service operated by the Investment Agency. Investments of over €20 million will benefit from free leases of state land for up to 49 years, and investments over €40 million will be able to enter into direct agreements with the government. Strategic investment sectors explicitly exclude armaments and dual-use technologies, which are subject to more complex regulations.

• 100 foreign workers relocated to dormitories after TV8 investigation. The investigation had found workers from Bangladesh and Nepal were housed in repurposed train sleeper cars in cramped and unsanitary conditions. The General Inspectorate for Migration has reported that inspections of the company resulted in new housing.

• Taraclia will become a municipality (like Chisinau and Balti). The Taraclia district will be dissolved and the town of Taraclia will become a municipality, directly absorbing some towns while converting others into official suburbs. Secretary General of the Government Alexei Buzu explained: “Because in Taraclia we have our citizens of Bulgarian ethnicity, we want to offer them this status, so that they have these powers including on aspects related to cultural programs.” The Taraclia district has approximately 26,000 residents with 10,000 in the town, of whom a majority are ethnic Bulgarians. Asked whether Bulgaria pushed Moldova to do this, Secretary Buzu simply noted that the Bulgarian government was part of the discussion.

• There will be a military parade on Independence Day. It will include more than 2,000 soldiers and security personnel from Moldova and partner countries, and will take place in the city center. This will include 150 Moldovan veterans and soldiers from Romania, Ukraine, Italy, France, Poland, Lithuania, the Czech Republic and the United States. In addition to the soldiers, around 100 military vehicles will take part in the parade. Asked my Moldova is putting its military in the center of this celebration, President Sandu replied that it will highlight recent defense investments, and underscore that “peace is paramount, and the security of our citizens is our top priority.”

First though, an appeal - this all takes A LOT of time. If Moldova Matters provides you value, or if you just want to support the work - please become a paid subscriber. And if you are reading this for work - don’t forget, we have organizational subscription options as well.

Subscribe now

Get 10% off a group subscription

Heat and Drought Create Dual Crises

This week Moldova is facing a heat wave, but overall has seen a mild summer with one of the best years for agriculture in some time. But sustained heat waves and drought in the region have caused a dual water and electricity crisis that is quite literally flowing down stream to Moldova.

Crisis 1: Reduced Dniester Flow Threatens Chisinau’s Water Supply

A lack of rainfall in the upper Dniester (Romanian Nistru1) has reduced inflows to the Novodnistrovsk reservoir and caused it to fall to a critical level. On July 31 the Dniester Commission held an extraordinary meeting and agreed to reduce outflows from the reservoir from 100 m³/s to 85 m³/s. The current inflow rate is 30 m³/s, meaning that even with the reduction the reservoir is draining rapidly. The commission agreed to maintain this level for 2 weeks but will then need to reevaluate.

According to the Ministry of Environment, a critical problem is the Chisinau water intake station in Vadul lui Voda. This is a fixed intake and cannot adjust to critically low water levels.

The situation has led Environment Minister Gheorghe Hajder to warn that Moldova is consuming its strategic reserve and called on people to save water saying “Every liter saved counts.”

Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban initially rejected worries, claiming that the water level at the pump station is fine so long as the government does its job of making sure the outflow from the Novodnistrovsk reservoir remains adequate2. Minister Hajder shot back, criticizing Chisinau City Hall’s failure to modernize the pump station. Prime Minister Tofan intervened and answered Mayor Ceban’s simultaneous request for emergency pumps, stating:

“Providing citizens with water should not be a subject of debate and I will not accept its politicization. I have ordered the release of motor pumps from the stocks of the Material Reserves Agency (MAI) to support the works carried out by the Chisinau City Hall.”

The government has continued to supply pumps as the Chisinau authorities install emergency water feeds to the pump station. Simultaneously, Mayor Ceban announced the preparation of 213 water storage and distribution points around the city and noted that city authorities have 253 Eurocubes, 20 tank trucks and 45 specialized water units3 prepared to distribute water in case of disruptions. Additionally, technical water for irrigation and green spaces is being pumped from the capital’s lakes and from the Chisinau mine4.

Crisis 2: Reduced Danube Flow Sparks Electricity Crisis

At the same time, the Danube River is also seeing historically low water levels due to drought. This has created a major electricity crisis as Hungary almost fully shut down Paks, its sole nuclear power plant, and Romania shut down Unit 1 of its Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant. Both plants require river water to cool the reactors. Paks supplies over half of Hungary’s electricity, while Romania is facing a substantial electricity deficit.

This has created an unprecedented situation where Romania is relying on Moldovan energy company Energocom to supply imported electricity from Ukraine. At the same time Romania is taking radical steps to try to balance its grid. Acting Prime Minister Bolojan has called for voluntary reductions from households and industry, and announced that Dacia and Ford are closing their auto manufacturing plants in Romania through August 19 in order to save electricity.

At the same time, the Romanian military is attempting to divert the Danube in order to raise the water level at the Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant by a few critical centimeters. The army detonated Pârjoaia rock to partially redirect the flow, while the navy is working to sink barges and partially block one branch of the river in order to redirect water towards the plant.

The goal is to offset the continued fall of the water level and keep reactor 2 running.

Moldovan Government Response

Moldova is facing a critical electrical shortage each evening from around 18:00 - 22:00 during peak hours - especially after the sun sets and solar production goes offline. Romania has no electricity to supply, so Energocom is scrambling to purchase power from emergency supply at exorbitant prices. The National Crisis Management Commission (CNMC), chaired by Prime Minister Tofan, met on August 3 and put in place emergency measures. They have limited power exports during peak hours and called on households and companies to conserve power. Government buildings are reducing all non-critical power consumption and turning off fountains and decorative lighting. Companies are requested to do the same. Individuals are urged to avoid elevators between 06:00 - 09:00 and 18:00 - 23:00 in order to conserve power and avoid the risk of becoming stuck in an outage.

Similarly, the government has called on people to conserve water and asked farmers to irrigate overnight and according to specialized schedules.

Speaking of the dual crises, President Sandu called on people to conserve power and water and stated that while the government was working on mitigating the crises, “there are no magic solutions.”

Subscribe now

Tax Reform 2.0

On August 6, Prime Minister Tofan announced a second attempt at a major tax reform with a speech laying out principal elements of the reform as well as the government’s rationale for the changes being proposed. In that speech he started by completely rejecting the core philosophy of the previous tax reform laid out under his predecessor saying:

“I want to start with a simple idea: the way a country organizes its taxes influences the way its economy works. If we want more people to work legally, we need to tax labor in a way that encourages legal work. If we want companies to invest more, we need to leave them more capital for investment. If we want to discourage vices — tobacco, vaping, especially among young people, excessive alcohol consumption, gambling, if we want the environment not to be polluted by fireworks — this must also be reflected in tax policy.”

He went on to outline a set of measures that he claims will produce a tax code that is “simpler, fairer and more difficult to circumvent.” The core approach is to reduce taxes on labor and investments, raise taxes on vices and reduce exceptions. Summing it up, he stated that “our approach is not ‘raise taxes.’ Our approach is: put the accents right.”

A deep dive into the proposals will have to wait for a future article, but here are a few of the more important announcements:

• Payroll taxes: a 35% increase in the personal exemption. Increased from 29,700 lei annually to 40,000 (the previous reform proposal removed it entirely).

• 0% taxes on reinvested profits for companies up to 200 million lei revenue (current ceiling was 100 million).

• Raised tax on dividends from 6% to 8%

• VAT Changes: “Basic” food items5 and medicines remain at 8%, other foods, HoReCa and tourism up to 12%, electricity and gas to go up to 20% in April 2027 for energy consumed above a tax-free / low tax allotment per household.

• Sin Taxes: New 6% excise tax on gambling, 50% increase in excise taxes on vaping, new excise taxes on sugary drinks and energy drinks (rates not announced), new 25% excise tax on fireworks, progressively increasing excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco.

• Temu / Parcels from outside Moldova: 20% VAT and 12 lei fix tax per package

• 50% increased taxes on bank profits: one year only for 2027

We will come back to this topic in much more detail later. But for now, there are a few important things to note. Firstly, this reform is slower, and the Prime Minister emphasized predictability as a key goal. Secondly, it is less rushed - there are 2 weeks for public consultations (rather than 5 days) for a reform that is less sweeping. Thirdly, Prime Minister Tofan has thrown his political weight behind it, and, through this speech and subsequent interviews is actively making the case for the reform.

It is explained as setting a direction and tone, with officials indicating a larger reform to the tax code is coming, presumably next year

LPA Reform Updates

Under the proposed Local Public Administration (LPA) Reform, towns and villages had until July 31 to commit to voluntary amalgamation. By that date, 761 of 890 mayoralties had begun the process, with around 430 finalizing plans and many others stuck or delayed in the process. Given this, the State Chancellery announced an extension of the deadline to August 31.

Recall, the goal of LPA reform is to incentivize small villages to voluntarily combine into larger entities. In exchange for this decision, the government is offering substantial infrastructure funding for towns that choose to combine voluntarily.

Frank Bracco, recently Country Director for the Tony Blair Institute in Moldova, published an interactive map showing the progress of this reform. I highly recommend it for anyone trying to get into the weeds on this process.

You can find it at this link.

At least 60 mayoralties have refused any participation in the process. Under the rules of the process, they risk “normative amalgamation,” aka being merged with their neighbors with neither a say in the process nor financial incentives.

President Sandu recently warned of this saying:

“I regret that several dozen city halls refused to participate in voluntary consolidation; residents of these communities will not be able to benefit from the financial resources provided by the government. The state will not leave anyone behind; all citizens deserve a decent standard of living. However, citizens should know that city halls that did not voluntarily decide to merge their administrations will be consolidated without financial incentives or the opportunity to choose which city halls to merge with,”

International Affairs

On July 30, Prime Minister Tofan made his first international trip, traveling to Bucharest and meeting with Acting Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan and President Nicușor Dan. He spoke about Moldova’s important relationship with Romania both for EU integration and for growing the economy, making the pitch for Romanian companies to consider investing in Moldova.

While the government might have hoped this would be the international affairs story of the week… it really wasn’t. Instead, on August 3, the number one story in Moldova was about a delegation from the Taliban government of Afghanistan, which landed at the Chisinau airport on a mission to talk about agricultural cooperation.

According to the Kabul Tribune, this is a senior delegation from the Taliban’s Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, led by Deputy Minister Sadr Azam Osmani, which “traveled to Moldova at the official invitation of the Moldovan government to discuss expanding practical and technical cooperation between the two countries.”

This led to an explosion of criticism of the government and a race to figure out what was going on. It turns out that while they did not come at the “official invitation” of Moldova’s government (which does not recognize the Taliban), they did get officially invited via a process that has been reported to be both haphazard and embarrassing.

The process started when a Moldovan agricultural producer who currently exports to Uzbekistan began investigating expansion into the Afghan market. Under their rules, the Taliban require an official visit/inspection when starting up a new trade relationship. The businessman approached the Ministry of Agriculture where State Secretary Vasile Șarban decided to help, later explaining that “I believe it is right for the Moldovan authorities to take care of Moldovan economic agents.” He then sent an official request to the Ministry of Foriegn Affairs to facilitate this access and issue visas, which they did.

Apparently, at no point was the “Taliban Delegation” topic thought important enough to bring to the attention of either Minister. Also, because none of the men is individually under sanctions, neither Ministry was required to notify the Security and Intelligence Service (SIS).

Prime Minister Tofan called the situation “embarrassing and unacceptable” and explained that while all procedures were followed normally and according to the law, “An obviously sensitive case was treated as a routine administrative file. The result was a wrong decision.” He called on all officials to be more responsible, saying “We do not manage papers, we manage a country and we must be more careful when making decisions.”

The “delegation” stayed through their planned trip on August 7, presumably meeting with the businessman but without any official meetings or recognition from the Moldovan government.

Security & Transnistria

Here’s a roundup of the top security stories of the week:

• South Ossetian “representative” Vitalii Iankovski was photographed in Tiraspol. The “diplomatic representative” from a non-state to a non-state was previously barred from entering Moldova and declared undesirable for 5 years. Zona de Securitate reported that he attended events there and was conspicuously photographed on July 29. Moldovan officials have stated that they do not know how Iankovski managed to enter Transnistria. Vitalii Iankovski has both Russian and Ukrainian citizenship.

• Fragments of a Geran-2 drone were found in the village of Văleni. The crash of another Russian drone in a rural part of the Cahul district triggered the normal round of diplomatic protests.

Other Politics & News

Here’s a roundup of the other top stories of the week:

• The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) raised the base rate half a point to 7.5%. They cited the upward trajectory of inflation “caused by factors associated with consumer demand against the background of persistent supply shocks.” NBM estimated the annual inflation rate to have hit 6.51% in June, just above the targeted 5±1.5%. They now estimate that inflation will continue to rise through the end of 2026 and not return to the target range until Q3 2027.

• Parliament has approved a new draft electoral code in the first reading. The code would eliminate single member constituency elections in Gagauzia and return the region to a proportional representation system. The coming elections, scheduled for November 15, would still be on the old system with the new one coming into place at the next local elections in the autonomous region. Additionally, new processes are put in place to regulate and coordinate postal voting in elections.

• Ana Revenco resigned as director of the Center for Strategic Communication and Countering Disinformation (STRATCOM). She had run the center since she was appointed to start it in October 2023 and did not announce a reason for her departure. In a statement, Revenco stressed the distance they had come from a startup in the midst of crisis to what is now a “functional institution with a professional team and clear operating mechanisms." President Sandu accepted Revenco’s resignation and appointed Liliana Vițu as the new STRATCOM director. Vițu had just announced her resignation as the Director of the Audiovisual Council, which replaced her with her Vice Director Aneta Gonța.

Following his swearing in on July 22, Prime Minister Vasile Tofan held his first cabinet meeting where he told the ministers to “tighten their belts.” He took particular aim at official travel, noting that “travel budgets are quite large” and stating that some of it is touristic in nature. He stated:

“I learned today that the Prime Minister approves all visits outside the country. (…) I want to tell you that I will be much more demanding in approving these visits,”

In the meeting he addressed public concerns about “unspeakable” public sector salaries. He stated that a new wage law is needed (and coming) that will codify salary rates as well as practices around bonuses. But that in the meantime, all ministers were instructed to “bring order” to the agencies and organizations in their portfolios.

Speaking about the tax reform, Tofan stated that “The first attempt to bring the tax reform to fruition was not successful, to put it delicately. In fact, it was a failure.” But he emphasized the need for a major reform of the tax system and directed the Ministry of Finance to publish a draft by August 6th. He told the assembled ministers that he would be involved in the process and personally responsible for this reform.

This drew a stark contrast with his predecessor who put out his first statement on the tax reform more than 2 weeks after he stepped down. In it he praised the professionalism of the reform, noted that it was approved by the IMF, compared critics to “amateur league” football players and generally punched back at critics1.

Prime Minister Tofan has also announcement members of his team, with former Minister of Finance Andrian Gavrilită returning to government as his chief economic advisor. Carolina Bogatiuc will be his chief of staff and journalist Dumitru Ciorici will be his press secretary.

Radu Musteața’s Turbulent 3 Days in Office

An early challenge for the Tofan government came when Journal TV published a picture of the brand new Minister of Agriculture, Radu Musteața, allegedly showing him at a Democratic Party (PDM) meeting. The story reported that the photo in question showed Musteața receiving his PDM membership card from PDM MP Nae Simion Pleșca. Allegedly, this occurred sometime in 2017.

This story mattered because it alleged that Musteața had joined Vladimir Plahotniuc’s PDM at the height of the oligarch’s state capture.

Minister Musteața adamantly denied this writing on facebook that “I have never led any territorial organization of a political party and I have not been a member of the Democratic Party.” He went on to repeat categorical denials in multiple statements and on TV interviews.

Prime Minister Tofan indicated that he believed Musteață and that lacking clear evidence contradicting his statements, “Radu Musteață has my full support.” This evidence soon began piling up with PDM’s successor party, PSDE stating that their records show that was a PDM member and had a party leadership position in Ciocana.

After 3 days as Minister of Agriculture, Radu Musteață resigned from his position claiming that he did so to protect the team and maintain trust, asking that the action “not be tarnished and eroded by false and manipulative information.” Effectively, he resigned while still denying the accusations.

Asked to comment, Speaker Igor Grosu stated that he believed Musteață when he said he was not a PDM party member and expressed regret that he resigned. The same day PSDE produced a copy of his signed application for membership and Musteață finally admitted that he lied. He continued to downplay his interactions with PDM as “insignificant” but admitted that he regretted that he “did not have the courage to tell the whole truth.”

This marks one of the shortest tenures of any minister in Moldovan history2 and a bumpy start for the new government. No announcement of a new candidate for Minister of Agriculture has been made to date.

Politics & News

Here’s a roundup of the other top politics stories of the week:

• Anti-corruption police (CNA) detain 3 in relation to MoldATSA scandal. At the same time the CNA conducted 25 searches in relation to alleged criminal decision making at the company - including violate public procurement, fake hiring competitions, unjustified salaries and bonuses and more. CNA noted that MoldATSA spent 9 million lei on staff trainings in the first 5 months of 2025 alone including 106,000 lei spent on sending a staffer to the UK for a beginner English course. Arrests targeted decision makers including the company’s Chief Accountant. Two of the 3 arrested are confined for 30 days detention while one is on house arrest.

• The government approved the “Restart in Education” reform aimed at centralizing school administration. Under the proposed law, all schools above the level of kindergarten will be subordinated directly to the Ministry of Education via newly established Territorial Education Agencies. Currently, schools are administered locally by district and municipal councils. Minister of Education Dan Perciun explained the reform as necessary for uniform standards and conditions throughout the country.

• The Model Schools network is expanding. Parliament approved an investment of €50 million euros to remodel 20 more schools in the regions. Of the investment, €40 million will come from the European Investment Bank (EIB) as a loan. This investment will bring the total number of schools in the program up to 90 and when renovations are complete will see 1 in 4 children in Moldova enrolled in a Model School.

• The government approved an anti-SLAPP law. The proposed law would create new protections against SLAPP lawsuits,3 allowing judges to rapidly throw out obviously unfounded claims, sanction those committing abuses by filing these suits and create protections for defendants of SLAPP suits to more easily recoup their legal costs. This law is designed to protect journalists and civil society activists and brings Moldovan legislation into line with EU directives.

• The government approved a legal framework for cryptocurrencies. It delegates supervision of the digital currencies and assets markets to the National Bank (NBM) and National Financial Market Commission. The framework envisions separate regulations for fiat-backed stablecoins, coins backed by other assets and “other” crypto currencies. Currently Moldova has no regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies effectively making them illegal in the country.

• 30 day State of Alert declared in the area of energy security. The government noted that commercial diesel stocks fell from 17.6 days supply at the end of June to 6.9 days on July 27. Fuel imports continue to be affected by the War in Iran as well as supply chain disruptions elsewhere - including Kazakhstan severely reducing outputs following Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil terminals. Uncertainty has caused prices to resume climbing after a few weeks of relative plateau, with diesel prices now 50.6% higher than pre-war (in Iran) levels and gasoline 29% higher. Under the state of alert fuel imports are expedited through special corridors and certain exports are prohibited.

• 30 day State of Alert declared in the area of water security. The alert comes in the context of reduced water levels in the Novodnestrovsk reservoir which is at a record low level for this time of year and is rapidly draining. If Ukraine restricts outflow from the reservoir it could substantially reduce the flow of the Nistru river, impacting Moldova’s water supply and threaten the provision of water to towns and even to Chisinau. The state of alert will increase monitoring of river flows and direct downs to switch to alternative water sources where available.

• On July 20 TV8 released their long signaled investigation into the real estate dealings of Alexandr Trubca. By the time of release, Tubca had already resigned from parliament but continues to deny wrongdoing. The investigation outlines how Tubca entered parliament 5 years ago with modest earnings and property and is today on the verge of becoming a euro millionaire. His increase in wealth comes entirely from an expanding property portfolio, mostly in the Chisinau suburb of Trușeni but also in Romania. In Trușeni, his companies have invested in 2 projects, one to build a 400 unit apartment building and another to develop 34 single family homes. TV8 reported that his partners include the recently resigned director of the Public Property Agency as well as PAS donors. Trubca struggled to explain the source of his funds, noting that for some projects he borrowed the investment money4 and others were funded from proceeds from the first project - though TV8 noted that this timeline does not match up and his company showed no revenues at the time of the second investment. Alexandr Trubca continues to deny wrongdoing.

The Rabbi and the Rocket Launchers?

Back in November 2025, customs officers at the Leușeni-Albița border crossing between Moldova and Romania discovered a large cache of weapons hidden inside a truck. This story prompted a wave of disinformation with Russian proxies alleging the smuggling of American Stinger missiles / drugs / all manner of other conspiracies (in fact, all the weapons were Russian / Soviet).

The truck driver is in Romanian custody and continues to assert that he did not know what was in the truck. Moldova arrested 5 additional alleged conspirators and one plead guilty this week, getting a 5 year sentence with 3 suspended. His name is Eugeniu Pralea and he was the courier who brought the weapons into Moldova from Ukraine. Documents related to his sentencing have shed light on the details of the case with some startling revelations. They include:

• Weapons: The shipment included 8 RPG-30 anti-tank grenade launchers, a launch tube for a 9K333 Verba anti-aircraft missile system, 18 9M133 Kornet laser-guided anti-tank missile systems and an entire Geran 2 drone (disassembled and with a defective motor).

• Smuggling from Ukraine to Moldova: The weapons were smuggled out of Ukraine from 2023 - 2025. Eugeniu Pralea was hired for this and claims to have accepted the job on the condition that the smuggled goods were neither weapons nor drugs. He claims to have been told it was electronic parts and / or goods related to humanitarian aid projects. He claims that no “arrangements” were made with Moldovan customs officers at Palanca because the shipments were broken into small amounts and never discovered.

• Destination - Israel: After being accumulated over 2 years and stored in a warehouse in Moldova, the weapons were wrapped in a special material meant to fool border scanners. The truck carrying them was destined for the port of Constanta in Romania and then on to Israel.

• Organizer - Rabbi Pinhas Zaltzman: Eugeniu Pralea alleges that Rabbi Zaltzman organized the shipments from Ukraine to Moldova and onward to Israel.

Searches turned up multiple phone calls and text messages between the defendants and the Rabbi including pictures of the weapons and discussion about them. Rabbi Pinhas Zaltzman has professed innocence and is currently in Israel. Prosecutors have not commented on whether or not he is being investigated.

Rabbi Pinhas Zaltzman titles himself the “Chief Rabbi of the Republic of Moldova” and is a prominent figure in Moldova’s Orthodox Jewish Community based at the historic “Hay” synagogue. However, there is no official “Chief Rabbi of the Republic of Moldova” and the title is self-styled. The “Jewish Community of the Republic of Moldova5” released statements noting that the title of “Chief Rabbi” is self appointed and that he has “never been appointed, elected or confirmed in any religious leadership position within the Jewish Community of the Republic of Moldova by its statutory bodies.”

Other Security and Defense News

Here’s a roundup of the other security, defense and hybrid war news”

• Romania shoots down 3 Russian drones in 48 hours. For the first time since the full scale invasion of Ukraine, the Romanian air force has downed 3 Russian drones that entered its airspace - one in Buzău and 2 in the Danube Delta region. Romania expelled one Russian diplomat in protest against the incursions. President Sandu condemned the violation of Romanian airspace and stated that

  “Romania’s security is the security of the Republic of Moldova. We stand with Romania.”

• Moldova has delayed the imposition of VAT and excise taxes on Transnistria until September 1. The taxes, which were supposed to come into force on August 1, are being delayed due to the change in government. Transnistria’s “Foreign Minister” Vitaly Ignatiev recently refused to travel to Chisinau for a meeting in the 1+1 format on the tax changes stating that the issue is “not on the negotiating agenda.” Ignatiev has continuously refused to travel to Moldova for fear of arrest under a law on separatism - a fear which the Moldovan authorities call unfounded.

• Three Shor parties to be dissolved by court decision. The "Renaissance,” “Chance” and “Alternative and Salvation Force of Moldova” parties were found to be successors to the unconstitutional Shor Party and have been dissolved. The Moldova Mare (Greater Moldova) party was suspended for 12 months. These rules mark wins for the Ministry of Justice, which petitioned for their dissolution based on referrals from the Central Election Commission (CEC).

• “Evrazia” declared an extremist organization. The decision comes from Moldova’s Court of Appeals and attaches criminal liability to Moldovan citizens - at home or abroad - which fund Evrazia or participate in their programs. The request for this designation came from Moldova’s Security and Intelligence Service (SIS) in July 2025.

International Affairs

Here’s a roundup of the top international affairs stories of the week:

• Indian President Droupadi Murmu visited Chisinau. This marked the first visit from the head of state of the Republic of India since Moldovan independence. In meetings with President Sandu they discussed economic cooperation, deeper cooperation in higher education6 and investments. She also participated in the first Moldova-India Business Forum which was organized by Invest Moldova.

• The United States drops all tariffs against Moldova (for now). On July 24th the Trump Administration imposed a sweeping new tariff regime on imports from more than 80 countries including the European Union. This new regime replaced the global 10 percent duty that had expired at midnight which itself replaced the “Liberation Day” tariffs that were struck down by the Supreme Court. This newest iteration utilizes the Trade Act of 1974 and is designed to combat countries that engage in “forced labor.” This join a patchwork of other tariffs, including some levied under a revived Smoot–Hawley authority7 as part of the ever changing trade policy of the United States. Moldova was not included in the recent announcements which targeted major trading partners and largely skipped smaller countries (for the time being). This means that the US tariff on Moldovan goods has gone from 31% (announced, not implemented), to 25% to 10% to 15% to 0% in the last year and a half.

Today we’re going to look at the new cabinet - who’s in, and who’s out - as well as the vote of confident and parliamentary debate. In a future, subscriber only article, we will look at Prime Minister Tofan’s program in depth. Running over 147 pages it is both ambitious, unusual and deserves a deep dive in itself.

Subscribe now

Meet the Ministers

While Tofan has come in with a major shift in tone and priorities, he is largely keeping the same team of ministers assembled by former Prime Minister Munteanu. No changes have been made to the key security and foreign affairs portfolios - and the changes that have been made largely prioritize experience and continuity rather than radical shifts.

Minister of Finance

Victoria Belous will return to the position of Minister of Finance. She previously held the office from July 2024 - November 2025 when she departed after having been elected to parliament. Andrian Gavriliță was appointed to the Ministry. Belous will now leave parliament and replace Gavriliță.

Prior to becoming Minister the first time, Victoria Belous worked for 17 years in the State Tax Service, working her way up through the ranks. Previously as Minister, her profile had been something of a studious technocrat and supporter of the status quo. In parliament, her profile shifted dramatically as she became a vocal proponent for reform and one of the most articulate members of the PAS faction on economic and fiscal issues. Last month, when MP Radu Marian stepped down as Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee for Economy, Budget and Finance she took his place.

Andrian Gavriliță wrote a long facebook post after the change was announced writing “Unfortunately, being a minister is more than just theory, figures, understandings with the IMF, and rational decisions. It’s a deeply political role.” Referencing the tax reform that he championed, he blamed personal mistakes as well as very bad timing - referring to the MoldATSA scandal among others - for the media storm surrounding his last month in office.

Minister of Agriculture

Ludmila Catlabuga, who has led the Ministry of Agriculture since November 2024, will be replaced with Director of the National Food Safety Agency (ANSA) Radu Musteața. After graduating from the State University of Moldova with a bachelors in Chemical Technology and Biotechnology and a masters in Environmental Protection, Radu Musteața joined ANSA in 2013 and has held various positions before becoming the director in 2021.

Ludmila Catlabuga departed expressing hope “that the relationship and communication between the ministry and people in agriculture be no worse than the one we managed to build.”

Minister of Health

Alexandru Gasnaș will replace Emil Ceban as Minister of Health. Gasnaș had previously served as advisor to President Sandu in the field of health and as a State Secretary in the Ministry of Health. He is a neurologist, who has been both an associate professor at the Nicolae Testemițanu State University of Medicine and Pharmacy, and headed the department of Neurology, Internal Diseases and Epileptology at the Institute of Emergency Medicine.

Emil Ceban will return to the position of Rector of the Nicolae Testemițanu State University of Medicine and Pharmacy.

Minister of Culture

Dan Suruceanu will replace Cristian Jardan as Minister of Culture. Suruceanu has been the deputy administrator of the Chisinau Arena since 2023 and prior to that worked for at least some of his career at the National Museum of Arts1.

Presenting the Cabinet and Program in Parliament

On Tuesday July 21 Vasile Tofan led his proposed cabinet of ministers to parliament to present their governing program and ask for a vote of confidence from the legislature.

In parliament, Vasile Tofan started by stating the challenges ahead and noting that “There is no point in denying that we are going through a crisis.” He noted that the country faces simultaneous economic and political tensions but that there is a “single window of opportunity” in the coming years. He stated:

“I want us to find the balance between the necessary changes and the stability of the foundation together. Let’s make capital repairs, but let’s not shake the walls. We are not the first country to go through such challenges. Other small countries – Ireland, Estonia, New Zealand – have had such complicated moments and emerged victorious from them. I know that any comparison is not perfect, but such examples encourage us.”

Tofan went on to structure his address to the deputies around the 5 priorities outlined in his program of government.

Priority 1. Relaunching economic growth

He spoke of anemic GDP growth, ballooning imports and shrinking exports and “enormous” challenges including…

“… a small internal market, a declining population, a labor shortage, insufficient capital, an agriculture vulnerable to drought, and an economy that exports too much raw material and too little added value.”

Tofan stated that the government’s starting priority is to “bring back confidence” because “Pessimism is the most dangerous disease of an economy.”

Priority 2. Accelerating accession to the European Union

“The objective of the mandate is to be ready to complete the negotiations and prepare for the signing of the Accession Treaty by the end of 2028”

Tofan once again centered the goal of being prepared to join the EU in 2028. He stressed the need to open all negotiating clusters this year and to move rapidly through reforms. At the same time he emphasized that simply changing rules and laws does not improve people’s lives - and committed his team towards careful implementation so that people feel these changes.

Priority 3. An efficient, digital and accountable state

“Too often, the state asks the citizen to be more organized than it is.”

In his remarks, Mr. Tofan noted cases where state institutions make citizens run from office to office to resubmit paperwork that the state already has in its possession2. He spoke of overlapping responsibilities between agencies and programs and policies not based on results.

“The state must be smaller where it duplicates functions and stronger where it is indispensable – security, justice, infrastructure, education, health, and protection of the vulnerable.”

Priority 4. Security, justice and peace

“I lived in Kyiv. I know the sound of the missile alarm. I know how a Shahed flies and how a Kalibr hits. I know what it’s like to collect the shards of broken windows in the morning from the explosion of an Iskander 50 meters from your house.”

Tofan spoke of the “real and interconnected” risks that Moldova faces. Attacks against energy systems, cyberattacks, disinformation, organized crime and the war next door. He stated that “Constitutional neutrality does not oblige the Republic of Moldova to be weak” and tied investments in defense and law enforcement with a modernizing of citizen services3.

Priority 5. Increasing the quality of life and social cohesion

“Citizens do not live by macroeconomic indicators. They live by the salary they receive at the end of the month, by the bill they have to pay, by the waiting time at the doctor's office, by the quality of their child's school, and by the certainty that their parents will have support in their old age.”

Tofan spoke of the need to translate his plans for economic growth into good jobs and better public services. He laid out concrete targets for increasing employment rates by making the labor code more flexible while also maintaining protections for employees’ rights.

Debate and Vote

After delivering his speech, the parliamentary session moved to a Q&A format. From 12:20 pm until 8:27 pm Vasile Tofan answered questions about his team, his program and himself. Throughout he proved to have deft political instincts, addressing complex questions head-on while not falling into traps or going down topical cul-de-sacs. Compared to recent prime ministers, he seemed much more comfortable and confident speaking extemporaneously and he was consistently able to pivot questions back to his focus area - the economy.

Following the debate, parliament voted with 53 MPs for, 21 against and 21 abstaining. Two PAS MPs did not vote in support: Alexandr Trubca who recently resigned and whose seat has yet to be filled, and Vasile Grădinaru who previously submitted a request for absence for personal reasons. All MPs from Alternative, Democracy at Home and Our Party abstained along with 1 MP from the Socialists. The remaining Socialist and Communist MPs voted no.

Vasile Tofan is Sworn in as Prime Minister

On July 22 President Maia Sandu swore in Vasile Tofan as Prime Minister alongside his cabinet of minister. She emphasized EU integration as the clear agenda of the government and called on the new Prime Minister to keep the promises he made in parliament the day before.

Moldova has a new Prime Minister and government, we’ll return to follow their first steps in this week’s roundup.

Prime Minister Designate Vasile Tofan will present the composition of his government and their program to parliament for a vote of confidence on Tuesday July 21.

Since his appointment on Saturday, Tofan has been holding consultations with business associations, opposition political parties, civic groups and the interim government. He met with all 16 acting ministers to discuss the critical priorities for the next 12 months. No acting minister confirmed to the press that their job is safe and none has resigned so far.

In remarks so far, Tofan has signaled continuity - stressing that he would not disrupt ongoing reform processes such as the local public administration reform that he previously opposed publicly. In various remarks he stressed the importance of EU integration and building a growing and competitive economy as his top priorities.

Vasile Tofan turned 44 years old the day after his appointment by President Sandu. He and his wife welcomed their 4th child, becoming the parents of 4 boys, less than one month ago. Tofan has joked that his wife is not thrilled with his acceptance of this mandate but supportive.

EU Opens Cluster 6 with Moldova and Ukraine

On Tuesday July 14 the European Union opened negotiations on Cluster 6: External Relations with Moldova and Ukraine. For Moldova, this was made official at the 3rd Moldova - EU Intergovernmental Conference in Brussels with Moldova being represented by Interim PM Eugeniu Osmochescu. Cluster 6 contains 2 negotiating chapters titled “External relations” and “Foreign, security and defense policy.”

July 14 came to be called “Super Tuesday” as the EU held 4 intergovernmental conferences. While Moldova and Ukraine both opened a cluster, Albania provisionally closed 3 chapters and Montenegro provisionally closed 2. Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos named it “Super Tuesday” as she noted that no comparable step in EU enlargement had taken place since 2002. These moves come in the context of Hungary no longer blocking some aspects of enlargement after Viktor Orban’s defeat this Spring.

International Affairs & Security

Here’s a roundup of the top international affairs & security stories of the week:

• President Sandu represented Moldova at the Coalition of the Willing (CoW) meeting in Paris on July 13. This is the first time that Moldova has participated in the CoW and marks a further commitment in support of the defense of Ukraine. In remarks, President Sandu stressed that Moldova is not the only neutral nation that participates and that Moldova joins “a group of countries, largely European, who have united their efforts to support Ukraine to reach a ceasefire and, subsequently, a just peace, which will prevent further aggression.”

• German Ambassador to Moldova Hubert Knirsch created a scandal when he suggested that Romanian and “Moldovan” might be different languages. In an interview on Jurnal TV, the Ambassador was asked about the topic of Moldova uniting with Romania with the interviewer noting that “we were once one country, we speak the same language, we have a common culture, traditions and religion.” The Ambassador noted that any decision on union belongs to the citizens of Moldova and Romania, but questioned the idea that the countries share a common language and religion. His formulation was interpreted by many in the public as saying that some people call the language “Moldovan” and some call it “Romanian” - turned into an explosive controversy. He clarified in a later video that he was speaking of the linguistic diversity of the country. The Ambassador received massive criticism online with some even suggesting that the Ambassador is a Russian agent. Ambassador Knirsch has apologized for not being “clear and precise” and promised to go on a listening tour to better understand the “concerns” raised1.

• President Maia Sandu attended the Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit in Kyiv. There she advocated for more air defense support for Ukraine, more pressure on Russia and increased sanctions. She held bilateral meetings with President Zelenskyy, the Prime Minister of Croatia, Andrej Plenković and the Prime Minister of Slovenia Janez Janša. Moldova officially signed the Kyiv Declaration reiterating support for Ukraine in the war against Russia.

• Russia’s FSB claims to have foiled a drone attack in the Moscow region involving 2 Moldovans. In their press release, the FSB alleges a complex plot involving 35 drones transported from Slovakia hidden in crates of Spanish ceramic tiles. The alleged plot is complicated, and improbably involves Ukrainian Rapper “Kyivstoner.” The FSB alleges that 2 Moldovans, Victor Pîrlog (born in 1986) and Aurel Calos (born in 1995) participated in the plot and escaped. They claim that all 35 drones were launched but were intercepted by special technology before hitting their targets2. None of this has been confirmed and Moldova’s Ministry of Foriegn Affairs has requested clarification.

• On Monday July 13 a Russian Shahed-136 (Geran-2) drone crashed in the village of Copanca in Căușeni. The Army confirmed that the drone entered Moldovan airspace during a large Russian attack on Odesa. On impact, the drone’s gas tank exploded, causing alarm the crash site was less than 50m from a residential house. When police and army sappers arrived they found that the 40 kg warhead had not detonated. PAS MP Artemie Cătănoi went to the scene and told the press that the elderly couple living nearby were evacuated with their pets. Army sappers successfully moved the drone to a safe place and detonated it. This all resulted in official protests and the summoning of Russian Ambassador Designate Oleg Ozerov to the Ministry of Foriegn Affairs for his 3rd note of reprimand in 4 months.

• On the same day, the Council of the European Union announced €120 million euros in new assistance under the European Peace Facility (EPF) for Moldova. These funds are for the purchase of air defense equipment, with a focus on medium range air defense. This brings total EPF support for Moldova to €317 million since the start of the full scale invasion, with past financing going to clean up Nistru river pollution,3 support Army sappers with disposing of new (and old WW2) shells and more.

Political Updates

Here’s a roundup of the top stories in politics (and scandal) of the week:

• PAS MP Alexandr Trubca announced that he is resigning from parliament on July 10. After previously trying to preempt a coming investigation by TV8 with a serious of facebook statements explaining his investments, the MP resigned while claiming that “Everything I said publicly remains valid.” PAS leader Igor Grosu specified that he resigned after conversation with the party faction but did not answer whether Trubca did it of his own accord. TV8 has stated that they will air their investigation on July 19, but previewed it by noting that when elected in 2021, Alexandr Trubca had a salary from a local NGO, drove a modest car and owed a substantial mortgage on his apartment. They state that he is now a “multimillionaire in real estate, with investments in Moldova and abroad” and TV8 promises “more irregularities related to the businesses of Trubca and his partners, including other PAS deputies and state dignitaries.”

• Energy prices are going up… again. As gasoline and diesel begin to rise again on news of renewed war between the United States and Iran, Energocom has requested that regulators at ANRE approve a jump in the price of natural gas from 14.42 lei / cubic meter to 20.93 lei (incl VAT) - a 45% increase. Acting Energy Minister Dorin Jungietu supported the change, noting that it is caused by the ongoing war against Iran and the spike in prices across Europe’s energy market. Energy expert Eugen Muravschi from WatchDog called the planned change “realistic” stating that previous projections for gas purchases from August - December were €404 / 1000 cubic meters. The price is currently at €623 / 1000 cubes. He explained that “In Europe, prices have exploded” and that as countries stockpile gas they may continue to rise.

Following this announcement from PAS, Tofan posted on facebook writing:

“The Republic of Moldova has had many remarkable victories in recent years, and now we have the historic chance to become an EU state and to build a European and free future for our country and for all our children. This success depends on all of us - it was from this perspective that I accepted with great responsibility the candidacy for the position of prime minister proposed by PAS.

I understand the gravity of the moment, but also the real perspective of taking Moldova where it should have been 20 years ago. We have no right to miss this historic opportunity. I will devote all my energy, all that I have learned and know to make the country succeed and meet the expectations of its citizens.”

This morning President Sandu officially nominated Vasile Tofan as candidate for prime minister. At the event Tofan spoke saying:

“It is a great honor to be here. I do not see it as an achievement, it is a great responsibility, I am overwhelmed by this responsibility. I will do everything in my power to live up to the expectations of Moldovans. I look forward to getting to work as quickly as possible, to make the lives of Moldovans better,”

In his remarks he outlined 3 major priorities for his government as follows:

1. Restoring, building and strengthening trust: “Many people are disappointed. I will rebuild that trust by acting boldly and carrying out reforms.”

2. Restarting the economy: “We cannot improve people’s lives unless we restart the economy, and that work must happen on the ground. From my very first days, I will focus on restoring optimism among entrepreneurs. We need to bring that optimism back, so that people once again have a sparkle in their eyes.”

3. Politics, government and business are team sports: “None of this can be achieved alone. I am a team player, and I am coming in to build strong teams together. Everyone who is honest, courageous and hardworking will have an ally in me. Everything we do will be aimed at bringing Moldova into the European Union as soon as possible.”

Who is Vasile Tofan?

Vasile Tofan has an MBA from Harvard Business School and a Masters in Public Administration from Erasmus University Rotterdam. He’s had a long career in the private sector, working as a consultant for Monitor Deloitte, as a manager for Corporate Strategy and Alliances at Philips and now in a leadership role at Horizon Capital which he joined in 2012. There, as a Senior Partner on the Investment Committee he led Horizon’s investments in Purcari Winery, the Glass Container Company in Chisinau and Moldova Agroindbank (MAIB). He serves on the board of MAIB, Ukrainian IT company Intellias, AMCHAM Moldova, Startup Moldova and Media Alternative which owns TV8 and 1TV.

In addition to his business career, Tofan has been a consistent public advocate for economic reform. He is a co-founder of the Europa 2028 civic movement which brought together 28 economists, entrepreneurs and investors who are “united by the idea that Moldova can make an economic leap if we follow simple and effective steps, already tested by other small countries such as Estonia, Ireland, Singapore or New Zealand. The economy must dominate the political agenda.” The movement’s manifesto centers European accession by 2028 and the need for sweeping economic reforms to ensure that Moldova takes advantage of European integration and Moldovan companies are competitive within the bloc.

Following the 2025 parliamentary elections, Tofan was offered the role as prime minister but turned it down saying that he was unable to untangle himself from his corporate responsibilities and that no one should be wiling to entrust “the future of Moldova to a leader ready to abandon 22 companies and a team of over 51 thousand people”.

He is seen as close to former Prime Minister Munteanu and is alleged to have put his name forward when he turned down the role himself.

Analysis: What does this Appointment Signal?

Read more

This change was accepted and signed in a decree by President Sandu without comment. Interim Prime Minister Osmochescu then posted on facebook saying that he “accepted this responsibility with honor and full seriousness” and stating that his priority will be to ensure continuity in this period.

This unexpected switch came after days of confusion following Munteanu’s first resignation where he stated that he can no longer work according to his “principles and beliefs.” Asked what this meant by a journalist, he gave a confusing answer stating:

“(…) I understand that they expect a controversy. I tried not to look at social networks, but with one eye and from what those who looked told me, 90% of those scenarios that were circulated are not true. It’s a more complicated story. I think time will put things in order (…). My conscience is very clear, I did what I had to do, and now I continue my duty, as I said in my message. I will ensure a smooth, professional transition, we are in the process of European integration, we cannot afford to create controversial situations (…)”,

**Update: Immediately before publishing PAS leader Igor Grosu stated that Alexandru Munteanu's was in fact due to an heated discussion he had with Minister of Education Dan Perciun. Grosu stated:

“There were no discussions about the weather outside. There were discussions about policy. Yes, there was a topic related to fiscal policy - the way it was presented, the way responsibility for it was assumed, and the contradictory discussions that followed.”

President Sandu announced on July 9 that she had called all parliamentary factions to consultations on the appointment of the next prime minister. She will meet with opposition parties on Friday July 10 and with PAS on Saturday July 11. The Socialists, MAN and the Communists have all stated that they will boycott the consultations.

New Details in the MoldATSA Scandal

If you need to catch up - here are parts 1 & 2 of Moldova Matter’s coverage of MoldATSA:

On June 30 the National Anti-Corruption Center (CNA) announced preliminary results from their assessment of the institutional integrity of the company MoldATSA. This assessment found that 33 employees were hired without a publicly announced competitive process, multiple employees maintained 2-3 paid positions at the company for long periods of time, arbitrary salary and bonus structures and other “significant deficiencies” in the recruiting and hiring process.

They also identified problems in the professional trainings purchased for staff. MoldATSA is a member of the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (Eurocontrol). This entitled employees to attend professional trainings from Eurocontrol for free - with MoldATSA only paying for travel and lodging.

But MoldATSA management, including then Director Dumitru Vangheli, regularly attended courses by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). These were much more expensive, with course + travel costing between 80,000 and 120,000 lei / person compared to 25,000 - 40,000 from Eurocontrol. Most troubling of all, Dumitru Vangheli traveled to 3 courses on the same topic in 2025 and in one case attended an IATA course in Singapore that was held 2 months before Eurocontrol held an identical course (for free) in Chisinau.

On July 5 the CNA updated their assessment with allegations of a possible deliberate fragmentation of public procurements from MoldATSA. By statute, the company needed to approve any purchase over 400,000 lei with their owner - the Public Property Agency (APP). Additional procurements must go through a public bid process unless they are very minor. CNA reported on the purchase of a 2 million lei security system that was broken into 14 separate contracts given to 3 companies. Many of these contracts were made on the same day and the CNA reported that 2 of the companies have the same beneficial owner.

Criminal investigations at MoldATSA are ongoing.

Political Fallout and Reactions

On July 1 President Sandu held a press conference to address the expanding scandal at MoldATSA. There she called for 5 immediate actions to be taken by the government:

1. Review how appointments are made to state companies and require SIS and CNA checks for candidates

2. Review all boards of directors, ban people from serving on multiple boards, recalibrate / regulate pay

3. Creating a plan for listing “minority stakes” in all state owned companies on the stock exchange to bring more transparency and international standards to their governance

4. Mandate annual publications of company reports, remuneration reports, external audit reports, etc

5. Break the APP into 2 parts - one to manage active investments (productive companies) and one to manage passive assets - such as land and the property of former state companies in liquidation

In the short term she called for a rigorous audit of all state owned companies and for people guilty of abuses to be held accountable “regardless of party, family or other ties.”

She also called on a review of all consulting contracts for government support staff hired by international partners. She stated:

“We will do a general clean-up, all those who broke the law will be punished. People from PAS should look around, make sure that all team members, at all levels, are still loyal to the values ​​that were the basis for the creation of the party of European values. We have an obligation to take the Republic of Moldova to the EU. It is too important a path and we have made too many efforts on this path to miss it. We need to clean up the institutions, especially among the leaders of these institutions, and restore people’s trust in our commitment to building a fair state and a free and European country,”

Asked about her cousin Anastasia Tăburceanu she stated:

“I can’t understand what happened in the case of Anastasia Taburceanu, I don’t recognize her, I can’t explain these things to myself. Unfortunately, in every family or almost every family there is a person who makes a joke that gives you a headache. I regret this. (…) I have always earned my honest salary and this was my message to everyone, including those in the family”

PAS Expels 4 Party Members

Party leader Igor Grosu apologized to citizens for the scandal at MoldATSA and called the ZdG investigation a “hard lesson.” He announced the expulsion of 4 members of PAS - Anastasia Taburceanu, Mihai Bondari, Petru Bondari and Lilia Coică. He also demanded that Petru Bondari resign as the director of the state enterprise Metalferos.

While Anastasia Taburceanu was clearly caught up in the MoldATSA scandal, the other 3 members expelled were related to a different scandal that has slowly unfolded in the town of Coșnița over the last year. This scandal, which we have not covered at Moldova Matters previously (see footnote1), involved a company owned (allegedly) by Petru and Mihai Bondari which purchased agricultural land by the entrance to the town and then re-zoned it for pit mining sand. The scandal is complex, and contested, but apparently PAS decided that it was time to take action as both of the Bondari brothers were involved in district level politics.

Petru Bondari resigned as the director of Metalferos, but denied wrongdoing and claimed that he sold the company implicated in the mining development in 2024. He was not accused of any wrongdoing at the state enterprise, but chose to heed Grosu’s call for his resignation.

Igor Grosu promised additional steps to win back trust saying:

“I know that anything we say now will be met with distrust and people’s revolt is natural. I understand that words are less credible and actions are needed to demonstrate that we have not deviated from the principles of integrity, fairness and honesty. And that is what we will do,”

More scandals and responses… and scandals…

Here’s a roundup of the latest scandals to rock the government and the responses taken to try and contain the growing crisis:

• NEW SCANDAL: On July 2 CNA officers detained Tatiana Nistorică, State Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture. On the same day they conducted searches at the ministry and detained a representative of a private company. Allegedly the company was trying to import animal feed from Ukraine but had been blocked by the National Food Safety Agency (ANSA) due to “irregularities found during the inspections carried out.” According to the CNA, the company bribed Tatiana Nistorică to resume imports. Nistorică had only been appointed State Secretary in February and previously had a series of highly respected roles in civil society - including as the President of the “Moldova Organic Agriculture Value Chain Alliance” (MOVCA). She is currently in pre-trial detention in Prison 13. Minister of Agriculture Ludmila Catlabuga has stated that the ministry is cooperating and is in the process of dismissing her.

• Parliament has created a Commission of Inquiry into the activities of state owned enterprises. The commission will have a mandate to investigate management and remuneration at these companies and will return to parliament with a report and set of recommendations in 60 days. The commission will consist of 11 members and be led by MP Dinu Plîngău2. In addition to Plîngău, the commission will include 5 additional PAS MPs - Vasile Grădinaru, Marcel Spatari, Victoria Belous, Alexandr Trubca and Marina Morozova. Opposition parties will each appoint 1 MP to the commission. This composition includes senior PAS members and a fairly independent chair signaling a strong process… but then…

• NEW SCANDAL: MP Alexandr Trubca and his “million-dollar investments.” TV8’s program Black Box is promising us information as to what those investments are on their Sunday broadcast. In order to pre-empt whatever this story is, Alexandr Trubca has put out a series of long facebook posts explaining a complex land deal he is involved in. The land is in the Chisinau suburb of Trușeni and Trubca claims that his company purchased this land but he is not actively involved in the business nor is he involved in any local council decisions around construction permitting. Then, we find that the former (as in resigned last week due to MoldATSA) director of the Public Property Agency (APP) also has a company that is also somehow involved in this land deal. Both men deny actively developing a business while in public office and both deny collaborating together on this development project - in which they (apparently) co-own land. We’ll have to wait until Sunday to find out more.

• Where were the whistleblowers? Last week we wrote about how former MoldATSA director Dumitru Vangheli’s friend in Canada knew that he had faked his CV, confronted him about it, (maybe?) used it to try and push Vangheli to repay a debt, and then just told no one about it until after the story broke. Now we found that Dumitru Vangheli’s brother, Anatoliy Vanheli, is a career diplomat and is currently serving as Moldova’s Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Apparently the fact that Moldova’s air traffic control system was being run by a pizza delivery driver was known to at least one public official.

• Anastasia Tăburceanu has returned 500,000 lei of her MoldATSA salary. This was announced on July 9 by Igor Grosu who noted that she will continue until it is fully paid back.

New Tactic - Blame Plahotniuc

On July 9 PAS leader Igor Grosu made a statement trying to put all of these unfolding scandals into context - the context of a deliberate campaign by Vladimir Plahotniuc. He stated:

“Beyond all these incidents, my preliminary conclusion: it is a campaign, the traces of this campaign lead to a cell at Penitentiary No. 13 ,”

This was echoed by Minister of Education Dan Perciun who wrote on facebook:

“It is obvious that we are witnessing a concerted attack from the oligarchic-criminal groups that have been hit hard in recent years, but which have nevertheless maintained their tentacles in Parliament, in the area of ​​influencers and through certain “press” portals. (…) If he loses on appeal, Plahotniuc will actually end up in the situation of serving hard years in prison. (…) The examination of the appeal begins on August 24. Until then, the goal is to completely discredit the government and send a signal of vulnerability to the judicial system: the power is wavering, are you sure you want to convict the capo di tutti i capi? This is the feeling of chaos that the criminal groups are trying to induce”

A few hours later Grosu apologized “to all honest journalists and the independent press” and thanked journalists for investigations that hold the government accountable. At the same time, he continued to accuse oligarchs “Plahotniuc, Platon, Shor” of amplifying these scandals to create “hate” in society.

I’ll leave my quick thoughts on this tactic in a footnote for those who are interested3.

Other News

The prime minister’s resignation (twice?) and the many unfolding scandals has mostly taken over the news cycle. Here’s a quick roundup of the other stories worth watching from the past week:

• On July 6 Moldova marked the “Day of Commemoration of the Victims of Deportations and Repressions of the Totalitarian Communist Regime” and the 85th anniversary of the Stalinist deportations. Unfortunately, the event was overshadowed by a protocol error whereby the announcer forgot to mention Interim Prime Minister Munteanu while introducing the President and Speaker of Parliament. Over the month of June more than 20,000 people visited the memorial train cars in Chisinau and Balti. If you’d like to know more about the history behind this event see this article by Cathy Byrd published by Moldova Matters last year:

• Completion of the Vulcănești - Chișinău “Independence Line” has been delayed again. Last year Prime Minister Recean promised the line would be in service in December 2025 in time for winter. Then it was delayed until June 2026. Now, it has been pushed back again until December 31, 2026. This was announced by the World Bank which is financing the project and said that “the estimated completion date was severely delayed by the contractor” - referring specifically to the contractor building out the Chisinau high-voltage substation. Overall work on the project has been rated “satisfactory” by the World Bank which announced a firm plan for completion with the contractor and a savings of $4 million dollars off the planned amount.

• TV8 Investigation - “Inhuman living conditions for more than 80 workers from Bangladesh and Nepal, employed in Moldova.” The investigation showed how up to 100 foreign workers were being housed in 8 sleeper train wagons that had been relocated onto the grounds of a factory in Chisinau. The company, which manufactures windows, argues that the living conditions are adequate, but a previous inspection by the General Inspectorate for Migration from July 2025 found that “foreign workers employed by these companies were housed in precarious and totally inadequate living conditions, especially in disused train carriages.” Following TV8’s investigation inspectors promised to return and do a repeat inspection.

• Roma Baron Artur Cerari passed away on July 4. His death caused an outpouring of support and warm messages on social media for the man who was the leader of Soroca’s Roma community since 1998. The title of Baron is expected to pass to one of his children.

• Moldova celebrates American Independence Day. On July 4 the Moldovan parliament was lit up with the American flag as was the Triumphal Arch. Fireworks were organized in the city center as well. Speaker of Parliament Igor Grosu praised the partnership with the US writing:

“Step by step, we have built roads, modernized schools and kindergartens, expanded access to water and sanitation, and taken important steps to strengthen our energy independence and democratic institutions. For the Republic of Moldova, the United States is a trusted friend, standing by us when we need it most ,”

“Today I end my term as prime minister.

I accepted the proposal to be prime minister with a lot of responsibility and strong conviction that I can contribute to changing things for the better.

The moment I understand that I can no longer exercise my mandate in accordance with my principles and beliefs, I choose to walk away.

I thank all my colleagues - ministers, their teams and the people who worked professionally and faithfully.

I will continue to serve my country from whatever position I may find myself, irrespective of where I live or what responsibilities I may have, either in the public sector or private. I believe that duty to the country is not about a position, but about the commitment we keep.

Thank you!”

Emphasis mine.

This move came without warning and with no explanation beyond the cryptic allusion to his inability to “exercise my mandate in accordance with my principles and beliefs.”

His resignation triggers the collapse of the Munteanu government which came into office on October 31, 2025. In his 8 months leading the government, Alexandru Munteanu has remained a bit of a cipher. His team projected an image of quiet professionalism, rejecting normal public communications1 and largely avoiding any big announcements on reforms or legislative projects.

This public perception has come under increasing strain over the last few weeks against the backdrop of the MoldATSA scandal and the public backlash against the proposed tax reforms.

President Sandu’s Press Conference

Following the Prime Minister’s facebook post, President Sandu called a press conference for 11 am this morning. At the press conference she thanked the Prime Minister for his service and then immediately sought to debunk rumors about his departure saying:

“The speculation that ‘he wanted to fight against abuses and was not allowed’ is false. The Prime Minister had a free hand to lead the Government as he considered correct. He chose to leave,”

This was apparently in response to narratives circulating on Telegram stating that President Sandu gave the Prime Minister a list of “untouchables” in PAS who he was not permitted to remove - even in cases of corruption.

The President stated that “Mr. Munteanu is a good man” and that…

“I was convinced and I am still convinced that he has the best intentions, but I expected more involvement in complicated decisions, more presence to listen to people, to explain what kind of reforms we need to make and why we need to make them.”

Asked by the press what contradiction caused the Prime Minister to resign rather than compromise his beliefs, she stated:

“I don’t think there were any contradictions, at least these things were not expressed and exposed. Both Mr. Munteanu and I have worked and are working with honesty and integrity. (…) This week I had several discussions with the Prime Minister about the reforms that have aroused a lot of debate in society, especially the tax reform, but also the salary reform. I also believe that these reforms could have been developed, consulted on and explained better, so that we could obtain the support of citizens,”

She went on to state that there was no conflict with the Prime Minister on the topic of the fight against corruption or on the plans to restructure and reform governance of state companies. She stated:

“There was only one objection related to the interpersonal relationship with one of the members of the Government, there was a discussion about the interpersonal relationship with the Minister of Education,”

A reporter followed up asking if Minister of Education Dan Perciun could be a candidate for prime minister. President Sandu refused to comment, noting that constitutionally the next step is consultations with the parliamentary factions. She stated that during the process of identifying a new candidate for prime minister, Munteanu would stay on in a caretaker role.

What Happened With Dan Perciun?

Following President Sandu’s statements, Minister of Education Dan Perciun confirmed that he had a discussion with the Prime Minister on Tuesday saying:

"It is true, indeed, that I had a discussion on Tuesday with the Prime Minister, during which I expressed my thoughts on the subject of budgetary-fiscal policy, on how certain things that were not fully discussed in the Government were found in that policy and sparked very heated discontent in our society,"

He went on to state that discussions like this are necessary and useful and seemed to reject the idea that it contributed to the PM’s resignation. About his future ambitions he emphasized his desire to stay on as Minister of Education and continue developing reforms there.

What Comes Next?

While various opposition politicians have called for early elections, that is almost certainly not going to happen. President Sandu will begin consultations with the parliamentary factions next week and PAS, representing the majority, will have to agree on a candidate. This new candidate will need to form a new team of ministers and prepare a program of government for a vote of confidence in parliament.

How long this takes is a bit of an open question. Back in February 2023 Prime Minister Gavrilita resigned2 and her successor was named the same day. Within 6 days, parliament had voted in the new government of Dorin Recean. This situation had been building over some time and the actual switch of governments was a relatively stage-managed process.

President Sandu announced that she would start consultations with parliamentary factions next week. Prime Minister Munteanu’s resignation was, by all appearances, more unexpected, so most likely time is needed to identify a replacement.

If PAS identifies a unifying candidate over the weekend or early next week, then a new government could be sworn in relatively quickly. On the other hand, if there are divisions in the party and multiple candidates are angling for the position, this could be a more protracted process.

In the meantime, the outgoing Prime Minister acts in an interim capacity. The caretaker government has substantially limited powers and until a new PM is sworn in they cannot initiate or approve legislative initiatives3.

Analysis: Why Now?

Right now we don’t have any satisfying answer to that most important question. The morning’s events give the impression of an unexpected change but for the moment we don’t know anything concrete.

President Sandu’s remarks are telling however. She seemed to acknowledge that Munteanu’s technocratic, low-visibility approach had failed to build public support for the government’s agenda. They also showed at least some disappointment from her end on his engagement with the issues.

From my perspective, it has been very hard to get any real idea of what that agenda has been for the last 8 months. Over time, this has been chalked up by some to failures of communication. The disastrous rollout of the proposed tax reform showed it was something much more fundamental. Ministries were fighting in public and it became clear that highly consequential reforms had not gone through even the most basic coordination process. In the middle of this national argument about tax reform came scandal after scandal related to MoldATSA and the management of state-owned companies. Through it all, Prime Minister Munteanu was largely absent.

The role of the PM’s conflict with Minister Perciun remains unclear, but Perciun’s remarks on this “discussion” seem to imply that the tax reform was creating rifts in the government behind the scenes. Stepping back, the scandals at MoldATSA largely predate this government - with the key appointments made before he took office. The tax reform on the other hand is a political disaster more directly attributable to his decisions - either proactively or due to an overly hands-off approach.

Perhaps, Munteanu concluded that this job is not for him and it is time to give someone else a chance. Perhaps President Sandu, PAS or some subset of his ministers lost confidence in his leadership and encouraged him to resign. Perhaps there is another shoe yet to drop - either in the alluded-to conflict with Minister of Education Dan Perciun or with some new information related to the ongoing scandals at state-owned companies.

Right now we simply don’t know.

Last week I wrote 2 articles on the Ministry of Finance’s proposal to overhaul the tax system. If you didn’t catch them, you can find those articles here:

Since writing those article, Minister of Finance Andrian Gavrilită has been in a fighting retreat as pressure has built and parts of the proposed reform are abandoned one by one. On June 26 President Sandu called on the government to “take a break” regarding the tax reform saying:

"The tax reform must be done, but I think the Government should not rush. It must take a break, analyze the comments very well."

She called on the government to incorporate feedback and carefully analyze some of the most controversial elements such as VAT increases.

On June 28 opposition parties gathered a protest in front of parliament organized by PPDA MP Vasile Costiuc. Around 200 people attended, including senior members of multiple opposition parties including MAN, Our Party, PSDE and PPDA. Criticism came from many angles but mostly focused on the proposal to increase VAT on energy.

At the same time, government spokesperson Daniela Crudu announced that the reform is no longer moving forward saying:

“We have heard the various opinions and listened to the people. We have already announced that we are taking a break to rethink fiscal policy and the other proposed measures. In the coming period, we will review the proposals and continue extensive consultations, to identify a fair and sustainable formula for citizens and the economic environment,”

In an interview with ZdG defending the reform, Minister Gavrilită continued to stress that prices would not go up for “ordinary people” and explained that they are backtracking on aspects of the bill - either canceling provisions or extending the implementation timeline. In the interview he was asked how it was that the Minister of Health, who has stated that “This reform will destroy the healthcare system,” was not consulted prior to the bill being released to the public. The Minister replied that it was not consulted with the other ministries beforehand because there was no time.

Asked about the rush, Minister Gavrilită stated that he wanted to start consultations in March but they were delayed until the completion of a visit from the IMF. He stated that because of this delay, “only at the end of May did we agree on the principles and direction of reducing the budget deficit in a few years, so that we would have medium-term economic stability.” Asked if the reforms themselves were driven by the IMF he stated:

“The reform itself is not imposed, but the need to reduce the budget deficit and stabilize the state’s financial degeneration is a condition [of the IMF]”

Later, in another interview Minister Gavrilită stated that wage increases for public sector workers planned for September may need to be delayed without the tax law. He said that it was an IMF condition that new revenue would need to be found before raising salaries.

So, we now know that at least some aspects of the rushed nature of the reform was caused by the IMF. We also know that this huge reform was rolled out without serious consultation with other ministries1. This type of coordination would normally be managed by the Prime Minister - but he has still not made any substantive statements on this topic.

Where does the reform stand?

As of today, here is what we know about the planned changes. In the interest of keeping the main text tight, I’ll add some quick analysis in footnotes.

• Plans to tax wedding and birthday gifts will not be implemented2.

• No capital gains tax will be applied to the sale of primary residences. All other changes to capital gains tax and VAT for new housing will be delayed until 2028.

• HoReCa VAT will still go from 8% to 20% in October. VAT on food and agricultural products remains unclear and the ministry says that they are still considering what to do3.

• VAT for electricity, heating and natural gas will still go up in April 2027 after the heating season4.

• 0% tax on reinvested profits for large companies will be delayed (no date).

• No VAT hike on medicines

• Changes in salary taxes and structure will be delayed until 2028

This is still a moving target - the reform as it was proposed is falling apart in just about every direction.

MoldATSA Updates

The MoldATSA scandal continues to develop since I sent the latest update yesterday. Here is the latest:

• Anastasia Taburceanu’s work for the State Chancellory was funded by the EU. This was confirmed by the EU Delegation who stated that she was contracted under a project called “Reform Support Team” implemented by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The EU Delegation confirmed that she was contracted to “provided communication support to the State Chancellery and the Prime Minister’s Office” and that she resigned in June 2026. They stated that “The EBRD is evaluating the implementation of this contract. The Commission awaits the results of this evaluation to decide whether additional measures are necessary.” The confirmation came after the leader of the Moldovan National Party (PNM) Dragoș Galbur publicly alleged that Taburceanu was being paid €4,000 a month by the EU for her work at the State Chancellery. This would be in addition to her salary from MoldATSA. Galbur also alleges that she lives in Slovenia. Neither the sum nor details about where Anastasia Taburceanu lives have been independently confirmed.

• The Director of the Public Property Agency (APP), Roman Cojuhari, has resigned. He accepted that “The Public Property Agency is the institution responsible for monitoring the activity of Moldatsa” and stated that he was resigning due to the failures at the agency in this case and “to protect the image of the institution and the team.”

• The National Anti-Corruption Center (CNA) have opened a criminal investigation and are conducting searches at MoldATSA today. The case is opened under articles related to abuse of power and abuse of office.

PAS party leaders have started to make public statements about the scandal and especially about the resignation of Radu Marian. Minister of Education and Vice-President of the PAS Party, Dan Perciun, called the situation at MoldATSA “systemic error, a failure to react on time and to adequately investigate the incoming signals.” He stated that “People’s anger is understandable and perfectly justified” and that “There is a need for a course correction both in the party and in the administration of the state.” Additionally, he and others have praise Radu Marian’s personal integrity and his decision to step down and take responsibility for a mistake.

That last part may seem like a positive spin on a politically disastrous situation, but it has some merit. Journalist Mariana Rata of TV8 wrote a post marking just how new and important it is that this investigation is having serious impact. She wrote:

“Four resignations!!! I can’t remember a single time in the history of the Republic of Moldova when a media investigation has led to four resignations.

I’ve written hundreds of investigative reports over my career, from 2007 to 2026, under every government during that period, but I’ve never seen this many resignations follow a press scandal. And that makes me happy.

It means we are living in a different kind of state now—a state where those in power are beginning to understand that they must answer to the people when they are caught doing something wrong. Because in a democratic state, power belongs to the citizens. You cannot lie to them, and you should not risk disappointing them.”

(…)

🚿 This summer has brought a cold shower for the government. I hope it turns out to be a cleansing and revitalizing one. We want to be in the EU by 2030!”

She went on to call for the next resignation to be that of Constantine Batin from Expo Business Chisinau. Batin was the subject of TV8’s recent investigation who bluntly rejected the idea that just because someone was under sanctions as a Russian arms trafficker he (Batin) should not do business with them.

Disinformation and (Dis)Union

Last week Moldova’s internet lit up with a new story - Romania’s lower house “tacitly adopted” a bill on the unification with Moldova. The story on social media was that Romania unilaterally approved union, and Moldova’s pro-Kremlin politicians quickly made statements:

Igor Dodon called it a sign of Romanian imperialism:

“it is regrettable that politicians in Romania have launched such an imperialist policy, which risks quarreling both countries. And it is shameful that politicians in the leadership of Moldova are silent or tacitly approve Romanian territorial expansionism”

Mayor Ion Ceban chose to blame PAS (insinuating they are behind the effort):

“We condemn any attempt to attack the values ​​enshrined in the Constitution of our country. (…) We do not sell our country and condemn any statement by politicians in the context of the destruction of the country. The people are the only ones who decide. PAS’s actions are increasingly obvious. Their goal is to do everything, through the actions they take, to reach a situation in which Moldova is a failed state.”

Russian Foriegn Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova:

"It's no secret that Bucharest is hatching plans to take over Moldova. This isn't news to us; we talk about it constantly. Now this situation has taken a turn for the worse,"

She went on to talk about how scandalous it was that no referendum was planned, etc.

To unpack this, we need to clarify 2 key points:

1) What is “tacit adoption” of a bill?

Under the Romanian constitution multiple entities have legislative initiative - including parliament, the government and even citizens (via a petition with enough signatures). They can all propose legislation which then goes to parliament which is split into an upper and lower house - called the Senate and Chamber of Deputies respectively. Each bill starts in one chamber, which considers the bill before passing it to the other chamber for a decision. Who is the first considerer and who is a decision maker depends on the topic. This setup leaves open the possibility of a “pocket veto” - aka one chamber simply choosing to ignore a bill and therefore killing it. To prevent this, and to encourage speed, any bill not voted up or down in 45 days is considered “tacitly adopted” by the first chamber and moved to the one that makes the decision.

The bill in question wasn’t remotely serious and was put in the stack of unserious proposals5. From there it was never debated or voted on and was therefore tacitly adopted by the lower house after 45 days. It then goes to the Senate who has no obligation to pick it up and therefore it will die there in a drawer somewhere.

2) Where did this bill come from?

This bill was proposed by the SOS Romania party which is led by Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Diana Șoșoacă. This is her last month:

This is therefore a great example of an information warfare campaign. The Kremlin asked its proxy party in Romania to introduce nonsense legislation. They did, and now the Kremlin has spun up a HUGE messaging campaign attacking the legislation they produced and trying to pin it on PAS and the Romanian government6.

President Sandu reacted to questions about the bill saying:

“This is a document proposed by a Moscow agent, whose goal is to discredit the idea of ​​unification, and nothing more. It would be as if I came to parliament tomorrow with a legislative initiative to annex France to Moldova. Please, government, implement it. Unification isn’t happening that way, we all understand that perfectly well,”

Other Shor & Hybrid War Updates

Here are the other top stories in hybrid warfare and security news of the week:

• Moldova detained a Russian FSB officer. The alleged spy entered the country without diplomatic credentials, allegedly to visit monasteries and other touristic sites. In reality he was heading to Transnistria to collect information in the Security Zone according to the Security and Intelligence Service SIS. He is currently being held under 30 days preventative detention.

• President Sandu stripped Belarusian spy Alexandru Balan of his Moldovan citizenship. Recall, Balan was part of the April prisoner exchange with Belarus and Russia. RFE/RL also released a story this week alleging that Balan knew the names and identities of at least 7 Romanian undercover agents that he passed to Belarus. They also detailed the tradecraft he used to communicate with his handlers and how he was eventually uncovered.

• Flyone airline must be sold to new owners. That was the decision of the Council for the Examination of Investments of Importance for State Security (CEIISS) last week, who ruled that the airline needed to change owners in the next 90 days. The decision noted the proximity of the beneficial owners to sanctioned individuals. The airline is owned by Vladimir Cebotari who has been identified by SIS as a close associate of Vladimir Plahotniuc.

EU Accession Updates

We have a new section at Moldova Matters! For some time I’ve mostly put EU accession stories in the bucket of “international affairs.” That no longer fits neatly as the opening of negotiating clusters starts literally intertwining European and Moldovan law. So we’re going to try out a new section here and see how well it makes sense. Here’s an roundup of the top EU Accession stories of the last week:

• Hungary has put the breaks on opening new negotiating clusters. Prime Minister Péter Magyar has signaled publicly and privately that he opposes any fast track accession process for Ukraine, saying that it sends the wrong message to the Western Balkans7. The EU still hopes to open 2 more clusters this summer - Cluster 6: “external relations” and Cluster 2: “internal market.” Others could gradually reopen after. Romanian President Nicușor Dan explained what happened behind closed doors saying:

“Obviously, we would have liked this phrase [“accelerated process”] to remain, with regard to Moldova, but there were two conditions. There was a condition from Hungary, which said: “I don’t want this phrase for Ukraine” and a condition from many other states that said that “the language of Ukraine and the language of Moldova must remain the same”. And as a logical consequence, the language disappeared from both. It is a diplomatic moment, there are no practical consequences”

• The second Moldova-European Union Summit was held on June 22. The high level dialogue came with some announcements. The EU is preparing a €120 million euro package for the security sector in Moldova. An additional €11 million will be provided to strengthen Moldova against hybrid attacks and €17 million on border security initiatives. Additionally discussions on collaborating to build a med-tech cluster and other joint research initiatives have been initiated. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that Moldova was 93% of the way through its commitments under the growth plan and if it finishes the remaining 7% could unlock an additional €503 million under this mechanism.

• EU is drawing up “gradual integration” plans. This was reported by Politico following both France and Germany circulating “membership lite” proposals and a general rejection of the “reverse enlargement” plan promoted by Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos. The plan would reportedly grant EU membership benefits step by step as countries hit certain benchmarks. The article noted how something similar was already going on with Moldova’s integration into the EU mobile roaming space, cultural support programs and Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA). Ukraine and Montenegro have both indicated opposition to this piecemeal approach.

PM Munteanu Fires the Control Unit

On June 24 Prime Minister Munteanu announced that he would be firing the 2 members of the Control Unit - an unofficial advisory body to the Prime Minister that tracks the delivery and implementation of government decisions and the tasks given to the ministries. Both members, Vasile Bolduratu and Angela Rojcov-Ciofu, had been appointed under Prime Minister Recean in 2023. Announcing the decision he stated:

"The standards of professionalism, institutional loyalty and integrity must be higher than anywhere else. Following the assessments and information analyzed in the recent period, I have come to the conclusion that the activity and composition of the Control Unit no longer benefit from the necessary trust to exercise this function. I announce to you that the members of the Control Unit resigned from their positions this morning. Public functions are not a privilege, they imply responsibility, and when the necessary trust to exercise a function is lost, the right decision is to make changes. And that is what we will do",

No clarifications were made as to what “assessments” of “information” preceded this move and this was not in response to any public reporting about either person8.

Following the announcement, ZdG analyzed their asset and income declarations and found that each advisor earned a salary of around 44,000 lei / month. However, they each served on a number of boards of state enterprises where they got additional renumeration. Specifically:

• Vasile Bolduratu - board member of the Thermoelectric Company (central heat and power company), National Lottery, State Enterprise "Radiocomunicații” (broadcasting infrastructure), Cartuș (defense manufacturer), Chisinau Glass Factory and the Costești Hydroelectric Company

• Rojcov-Ciofu - board member of the Chisinau International Airport, Moldova Post, Cricova Winery, and MoldExpo center

Vasile Bolduratu was earning around 500,000 additional lei per year from his board places while Rojcov-Ciofu was earning around 300,000.

No more information has been made available as to why the firings happened now, but the timing is important. The Prime Minister made this announcement just as the government was starting to grapple with the MoldATSA scandal - which itself has highlighted the serious problems with how state owned companies’ boards are comprised.

Keep Cool Out There!

Moldova is facing the first heat wave of the year. From Jue 30 - July 1 the North of the country is under Code Orange (temperature highs of 36-38 C) while the Center and South of the country is in Code Red (39-41 C). The General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (IGSU) has begun installing rehydration tents in multiple districts as a resource for those who overheat while walking in the city. The National Road Administration has also issued reminders that under Yellow, Orange or Red codes trucks over 12 tons are banned from driving on roads between 10 am and 8 pm9.

The Power Lines Have Names Now

… and they’re making progress!

On June 18 Chargé d’Affaires of the US Embassy Nick Pietrowicz presented Prime Minister Munteanu with the completed feasibility study for the Strășeni–Gutinaș 400 kV high voltage line. This line, which will be fully financed with support of the United States, is now called the “Liberty Line.”

On June 26 Moldelectrica signed a contract with the Turkish company SA-RA which won a tender to construct 45 km of the new 400 kV Balți–Suceava power line. When announcing this, Minister of Energy Dorin Junghietu announced the names for all 3 lines as follows:

1. Vulcănești–Chișinău “Energy Independence Line” (scheduled completion December 2025, expected Summer 2026)

2. Strașeni–Gutinaș “Liberty Line” (feasibility study done, completion planned around 2030)

3. Balți–Suceava “Resilience Line” (construction planned over the next 24 months)

So we now have Independence, Liberty and Resilience connections, building and planned, connecting Moldova to Romania and the European energy grid.

That’s a positive note to end on after the craziness of the last week.